Simulation Results: Italian Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adri Arnaus	0.23%	435	476		104
Adrian Otaegui	0.36%	278	141		116
Adrien Saddier	1.43%	70	61		89
Albin Bergstrom	0.28%	357	601	0.10%	11	-0.1	Unibet: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alejandro Del Rey	0.55%	182	71		104
Alessandro Nodari	0.04%	2500	1001		145
Andrea Romano	0.10%	1000	501		48
Andreas Halvorsen	0.71%	141	126		155
Andy Sullivan	0.72%	139	131		25
Angel Ayora	2.90%	34	23		5
Angel Hidalgo	0.38%	263	176		19
Anthony Quayle	0.20%	500	351		116
Antoine Rozner	1.54%	65	56		60
Aron Zemmer	0.07%	1429	1001		89
Ashun Wu	0.37%	270	251		66
Ben Schmidt	0.69%	145	176	0.10%	89	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.12%	833	751		122
Bernd Wiesberger	1.53%	65	41		122
Branden Grace	1.61%	62	34		69
Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.05%	95	101	0.10%	89	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Stone	0.55%	182	126		77
Calum Hill	1.37%	73	61		19
Cameron Adam	0.39%	256	401	0.10%	60	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Casey Jarvis	1.07%	93	46		77
Charley Hoffman	0.12%	833	501		150
Clement Charmasson	0.11%	909	751		122
Connor Mckinney	0.02%	5000	2001		153
Connor Syme	0.15%	667	376		77
Dan Bradbury	0.90%	111	61		41
Daniel Gavins	0.01%	10000	5001		155
Daniel Hillier	2.22%	45	29		77
Daniel Rodrigues	0.48%	208	201		6
Daniel Van Tonder	0.33%	303	151		25
Daniel Young	0.23%	435	401		60
Danny Willett	0.52%	192	176		133
Darius Van Driel	0.67%	149	101		66
David Law	0.37%	270	251		48
David Micheluzzi	0.16%	625	651		60
David Puig	3.63%	28	15		48
David Ravetto	0.65%	154	91		60
Davis Bryant	0.85%	118	91		48
Dylan Frittelli	0.34%	294	226		11
Dylan Naidoo	0.08%	1250	1001		104
Eddie Pepperell	0.72%	139	91		11
Edoardo Molinari	0.08%	1250	601		48
Elvis Smylie	0.88%	114	91		41
Euan Walker	0.20%	500	326		45
Eugenio Chacarra	2.62%	38	23		1
Ewen Ferguson	1.45%	69	56		19
Felix Mory	0.13%	769	751		35
Filippo Celli	0.39%	256	201		104
Filippo Grossi	0.00%	10000	2001		150
Filippo Ponzano	0.00%	10000	1501		35
Francesco Laporta	1.26%	79	61		104
Francesco Molinari	0.89%	112	56		128
Fred Biondi	0.18%	556	751		138
Freddy Schott	0.29%	345	126		89
Frederic Lacroix	0.40%	250	201		11
Giovanni Binaghi	0.03%	3333	1501		122
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	0.05%	2000	3001		133
Grant Forrest	0.85%	118	101		89
Gregorio De Leo	0.94%	106	61		89
Guido Migliozzi	0.57%	175	91		35
Hugo Townsend	0.18%	556	251		77
Hunter Logan	0.06%	1667	1001		122
Ivan Cantero	0.38%	263	301		104
J.C. Ritchie	1.25%	80	81		48
Jack Buchanan	0.07%	1429	1501		35
Jack Senior	0.15%	667	751		77
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.42%	70	56		41
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa	0.12%	833	751		104
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.45%	222	181		70
James Morrison	0.32%	313	451	0.10%	70	-0.1	Unibet: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Scrivener	0.53%	189	181		77
Jeff Overton	0.07%	1429	1001		122
Jeff Winther	0.45%	222	276	0.10%	6	-0.1	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jens Dantorp	0.39%	256	351	0.10%	55	-0.1	Unibet: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeong Weon Ko	0.05%	2000	1501		25
Joakim Lagergren	0.39%	256	201		4
Joaquin Niemann	3.92%	26	10		3
