Simulation Results: Kenya Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	0.65%	154	126		18
Adam Blomme	0.12%	833	1001		129
Adri Arnaus	0.42%	238	251		42
Adrian Otaegui	0.70%	143	151		91
Albin Bergstrom	0.18%	556	326		70
Alejandro Del Rey	1.15%	87	51		56
Alex Fitzpatrick	2.11%	47	36		23
Alexander Levy	0.45%	222	251	0.10%	29	-0.1	PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	0.30%	333	376		70
Andreas Halvorsen	0.75%	133	101		34
Andres Gallegos	0.01%	10000	2501		61
Angel Ayora	4.73%	21	13		8
Angel Hidalgo	0.47%	213	151		56
Anthony Quayle	0.42%	238	126		100
Antoine Rozner	2.39%	42	41		14
Ben Schmidt	1.21%	83	81		14
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.59%	169	151		67
Bernd Wiesberger	0.52%	192	151		42
Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.30%	77	81	0.10%	70	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 75/1, 7pl, 1/5
C.J. Wangai	0.00%	10000	4001		129
Callum Tarren	0.55%	182	251	0.20%	70	-0.2	PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Calum Hill	2.92%	34	29		100
Cameron Adam	0.41%	244	326	0.10%	9	-0.1	PaddyPower: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
Casey Jarvis	2.01%	50	36		1
Celestin Nsanzuwera	0.01%	10000	4001		84
Clement Charmasson	0.19%	526	251		100
Clement Sordet	0.63%	159	251	0.20%	70	-0.2	PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Connor Mckinney	0.08%	1250	651		127
Connor Syme	0.81%	123	91		119
Dan Bradbury	2.06%	49	36		84
Dan Erickson	0.45%	222	251	0.10%	119	-0.1	PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Kiragu	0.00%	10000	4001		135
Daniel Nduva	0.00%	10000	4001		139
Daniel Rodrigues	0.39%	256	201		29
Daniel Van Tonder	0.57%	175	71		61
Daniel Young	0.47%	213	151		100
Darius Van Driel	1.11%	90	101	0.10%	114
David Law	0.28%	357	201		42
David Micheluzzi	0.61%	164	126		53
David Ravetto	0.44%	227	126		34
David Wakhu	0.00%	10000	4001		135
Davis Bryant	0.26%	385	251		2
Dismas Indiza	0.00%	10000	2001		129
Eddie Pepperell	0.67%	149	126
Edwin Mudanyi	0.00%	10000	3001		84
Euan Walker	0.10%	1000	1001		34
Ewen Ferguson	2.11%	47	36		70
Fabrizio Zanotti	0.62%	161	201	0.10%	138	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Felix Mory	0.20%	500	326		129
Filippo Celli	0.33%	303	251		70
Francesco Laporta	1.54%	65	51		4
Francis Epe	0.00%	10000	4001		142
Fred Biondi	0.17%	588	651		48
Freddy Schott	0.91%	110	81		91
Frederic Lacroix	1.31%	76	56		9
Greg Snow	0.00%	10000	2001		119
Gregorio De Leo	1.07%	93	71		23
Guido Migliozzi	1.08%	93	71		70
Hennie Du Plessis	3.82%	26	29	0.40%	3	1.2	PaddyPower: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hugo Townsend	0.31%	323	151		100
Hunter Logan	0.15%	667	401		91
Ivan Cantero	0.45%	222	176		70
J.C. Ritchie	1.25%	80	46		91
Jack Buchanan	0.07%	1429	476		84
Jack Senior	0.37%	270	326	0.10%	29	-0.1	PaddyPower: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Yule	0.03%	3333	2001		70
Jacob Skov Olesen	2.10%	48	41		5
Jacques Kruyswijk	1.65%	61	51		18
James Morrison	0.31%	323	476	0.10%	61	-0.1	PaddyPower: 475/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Scrivener	1.13%	88	126	0.30%	23	-0.3	PaddyPower: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jay Sandhu	0.00%	10000	4001		119
Jeff Winther	0.53%	189	201		42
Jens Dantorp	0.63%	159	251	0.20%	84	-0.2	PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joakim Lagergren	1.17%	85	67		23
Joe Dean	0.50%	200	201		34
