Simulation Results: European Masters

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.37% 270 226 146
Aaron Rai 3.72% 27 15 68
Adrian Otaegui 0.40% 250 251 55
Adrien Saddier 1.29% 78 61 33
Albert Boneta 0.10% 1000 751 119
Alejandro Del Rey 0.43% 233 151 41
Alex Fitzpatrick 1.44% 69 56 110
Alex Noren 8.10% 12 13 0.40% 68 -0.4 Boyle Sports: 11/1, 8pl, 1/5
Alexander Bjork 1.12% 89 111 0.20% 119 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 100/1, 7pl, 1/5
Alexander George Frances 0.01% 10000 2501 119
Alexander Knappe 0.02% 5000 2501 65
Alexander Levy 0.10% 1000 751 91
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.22% 455 751 0.10% 142 -0.1 Betfred: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrea Pavan 0.29% 345 226 17
Andrew Wilson 0.22% 455 401 28
Angel Ayora 0.80% 125 61 8
Angel Hidalgo 0.38% 263 201 67
Antoine Rozner 1.24% 81 61 33
Bastien Amat 0.03% 3333 2501 131
Ben Schmidt 0.53% 189 176 119
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.02% 5000 2501 41
Benjamin Hebert 0.14% 714 601 28
Benjamin Rusch 0.06% 1667 751 131
Bernd Wiesberger 0.26% 385 276 55
Bjorn Akesson 0.09% 1111 1501 65
Brandon Robinson Thompson 0.71% 141 151 68
Brandon Stone 0.84% 119 111 55
Brandon Wu 0.18% 556 751 68
Callum Tarren 0.33% 303 301 53
Casey Jarvis 0.41% 244 151 41
Cedric Gugler 0.02% 5000 1001 91
Christofer Blomstrand 0.11% 909 2001 0.10% 119 -0.1 Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Clement Sordet 0.30% 333 251 33
Corey Shaun 0.04% 2500 1501 139
Daan Huizing 0.09% 1111 601 91
Dale Whitnell 0.10% 1000 751 146
Dan Erickson 0.12% 833 1001 110
Daniel Gale 0.03% 3333 1501 68
Danny List 0.07% 1429 1001 154
Danny Willett 0.96% 104 111 0.10% 46 -0.1 Priced Up: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Darius Van Driel 0.14% 714 501 28
David Ravetto 0.24% 417 251 126
Davis Bryant 0.71% 141 151 131
Deon Germishuys 0.10% 1000 751 142
Dylan Frittelli 0.18% 556 301 110
Eddie Pepperell 0.45% 222 176 100
Erik Barnes 0.00% 10000 5001 154
Erik Van Rooyen 1.10% 91 61 91
Eugenio Chacarra 0.81% 123 101 68
Fabrizio Zanotti 0.33% 303 251 68
Francesco Laporta 1.39% 72 61 139
Frank Kennedy 0.01% 10000 3001 55
Freddy Schott 0.08% 1250 601 110
Frederik Eisenbeis 0.00% 10000 3001 131
Gavin Green 0.53% 189 176 91
Gregorio De Leo 0.25% 400 276 68
Guido Migliozzi 0.59% 169 151 13
Hamish Brown 0.10% 1000 601 68
Haotong Li 1.54% 65 34 24
Harrison Endycott 0.06% 1667 751 68
Ivan Cantero 0.25% 400 251 46
Jack Senior 0.26% 385 301 110
Jacob Skov Olesen 0.52% 192 126 100
Jacques Kruyswijk 0.61% 164 126 52
Jannik De Bruyn 0.14% 714 601 131
Jason Scrivener 0.99% 101 81 33
Jayden Schaper 0.98% 102 67 100
Jean Bekirian 0.02% 5000 2501 100
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.01% 10000 2501 142
Joakim Lagergren 0.21% 476 276 8
Joel Girrbach 0.16% 625 501 7
Joel Moscatel 0.05% 2000 1001 131
John Catlin 0.32% 313 126 46
John Parry 1.33% 75 46 13
Jordan Gumberg 0.11% 909 751 68
Jordan Smith 3.51% 28 29 0.10% 17 -0.1 Betfred: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jordan Weber 0.00% 10000 2501 146
Jorge Campillo 1.11% 90 91 68
