Simulation Results: Italian Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.63% 159 161 10
Adrian Otaegui 0.86% 116 126 0.10% 112 -0.1 Priced Up: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Adrien Saddier 1.02% 98 66 1
Albert Boneta 0.18% 556 301 41
Alejandro Del Rey 0.61% 164 91 83
Alex Fitzpatrick 1.66% 60 56 19
Alexander George Frances 0.05% 2000 1501 50
Alexander Knappe 0.06% 1667 1001 73
Alexander Levy 0.22% 455 401 112
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.27% 370 451 82
Andrea Pavan 0.58% 172 111 41
Andrea Romano 0.01% 10000 2501 33
Andreas Halvorsen 0.23% 435 161 16
Andrew Wilson 0.88% 114 131 0.10% 112 -0.1 Spreadex: 130/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andy Sullivan 1.85% 54 56 0.10% 33 -0.1 Priced Up: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Angel Ayora 1.58% 63 41 7
Angel Hidalgo 0.54% 185 151 46
Aron Zemmer 0.05% 2000 1001 112
Bastien Amat 0.02% 5000 2501 79
Ben Schmidt 0.35% 286 161 98
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.11% 909 601 41
Benjamin Hebert 0.59% 169 176 112
Bernd Wiesberger 0.88% 114 111 63
Bjorn Akesson 0.04% 2500 1501 83
Brandon Robinson Thompson 1.47% 68 67 21
Brandon Stone 1.30% 77 67 139
Brandon Wu 0.75% 133 176 0.20% 133 -0.2 Betfred: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brett Coletta 0.01% 10000 1501 152
Callum Shinkwin 0.69% 145 126 41
Calum Hill 0.69% 145 111 3
Clement Sordet 0.24% 417 276 5
Conor Purcell 0.47% 213 151 112
Corey Shaun 0.13% 769 601 83
Dale Whitnell 0.19% 526 501 63
Dan Bradbury 1.06% 94 91 3
Dan Erickson 0.12% 833 751 98
Daniel Gale 0.09% 1111 601 28
Daniel Hillier 1.13% 88 67 41
Danny List 0.19% 526 501 50
Darius Van Driel 0.82% 122 101 112
Darren Fichardt 0.41% 244 251 98
David Micheluzzi 0.60% 167 131 69
David Ravetto 0.70% 143 121 83
Davis Bryant 0.30% 333 201 10
Deon Germishuys 0.16% 625 501 83
Edoardo Molinari 1.03% 97 76 33
Elvis Smylie 0.24% 417 131 83
Enrico Di Nitto 0.01% 10000 5001 76
Erik Barnes 0.00% 10000 3001 150
Eugenio Chacarra 1.54% 65 36 7
Ewen Ferguson 3.14% 32 26 63
Fabrizio Zanotti 1.24% 81 81 21
Filippo Celli 0.22% 455 161 127
Flavio Michetti 0.02% 5000 451 152
Francesco Laporta 2.05% 49 31 10
Freddy Schott 0.38% 263 176 50
Frederic Lacroix 1.38% 72 51 127
Gavin Green 1.01% 99 121 0.20% 21 -0.2 Spreadex: 120/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 0.04% 2500 2501 112
Grant Forrest 0.88% 114 121 0.10% 83 -0.1 Spreadex: 120/1, 6pl, 1/5
Gregorio De Leo 0.29% 345 161 144
Guido Migliozzi 0.97% 103 81 133
Hamish Brown 0.36% 278 151 57
Hiroshi Iwata 0.34% 294 276 69
Ivan Cantero 0.50% 200 126 33
Jack Senior 0.75% 133 126 83
Jacob Skov Olesen 1.60% 63 76 0.30% 46 -0.3 Skybet: 75/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa 0.08% 1250 601 10
Jannik De Bruyn 0.20% 500 401 50
Jason Scrivener 0.81% 123 111 98
Jayden Schaper 2.38% 42 29 10
Jean Bekirian 0.03% 3333 2501 21
Jeff Winther 1.03% 97 101 33
Jens Dantorp 0.65% 154 161 28
Jeong Weon Ko 0.18% 556 501 144
Joakim Lagergren 0.46% 217 151 98
Joe Dean 0.85% 118 111 83
Joel Girrbach 0.21% 476 351 57
Joel Moscatel 0.11% 909 376 149
John Catlin 1.22% 82 67 28
John Parry 1.80% 56 41 50
Jordan Gumberg 0.22% 455 301 77
Jordan Smith 2.94% 34 23 28
Jorge Campillo 2.18% 46 56 0.40% 46 -0.4 BetGoodwin: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Julien Brun 0.11% 909 501 133
