Simulation Results: Hainan Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.59% 169 176 51
Adrian Otaegui 1.53% 65 91 0.40% 11 -0.4 Betfred: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Albert Boneta 0.34% 294 201 99
Alexander George Frances 0.09% 1111 751 67
Alexander Knappe 0.23% 435 501 66
Alexander Levy 0.17% 588 401 23
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.14% 714 153
Andrea Pavan 1.05% 95 67 23
Andrew Wilson 0.21% 476 301 40
Andy Sullivan 0.99% 101 81 23
Angel Hidalgo 0.61% 164 151 114
Ashun Wu 1.19% 84 91 0.10% 40 -0.1 Betfred: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bastien Amat 0.03% 3333 1001 87
Ben Schmidt 0.32% 313 201 23
Benjamin Hebert 0.54% 185 201 87
Bernd Wiesberger 0.86% 116 151 0.20% 11 -0.2 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bjorn Akesson 0.09% 1111 751 31
Bowen Xiao 0.11% 909 501 6
Brandon Robinson Thompson 1.69% 59 46 76
Brandon Stone 2.41% 41 34 23
Brandon Wu 1.86% 54 71 0.50% 87 -0.5 BetVictor: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brett Coletta 0.04% 2500 601 149
Callum Tarren 0.77% 130 126 114
Calum Hill 0.93% 108 67 36
Casey Jarvis 0.82% 122 71 114
Cheng Jin 0.01% 10000 3001 106
Chuan-Lin Jian 0.01% 10000 1501 140
Clement Sordet 0.33% 303 276 87
Connor Syme 0.89% 112 81 132
Conor Purcell 0.44% 227 151 20
Corey Shaun 0.05% 2000 501 87
Dan Erickson 0.19% 526 351 58
Daniel Gale 0.10% 1000 501 123
Daniel Hillier 1.37% 73 41 9
Danny List 0.09% 1111 601 36
Davis Bryant 0.55% 182 251 0.20% 23 -0.2 QuinnBet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Deon Germishuys 0.40% 250 251 58
Dylan Naidoo 0.27% 370 201 123
Edoardo Molinari 1.18% 85 111 0.30% 6 0.85 Skybet: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Elvis Smylie 0.56% 179 101 16
Enhua Liu 0.00% 10000 3001 67
Eugenio Chacarra 5.39% 19 19 0.10% 11 -0.1 QuinnBet: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fabrizio Zanotti 1.00% 100 91 9
Freddy Schott 0.44% 227 126
Gavin Green 0.69% 145 111 106
Gen Nagai 0.00% 10000 4001 114
George Worrall 0.00% 10000 5001 106
Gordan Brixi 0.00% 10000 4001 76
Grant Forrest 0.40% 250 176 23
Gregorio De Leo 0.35% 286 151 87
Gregory Foo 0.01% 10000 3001 87
Haizhao Tang 0.00% 10000 2501 51
Hamish Brown 0.25% 400 201 99
Haotong Li 3.66% 27 13 51
Hongfu Wu 0.00% 10000 5001 147
Isaac Lam 0.00% 10000 5001 73
Ivan Cantero 0.57% 175 81 63
Jack Senior 0.39% 256 251 31
Jacob Skov Olesen 2.28% 44 56 0.50% 106 -0.5 Betfred: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jake Vincent 0.04% 2500 1501 76
James Morrison 0.18% 556 751 132
Jamie Donaldson 0.25% 400 401 147
Jan Schneider 0.02% 5000 1001 114
Jannik De Bruyn 0.49% 204 151 75
Jason Scrivener 1.00% 100 111 0.10% 16 -0.1 Skybet: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jean Bekirian 0.10% 1000 501 114
Jeff Winther 0.63% 159 151 99
Jeong Weon Ko 0.36% 278 151 71
Jicheng Fan 0.00% 10000 5001 87
Joakim Lagergren 0.36% 278 251 87
Joel Moscatel 0.23% 435 201 45
Johannes Veerman 1.28% 78 56 20
Joost Luiten 3.73% 27 31 0.50% 76 -0.5 BetVictor: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jordan Gumberg 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 16 -0.1 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jorge Campillo 1.64% 61 61 36