Joel Girrbach	0.96%	104	81		84
John Lejirma	0.00%	10000	2001		84
Jonathan Broomhead	0.33%	303	151		124
Joost Luiten	2.90%	34	36	0.10%	91	-0.1	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jordan Gumberg	0.26%	385	326		42
Jorge Campillo	2.01%	50	46		18
Joshua Berry	0.37%	270	326	0.10%	100	-0.1	PaddyPower: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jovan Rebula	0.22%	455	351		114
Junaid Manji	0.00%	10000	2001		135
Justin Harding	0.05%	2000	326		56
Justus Madoya	0.00%	10000	2001		100
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.78%	128	151	0.10%	34	-0.1	PaddyPower: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucas Bjerregaard	0.26%	385	251		91
Lukas Nemecz	0.64%	156	151		66
Manuel Elvira	1.14%	88	81		23
Marcel Schneider	1.07%	93	71		114
Marcel Siem	0.70%	143	151		53
Marcus Kinhult	0.56%	179	151		70
Matteo Manassero	0.96%	104	126	0.20%	114	-0.2	PaddyPower: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Baldwin	0.22%	455	651	0.10%	67	-0.1	PaddyPower: 650/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Jordan	1.20%	83	71		7
Maximilian Kieffer	0.60%	167	151		100
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.14%	714	376		34
Michael Hollick	0.45%	222	126		91
Michael Karanga	0.00%	10000	1501		139
Mikael Lindberg	1.75%	57	36		29
Mike Kisia	0.00%	10000	2001		141
Mike Toorop	0.05%	2000	2001		42
Mohit Mediratta	0.00%	10000	4001		144
Mutahi Kibugu	0.00%	10000	4001		129
Nathan Kimsey	1.38%	72	51		5
Niklas Lemke	0.94%	106	126	0.10%	34	-0.1	PaddyPower: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Niklas Norgaard Moller	1.56%	64	51		100
Njoroge Kibugu	0.00%	10000	751		61
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.40%	250	126		14
Pablo Larrazabal	0.42%	238	326	0.10%	70	-0.1	PaddyPower: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
Quentin Debove	0.15%	667	326		119
Quim Vidal	0.05%	2000	651		91
Renato Paratore	0.43%	233	251		124
Ricardo Gouveia	0.82%	122	101		9
Richard Sterne	1.58%	63	81	0.30%	56	-0.3	PaddyPower: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rikuya Hoshino	0.83%	120	101		100
Robin Williams	0.42%	238	211		124
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.13%	769	276		70
Romain Langasque	1.52%	66	81	0.30%	9	-0.3	PaddyPower: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Peake	0.06%	1667	1251		129
Ryan Van Velzen	0.31%	323	376		18
Ryggs Johnston	0.22%	455	351		56
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.49%	204	101		48
Samuel Njorege Chege	0.00%	10000	4001		127
Scott Jamieson	0.54%	185	151		34
Sebastian Garcia	0.23%	435	251		18
Sebastian Soderberg	1.24%	81	81		9
Shashwat Harish	0.01%	10000	1001		142
Shaun Norris	0.58%	172	91
Shubhankar Sharma	0.24%	417	326		48
Stefano Mazzoli	0.34%	294	141		100
Tapio Pulkkanen	0.78%	128	101		14
Thriston Lawrence	1.96%	51	23		29
Tobias Jonsson	0.47%	213	201		42
Todd Clements	1.54%	65	61		114
Tom Vaillant	1.35%	74	71		100
Veer Ahlawat	0.85%	118	151	0.20%	53	-0.2	PaddyPower: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wenyi Ding	1.73%	58	41		23
Yanhan Zhou	0.31%	323	91		100
Yannik Paul	0.40%	250	376	0.10%	91	-0.1	PaddyPower: 375/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yurav Premlall	0.17%	588	376		61
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.33%	303	251		100
Zander Lombard	0.33%	303	126		48

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	0.57%	175	111		16
