Simulation Results: Irish Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.20% 500 501 46
Adrian Meronk 0.84% 119 76 108
Adrian Otaegui 0.40% 250 451 0.20% 62 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 300/1, 10pl, 1/5
Adrien Saddier 0.71% 141 101 5
Alejandro Del Rey 0.43% 233 176 56
Alex Fitzpatrick 0.67% 149 131 149
Alex Maguire 0.01% 10000 2501 50
Alexander Knappe 0.02% 5000 2501 143
Alexander Levy 0.06% 1667 1001 50
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.07% 1429 1501 12
Andrea Pavan 0.31% 323 351 124
Andreas Halvorsen 0.18% 556 351 46
Andrew Wilson 0.27% 370 401 73
Andy Sullivan 1.16% 86 71 108
Angel Ayora 1.09% 92 51 5
Angel Hidalgo 0.16% 625 401 3
Ben Schmidt 0.32% 313 251 29
Benjamin Hebert 0.16% 625 751 134
Bernd Wiesberger 0.19% 526 601 26
Bjorn Akesson 0.06% 1667 1501 127
Brandon Robinson Thompson 0.72% 139 181 0.20% 117 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Brandon Stone 0.48% 208 151 127
Brandon Wu 0.17% 588 1501 0.10% 37 -0.1 Priced Up: 1500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brooks Koepka 0.40% 250 67 127
Callum Shinkwin 0.12% 833 451 88
Calum Hill 0.28% 357 251 124
Casey Jarvis 0.25% 400 301 20
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 2.01% 50 61 0.40% 50 -0.4 Boyle Sports: 40/1, 10pl, 1/5
Clement Sordet 0.27% 370 201 15
Connor Syme 0.34% 294 276 73
Conor Purcell 0.19% 526 401 134
Dale Whitnell 0.06% 1667 1501 154
Dan Bradbury 0.42% 238 201 88
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 0.70% 143 81 9
Daniel Hillier 0.63% 159 151 29
Danny Willett 0.53% 189 226 0.10% 88 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 150/1, 10pl, 1/5
Darius Van Driel 0.16% 625 501 117
Darren Fichardt 0.25% 400 751 0.10% 143 -0.1 Spreadex: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
David Micheluzzi 0.14% 714 401 88
David Ravetto 0.14% 714 376 15
Davis Bryant 0.35% 286 376 0.10% 67 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 250/1, 10pl, 1/5
Deon Germishuys 0.07% 1429 2001 143
Dylan Frittelli 0.12% 833 501 108
Dylan Naidoo 0.07% 1429 1001 68
Elvis Smylie 0.39% 256 161 37
Erik Van Rooyen 0.93% 108 81 56
Eugenio Chacarra 0.62% 161 126 50
Ewen Ferguson 0.44% 227 161 99
Fabrizio Zanotti 0.32% 313 451 0.10% 138 -0.1 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Francesco Laporta 0.63% 159 151 73
Francesco Molinari 0.44% 227 251 138
Frederic Lacroix 0.44% 227 181 117
Gavin Green 0.31% 323 351 99
Grant Forrest 0.94% 106 81 73
Guido Migliozzi 0.61% 164 181 0.10% 68 -0.1 Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hamish Brown 0.09% 1111 651 42
Haotong Li 1.55% 65 41 99
Ivan Cantero 0.22% 455 251 108
Jack Senior 0.20% 500 501 20
Jacob Skov Olesen 0.36% 278 226 8
Jannik De Bruyn 0.07% 1429 1001 26
Jason Scrivener 0.81% 123 181 0.30% 99 -0.3 Spreadex: 180/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jayden Schaper 0.74% 135 151 0.10% 99 -0.1 Priced Up: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeff Winther 0.38% 263 301 9
Jens Dantorp 0.19% 526 451 124
Jeong Weon Ko 0.05% 2000 1501 46
Jesper Svensson 1.29% 78 41 72
Jhonattan Vegas 0.82% 122 76 29
Joakim Lagergren 0.24% 417 201 2
Joe Dean 0.35% 286 226 138
Joel Girrbach 0.22% 455 401 154
Joel Moscatel 0.04% 2500 2501 66
Johannes Veerman 0.51% 196 151 73
John Catlin 0.31% 323 161 88
John Doyle 0.00% 10000 2001 138
John Parry 1.69% 59 56 29
Joost Luiten 0.99% 101 131 0.20% 15 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 100/1, 10pl, 1/5
Jordan Gumberg 0.10% 1000 1001 108
Jordan Smith 3.35% 30 34 0.40% 108 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 33/1, 8pl, 1/5
Jorge Campillo 0.88% 114 151 0.20% 117 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 100/1, 10pl, 1/5