Joe Dean	0.96%	104	121	0.10%	77	-0.1	Unibet: 120/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joel Girrbach	0.43%	233	251		128
Johannes Veerman	0.31%	323	251		133
Jonathan Broomhead	0.13%	769	501		138
Joost Luiten	0.98%	102	126	0.20%	89	-0.2	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jordan Gumberg	0.27%	370	251		104
Jorge Campillo	1.12%	89	81		19
Jose Luis Ballester	0.57%	175	51		89
Joshua Berry	0.04%	2500	1251		154
Julien Quesne	0.11%	909	751		150
Junghwan Lee	0.28%	357	401		104
Kazuma Kobori	1.01%	99	91		19
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.47%	213	126		77
Kota Kaneko	1.77%	56	51		11
Lorenzo Scalise	0.15%	667	601		25
Luke Donald	0.33%	303	601	0.20%	138	-0.2	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Manuel Elvira	0.84%	119	151	0.20%	55	-0.2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcel Schneider	0.66%	152	176	0.10%	138	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marcel Siem	0.24%	417	351		138
Marcus Armitage	1.36%	74	61		66
Marcus Helligkilde	0.32%	313	351		116
Marcus Kinhult	0.46%	217	176		48
Martin Couvra	0.91%	110	61		55
Matt Wallace	2.26%	44	26		2
Matteo Cristoni	0.12%	833	601		11
Matteo Manassero	0.82%	122	81		77
Matthew Baldwin	0.21%	476	401		116
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.74%	135	101		25
Michael Hollick	0.27%	370	501	0.10%	89	-0.1	Star Sports: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Michele Ferrero	0.00%	10000	2501		145
Mikael Lindberg	1.30%	77	46		104
Mike Toorop	0.02%	5000	1501		138
Nacho Elvira	0.55%	182	131		25
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.24%	417	351		10
Niklas Lemke	0.21%	476	401		60
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.95%	105	71		45
Ockie Strydom	0.03%	3333	1501		70
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.52%	192	201		25
Oliver Lindell	2.70%	37	36		6
Pablo Larrazabal	0.15%	667	701		55
Patrick Reed	4.54%	22	15		45
Quentin Debove	0.08%	1250	1251		89
Quim Vidal	0.10%	1000	601		133
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.86%	116	126	0.10%	89	-0.1	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Renato Paratore	0.20%	500	351		128
Ricardo Gouveia	0.87%	115	111		89
Richard Mansell	0.47%	213	151		77
Richie Ramsay	0.54%	185	401	0.30%	6	-0.3	Unibet: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rikuya Hoshino	0.47%	213	201		89
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.17%	588	301		41
Romain Langasque	0.57%	175	176		11
Ross Fisher	0.33%	303	351		69
Ryan Palmer	0.01%	10000	1501		145
Ryan Peake	0.07%	1429	1251		133
Ryggs Johnston	0.08%	1250	751		25
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.35%	286	226		77
Sam Bairstow	0.39%	256	201		104
Scott Jamieson	0.28%	357	351		70
Sean Crocker	0.36%	278	226		35
Sebastian Garcia	0.18%	556	351		25
Sebastian Soderberg	0.80%	125	121		116
Stefano Mazzoli	0.26%	385	301		19
Thomas Detry	2.47%	40	23		104
Thriston Lawrence	0.81%	123	91		74
Tobias Jonsson	0.30%	333	401	0.10%	128	-0.1	Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Todd Clements	0.57%	175	151		11
Tom Mckibbin	1.83%	55	34		25
Tom Vaillant	0.89%	112	101		55
Ugo Coussaud	1.37%	73	81	0.10%	89	-0.1	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Wenyi Ding	0.73%	137	91		35
Will Porter	0.05%	2000	1501		145
Yanhan Zhou	0.81%	123	91		116
Yurav Premlall	0.33%	303	201		74
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.43%	233	176		138
