Simulation Results: Dubai Desert Classic

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 121 -0.1 Paddy Power: 350/1, 7pl, 1/5
Adam Bresnu 0.04% 2500 751 68
Adam Scott 5.41% 18 23 1.10% 37 -1.1 Ladbrokes: 18/1, 10pl, 1/5
Adrian Meronk 0.78% 128 91 87
Adrian Otaegui 0.63% 159 151 58
Adrien Saddier 0.44% 227 201 112
Akshay Bhatia 0.77% 130 36 37
Alejandro Del Rey 0.24% 417 351 118
Alex Fitzpatrick 0.99% 101 101 104
Alexander Bjork 0.32% 313 301 27
Alexander Knappe 0.02% 5000 5001 37
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.11% 909 1001 58
Andrea Pavan 0.33% 303 351 80
Andrew Wilson 0.18% 556 501 104
Andy Sullivan 0.65% 154 126 58
Angel Hidalgo 0.25% 400 351 68
Ashun Wu 0.17% 588 401 96
Bernd Wiesberger 0.63% 159 176 0.10% 45 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Brandon Stone 0.74% 135 101 96
Callum Shinkwin 0.40% 250 251 87
Calum Hill 0.34% 294 251 17
Casey Jarvis 0.18% 556 251 37
Connor Syme 0.24% 417 401 27
Dale Whitnell 0.11% 909 751 118
Dan Bradbury 0.23% 435 301 52
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 0.15% 667 501 80
Daniel Gavins 0.01% 10000 5001 74
Daniel Hillier 0.37% 270 201 2
Darius Van Driel 0.30% 333 601 0.10% 96 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 400/1, 10pl, 1/5
Darren Fichardt 0.06% 1667 2501 80
David Ford 0.02% 5000 501 72
David Micheluzzi 0.20% 500 351 8
David Ravetto 0.09% 1111 1001 45
Dean Burmester 1.23% 81 41 96
Dylan Frittelli 0.13% 769 1501 0.10% 10 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Elvis Smylie 0.13% 769 351 58
Ewen Ferguson 0.67% 149 131 16
Fabrizio Zanotti 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 77 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Francesco Laporta 0.23% 435 201 31
Frederic Lacroix 0.51% 196 201 96
Gavin Green 0.17% 588 251 80
George Coetzee 0.01% 10000 2001 87
Grant Forrest 0.16% 625 401 79
Guido Migliozzi 0.66% 152 126 8
Haotong Li 0.36% 278 176 52
Ivan Cantero 0.13% 769 751 31
Jacques Kruyswijk 0.12% 833 501 21
Jannik De Bruyn 0.08% 1250 751 74
Jason Scrivener 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 21 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jayden Schaper 0.34% 294 301 21
Jeff Winther 0.31% 323 301 80
Jens Dantorp 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 65 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeong Weon Ko 0.08% 1250 1501 68
Jimmy Walker 0.54% 185 601 0.40% 121 -0.4 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joe Dean 0.25% 400 351 68
Joel Girrbach 0.05% 2000 2501 37
Johannes Veerman 1.39% 72 67 37
John Parry 0.66% 152 101 80
Jon Rahm 8.17% 12 6.5 87
Joost Luiten 0.57% 175 176 27
Jordan Gumberg 0.04% 2500 2501 17
Jordan Smith 2.01% 50 56 0.20% 65 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 40/1, 10pl, 1/5
Jorge Campillo 0.85% 118 111 96
Julien Guerrier 0.84% 119 126 21
Keita Nakajima 0.94% 106 71 21
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.10% 1000 1501 52
Laurie Canter 0.89% 112 91 3
Louis De Jager 0.12% 833 751 52
Luke Donald 0.24% 417 751 0.10% 112 -0.1 Paddy Power: 750/1, 7pl, 1/5
Manuel Elvira 0.06% 1667 1001 112
Marcel Schneider 0.18% 556 401 52
Marcel Siem 0.12% 833 751 58
Marcus Armitage 0.21% 476 601 31
Marcus Kinhult 0.69% 145 176 0.10% 124 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Matt Wallace 1.81% 55 41 45
Matthew Baldwin 0.17% 588 751 104
Matthew Jordan 1.14% 88 81 27
Matthias Schwab 0.23% 435 601 0.10% 96 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maximilian Kieffer 0.29% 345 401 45
Mike Lorenzo-Vera 0.20% 500 501 31
Min Woo Lee 1.48% 68 36 17
Nacho Elvira 0.37% 270 601 0.20% 58 -0.2 Paddy Power: 600/1, 7pl, 1/5
Nathan Kimsey 0.86% 116 201 0.40% 104 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Nicolai Hojgaard 0.97% 103 67 65
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.07% 1429 1001 72
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.58% 172 101 4
Ockie Strydom 0.05% 2000 2501
Pablo Larrazabal 0.17% 588 501 125
Padraig Harrington 0.35% 286 251 80
Patrick Reed 1.93% 52 41 10
Paul Waring 0.59% 169 111 104
Preston Summerhays 0.02% 5000 351 37
Rasmus Hojgaard 3.97% 25 29 0.50% 14 -0.5 Ladbrokes: 22/1, 10pl, 1/5
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 0.80% 125 101 10
Ricardo Gouveia 0.06% 1667 1001 14
Richard Mansell 0.43% 233 201 58
Richie Ramsay 0.23% 435 401 45
Robert Macintyre 4.39% 23 23 17
Robin Williams 0.15% 667 601 45
Romain Langasque 1.23% 81 81 45
Rory Mcilroy 10.60% 9.4 5 4
Ross Fisher 0.08% 1250 1001 112
Ryan Fox 1.19% 84 91 0.10% 10 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
Ryan Van Velzen 0.07% 1429 601 123
Ryggs Johnston 0.14% 714 351 104
Sam Bairstow 0.38% 263 276 77
Scott Jamieson 0.46% 217 251 0.10% 96 -0.1 Paddy Power: 225/1, 7pl, 1/5
Sean Crocker 0.33% 303 351 87
Sebastian Soderberg 0.50% 200 176 31
Shaun Norris 0.53% 189 126 6
Shubhankar Sharma 0.28% 357 276 112
Simon Forsstrom 0.10% 1000 2001 0.10% 112 -0.1 Betfred: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Aiken 0.19% 526 1001 0.10% 87 -0.1 BetVictor: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Pieters 0.92% 109 67 87
Thorbjorn Olesen 2.53% 40 31 31
Thriston Lawrence 0.82% 122 81 87
Todd Clements 0.17% 588 401 37
Tom Mckibbin 0.92% 109 71 6
Tom Vaillant 0.21% 476 351 52
Tommy Fleetwood 6.99% 14 12 21
Tyrrell Hatton 5.69% 18 10 1
Ugo Coussaud 0.43% 233 226 74
Veer Ahlawat 0.04% 2500 1501 118
Viktor Hovland 2.47% 40 17 104
Yannik Paul 0.33% 303 301 104
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.27% 370 451 87

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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