Simulation Results: Open de France

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.41% 244 276 42
Aaron Van Hauwe 0.00% 10000 2501 148
Adam Blomme 0.00% 10000 2501 112
Adrian Meronk 1.02% 98 101 78
Adrian Otaegui 0.84% 119 161 0.20% 146 -0.2 Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrien Saddier 3.38% 30 26 32
Alex Fitzpatrick 0.64% 156 126 88
Alexander George Frances 0.01% 10000 2501 112
Alexander Knappe 0.02% 5000 2501 124
Alexander Levy 0.14% 714 476 70
Alexis Leray 0.00% 10000 1251 153
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 124 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrea Pavan 0.42% 238 251 88
Andreas Halvorsen 0.33% 303 226 60
Andrew Wilson 0.32% 313 226 133
Andy Sullivan 1.22% 82 76 138
Angel Ayora 1.95% 51 31 56
Angel Hidalgo 0.63% 159 126 112
Antoine Rozner 1.69% 59 51 12
Bastien Amat 0.04% 2500 1501 106
Ben Schmidt 0.53% 189 136 133
Benjamin Hebert 0.14% 714 601 88
Bernd Wiesberger 0.40% 250 276 124
Bjorn Akesson 0.06% 1667 1501 42
Brandon Robinson Thompson 1.03% 97 116 0.20% 88 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 80/1, 10pl, 1/5
Brandon Wu 0.21% 476 501 112
Brooks Koepka 0.65% 154 76 4
Callum Shinkwin 0.22% 455 301 154
Callum Tarren 0.35% 286 301 62
Calum Hill 0.41% 244 226 22
Casey Jarvis 0.62% 161 141 112
Chris Wood 0.17% 588 801 78
Clement Charmasson 0.07% 1429 701 74
Clement Sordet 0.52% 192 121 42
Connor Syme 0.52% 192 126 22
Conor Purcell 0.17% 588 301 148
Corey Conners 5.28% 19 13 70
Corey Shaun 0.03% 3333 2501 112
Dale Whitnell 0.07% 1429 1001 138
Dan Bradbury 0.98% 102 91 49
Dan Erickson 0.11% 909 1251 124
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 1.43% 70 51 12
Daniel Gale 0.04% 2500 1001 70
Daniel Hillier 1.05% 95 81 56
Danny List 0.08% 1250 1001 138
Darius Van Driel 0.45% 222 201 10
Darren Fichardt 0.40% 250 226 49
David Micheluzzi 0.31% 323 351 32
David Ravetto 0.46% 217 126 88
Davis Bryant 0.36% 278 226 112
Deon Germishuys 0.05% 2000 2001 88
Dylan Naidoo 0.13% 769 501 78
Elvis Smylie 0.84% 119 71 2
Eugenio Chacarra 1.02% 98 67 88
Ewen Ferguson 1.29% 78 56 88
Fabian Lang 0.00% 10000 1501 138
Fabrizio Zanotti 0.53% 189 251 0.10% 32 -0.1 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Francesco Laporta 1.45% 69 56 17
Freddy Schott 0.06% 1667 751 17
Frederic Lacroix 0.63% 159 91 32
Gavin Green 0.31% 323 351 62
Grant Forrest 0.59% 169 126 78
Gregorio De Leo 0.19% 526 351 32
Guido Migliozzi 0.75% 133 101 5
Hamish Brown 0.20% 500 301 32
Harry Hall 5.72% 17 13 88
Jack Senior 0.33% 303 226 78
Jacob Skov Olesen 0.91% 110 86 88
Jacques Kruyswijk 0.46% 217 126 49
Jannik De Bruyn 0.12% 833 401 42
Jayden Schaper 1.07% 93 91 9
Jean Bekirian 0.01% 10000 2501 88
Jeff Winther 1.08% 93 91 49
Jens Dantorp 0.19% 526 426 14
Jeong Weon Ko 0.14% 714 601 2
Joakim Lagergren 0.75% 133 81 56
Joe Dean 0.38% 263 276 154
Joel Girrbach 0.25% 400 301 60
Joel Moscatel 0.06% 1667 1001 112
Johannes Veerman 1.20% 83 86 78
John Parry 1.91% 52 46 88
Joost Luiten 1.47% 68 67 88
Jordan Gumberg 0.12% 833 801 138
Jordan Smith 3.43% 29 23 154