Adam Blomme	0.34%	294	201		131
Adri Arnaus	0.44%	227	126		34
Adrian Otaegui	0.64%	156	126		69
Albin Bergstrom	0.29%	345	151		50
Alejandro Del Rey	1.31%	76	67		117
Alex Fitzpatrick	1.34%	75	51		16
Alexander Levy	0.49%	204	126		16
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	0.55%	182	151		50
Andreas Halvorsen	0.70%	143	91		16
Andres Gallegos	0.04%	2500	401		50
Angel Ayora	3.32%	30	26		5
Angel Hidalgo	0.54%	185	101		69
Anthony Quayle	0.49%	204	111		117
Antoine Rozner	2.12%	47	51	0.20%	10	-0.2	Skybet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Schmidt	1.32%	76	71		69
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.57%	175	111		34
Bernd Wiesberger	0.81%	123	111		34
Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.39%	72	76	0.10%	106	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
C.J. Wangai	0.00%	10000	601		125
Callum Tarren	0.59%	169	141		69
Calum Hill	2.40%	42	46	0.20%	34	-0.2	Betfred: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cameron Adam	0.43%	233	176		69
Casey Jarvis	1.33%	75	51		1
Celestin Nsanzuwera	0.05%	2000	401		69
Clement Charmasson	0.31%	323	141		117
Clement Sordet	0.89%	112	126	0.10%	117	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Connor Mckinney	0.26%	385	176		144
Connor Syme	1.07%	93	76		106
Dan Bradbury	1.92%	52	46		50
Dan Erickson	0.72%	139	126		138
Daniel Kiragu	0.00%	10000	401		143
Daniel Nduva	0.00%	10000	1501		125
Daniel Rodrigues	0.68%	147	111		16
Daniel Van Tonder	0.53%	189	81		50
Daniel Young	0.50%	200	111		85
Darius Van Driel	1.22%	82	71		50
David Law	0.53%	189	126		3
David Micheluzzi	0.83%	120	101		69
David Ravetto	0.70%	143	101		69
David Wakhu	0.00%	10000	501		125
Davis Bryant	0.32%	313	151		34
Dismas Indiza	0.00%	10000	351		117
Edwin Mudanyi	0.00%	10000	501		85
Euan Walker	0.16%	625	226		69
Ewen Ferguson	1.38%	72	67		117
Fabrizio Zanotti	0.56%	179	151		106
Felix Mory	0.31%	323	151		125
Filippo Celli	0.59%	169	126		85
Francesco Laporta	1.57%	64	67	0.10%	16	-0.1	BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Francis Epe	0.00%	10000	401		131
Fred Biondi	0.27%	370	161		16
Freddy Schott	0.80%	125	81		50
Frederic Lacroix	0.95%	105	76		10
Greg Snow	0.01%	10000	351		125
Gregorio De Leo	1.23%	81	71		50
Guido Migliozzi	0.85%	118	71		85
Hennie Du Plessis	2.08%	48	46		50
Hugo Townsend	0.57%	175	101		50
Hunter Logan	0.35%	286	151		85
Ivan Cantero	0.48%	208	126		85
J.C. Ritchie	1.34%	75	61		106
Jack Buchanan	0.26%	385	161		69
Jack Senior	0.43%	233	151		85
Jack Yule	0.13%	769	351		69
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.40%	71	61		34
Jacques Kruyswijk	1.13%	88	67		34
James Morrison	0.41%	244	161		34
Jason Scrivener	1.32%	76	81	0.10%	10	-0.1	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jay Sandhu	0.00%	10000	351		117
Jeff Winther	0.83%	120	111		85
Jens Dantorp	0.89%	112	126	0.10%	34	-0.1	QuinnBet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joakim Lagergren	0.89%	112	81		5
Joe Dean	0.79%	127	111		69
Joel Girrbach	1.14%	88	81		117
John Lejirma	0.00%	10000	351		106
Jonathan Broomhead	0.40%	250	126		106
Joost Luiten	2.32%	43	56	0.50%	34	-0.5	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jordan Gumberg	0.51%	196	151		16
Jorge Campillo	1.80%	56	67	0.30%	69	-0.3	Star Sports: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joshua Berry	0.44%	227	151		34
Jovan Rebula	0.29%	345	151		106
Junaid Manji	0.00%	10000	351		136