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.12%	833	751		128
Zander Lombard	0.35%	286	181		145

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adri Arnaus	0.34%	294	176		93
Adrian Otaegui	0.63%	159	91		113
Adrien Saddier	0.97%	103	71		113
Albin Bergstrom	0.47%	213	251	0.10%	16	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alejandro Del Rey	0.64%	156	86		140
Alessandro Nodari	0.15%	667	301		125
Andrea Romano	0.22%	455	201		22
Andreas Halvorsen	0.72%	139	101		93
Andy Sullivan	0.91%	110	91		45
Angel Ayora	1.57%	64	46		8
Angel Hidalgo	0.52%	192	126		8
Anthony Quayle	0.43%	233	171		22
Antoine Rozner	1.09%	92	67		45
Aron Zemmer	0.26%	385	251		71
Ashun Wu	0.59%	169	171		16
Ben Schmidt	0.65%	154	126		45
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.28%	357	251		93
Bernd Wiesberger	1.08%	93	56		140
Branden Grace	1.01%	99	51		113
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.88%	114	91		93
Brandon Stone	0.78%	128	91		93
Calum Hill	1.20%	83	67		45
Cameron Adam	0.59%	169	171		93
Casey Jarvis	1.09%	92	61		22
Charley Hoffman	0.38%	263	251		152
Clement Charmasson	0.32%	313	251		148
Connor Mckinney	0.10%	1000	401		153
Connor Syme	0.35%	286	171		125
Dan Bradbury	1.00%	100	71		22
Daniel Gavins	0.04%	2500	751		156
Daniel Hillier	1.56%	64	41		22
Daniel Rodrigues	0.67%	149	126		22
Daniel Van Tonder	0.52%	192	101		45
Daniel Young	0.36%	278	176		125
Danny Willett	0.71%	141	111		148
Darius Van Driel	0.83%	120	91		45
David Law	0.56%	179	141		71
David Micheluzzi	0.33%	303	251		71
David Puig	1.88%	53	31		22
David Ravetto	0.70%	143	91		71
Davis Bryant	0.74%	135	81		45
Dylan Frittelli	0.47%	213	151		22
Dylan Naidoo	0.23%	435	251		125
Eddie Pepperell	0.68%	147	91		93
Edoardo Molinari	0.23%	435	201		1
Elvis Smylie	1.02%	98	91		45
Euan Walker	0.34%	294	176		22
Eugenio Chacarra	1.45%	69	41		8
Ewen Ferguson	1.31%	76	67		22
Felix Mory	0.33%	303	251		45
Filippo Celli	0.52%	192	126		22
Filippo Grossi	0.08%	1250	351		140
Filippo Ponzano	0.02%	5000	301		45
Francesco Laporta	0.96%	104	71		113
Francesco Molinari	0.97%	103	67		113
Fred Biondi	0.34%	294	251		113
Freddy Schott	0.42%	238	101		22
Frederic Lacroix	0.65%	154	101		71
Giovanni Binaghi	0.17%	588	301		140
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano	0.21%	476	401		93
Grant Forrest	0.92%	109	91		45
Gregorio De Leo	0.97%	103	67		93
Guido Migliozzi	0.81%	123	71		3
Hugo Townsend	0.40%	250	126		93
Hunter Logan	0.21%	476	251		140
Ivan Cantero	0.49%	204	171		71
J.C. Ritchie	1.17%	85	81		71
Jack Buchanan	0.22%	455	301		45
Jack Senior	0.28%	357	251		71
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.07%	93	67		16
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa	0.33%	303	251		125
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.69%	145	126		45
James Morrison	0.45%	222	176		71
Jason Scrivener	0.76%	132	126		71
Jeff Overton	0.18%	556	251		125
Jeff Winther	0.50%	200	176		71
Jens Dantorp	0.46%	217	176		71
Jeong Weon Ko	0.16%	625	301		8
Joakim Lagergren	0.70%	143	126		8
Joaquin Niemann	1.95%	51	26		2
Joe Dean	0.90%	111	91		16
Joel Girrbach	0.67%	149	126		140
Johannes Veerman	0.45%	222	151		125
Jonathan Broomhead	0.36%	278	251		71
Joost Luiten	0.85%	118	101		93
Jordan Gumberg	0.48%	208	151		45
Jorge Campillo	0.91%	110	81		8
Jose Luis Ballester	0.75%	133	67		93
Joshua Berry	0.21%	476	276		140
Julien Quesne	0.27%	370	276		140
