Simulation Results: Kenya Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 1.11% 90 67 93
Adel Balala 0.00% 10000 2501 132
Adri Arnaus 0.98% 102 176 0.40% 48 -0.4 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrian Otaegui 1.92% 52 41 68
Adrien Saddier 2.15% 47 41 7
Albert Boneta 0.13% 769 301 48
Alexander George Frances 0.09% 1111 401 68
Alexander Levy 0.14% 714 501 60
Alfred Nandwa 0.00% 10000 5001 149
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.74% 135 226 0.30% 116 -0.3 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrea Pavan 1.32% 76 51 68
Andreas Halvorsen 0.31% 323 151 104
Angel Ayora 1.29% 78 34 20
Angel Hidalgo 0.93% 108 81 68
Ashun Wu 0.59% 169 126 116
Bastien Amat 0.13% 769 251 93
Ben Schmidt 0.55% 182 126 28
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.32% 313 251 68
Benjamin Hebert 0.43% 233 201 13
Bernd Wiesberger 1.41% 71 61 57
Bjorn Akesson 0.10% 1000 501 143
Brandon Robinson Thompson 2.14% 47 41 41
Brandon Wu 1.46% 68 71 0.10% 87 -0.1 Paddy Power: 66/1, 7pl, 1/5
Brett Coletta 0.20% 500 251 104
Callum Tarren 0.97% 103 101 104
Calum Hill 1.39% 72 51 93
Casey Jarvis 0.97% 103 67 20
Christofer Blomstrand 0.04% 2500 1501 31
Clement Sordet 0.54% 185 151 48
Connor Syme 2.09% 48 41 13
Conor Purcell 0.25% 400 201 87
Corey Shaun 0.23% 435 301 60
Daan Huizing 0.45% 222 276 0.10% 31 -0.1 Paddy Power: 250/1, 7pl, 1/5
Dale Whitnell 0.48% 208 176 57
Dan Erickson 0.07% 1429 1001 41
Daniel Gale 0.13% 769 401 93
Daniel Gavins 0.21% 476 2001 0.20% 68 -0.2 Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Nduva 0.00% 10000 5001 144
Daniel Young 0.73% 137 176 0.20% 48 -0.2 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Danny List 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 116 -0.1 Skybet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Darius Van Driel 1.22% 82 76 68
David Horsey 0.51% 196 201 116
David Law 0.90% 111 126 0.10% 104 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Wakhu 0.00% 10000 5001 139
Davis Bryant 0.19% 526 351 41
Deon Germishuys 0.75% 133 126 3
Dermot Mcelroy 0.09% 1111 1001 104
Dismas Indiza 0.15% 667 2501 0.10% 126 -0.1 Star Sports: 2500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eddie Pepperell 1.57% 64 67 0.10% 46 -0.1 Paddy Power: 60/1, 7pl, 1/5
Edwin Mudanyi 0.01% 10000 5001 116
Erick Ooko Obura 0.00% 10000 4001 137
Eugenio Chacarra 1.58% 63 46 20
Filippo Celli 0.53% 189 131 41
Freddy Schott 0.62% 161 126 7
Gavin Green 1.50% 67 101 0.50% 68 -0.5 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Grant Forrest 0.84% 119 81 64
Greg Snow 0.00% 10000 3001 116
Gregorio De Leo 0.40% 250 201 5
Guido Migliozzi 1.46% 68 34 68
Hamish Brown 0.55% 182 81 93
Haotong Li 2.36% 42 26 41
Hiroshi Iwata 0.42% 238 226 104
Ivan Cantero 1.42% 70 41 93
Jack Senior 0.60% 167 126 127
Jacob Skov Olesen 0.82% 122 126 13
Jacques Kruyswijk 1.24% 81 81 1
James Morrison 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 68 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jamie Donaldson 0.04% 2500 401 66
Jamie Rutherford 1.09% 92 91 5
Jannik De Bruyn 0.43% 233 176 68
Jayden Schaper 2.22% 45 31 4
Jean Bekirian 0.09% 1111 401 87
Jeff Winther 1.10% 91 101 0.10% 53 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
