Simulation Results: Indian Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	0.60%	167	141		132
Abhinav Lohan	0.03%	3333	1501		124
Adam Blomme	0.03%	3333	2001		61
Adrian Otaegui	1.50%	67	46		61
Akshay Bhatia	7.53%	13	8		68
Akshay Sharma	0.05%	2000	1501		132
Albin Bergstrom	0.13%	769	501		75
Alex Fitzpatrick	2.31%	43	34		1
Amardeep Malik	0.07%	1429	1001		132
Andy Sullivan	1.55%	65	56		3
Angad Cheema	0.03%	3333	1251		84
Angel Ayora	3.76%	27	17		11
Angel Hidalgo	0.26%	385	176		90
Anshul Kabthiyal	0.05%	2000	1001		126
Anshul Mishra	0.00%	10000	1501		109
Anthony Quayle	0.18%	556	301		41
Arjun Prasad	0.17%	588	1001	0.10%	117	-0.1	Unibet: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Badal Hossain	0.02%	5000	1501		109
Ben Schmidt	0.64%	156	126		132
Bernd Wiesberger	0.98%	102	101		68
Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.68%	60	71	0.30%	57	-0.3	Betfred: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Calum Hill	1.24%	81	61		6
Cameron Adam	0.39%	256	351	0.10%	43	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Casey Jarvis	2.38%	42	21		13
Clement Charmasson	0.25%	400	401		68
Connor Mckinney	0.05%	2000	601		29
Cory Crawford	0.07%	1429	1001
Dan Bradbury	2.27%	44	29		59
Daniel Rodrigues	0.82%	122	91		90
Daniel Young	0.33%	303	301		31
Darius Van Driel	0.59%	169	151		18
David Law	0.36%	278	201		9
David Micheluzzi	0.29%	345	251		90
David Puig	5.84%	17	12		90
David Ravetto	0.57%	175	111		75
Davis Bryant	0.55%	182	126		57
Deepak Yadav	0.00%	10000	1501		132
Dhruv Sheoran	0.06%	1667	1001		68
Dylan Frittelli	0.61%	164	126		20
Dylan Naidoo	0.04%	2500	751		103
Edoardo Molinari	0.37%	270	141		117
Elvis Smylie	1.89%	53	41		109
Euan Walker	0.49%	204	201		11
Eugenio Chacarra	1.89%	53	36		2
Ewen Ferguson	1.71%	58	51		6
Felix Mory	0.07%	1429	601		31
Filippo Celli	0.12%	833	601		109
Francesco Laporta	1.83%	55	41		84
Francesco Molinari	1.04%	96	61		6
Fred Biondi	0.22%	455	601	0.10%	109	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Freddy Schott	0.41%	244	126		20
Frederic Lacroix	1.48%	68	51		41
Gaurav Pratap Singh	0.02%	5000	1251
Grant Forrest	0.77%	130	71		54
Gregorio De Leo	0.53%	189	126		54
Harrison Crowe	0.04%	2500	1501		75
Honey Baisoya	0.12%	833	751		103
Hugo Townsend	0.27%	370	201		18
Ivan Cantero	0.35%	286	251		61
Jack Buchanan	0.11%	909	601		66
Jack Senior	0.51%	196	201		34
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.42%	70	56		16
Jairaj Singh Sandhu	0.02%	5000	1251		132
Jamal Hossain	0.15%	667	1001	0.10%	90	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Morrison	0.28%	357	601	0.10%	24	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jens Dantorp	0.44%	227	251		50
Joakim Lagergren	0.56%	179	111		122
Joe Dean	0.37%	270	201		34
Joel Girrbach	0.63%	159	111		84
Jonathan Broomhead	0.27%	370	401		103
Joost Luiten	2.06%	49	46		75
Jordan Doull	0.06%	1667	751		90
Jordan Gumberg	0.48%	208	111		34
Jorge Campillo	3.00%	33	26		20
Joshua Berry	0.12%	833	326		132
Jovan Rebula	0.07%	1429	601		117
Julien Guerrier	1.31%	76	56		24
Junghwan Lee	0.24%	417	351		24
Kanav Chauhan	0.01%	10000	1501		129
Kartik Singh	0.11%	909	751		68
Kazuma Kobori	1.04%	96	71		50
Khalin H. Joshi	0.10%	1000	1001		68
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.59%	169	151		43
Kota Kaneko	1.03%	97	67		24
Kshitij Naveed Kaul	0.07%	1429	651		64
M.J. Daffue	0.39%	256	226		3
Manu Gandas	0.25%	400	401		90
Manuel Elvira	0.77%	130	101		43
Marcus Armitage	1.78%	56	51		109
Marcus Kinhult	0.35%	286	201		50
Martin Couvra	1.55%	65	41		20
Matteo Manassero	0.71%	141	81		9
Matthew Jordan	1.96%	51	51		29
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.30%	333	201		34
Michael Hollick	0.19%	526	351		43
Mikael Lindberg	1.20%	83	61		75
Mohd Azhar	0.03%	3333	1251		90
N. Thangaraja	0.08%	1250	601		103
Nacho Elvira	0.86%	116	81		34
Nathan Kimsey	2.08%	48	29		103