Joshua Berry 0.38% 263 126 132
Julien Guerrier 2.39% 42 41 40
Junseo Lee 0.00% 10000 4001 123
Justin Harding 0.24% 417 301 123
K.P. Lin 0.03% 3333 3001 106
Kazuma Kobori 1.54% 65 61 45
Keita Nakajima 2.90% 34 19 11
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 1.02% 98 91 11
Kristoffer Reitan 0.52% 192 151 2
Kymer Xuzhong Li 0.00% 10000 4001 114
Lawrence Ting 0.02% 5000 1001 151
Linqiang Li 0.01% 10000 2501 40
Lloyd Jefferson Go 0.12% 833 501 132
Louis Albertse 0.15% 667 751 132
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.13% 769 501 132
Manuel Elvira 0.38% 263 201 99
Marcel Schneider 1.93% 52 61 0.30% 99 -0.3 QuinnBet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marco Penge 1.32% 76 41 1
Marcus Kinhult 1.24% 81 81 114
Martin Couvra 1.12% 89 81 5
Matthew Baldwin 0.17% 588 501 23
Matthew Cheung 0.09% 1111 401 31
Matthew Jordan 3.19% 31 31 140
Matthew Southgate 0.51% 196 201 123
Matthias Schwab 0.10% 1000 601 71
Maximilian Kieffer 0.75% 133 151 0.10% 63 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mikael Lindberg 0.20% 500 401 76
Minkyu Kim 0.64% 156 81 55
Nacho Elvira 1.24% 81 91 0.10% 123 -0.1 Skybet: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nan-Nan Shen 0.00% 10000 4001 140
Nicolai Kristensen 0.22% 455 401 145
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.42% 238 201 114
Niklas Lemke 0.78% 128 71 45
Ockie Strydom 0.08% 1250 601 87
Oliver Lindell 0.75% 133 91 76
Oliver Roberts 0.00% 10000 2501 152
Pablo Larrazabal 0.68% 147 111 31
Pierre Pineau 0.10% 1000 601 153
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.21% 476 501 58
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 5.60% 18 15 4
Ricardo Gouveia 1.04% 96 81 55
Richie Ramsay 0.69% 145 151 40
Robin Williams 0.44% 227 176 58
Romain Langasque 2.19% 46 41 63
Ross Fisher 0.32% 313 301 132
Sam Bairstow 1.64% 61 36 6
Sam Hutsby 0.10% 1000 601 67
Sampson Zheng 0.14% 714 145
Santiago Tarrio 0.27% 370 401 106
Scott Jamieson 1.50% 67 91 0.40% 51 -0.4 Skybet: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sean Crocker 0.52% 192 126 2
Sebastian Garcia 0.28% 357 351 87
Sebastian Soderberg 1.04% 96 56 55
Senshou Cao 0.00% 10000 4001 132
Shinichi Mizuno 0.01% 10000 4001 149
Shubhankar Sharma 0.55% 182 151 76
Shun Yat Hak 0.03% 3333 2501 36
Sydney Chung 0.00% 10000 4001 123
Tadeas Tetak 0.13% 769 501 16
Taichi Kho 0.92% 109 67 45
Takumi Hayashi 0.00% 10000 4001 140
Tapio Pulkkanen 1.23% 81 67 123
Tom Vaillant 1.06% 94 81 62
Wenyi Ding 2.87% 35 17 45
Wil Besseling 0.13% 769 401 87
Wocheng Ye 0.00% 10000 2001 144
Xuewen Luo 0.03% 3333 123
Yang Tong 0.00% 10000 5001 76
Yanhan Zhou 0.20% 500 251 31
Yanwei Liu 0.05% 2000 2001 99
Yihao Fu 0.00% 10000 5001 153
Yi-Long Chen 0.00% 10000 3001 76
Yi-Tseng Huang 0.00% 10000 4001 67
Yu-Jui Liu 0.00% 10000 4001 99
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.99% 101 101 20
Yuze Zhang 0.00% 10000 4001 73
Zander Lombard 0.04% 2500 501 45
Zhengkai Bai 0.08% 1250 251 106
Zi Wang 0.00% 10000 4001 76
Zihao Chen (Sept1996) 0.00% 10000 3001 106
Zihao Jin 0.00% 10000 251 76

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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