Jorge Campillo 0.99% 101 126 0.20% 75 -0.2 Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joshua Berry 0.10% 1000 601 106
Julien Brun 0.11% 909 651 22
Julien Guerrier 1.34% 75 81 0.10% 42 -0.1 Unibet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julien Quesne 0.07% 1429 601 148
Julien Sale 0.28% 357 351 76
Justin Harding 0.02% 5000 2001 22
Kazuma Kobori 1.02% 98 86 112
Keita Nakajima 2.01% 50 51 0.10% 49 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 35/1, 10pl, 1/5
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.59% 169 151 106
Kristoffer Reitan 2.09% 48 29 5
Laurie Canter 1.42% 70 51 32
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.27% 370 226 62
Manuel Elvira 0.58% 172 176 106
Marcel Schneider 0.91% 110 111 17
Marcel Siem 0.37% 270 201 62
Marcus Armitage 0.59% 169 151 5
Marcus Kinhult 0.26% 385 276 62
Martin Couvra 1.06% 94 51 62
Martin Trainer 0.00% 10000 3001 112
Masahiro Kawamura 0.11% 909 651 112
Matthew Baldwin 0.16% 625 601 88
Matthew Southgate 0.17% 588 451 138
Matthias Schwab 0.06% 1667 2001 76
Matthieu Pavon 0.65% 154 126 124
Maximilian Kieffer 0.37% 270 351 0.10% 62 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 300/1, 7pl, 1/5
Michael Kim 1.57% 64 34 1
Mikael Lindberg 0.42% 238 126 17
Min Woo Lee 3.32% 30 26 5
Minkyu Kim 0.20% 500 501 124
Nacho Elvira 0.30% 333 351 62
Nathan Kimsey 0.30% 333 301 28
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.50% 200 201 32
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.26% 385 301 49
Niklas Lemke 0.50% 200 176 28
Niklas Norgaard Moller 1.33% 75 67 14
Noa Auch Roy 0.00% 10000 1251 152
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 0.33% 303 101 88
Pablo Ereno Perez 0.06% 1667 601 22
Pablo Larrazabal 0.41% 244 226 78
Pierre Pineau 0.01% 10000 3001 138
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.58% 172 126 112
Ricardo Gouveia 0.30% 333 276 133
Richard Mansell 1.01% 99 76 78
Richard Sterne 0.38% 263 226 17
Richie Ramsay 0.67% 149 181 0.10% 32 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Robin Williams 0.24% 417 301 70
Romain Langasque 0.94% 106 91 28
Ross Fisher 0.13% 769 751 106
Ryan Fox 1.94% 52 36 14
Ryan Van Velzen 0.07% 1429 1001 148
Sam Bairstow 0.85% 118 101 28
Sam Hutsby 0.03% 3333 2501 124
Scott Jamieson 0.29% 345 351 133
Shubhankar Sharma 0.10% 1000 1251 106
Simon Forsstrom 0.25% 400 451 49
Tadeas Tetak 0.03% 3333 2001 78
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.22% 455 401 124
Thomas Aiken 0.25% 400 601 0.10% 146 -0.1 Unibet: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Detry 2.48% 40 36 42
Todd Clements 0.85% 118 91 10
Tom Vaillant 1.07% 93 81 78
Troy Merritt 0.29% 345 276 42
Ugo Coussaud 0.81% 123 101 22
Ugo Malcor 0.01% 10000 751 88
Veer Ahlawat 0.18% 556 401 88
Victor Perez 1.75% 57 36 32
Wenyi Ding 0.55% 182 101 56
Wil Besseling 0.06% 1667 751 138
Yannik Paul 0.31% 323 276 133
Zander Lombard 0.19% 526 501 124
Zihao Jin 0.00% 10000 2001 88

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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