Simulation Results: KLM Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.82% 122 126 141
Adrian Otaegui 1.26% 79 101 0.30% 76 -0.3 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Albert Boneta 0.27% 370 351 134
Alejandro Del Rey 0.65% 154 101 60
Alex Fitzpatrick 1.19% 84 56 26
Alexander George Frances 0.04% 2500 1001 75
Alexander Knappe 0.07% 1429 1001 129
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.24% 417 751 0.10% 60 -0.1 Unibet: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Algot Kleen 0.11% 909 251 76
Andrea Pavan 1.35% 74 56 68
Andreas Halvorsen 0.23% 435 201 102
Andrew Wilson 0.50% 200 151 26
Andy Sullivan 1.53% 65 61 7
Angel Ayora 0.99% 101 67 19
Angel Hidalgo 0.46% 217 176 40
Aydan Verdonk 0.00% 10000 3001 141
Bastien Amat 0.04% 2500 1501 134
Ben Schmidt 0.51% 196 126 134
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.09% 1111 1001 102
Benjamin Hebert 0.40% 250 251 40
Benjamin Reuter 0.00% 10000 501 152
Bernd Wiesberger 1.10% 91 81 46
Bjorn Akesson 0.05% 2000 1001 151
Bjorn Driessen 0.00% 10000 1001 108
Brandon Robinson Thompson 1.28% 78 71 108
Brandon Stone 1.92% 52 46 102
Brandon Wu 0.98% 102 126 0.20% 108 -0.2 William Hill: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Callum Shinkwin 0.63% 159 126 49
Callum Tarren 0.84% 119 151 0.20% 87 -0.2 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Calum Hill 0.82% 122 81 71
Casey Jarvis 0.69% 145 111 129
Chris Wood 0.16% 625 601 76
Clement Sordet 0.18% 556 351 55
Connor Syme 0.60% 167 151 1
Conor Purcell 0.35% 286 201 76
Corey Shaun 0.14% 714 501 76
Daan Huizing 0.18% 556 351 19
Dale Whitnell 0.18% 556 751 87
Dan Bradbury 0.51% 196 176 7
Dan Erickson 0.23% 435 401 141
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 0.50% 200 126 26
Daniel Gale 0.13% 769 351 152
Daniel Hillier 1.19% 84 61 26
Danny List 0.15% 667 451 75
Darius Van Driel 0.85% 118 111 26
Davey Porsius 0.00% 10000 3001 75
David Micheluzzi 0.41% 244 126 124
David Ravetto 0.52% 192 151 40
Davis Bryant 0.40% 250 251 76
Deon Germishuys 0.23% 435 451 129
Dylan Frittelli 0.51% 196 151 68
Dylan Naidoo 0.08% 1250 751 26
Eugenio Chacarra 1.59% 63 34 46
Ewen Ferguson 2.21% 45 34 4
Fabrizio Zanotti 1.05% 95 91 26
Francesco Laporta 1.75% 57 51 7
Francesco Molinari 0.78% 128 101 55
Freddy Schott 0.36% 278 176 49
Gavin Green 0.55% 182 141 13
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 0.03% 3333 2001 75
Grant Forrest 0.59% 169 126 13
Gregorio De Leo 0.32% 313 226 65
Guido Migliozzi 1.39% 72 51 87
Guus Lafeber 0.00% 10000 3001 134
Hamish Brown 0.17% 588 351 26
Haotong Li 2.39% 42 23 60
Ivan Cantero 0.34% 294 176 26
Jack Senior 0.34% 294 226 4
Jacob Skov Olesen 1.22% 82 81 19
Jamie Donaldson 0.05% 2000 751 129
Jannik De Bruyn 0.22% 455 351 87
Jason Scrivener 0.79% 127 126 26
Jayden Schaper 1.81% 55 41 3
Jean Bekirian 0.05% 2000 1001 147
Jeff Winther 0.82% 122 101 49
Jens Dantorp 0.38% 263 251 26
Jeong Weon Ko 0.12% 833 401 87
Jimmy Walker 0.23% 435 501 147
Joakim Lagergren 0.44% 227 126 2
Joe Dean 1.15% 87 81 87
Joel Girrbach 0.14% 714 401 117
Joel Moscatel 0.19% 526 351 74
