Simulation Results: Dubai Desert Classic

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adrian Meronk	0.57%	175	176		61
Adrian Otaegui	0.53%	189	401	0.30%	118	-0.3	Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ahmad Skaik	0.00%	10000	5001		125
Alejandro Del Rey	0.45%	222	126		26
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.61%	164	176		19
Andrea Pavan	0.29%	345	301		14
Andrew Johnston	0.28%	357	251		95
Andy Sullivan	0.58%	172	151		2
Angel Ayora	2.12%	47	29		26
Angel Hidalgo	0.25%	400	501	0.10%	26	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 300/1, 10pl, 1/5
Antoine Rozner	1.88%	53	81	0.70%	77	-0.7	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 10pl, 1/5
Ashun Wu	0.19%	526	601		56
Ben Schmidt	0.30%	333	351		71
Bernd Wiesberger	0.59%	169	226	0.10%	81	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.50%	200	301	0.20%	71	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 10pl, 1/5
Brandon Stone	0.62%	161	151		99
Calum Hill	0.53%	189	176		71
Casey Jarvis	0.50%	200	151		56
Christiaan Maas	0.49%	204	201		10
Connor Syme	0.39%	256	351	0.10%	77	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dan Bradbury	0.72%	139	151	0.10%	41	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 110/1, 10pl, 1/5
Daniel Gavins	0.01%	10000	5001		81
Daniel Hillier	2.44%	41	34		26
Danny Willett	0.20%	500	451		71
Darius Van Driel	0.23%	435	601	0.10%	10	0.9125	Ladbrokes: 400/1, 10pl, 1/5
Darren Fichardt	0.14%	714	1001		118
David Law	0.14%	714	501		118
David Micheluzzi	0.10%	1000	601		49
David Puig	3.70%	27	19		7
David Ravetto	0.18%	556	601		81
Dustin Johnson	0.26%	385	101		81
Dylan Frittelli	0.38%	263	201		64
Dylan Naidoo	0.04%	2500	4001		71
Eddie Pepperell	0.17%	588	476		49
Elvis Smylie	0.89%	112	126	0.10%	110	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 90/1, 10pl, 1/5
Ethan Fang	0.09%	1111	351		115
Eugenio Chacarra	1.16%	86	81		118
Ewen Ferguson	1.21%	83	111	0.30%	33	-0.3	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Francesco Laporta	0.47%	213	151		81
Francesco Molinari	0.46%	217	251	0.10%	4	2.45	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Freddy Schott	0.10%	1000	501		49
Frederic Lacroix	0.41%	244	301	0.10%	56	-0.1	Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Grant Forrest	0.75%	133	126		41
Guido Migliozzi	0.41%	244	251		123
Hennie Du Plessis	0.66%	152	201	0.20%	19	-0.2	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ivan Cantero	0.10%	1000	501		41
J.C. Ritchie	0.38%	263	226		33
Jack Senior	0.29%	345	751	0.20%	77	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 500/1, 10pl, 1/5
Jacob Skov Olesen	0.65%	154	161		99
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.51%	196	301	0.20%	19	-0.2	Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Morrison	0.12%	833			110
Jason Scrivener	0.32%	313	501	0.10%	81	-0.1	Spreadex: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jayden Schaper	2.68%	37	23		4
Jeff Winther	0.34%	294	351	0.10%	70	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jens Dantorp	0.10%	1000	1001		68
Jeong Weon Ko	0.08%	1250	2001		69
Joakim Lagergren	0.68%	147	151		99
Joaquin Niemann	0.98%	102	29		71
Joe Dean	0.18%	556	1001	0.10%	77	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/5
Joel Girrbach	0.33%	303	401	0.10%	49	-0.1	Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Johannes Veerman	0.26%	385	401		14
Joost Luiten	1.17%	85	141	0.50%	56	-0.5	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Gumberg	0.14%	714	751		81
Jorge Campillo	0.60%	167	201	0.10%	19	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Julien Guerrier	1.14%	88	101	0.20%	3	1.3	Ladbrokes: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
Junghwan Lee	0.15%	667	501		99
Kazuma Kobori	0.33%	303	351		71
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.39%	256	351	0.10%	110	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 300/1, 10pl, 1/5
Laurie Canter	0.87%	115	61		45
Luke Donald	0.11%	909	2001	0.10%			Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/5
Manuel Elvira	0.50%	200	251	0.10%	61	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 10pl, 1/5
Marcel Schneider	0.43%	233	251		33
Marcel Siem	0.39%	256	276		81
Marcus Armitage	1.22%	82	81		7
