Simulation Results: Hainan Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	1.09%	92	91		62
Adri Arnaus	0.32%	313	201		86
Adrian Otaegui	1.84%	54	41		3
Albin Bergstrom	0.31%	323	201		70
Andreas Halvorsen	1.01%	99	81		70
Andy Sullivan	1.63%	61	61		9
Angel Ayora	5.39%	19	10		28
Angel Hidalgo	0.41%	244	131		69
Anthony Quayle	0.42%	238	131		70
Ashun Wu	0.57%	175	151		65
Ben Schmidt	1.48%	68	67		94
Benjamin Krug	0.00%	10000	2001		117
Bo Jin	0.01%	10000	1001		17
Bo Peng	0.18%	556	1001	0.10%	112	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bowen Chai	0.15%	667	501		21
Bowen Xiao	0.31%	323	501	0.10%	31	-0.1	Spreadex: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.89%	53	51		23
Calum Hill	2.17%	46	41		45
Cameron Adam	0.68%	147	251	0.30%	94	-0.3	Skybet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charles Wang	0.11%	909	501		70
Clement Charmasson	0.27%	370	326		31
Connor Mckinney	0.10%	1000	651		86
Dan Bradbury	3.41%	29	26		17
Daniel Rodrigues	0.80%	125	151	0.10%	6	-0.1	Skybet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Young	0.35%	286	201		34
Darius Van Driel	1.00%	100	126	0.20%	34	-0.2	Spreadex: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Law	0.70%	143	151		51
David Micheluzzi	0.62%	161	201	0.10%	34	-0.1	Skybet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Davis Bryant	0.83%	120	126		51
Dylan Frittelli	0.90%	111	126	0.10%	13	-0.1	Skybet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eddie Pepperell	1.30%	77	81	0.10%	9	-0.1	Skybet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Euan Walker	0.25%	400	401		6
Eugenio Chacarra	3.17%	32	29		70
Felix Mory	0.16%	625	376		107
Francesco Molinari	2.79%	36	51	0.80%	34	-0.8	Skybet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Freddy Schott	1.14%	88	71		70
Frederic Lacroix	2.49%	40	31		106
Grant Forrest	3.08%	32	31		66
Gregorio De Leo	1.15%	87	81		66
Haizhao Tang	0.02%	5000	2001		103
Hongfu Wu	0.01%	10000	2501		45
Hugo Townsend	0.64%	156	126		51
Isaac Lam	0.04%	2500	2001		70
Ivan Cantero	0.51%	196	201		34
Jack Senior	0.64%	156	201	0.10%	55	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Yule	0.03%	3333	1501		100
James Morrison	0.40%	250	276		107
Jan Schneider	0.12%	833	1001		34
Jason Scrivener	1.85%	54	61	0.20%	55	-0.2	Skybet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeff Burton	0.02%	5000	2001		111
Jeong Weon Ko	0.13%	769	326		107
Joel Girrbach	0.92%	109	81		70
Jonathan Broomhead	0.39%	256	251		62
Joost Luiten	2.56%	39	46	0.40%	66	-0.4	Skybet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jordan Gumberg	0.63%	159	141		1
Jorge Campillo	2.75%	36	41	0.30%	2	1.35	Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joshua Berry	0.24%	417	476		113
Jun Liu	0.00%	10000	1001		119
Junghwan Lee	0.39%	256	301	0.10%	86	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin Sui	0.01%	10000	501		114
Kaito Onishi	0.28%	357	751	0.10%	70	-0.1	Spreadex: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kakeru Ozeki	0.03%	3333	1501		114
Kazuma Kobori	1.74%	57	61	0.10%	34	-0.1	Skybet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	1.07%	93	101	0.10%	86	-0.1	Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kota Kaneko	1.39%	72	81	0.20%	23	-0.2	Spreadex: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kuang Yang	0.03%	3333			94
Lawrence Ting	0.00%	10000	2001		86
Lloyd Jefferson Go	0.03%	3333	2501		55
Manuel Elvira	1.13%	88	81		34
Marcus Armitage	2.10%	48	51	0.10%	3	0.575	Skybet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Couvra	2.14%	47	36		9
Matt Killen	0.27%	370	251		62
Matthew Baldwin	0.24%	417	401		45
Matthew Jordan	1.70%	59	41		28
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.50%	200	81		70
Mikael Lindberg	1.87%	53	36		45
Mike Toorop	0.10%	1000	1001		94
Nacho Elvira	1.65%	61	56		94
Nathan Kimsey	3.30%	30	23		86
Niklas Lemke	0.79%	127	126		120
Niklas Norgaard Moller	1.60%	63	46		70
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.82%	122	81		70
Oliver Lindell	3.69%	27	26		14
Pablo Larrazabal	0.44%	227	251		100
Quentin Debove	0.15%	667	376		14
Quim Vidal	0.12%	833	476		60
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.26%	79	71		23
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.32%	313	201		45
Ross Fisher	0.43%	233	326	0.10%	45	-0.1	Spreadex: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Ang	0.09%	1111	1501		107
Ryan Peake	0.12%	833	1001		31
Sampson Zheng	0.38%	263			17
Sean Crocker	1.52%	66	51		28
Sebastian Garcia	0.65%	154	176	0.10%	23	-0.1	Skybet: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Senshou Cao	0.01%	10000	2501		116
Shawn Lu	0.08%	1250	1001		100
Shubhankar Sharma	0.36%	278	376	0.10%	70	-0.1	Skybet: 375/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shun Yat Hak	0.11%	909	2501	0.10%	70	-0.1	Bet365: 2500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stefano Mazzoli	0.38%	263	151		55
Taehoon Ok	0.59%	169	126		23
Taichi Kho	0.26%	385	131		21
Thriston Lawrence	1.75%	57	36		6
Tobias Jonsson	0.67%	149	201	0.20%	34	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Vaillant	1.01%	99	86		34
Ugo Coussaud	1.36%	74	81	0.10%	17	-0.1	Skybet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wenyi Ding	2.11%	47	23		14
Xinjun Zhang	0.00%	10000	2001		118
Xirong Cheng	0.02%	5000	2001		86
Yang Tong	0.06%	1667	2001		103
Yanhan Zhou	0.43%	233	61		3
Yanwei Liu	0.17%	588	451		86
Yu Fang	0.01%	10000	2001		51
Yue Liu	0.08%	1250	1001		60
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.64%	156	126		9
Yuxin Lin	0.04%	2500	1501		70
Zander Lombard	0.75%	133	101		55
Zhengkai Bai	0.10%	1000	1001		103
Zi Wang	0.03%	3333	2001		70
Zihao Jin	0.31%	323	351		34
Zijie Huang	0.02%	5000	2001		94

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Francesco Molinari	2.79%	36	51	0.80%	34	-2	Skybet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Joost Luiten	2.56%	39	46	0.40%	66	-2	Skybet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Jorge Campillo	2.75%	36	41	0.30%	2	9	Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.