Johannes Veerman 1.24% 81 51 13
John Catlin 0.96% 104 71 76
John Parry 1.23% 81 61 55
Joost Luiten 3.55% 28 26 102
Jordan Gumberg 0.26% 385 251 102
Jorge Campillo 1.35% 74 76 7
Julien Brun 0.10% 1000 401 76
Julien Guerrier 1.64% 61 67 0.10% 75 -0.1 Skybet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Justin Harding 0.08% 1250 501 141
Kazuma Kobori 0.87% 115 126 0.10% 108 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Keita Nakajima 2.61% 38 29 87
Koen Kouwenaar 0.00% 10000 3001 147
Kristoffer Reitan 1.75% 57 34 13
Lars Van Der Vight 0.07% 1429 276 70
Lars Van Meijel 0.21% 476 351 55
Laurie Canter 1.15% 87 31 117
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.33% 303 276 26
Manuel Elvira 0.39% 256 201 7
Marcel Schneider 1.88% 53 46 65
Marcel Siem 1.05% 95 81 26
Marcus Armitage 0.86% 116 81 40
Marcus Kinhult 1.06% 94 81 73
Martin Trainer 0.01% 10000 2501 156
Matthew Baldwin 0.22% 455 226 108
Matthew Southgate 0.75% 133 126 87
Matthias Schwab 0.10% 1000 1001 76
Maximilian Kieffer 0.54% 185 151 49
Mikael Lindberg 0.21% 476 401 108
Minkyu Kim 0.27% 370 201 129
Nacho Elvira 0.75% 133 126 19
Nathan Kimsey 0.79% 127 151 0.10% 13 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nevill Ruiter 0.00% 10000 601 141
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.84% 119 81 7
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.36% 278 276 49
Niklas Lemke 0.55% 182 126 124
Ockie Strydom 0.04% 2500 1251 124
Oliver Lindell 1.16% 86 61 55
Pablo Larrazabal 0.41% 244 111 76
Pierre Pineau 0.09% 1111 751 19
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.35% 286 301 13
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 3.40% 29 17 76
Ricardo Gouveia 0.29% 345 251 19
Richard Mansell 1.19% 84 51 49
Richard Sterne 0.17% 588 501 26
Richie Ramsay 0.48% 208 176 4
Robin Williams 0.65% 154 141 87
Ross Fisher 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 72 -0.1 William Hill: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Van Velzen 0.18% 556 501 117
Ryggs Johnston 0.17% 588 401 75
Sam Bairstow 1.68% 60 36 75
Scott Jamieson 0.87% 115 101 134
Scott Woltering 0.00% 10000 2001 141
Sean Crocker 1.27% 79 67 19
Sebastian Soderberg 1.39% 72 56 65
Shubhankar Sharma 0.35% 286 251 108
Simon Forsstrom 0.32% 313 201 87
Tadeas Tetak 0.06% 1667 601 40
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.30% 333 201 102
Thomas Aiken 0.58% 172 276 0.20% 117 -0.2 William Hill: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thriston Lawrence 1.57% 64 41 87
Todd Clements 0.69% 145 101 87
Tom Vaillant 0.76% 132 126 60
Troy Merritt 0.67% 149 101 117
Ugo Coussaud 0.95% 105 81 124
Veer Ahlawat 0.21% 476 501 75
Vince Van Veen 0.05% 2000 1001 154
Wenyi Ding 1.38% 72 56 60
Wil Besseling 0.25% 400 251 87
Wilco Nienaber 0.37% 270 126 87
Wouter De Vries 0.04% 2500 1501 134
Yannik Paul 0.89% 112 111 87
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.43% 233 126 46
Zander Lombard 0.12% 833 351 40
Zihao Jin 0.00% 10000 501 108

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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