Julien Brun 0.13% 769 1501 0.10% 73 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julien Guerrier 1.11% 90 101 0.10% 99 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 80/1, 10pl, 1/5
Kazuma Kobori 0.72% 139 141 62
Keita Nakajima 2.31% 43 51 0.40% 73 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 45/1, 8pl, 1/5
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.39% 256 201 56
Kristoffer Reitan 1.62% 62 41 127
Laurie Canter 0.71% 141 81 42
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.28% 357 251 73
Luke Donald 0.07% 1429 1001 108
M.J. Daffue 0.10% 1000 551 143
Manuel Elvira 0.27% 370 276 20
Marcel Schneider 0.92% 109 151 0.30% 88 -0.3 Boyle Sports: 100/1, 10pl, 1/5
Marcel Siem 0.59% 169 181 154
Marco Penge 2.59% 39 17 50
Marcus Armitage 0.32% 313 351 12
Mark Power 0.01% 10000 2501 88
Martin Couvra 0.47% 213 181 108
Martin Laird 0.47% 213 161 62
Martin Trainer 0.00% 10000 5001 153
Masahiro Kawamura 0.08% 1250 1001 73
Matteo Manassero 0.82% 122 111 37
Matthew Baldwin 0.08% 1250 1001 73
Matthew Jordan 0.53% 189 111 127
Matthias Schwab 0.05% 2000 2501 108
Matti Schmid 1.42% 70 51 73
Max Kennedy 0.06% 1667 2001 117
Maximilian Kieffer 0.28% 357 376 127
Mikael Lindberg 0.34% 294 126 37
Nacho Elvira 0.13% 769 601 29
Nathan Kimsey 0.28% 357 251 150
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.30% 333 276 37
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.20% 500 401 99
Niklas Lemke 0.32% 313 376 0.10% 20 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 250/1, 10pl, 1/5
Niklas Norgaard Moller 1.01% 99 67 73
Oliver Lindell 1.44% 69 81 0.20% 7 1 Boyle Sports: 55/1, 10pl, 1/5
Pablo Larrazabal 0.09% 1111 501 99
Padraig Harrington 0.16% 625 376 117
Patrick Reed 2.96% 34 34 50
Paul O'Hara 0.01% 10000 2501 62
Pierre Pineau 0.01% 10000 2501 143
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.23% 435 376 3
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 3.43% 29 23 73
Ricardo Gouveia 0.23% 435 451 152
Richard Mansell 1.11% 90 71 134
Richard Sterne 0.32% 313 451 0.10% 15 -0.1 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Richie Ramsay 0.34% 294 376 0.10% 73 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 250/1, 10pl, 1/5
Robert Moran 0.00% 10000 2501 88
Robin Williams 0.24% 417 351 68
Romain Langasque 0.86% 116 151 0.20% 29 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 100/1, 10pl, 1/5
Rory Mcilroy 10.47% 9.6 5.5 1
Ross Fisher 0.09% 1111 1501 46
Ryan Brehm 0.01% 10000 2501 127
Ryan Gerard 0.70% 143 61 73
Ryggs Johnston 0.09% 1111 751 88
Sam Bairstow 0.48% 208 181 117
Scott Jamieson 0.25% 400 451 88
Seamus Power 0.94% 106 91 88
Sean Crocker 0.29% 345 201 61
Shane Lowry 4.61% 22 18 15
Shaun Norris 0.27% 370 251 9
Shubhankar Sharma 0.12% 833 801 150
Simon Forsstrom 0.13% 769 601 68
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.09% 1111 751 29
Thomas Aiken 0.17% 588 1001 0.10% 29 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 750/1, 10pl, 1/5
Thomas Detry 1.29% 78 67 12
Thorbjorn Olesen 2.53% 40 46 0.40% 20 -0.4 Boyle Sports: 33/1, 10pl, 1/5
Thriston Lawrence 2.07% 48 46 138
Todd Clements 0.79% 127 111 26
Tom Mckibbin 1.53% 65 34 20
Tom Vaillant 0.58% 172 201 0.10% 42 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 150/1, 10pl, 1/5
Troy Merritt 0.18% 556 501 134
Tyrrell Hatton 3.32% 30 17 42
Ugo Coussaud 0.70% 143 176 0.10% 99 -0.1 Priced Up: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yannik Paul 0.15% 667 501 148
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.15% 667 451 56
Zander Lombard 0.00% 10000 601 56

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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