Marcus Kinhult	0.16%	625	601		115
Martin Couvra	0.60%	167	176		10
Matteo Manassero	0.41%	244	301	0.10%	110	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 200/1, 10pl, 1/5
Matthew Jordan	0.55%	182	201	0.10%	99	-0.1	Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.12%	833	351		125
Michael Hollick	0.20%	500	401		56
Mikael Lindberg	0.46%	217	126		45
Nacho Elvira	0.56%	179	151		99
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.12%	89	31		4
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.21%	476	601		33
Niklas Lemke	0.31%	323	601	0.10%	67	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 400/1, 10pl, 1/5
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.87%	115	101		81
Ockie Strydom	0.01%	10000	5001		123
Oliver Lindell	1.10%	91	91		26
Pablo Larrazabal	0.17%	588	451		81
Padraig Harrington	0.15%	667	751		95
Patrick Reed	2.20%	45	56	0.40%	1	13.2	Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Paul Waring	0.16%	625	501		95
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.42%	238	401	0.20%	19	-0.2	Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	3.05%	33	26		45
Renato Paratore	0.16%	625	801		99
Ricardo Gouveia	0.31%	323	401	0.10%	7	-0.1	Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Richard Sterne	0.31%	323	401	0.10%	99	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/5
Richie Ramsay	0.32%	313	601	0.20%	49	-0.2	Spreadex: 600/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rikuya Hoshino	0.28%	357	401		14
Romain Langasque	0.46%	217	251	0.10%	33	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 175/1, 10pl, 1/5
Rory Mcilroy	8.86%	11	4.6		33
Ross Fisher	0.10%	1000	1501		64
Ryan Fox	1.92%	52	56	0.10%	45	-0.1	Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryggs Johnston	0.07%	1429	1001		81
Sam Bairstow	0.35%	286	301		61
Scott Jamieson	0.34%	294	401	0.10%	81	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/5
Sean Crocker	0.27%	370	451		33
Sebastian Soderberg	0.31%	323	451	0.10%	81	-0.1	Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/5
Shane Lowry	4.05%	25	23		26
Shaun Norris	0.77%	130	201	0.30%	118	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 175/1, 10pl, 1/5
Shubhankar Sharma	0.15%	667	1001	0.10%	110	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/5
Thomas Detry	2.01%	50	56	0.20%	14	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 40/1, 10pl, 1/5
Thorbjorn Olesen	2.84%	35	26		10
Thriston Lawrence	1.07%	93	71		99
Todd Clements	0.27%	370	301		99
Tom Mckibbin	2.33%	43	34		19
Tom Vaillant	0.62%	161	176	0.10%	115	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tommy Fleetwood	6.55%	15	9		41
Tyrrell Hatton	3.30%	30	15		33
Ugo Coussaud	0.46%	217	251	0.10%	49	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 10pl, 1/5
Victor Perez	1.02%	98	86		64
Viktor Hovland	3.62%	28	17		14
Wenyi Ding	0.90%	111	81		19
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.22%	455	451		49
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.29%	345	601	0.10%	99	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 400/1, 10pl, 1/5
Zander Lombard	0.33%	303	251		26

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adrian Meronk	0.83%	120	101		41
Adrian Otaegui	0.73%	137	141		41
Ahmad Skaik	0.01%	10000			120
Alejandro Del Rey	0.70%	143	91		41
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.79%	127	101		90
Andrea Pavan	0.58%	172	161		5
Andrew Johnston	0.49%	204	161		62
Andy Sullivan	0.80%	125	141	0.10%	25	-0.1	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Angel Ayora	1.70%	59	41		90
Angel Hidalgo	0.47%	213	151		41
Antoine Rozner	1.40%	71	67		90
Ashun Wu	0.49%	204	176		25
Ben Schmidt	0.48%	208	151		41
Bernd Wiesberger	0.81%	123	121		73
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.70%	143	151		104
Brandon Stone	0.90%	111	91		104
Calum Hill	0.82%	122	101		62
Casey Jarvis	0.75%	133	91		73
Christiaan Maas	0.74%	135	101		12
Connor Syme	0.64%	156	126		41
Dan Bradbury	0.85%	118	101		73
Daniel Gavins	0.08%	1250	1001		90
Daniel Hillier	1.63%	61	46		12
Danny Willett	0.43%	233	181		104
Darius Van Driel	0.41%	244	226		73
Darren Fichardt	0.35%	286	301		104
David Law	0.39%	256	151		90
David Micheluzzi	0.28%	357	251		12
David Puig	2.03%	49	34		41