Nick Voke	0.26%	385	351		16
Niklas Lemke	0.27%	370	226
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.93%	108	71		54
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.51%	196	151		109
Oliver Lindell	2.49%	40	34		13
Om Prakash Chouhan	0.08%	1250	601		43
Pablo Larrazabal	0.29%	345	351		75
Quim Vidal	0.08%	1250	751		13
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.08%	93	101	0.10%	90	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 7pl, 1/5
Rayhan Thomas	0.40%	250	181		75
Ricardo Gouveia	0.58%	172	126		124
Rikuya Hoshino	0.48%	208	101		90
Robin Williams	0.25%	400	301		121
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.21%	476	251
Rohan Dhole Patil	0.00%	10000	1501		117
Romain Langasque	1.15%	87	86		84
Ross Fisher	0.26%	385	401		75
Ryan Peake	0.06%	1667	751		24
S. Manoj	0.04%	2500	751		43
Sam Bairstow	0.69%	145	91		90
Saptak Talwar	0.32%	313	251		101
Sean Crocker	0.73%	137	101		109
Sebastian Garcia	0.39%	256	301	0.10%	43	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Soderberg	0.93%	108	91		59
Shaurya Bhattacharya	0.23%	435	181		103
Shubham Jaglan	0.10%	1000	601		131
Shubhankar Sharma	0.26%	385	251		84
Stefano Mazzoli	0.34%	294	351	0.10%	65	-0.1	BetMGM: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sukhman Singh	0.00%	10000	1501		127
Tapendra Ghai	0.02%	5000			101
Thriston Lawrence	1.81%	55	31		40
Tobias Jonsson	0.48%	208	176		84
Tom Vaillant	0.92%	109	101		50
Ugo Coussaud	1.48%	68	76	0.20%	3	1.775	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Veer Ahlawat	1.27%	79	91	0.20%	75	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 7pl, 1/5
Yurav Premlall	0.14%	714	501		31
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.59%	169	151		68
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.52%	192	151		128

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	0.81%	123	111		129
Abhinav Lohan	0.08%	1250	401		113
Adam Blomme	0.12%	833	401		56
Adrian Otaegui	1.21%	83	56		75
Akshay Bhatia	4.40%	23	21		98
Akshay Sharma	0.11%	909	351		137
Albin Bergstrom	0.27%	370	201		98
Alex Fitzpatrick	1.92%	52	46		8
Amardeep Malik	0.18%	556	351		137
Andy Sullivan	1.25%	80	61		32
Angad Cheema	0.13%	769	351		56
Angel Ayora	2.70%	37	34		56
Angel Hidalgo	0.47%	213	111		113
Anshul Kabthiyal	0.11%	909	301		125
Anshul Mishra	0.02%	5000	401		118
Anthony Quayle	0.33%	303	151		32
Arjun Prasad	0.29%	345	301		56
Badal Hossain	0.08%	1250	401		87
Ben Schmidt	0.86%	116	91		41
Bernd Wiesberger	1.10%	91	81		87
Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.31%	76	71		41
Calum Hill	1.26%	79	61		4
Cameron Adam	0.62%	161	151		41
Casey Jarvis	1.78%	56	41		41
Clement Charmasson	0.33%	303	151		87
Connor Mckinney	0.16%	625	251		56
Cory Crawford	0.18%	556	301
Dan Bradbury	1.89%	53	41		3
Daniel Rodrigues	1.03%	97	91		87
Daniel Young	0.53%	189	111		75
Darius Van Driel	0.63%	159	101		41
David Law	0.54%	185	111		17
David Micheluzzi	0.40%	250	126		113
David Puig	3.60%	28	31	0.40%	98	-0.4	William Hill: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Ravetto	0.71%	141	91		41
Davis Bryant	0.69%	145	91		8
Deepak Yadav	0.00%	10000	301		131
Dhruv Sheoran	0.17%	588	301		75
Dylan Frittelli	0.68%	147	91		17
Dylan Naidoo	0.13%	769	251		41
Edoardo Molinari	0.56%	179	91		56
Elvis Smylie	1.43%	70	51		118
Euan Walker	0.72%	139	111		17
Eugenio Chacarra	1.34%	75	51		2
Ewen Ferguson	1.36%	74	71		8
Felix Mory	0.25%	400	251		41
Filippo Celli	0.28%	357	251		98
Francesco Laporta	1.44%	69	61		113
Francesco Molinari	0.97%	103	76		32
Fred Biondi	0.35%	286	176		125
Freddy Schott	0.51%	196	91		1
Frederic Lacroix	1.40%	71	61		87
Gaurav Pratap Singh	0.08%	1250	401
Grant Forrest	0.96%	104	61		8
Gregorio De Leo	0.73%	137	91		4
Harrison Crowe	0.13%	769	351		75
Honey Baisoya	0.24%	417	251		113
Hugo Townsend	0.55%	182	111		98
Ivan Cantero	0.56%	179	111		17
Jack Buchanan	0.23%	435	251		75
