Simulation Results: Open de Espana

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.23% 435 351 30
Adrian Otaegui 0.56% 179 251 0.20% 93 -0.2 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alejandro Del Rey 0.54% 185 91 62
Alex Fitzpatrick 0.47% 213 176 9
Alexander Knappe 0.01% 10000 3001 112
Alexander Levy 0.13% 769 601 9
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.15% 667 351 74
Alvaro Morales 0.00% 10000 2501 125
Andrea Pavan 0.29% 345 301 81
Andrew Wilson 0.19% 526 351 39
Andy Sullivan 0.47% 213 176 103
Angel Ayora 1.50% 67 34 9
Angel Hidalgo 0.27% 370 151 93
Ashun Wu 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 81 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Schmidt 0.26% 385 251 23
Benjamin Hebert 0.18% 556 501 74
Bernd Wiesberger 0.36% 278 401 0.10% 16 -0.1 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Robinson Thompson 0.75% 133 151 0.10% 44 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Stone 0.50% 200 176 93
Brandon Wu 0.14% 714 1001 65
Callum Shinkwin 0.16% 625 401 103
Callum Tarren 0.24% 417 401 69
Calum Hill 0.47% 213 181 9
Casey Jarvis 0.14% 714 351 130
Clement Sordet 0.27% 370 226 74
Connor Syme 0.33% 303 226 112
Conor Purcell 0.16% 625 501 132
Dale Whitnell 0.02% 5000 2501 65
Dan Bradbury 0.52% 192 151 30
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 0.93% 108 71 2
Daniel Hillier 0.59% 169 126 23
Danny Willett 0.36% 278 301 81
Darius Van Driel 0.53% 189 201 27
Darren Fichardt 0.18% 556 501 72
David Micheluzzi 0.24% 417 351 65
David Puig 2.80% 36 19 9
David Ravetto 0.21% 476 251 112
Dylan Frittelli 0.06% 1667 751 47
Dylan Naidoo 0.08% 1250 1001 93
Eugenio Chacarra 0.53% 189 101 93
Ewen Ferguson 0.85% 118 111 35
Fabrizio Zanotti 0.64% 156 201 0.10% 70 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Francesco Laporta 0.99% 101 81 47
Freddy Schott 0.26% 385 351 112
Frederic Lacroix 0.24% 417 151 27
Gavin Green 0.10% 1000 501 93
Grant Forrest 0.64% 156 81 16
Guido Migliozzi 0.61% 164 151 81
Hamish Brown 0.14% 714 501 103
Haotong Li 0.98% 102 51 81
Ignacio Mateo Fraga 0.00% 10000 5001 129
Ivan Cantero 0.11% 909 401 55
Jack Senior 0.38% 263 251 103
Jacob Skov Olesen 0.86% 116 111 47
Jacques Kruyswijk 0.46% 217 151 39
Jannik De Bruyn 0.16% 625 401 118
Jason Scrivener 0.36% 278 276 73
Jayden Schaper 1.52% 66 71 0.10% 5 0.13125 Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeff Winther 0.63% 159 176 0.10% 22 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jens Dantorp 0.19% 526 601 30
Jeong Weon Ko 0.18% 556 351 103
Joakim Lagergren 0.94% 106 81 5
Joaquin Niemann 5.31% 19 12 55
Joe Dean 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 71 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joel Girrbach 0.21% 476 351 3
Joel Moscatel 0.03% 3333 1001 122
Johannes Veerman 0.66% 152 141 125
John Parry 1.71% 58 61 0.10% 23 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 50/1, 8pl, 1/5
Jon Rahm 13.10% 7.6 4.5 9
Joost Luiten 1.34% 75 91 0.20% 16 -0.2 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Gumberg 0.05% 2000 2501 81
Jordan Smith 3.12% 32 34 0.20% 62 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 30/1, 7pl, 1/5
Jorge Campillo 0.94% 106 156 0.30% 74 -0.3 Spreadex: 155/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jose Luis Ballester 0.16% 625 101 55
Juan Salama 0.00% 10000 5001 112
Julien Guerrier 1.31% 76 101 0.30% 16 -0.3 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kazuma Kobori 0.71% 141 161 0.10% 122 -0.1 Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.36% 278 251 81
Kristoffer Reitan 2.25% 44 29 30
Laurie Canter 0.79% 127 101 122
Luis Masaveu 0.08% 1250 601 35
Manuel Elvira 0.34% 294 201 118
Marcel Schneider 0.47% 213 176 39
Marcel Siem 0.31% 323 251 44
Marco Penge 1.73% 58 23 1
Marcus Kinhult 0.17% 588 401 74
Martin Couvra 0.56% 179 151 74
Martin Trainer 0.00% 10000 5001 81
Matthew Baldwin 0.06% 1667 1501 103
Matthew Jordan 0.74% 135 126 47
Matthias Schwab 0.07% 1429 1001 112
Maximilian Kieffer 0.19% 526 401 93
Mikael Lindberg 0.54% 185 111 47
Nacho Elvira 0.21% 476 401 35
Nathan Kimsey 0.45% 222 251 0.10% 55 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.41% 244 176 125
Niklas Lemke 0.20% 500 301 93
Oliver Lindell 1.58% 63 67 0.10% 27 -0.1 Unibet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pablo Larrazabal 0.29% 345 351 118
Patrick Reed 4.18% 24 23 16
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.57% 175 131 55
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 3.56% 28 23 5
Ricardo Gouveia 0.28% 357 401 62
Richard Mansell 1.06% 94 76 125
Richard Sterne 0.74% 135 201 0.20% 103 -0.2 Betfred: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richie Ramsay 0.52% 192 226 0.10% 47 -0.1 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rikuya Hoshino 0.83% 120 111 93
Robin Williams 0.19% 526 501 81
Romain Langasque 0.92% 109 161 0.30% 81 -0.3 Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ross Fisher 0.15% 667 601 65
Ryggs Johnston 0.05% 2000 751 55
Sam Bairstow 0.47% 213 151 47
Santiago Tarrio 0.02% 5000 751 118
Scott Jamieson 0.29% 345 251 103
Sean Crocker 0.44% 227 201 55
Sebastian Desoisa 0.00% 10000 4001 130
Sebastian Soderberg 0.44% 227 226 81
Sergio Garcia 0.97% 103 36 39
Shane Lowry 4.15% 24 23 74
Shubhankar Sharma 0.08% 1250 1001 47
Simon Forsstrom 0.07% 1429 751 30
Thomas Aiken 0.10% 1000 751 93
Thomas Detry 1.49% 67 71 0.10% 35 -0.1 Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thorbjorn Olesen 3.14% 32 34 0.20% 9 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 30/1, 7pl, 1/5
Thriston Lawrence 0.87% 115 81 23
Todd Clements 1.08% 93 67 16
Tom Mckibbin 2.53% 40 31 4
Tom Vaillant 0.92% 109 126 0.10% 39 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ugo Coussaud 0.56% 179 151 5
Wenyi Ding 0.66% 152 121 81
Yannik Paul 0.17% 588 601 44
Zander Lombard 0.38% 263 151 103

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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