David Ravetto	0.36%	278	176		73
Dustin Johnson	0.53%	189	81		73
Dylan Frittelli	0.57%	175	126		41
Dylan Naidoo	0.19%	526	351		73
Eddie Pepperell	0.36%	278	151		12
Elvis Smylie	0.93%	108	91		120
Ethan Fang	0.30%	333	151		73
Eugenio Chacarra	1.04%	96	71		120
Ewen Ferguson	1.09%	92	91		12
Francesco Laporta	0.65%	154	121		115
Francesco Molinari	0.71%	141	141		1
Freddy Schott	0.30%	333	201		25
Frederic Lacroix	0.66%	152	141		73
Grant Forrest	0.90%	111	91		12
Guido Migliozzi	0.59%	169	126		124
Hennie Du Plessis	0.87%	115	101		25
Ivan Cantero	0.29%	345	181		25
J.C. Ritchie	0.53%	189	126		3
Jack Senior	0.50%	200	201		41
Jacob Skov Olesen	0.74%	135	101		115
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.72%	139	126		41
James Morrison	0.35%	286			73
Jason Scrivener	0.61%	164	181	0.10%	25	-0.1	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jayden Schaper	1.75%	57	41		25
Jeff Winther	0.58%	172	151		41
Jens Dantorp	0.27%	370	301		62
Jeong Weon Ko	0.27%	370	351		25
Joakim Lagergren	0.88%	114	91		41
Joaquin Niemann	1.14%	88	41		73
Joe Dean	0.35%	286	226		73
Joel Girrbach	0.62%	161	151		3
Johannes Veerman	0.48%	208	176		5
Joost Luiten	1.19%	84	86		41
Jordan Gumberg	0.37%	270	251		90
Jorge Campillo	0.76%	132	121		12
Julien Guerrier	1.08%	93	91		62
Junghwan Lee	0.40%	250	201		104
Kazuma Kobori	0.61%	164	151		41
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.60%	167	151		104
Laurie Canter	0.99%	101	67		62
Luke Donald	0.30%	333	351
Manuel Elvira	0.75%	133	111		5
Marcel Schneider	0.68%	147	141		25
Marcel Siem	0.58%	172	126		41
Marcus Armitage	1.12%	89	81		25
Marcus Kinhult	0.41%	244	176		115
Martin Couvra	0.80%	125	101		12
Matteo Manassero	0.60%	167	151		104
Matthew Jordan	0.67%	149	141		115
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.28%	357	151		126
Michael Hollick	0.39%	256	176		25
Mikael Lindberg	0.68%	147	91		2
Nacho Elvira	0.83%	120	91		62
Nicolai Hojgaard	1.21%	83	41		25
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.40%	250	226		5
Niklas Lemke	0.49%	204	226		25
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.85%	118	81		104
Ockie Strydom	0.09%	1111	651		120
Oliver Lindell	1.15%	87	81		12
Pablo Larrazabal	0.38%	263	151		90
Padraig Harrington	0.37%	270	251		41
Patrick Reed	1.53%	65	61		5
Paul Waring	0.38%	263	201		90
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.73%	137	141		25
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	1.84%	54	41		90
Renato Paratore	0.39%	256	201		90
Ricardo Gouveia	0.62%	161	151		41
Richard Sterne	0.52%	192	161		73
Richie Ramsay	0.58%	172	176		73
Rikuya Hoshino	0.53%	189	151		90
Romain Langasque	0.63%	159	141		62
Rory Mcilroy	4.05%	25	13		62
Ross Fisher	0.32%	313	351		41
Ryan Fox	1.62%	62	61		41
Ryggs Johnston	0.31%	323	226		41
Sam Bairstow	0.58%	172	141		104
Scott Jamieson	0.63%	159	151		12
Sean Crocker	0.49%	204	151		90
Sebastian Soderberg	0.51%	196	161		90
Shane Lowry	2.46%	41	36		12
Shaun Norris	0.97%	103	141	0.30%	124	-0.3	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shubhankar Sharma	0.37%	270	226		73
Thomas Detry	1.68%	60	51		62
Thorbjorn Olesen	1.79%	56	41		12
Thriston Lawrence	1.16%	86	67		104
Todd Clements	0.57%	175	151		115
Tom Mckibbin	1.50%	67	51		25
Tom Vaillant	0.83%	120	121		41
Tommy Fleetwood	3.38%	30	23		62
Tyrrell Hatton	2.15%	47	36		12
Ugo Coussaud	0.63%	159	111		73
Victor Perez	1.13%	88	81		73
Viktor Hovland	2.10%	48	34		62
Wenyi Ding	1.01%	99	91		5
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.47%	213	161		5
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.54%	185	201		90
Zander Lombard	0.61%	164	141		25

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Antoine Rozner	1.88%	53	81	0.70%	77	-2	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 10pl, 1/5
WIN: Joost Luiten	1.17%	85	141	0.50%	56	-2	Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Patrick Reed	2.20%	45	56	0.40%	1	66	Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Shaun Norris	0.97%	103	141	0.30%	124	-1	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Andy Sullivan	0.80%	125	141	0.10%	25	-1	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jason Scrivener	0.61%	164	181	0.10%	25	-1	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.