Jack Senior	0.76%	132	141	0.10%	41	-0.1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.45%	69	61		17
Jairaj Singh Sandhu	0.08%	1250	401		133
Jamal Hossain	0.29%	345	251		75
James Morrison	0.50%	200	151		8
Jens Dantorp	0.52%	192	111		17
Joakim Lagergren	0.60%	167	91		75
Joe Dean	0.52%	192	126		32
Joel Girrbach	0.78%	128	91		56
Jonathan Broomhead	0.47%	213	151		125
Joost Luiten	1.59%	63	71	0.20%	75	-0.2	Spreadex: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jordan Doull	0.15%	667	251		56
Jordan Gumberg	0.64%	156	91		17
Jorge Campillo	2.33%	43	46	0.20%	8	-0.2	William Hill: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joshua Berry	0.32%	313	141		136
Jovan Rebula	0.17%	588	201		98
Julien Guerrier	1.08%	93	71		75
Junghwan Lee	0.32%	313	151		75
Kanav Chauhan	0.04%	2500	301		134
Kartik Singh	0.29%	345	201		41
Kazuma Kobori	1.19%	84	67		17
Khalin H. Joshi	0.20%	500	251		98
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.81%	123	91		8
Kota Kaneko	1.13%	88	67		17
Kshitij Naveed Kaul	0.20%	500	251		41
M.J. Daffue	0.53%	189	126		17
Manu Gandas	0.43%	233	141		75
Manuel Elvira	0.93%	108	91		17
Marcus Armitage	1.61%	62	61		87
Marcus Kinhult	0.42%	238	126		56
Martin Couvra	1.46%	68	51		4
Matteo Manassero	0.84%	119	71		32
Matthew Jordan	1.55%	65	67	0.10%	8	-0.1	Spreadex: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.45%	222	126		98
Michael Hollick	0.45%	222	151		75
Mikael Lindberg	1.26%	79	67		87
Mohd Azhar	0.10%	1000	351		56
N. Thangaraja	0.20%	500	226		56
Nacho Elvira	0.90%	111	81		98
Nathan Kimsey	1.59%	63	46		56
Nick Voke	0.38%	263	151		56
Niklas Norgaard Moller	1.02%	98	67		4
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.73%	137	101		98
Oliver Lindell	1.80%	56	46		87
Om Prakash Chouhan	0.23%	435	201		41
Pablo Larrazabal	0.40%	250	151		32
Quentin Debove	0.27%	370	126		98
Quim Vidal	0.18%	556	251		8
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.21%	83	81		41
Rayhan Thomas	0.59%	169	111		98
Ricardo Gouveia	0.67%	149	91		98
Rikuya Hoshino	0.70%	143	81		87
Robin Williams	0.39%	256	151		129
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.33%	303	151
Rohan Dhole Patil	0.04%	2500	351		118
Romain Langasque	1.25%	80	71		56
Ross Fisher	0.41%	244	176		17
Ryan Peake	0.26%	385	251		17
S. Manoj	0.14%	714	251		87
Sam Bairstow	0.85%	118	81		118
Saptak Talwar	0.49%	204	126		98
Sean Crocker	0.72%	139	101		56
Sebastian Garcia	0.66%	152	101		32
Sebastian Soderberg	1.06%	94	81		56
Shaurya Bhattacharya	0.44%	227	141		118
Shubham Jaglan	0.23%	435	251		135
Shubhankar Sharma	0.38%	263	111		98
Stefano Mazzoli	0.55%	182	151		56
Sukhman Singh	0.01%	10000	351		131
Tapendra Ghai	0.09%	1111	351		118
Thriston Lawrence	1.57%	64	46		41
Tobias Jonsson	0.68%	147	111		41
Tom Vaillant	0.89%	112	91		56
Ugo Coussaud	1.48%	68	61		17
Veer Ahlawat	1.03%	97	86		32
Yurav Premlall	0.22%	455	251		17
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.68%	147	91		56
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.72%	139	91		125

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.68%	60	71	0.30%	57	-2	Betfred: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Ugo Coussaud	1.48%	68	76	0.20%	3	17.75	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Veer Ahlawat	1.27%	79	91	0.20%	75	-2	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 7pl, 1/5
FRL: David Puig	3.60%	28	31	0.40%	98	-1	William Hill: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jorge Campillo	2.33%	43	46	0.20%	8	-1	William Hill: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Joost Luiten	1.59%	63	71	0.20%	75	-1	Spreadex: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Matthew Jordan	1.55%	65	67	0.10%	8	-1	Spreadex: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jack Senior	0.76%	132	141	0.10%	41	-1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.