Junghwan Lee	0.50%	200	171		71
Kazuma Kobori	1.07%	93	76		3
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.66%	152	101		71
Kota Kaneko	1.49%	67	67		22
Lorenzo Scalise	0.35%	286	251		22
Luke Donald	0.48%	208	251	0.10%	113	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Manuel Elvira	1.01%	99	111	0.10%	113	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcel Schneider	0.67%	149	126		154
Marcel Siem	0.36%	278	171		148
Marcus Armitage	1.02%	98	71		22
Marcus Helligkilde	0.40%	250	151		125
Marcus Kinhult	0.51%	196	126		22
Martin Couvra	0.80%	125	71		93
Matt Wallace	1.31%	76	41		45
Matteo Cristoni	0.33%	303	251		22
Matteo Manassero	0.76%	132	81		125
Matthew Baldwin	0.32%	313	176		113
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.90%	111	91		45
Michael Hollick	0.49%	204	251	0.10%	71	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michele Ferrero	0.05%	2000	501		71
Mikael Lindberg	0.97%	103	67		148
Mike Toorop	0.11%	909	401		45
Nacho Elvira	0.76%	132	91		3
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.37%	270	171		45
Niklas Lemke	0.48%	208	171		16
Niklas Norgaard Moller	1.03%	97	71		22
Ockie Strydom	0.18%	556	276		71
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.72%	139	126		22
Oliver Lindell	1.78%	56	51		8
Pablo Larrazabal	0.38%	263	251		8
Patrick Reed	2.52%	40	31		71
Quentin Debove	0.25%	400	276		71
Quim Vidal	0.23%	435	251		154
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.76%	132	111		45
Renato Paratore	0.34%	294	171		125
Ricardo Gouveia	0.73%	137	91		71
Richard Mansell	0.68%	147	111		125
Richie Ramsay	0.53%	189	181		45
Rikuya Hoshino	0.69%	145	126		71
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.43%	233	171		3
Romain Langasque	0.78%	128	111		45
Ross Fisher	0.45%	222	171		22
Ryan Palmer	0.13%	769	301		125
Ryan Peake	0.18%	556	276		113
Ryggs Johnston	0.20%	500	251		45
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.48%	208	141		22
Sam Bairstow	0.58%	172	126		93
Scott Jamieson	0.48%	208	171		93
Sean Crocker	0.47%	213	141		45
Sebastian Garcia	0.32%	313	171		45
Sebastian Soderberg	0.89%	112	81		16
Stefano Mazzoli	0.40%	250	151		45
Thomas Detry	1.35%	74	41		93
Thriston Lawrence	0.77%	130	91		125
Tobias Jonsson	0.42%	238	201		113
Todd Clements	0.78%	128	101		22
Tom Mckibbin	1.37%	73	46		22
Tom Vaillant	0.91%	110	91		3
Ugo Coussaud	1.21%	83	81		93
Wenyi Ding	0.69%	145	91		45
Will Porter	0.21%	476	301		125
Yanhan Zhou	0.68%	147	81		113
Yurav Premlall	0.42%	238	126		93
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.66%	152	111		125
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.29%	345	251		93
Zander Lombard	0.45%	222	126		93

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Richie Ramsay	0.54%	185	401	0.30%	6	-2	Unibet: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Joost Luiten	0.98%	102	126	0.20%	89	-2	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Manuel Elvira	0.84%	119	151	0.20%	55	-2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Manuel Elvira	1.01%	99	111	0.10%	113	-1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Albin Bergstrom	0.47%	213	251	0.10%	16	-1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Luke Donald	0.48%	208	251	0.10%	113	-1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Michael Hollick	0.49%	204	251	0.10%	71	-1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.