Justin Harding 0.11% 909 601 73
Kazuma Kobori 0.72% 139 111 16
Keita Nakajima 2.06% 49 41 112
Kevin Chappell 0.31% 323 201 127
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.47% 213 101 33
Kristoffer Reitan 1.91% 52 36 46
Lorenzo Scalise 0.13% 769 501 28
Louis Albertse 0.12% 833 1001 133
Luca Cianchetti 0.00% 10000 5001 133
Luca Memeo 0.01% 10000 1251 79
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.64% 156 176 0.10% 112 -0.1 Betfred: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucas Fallotico 0.01% 10000 1251 147
Manfredi Manica 0.01% 10000 3001 98
Manuel Elvira 0.66% 152 131 19
Marcel Schneider 1.37% 73 81 0.10% 7 -0.1 Priced Up: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marcel Siem 1.41% 71 76 0.10% 152 -0.1 Spreadex: 75/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marco Penge 1.21% 83 36 21
Marcus Armitage 1.34% 75 91 0.20% 57 -0.2 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marcus Kinhult 0.41% 244 176 33
Martin Couvra 2.19% 46 36 2
Martin Trainer 0.00% 10000 3001 155
Matthew Baldwin 0.19% 526 401 127
Matthias Schwab 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 83 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maximilian Kieffer 0.73% 137 131 16
Michael Hirmer 0.03% 3333 1251 83
Michele Ortolani 0.06% 1667 1001 112
Mikael Lindberg 0.13% 769 501 63
Nacho Elvira 0.95% 105 96 139
Neil Schietekat 0.03% 3333 2501 139
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 1.60% 63 56 5
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.40% 250 226 98
Niklas Lemke 0.49% 204 111 112
Oliver Lindell 1.41% 71 51 10
Pablo Larrazabal 0.45% 222 131 112
Pierre Pineau 0.25% 400 401 150
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.43% 233 226 21
Renato Paratore 0.25% 400 176 98
Ricardo Gouveia 0.66% 152 121 83
Richard Mansell 1.30% 77 56 98
Richard Sterne 0.29% 345 301 112
Richie Ramsay 1.50% 67 111 0.60% 98 -0.6 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rikard Karlberg 0.10% 1000 601 144
Robin Williams 0.46% 217 176 83
Romain Langasque 1.52% 66 81 0.30% 98 -0.3 Priced Up: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ross Fisher 0.23% 435 501 79
Ross Mcgowan 0.02% 5000 1501 83
Ryan Van Velzen 0.16% 625 601 127
Ryggs Johnston 0.13% 769 376 139
Sam Hutsby 0.17% 588 751 156
Scott Jamieson 0.59% 169 131 72
Sean Crocker 1.44% 69 56 63
Sebastian Soderberg 1.26% 79 67 57
Shaun Norris 1.29% 78 61 83
Shubhankar Sharma 0.38% 263 201 147
Simon Forsstrom 0.25% 400 251 57
Stefano Mazzoli 0.22% 455 201 50
Tadeas Tetak 0.15% 667 501 77
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.25% 400 251 57
Thomas Aiken 0.34% 294 401 0.10% 98 -0.1 Priced Up: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Todd Clements 0.86% 116 101 21
Tom Vaillant 0.74% 135 121 50
Troy Merritt 0.65% 154 131 133
Ugo Coussaud 0.76% 132 111 98
Veer Ahlawat 0.15% 667 501 73
Wenyi Ding 1.14% 88 51 139
Wil Besseling 0.17% 588 376 63
Wilco Nienaber 0.37% 270 111 127
Yannik Paul 0.79% 127 101 33
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.66% 152 91 112
Zander Lombard 0.24% 417 301 98
Zihao Jin 0.00% 10000 601 69

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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