Justin Harding	0.19%	526	151		16
Justus Madoya	0.00%	10000	401		106
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.72%	139	116		3
Lucas Bjerregaard	0.54%	185	126		85
Lukas Nemecz	0.63%	159	126		50
M.J. Daffue	0.66%	152	111		106
Manuel Elvira	0.88%	114	86		34
Marcel Schneider	1.28%	78	71		69
Marcel Siem	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	85	-0.1	QuinnBet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcus Kinhult	0.90%	111	111		85
Mark Power	0.21%	476	176		34
Matteo Manassero	1.14%	88	86		34
Matthew Baldwin	0.43%	233	201		16
Matthew Jordan	1.30%	77	71		50
Maximilian Kieffer	0.91%	110	101		85
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.21%	476	151		16
Michael Hollick	0.47%	213	111		85
Michael Karanga	0.00%	10000	351		141
Mikael Lindberg	1.15%	87	56		5
Mike Kisia	0.00%	10000	351		141
Mike Toorop	0.09%	1111	251		34
Mohit Mediratta	0.00%	10000	401		138
Mutahi Kibugu	0.01%	10000	501		106
Nathan Kimsey	1.44%	69	61		16
Niklas Lemke	1.20%	83	91	0.10%	1	3	Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Niklas Norgaard Moller	1.08%	93	71		85
Njoroge Kibugu	0.05%	2000	201		16
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.46%	217	101		10
Pablo Larrazabal	0.69%	145	141		50
Quentin Debove	0.36%	278	151		85
Quim Vidal	0.20%	500	201		50
Renato Paratore	0.52%	192	126		85
Ricardo Gouveia	0.75%	133	101		5
Richard Sterne	1.62%	62	71	0.20%	85	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rikuya Hoshino	1.06%	94	81		136
Robin Williams	0.66%	152	111		131
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.36%	278	126		10
Romain Langasque	1.08%	93	81		50
Ryan Peake	0.23%	435	301		138
Ryan Van Velzen	0.35%	286	151		16
Ryggs Johnston	0.40%	250	151		5
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.51%	196	101		16
Samuel Njorege Chege	0.01%	10000	401		125
Scott Jamieson	0.76%	132	111		50
Sebastian Garcia	0.32%	313	126		50
Sebastian Soderberg	0.99%	101	86		16
Shashwat Harish	0.07%	1429	351		131
Shubhankar Sharma	0.45%	222	151		106
Stefano Mazzoli	0.37%	270	111		85
Tapio Pulkkanen	1.03%	97	91		16
Thriston Lawrence	1.31%	76	46		10
Tobias Jonsson	0.50%	200	111		16
Todd Clements	1.12%	89	71		85
Tom Vaillant	1.42%	70	71		131
Veer Ahlawat	0.75%	133	111		34
Wenyi Ding	1.67%	60	51		50
Yanhan Zhou	0.41%	244	81		85
Yannik Paul	0.65%	154	151		85
Yurav Premlall	0.24%	417	151		69
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.38%	263	126		69
Zander Lombard	0.44%	227	101		50

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Hennie Du Plessis	3.82%	26	29	0.40%	3	6	PaddyPower: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Richard Sterne	1.58%	63	81	0.30%	56	-2	PaddyPower: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Romain Langasque	1.52%	66	81	0.30%	9	-2	PaddyPower: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Joost Luiten	2.32%	43	56	0.50%	34	-1	Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jorge Campillo	1.80%	56	67	0.30%	69	-1	Star Sports: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Calum Hill	2.40%	42	46	0.20%	34	-1	Betfred: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Antoine Rozner	2.12%	47	51	0.20%	69	-1	Skybet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Richard Sterne	1.62%	62	71	0.20%	131	-1	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Francesco Laporta	1.57%	64	67	0.10%	50	-1	BetMGM: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.