Jens Dantorp 1.01% 99 126 0.20% 31 -0.2 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jens Fahrbring 0.49% 204 251 0.10% 57 -0.1 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeong Weon Ko 0.61% 164 151 31
Joakim Lagergren 0.43% 233 226 13
Joe Dean 2.71% 37 29 28
Joel Girrbach 0.38% 263 201 20
Joel Moscatel 0.33% 303 226 31
John Lejirma 0.00% 10000 5001 104
John Parry 1.59% 63 34 2
Joost Luiten 2.45% 41 34 68
Jordan Gumberg 0.27% 370 301 53
Jorge Campillo 3.22% 31 23 28
Joseph Cwinyaai 0.00% 10000 3001 147
Joshua Berry 0.14% 714 751 7
Jovan Rebula 0.46% 217 131 31
Julien Brun 0.01% 10000 251 64
Justin Harding 0.25% 400 251 93
Kazuma Kobori 0.65% 154 81 31
Kristoffer Reitan 1.03% 97 81 93
Lars Van Meijel 0.46% 217 251 0.10% 104 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Louis Albertse 0.16% 625 751 31
Louis De Jager 0.53% 189 176 132
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.34% 294 251 104
Lukas Nemecz 0.96% 104 131 0.20% 20 -0.2 Paddy Power: 125/1, 7pl, 1/5
Manuel Elvira 0.65% 154 111 60
Marcel Schneider 1.40% 71 46 13
Marcel Siem 0.62% 161 111 68
Marco Penge 0.45% 222 201 20
Marcus Armitage 1.13% 88 71 87
Marcus Kinhult 1.10% 91 81 53
Martin Couvra 1.03% 97 56 53
Matthew Southgate 0.55% 182 151 68
Matthias Schwab 0.83% 120 151 0.20% 137 -0.2 Skybet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Maximilian Kieffer 0.87% 115 91 87
Michael Karanga 0.01% 10000 1001 141
Mikael Lindberg 0.23% 435 301 116
Minkyu Kim 0.55% 182 91 104
Mohit Mediratta 0.00% 10000 5001 144
Mutahi Kibugu 0.00% 10000 2501 127
Nacho Elvira 1.11% 90 81 11
Neil Schietekat 0.14% 714 601 104
Nicolai Kristensen 0.19% 526 301 132
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.92% 109 111 127
Niklas Lemke 0.88% 114 91 13
Njoroge Kibugu 0.00% 10000 3001 116
Oliver Lindell 0.92% 109 56 87
Paul Chidale 0.00% 10000 5001 146
Pierre Pineau 0.38% 263 201 127
Renato Paratore 0.24% 417 401 46
Ricardo Gouveia 0.66% 152 76 20
Richard Sterne 0.53% 189 251 0.10% 93 -0.1 Paddy Power: 250/1, 7pl, 1/5
Riz Charania 0.00% 10000 5001 93
Robin Williams 0.63% 159 151 68
Ryan Van Velzen 0.32% 313 176 11
Ryggs Johnston 0.35% 286 111 93
Sam Hutsby 0.42% 238 251 116
Samuel Njoroge 0.00% 10000 5001 141
Santiago Tarrio 0.54% 185 176 31
Sean Crocker 0.91% 110 81 68
Sebastian Garcia 0.28% 357 301 116
Sebastian Soderberg 2.99% 33 23 68
Shashwat Harish 0.00% 10000 3001 104
Shubhankar Sharma 0.92% 109 101 68
Simon Njogu 0.00% 10000 5001 139
Sunday Olapade 0.00% 10000 5001 132
Tadeas Tetak 0.08% 1250 501 13
Tapio Pulkkanen 1.38% 72 101 0.40% 31 -0.4 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Thomas Aiken 0.91% 110 151 0.20% 60 -0.2 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tiger Christensen 0.03% 3333 401 127
Troy Merritt 0.66% 152 176 0.10% 132 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Veer Ahlawat 0.19% 526 401 67
Wenyi Ding 1.08% 93 51 20
Wilco Nienaber 1.83% 55 41 68
William Odek 0.00% 10000 4001 148
Willy Deus 0.00% 10000 5001 149
Wooyoung Cho 0.21% 476 301 48
Zihao Jin 0.17% 588 176 7

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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