Julien Brun 0.14% 714 751 63
Justin Harding 0.04% 2500 1251 146
Keita Nakajima 2.40% 42 46 0.20% 17 -0.2 Priced Up: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.31% 323 226 23
Lev Grinberg 0.04% 2500 1001 126
Louis Albertse 0.06% 1667 2001 91
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.19% 526 351 8
Lukas Nemecz 0.14% 714 451 24
M.J. Daffue 0.13% 769 351 110
Manuel Elvira 0.31% 323 226 55
Marcel Schneider 1.05% 95 101 0.10% 100 -0.1 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marcel Siem 1.17% 85 91 0.10% 63 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 80/1, 8pl, 1/5
Marco Penge 2.43% 41 19 8
Marcus Armitage 0.46% 217 201 68
Martin Couvra 0.45% 222 126 91
Martin Laird 0.68% 147 126 100
Martin Trainer 0.00% 10000 5001 68
Masahiro Kawamura 0.10% 1000 601 68
Matt Fitzpatrick 8.05% 12 9.5 5
Matt Wallace 3.33% 30 26 2
Matteo Manassero 0.72% 139 71 40
Matthew Baldwin 0.09% 1111 1001 55
Matthew Jordan 1.12% 89 71 100
Matthew Southgate 0.21% 476 401 126
Matthias Schwab 0.11% 909 1001 139
Max Schliesing 0.00% 10000 3001 150
Maximilian Kieffer 0.42% 238 226 119
Maximilian Rottluff 0.08% 1250 601 13
Michael Alexander Mjaaseth 0.03% 3333 751 68
Miguel Angel Jimenez 0.21% 476 201 110
Mikael Lindberg 0.20% 500 301 13
Mike Lorenzo-Vera 0.13% 769 401 150
Minkyu Kim 0.12% 833 501 131
Nacho Elvira 0.17% 588 351 55
Nathan Kimsey 0.38% 263 201 68
Neil Schietekat 0.01% 10000 5001 131
Nicolai Hojgaard 3.58% 28 17 100
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.26% 385 301 41
Niklas Lemke 0.34% 294 226 46
Ockie Strydom 0.01% 10000 3001 154
Oliver Lindell 1.24% 81 81 17
Oliver Wilson 0.07% 1429 501 110
Patrick Rodgers 0.94% 106 61 33
Paul Casey 1.78% 56 34 24
Pierre Pineau 0.02% 5000 3001 153
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.28% 357 251 91
Rasmus Hojgaard 4.24% 24 19 2
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 3.49% 29 23 8
Richard Mansell 0.83% 120 81 6
Richard Sterne 0.25% 400 351 46
Robin Williams 0.31% 323 301 68
Romain Langasque 0.88% 114 101 33
Ronan Kleu 0.04% 2500 1501 24
Ryan Van Velzen 0.12% 833 1001 152
Ryggs Johnston 0.08% 1250 601 53
Sam Hutsby 0.02% 5000 2001 62
Sami Valimaki 1.35% 74 51 2
Santiago Tarrio 0.02% 5000 2001 100
Scott Jamieson 0.52% 192 201 126
Sean Crocker 0.52% 192 151 91
Sebastian Soderberg 0.69% 145 101 46
Shubhankar Sharma 0.08% 1250 751 68
Tadeas Tetak 0.03% 3333 2501 68
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.13% 769 751 119
Thomas Aiken 0.17% 588 601 28
Thriston Lawrence 1.40% 71 46 1
Todd Clements 0.78% 128 126 28
Tom Mao 0.00% 10000 4001 142
Tom Vaillant 0.50% 200 226 0.10% 17 -0.1 Star Sports: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Troy Merritt 0.23% 435 301 68
Ugo Coussaud 0.61% 164 176 17
Veer Ahlawat 0.13% 769 601 33
Wenyi Ding 0.74% 135 91 100
Wil Besseling 0.08% 1250 601 68
Wyndham Clark 2.55% 39 29 110
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.28% 357 251 126
Zander Lombard 0.10% 1000 501 41
Zihao Jin 0.00% 10000 2501 68

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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