Simulation Results: Dubai Invitational

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adrian Otaegui	0.52%	192	251	0.10%	15	-0.1	Unibet: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alejandro Del Rey	0.95%	105	101		42
Andy Sullivan	1.89%	53	51		52
Angel Ayora	3.21%	31	23		13
Angel Hidalgo	0.31%	323	301		38
Antoine Rozner	1.56%	64	81	0.30%	10	-0.3	Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ashun Wu	0.31%	323	301		59
Calum Hill	0.93%	108	126	0.10%	47	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
Connor Syme	0.46%	217	226		30
Dan Bradbury	1.15%	87	91	0.10%	30	-0.1	BetMGM: 90/1, 5pl, 1/5
Daniel Gavins	0.00%	10000	5001		38
Daniel Hillier	2.30%	43	34		2
Danny Willett	0.23%	435	401		45
Darius Van Driel	0.36%	278	301		42
David Puig	3.45%	29	21		3
David Ravetto	0.41%	244	201		57
Dylan Frittelli	0.39%	256	301	0.10%	10	-0.1	Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/5
Dylan Naidoo	0.11%	909	1001		58
Eugenio Chacarra	1.50%	67	61		15
Ewen Ferguson	1.89%	53	61	0.30%	20	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 7pl, 1/5
Francesco Molinari	1.57%	64	81	0.30%	47	-0.3	Ladbrokes: 66/1, 7pl, 1/5
Frederic Lacroix	0.51%	196	126		33
Grant Forrest	0.90%	111	111		20
Guido Migliozzi	0.55%	182	176		33
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.03%	97	111	0.10%	30	-0.1	Betfred: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.47%	213	301	0.10%	15	-0.1	Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jayden Schaper	4.49%	22	17		20
Joakim Lagergren	0.86%	116	101		27
Johannes Veerman	0.35%	286	226		54
Joost Luiten	1.68%	60	71	0.30%	20	-0.3	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/5
Julien Guerrier	1.29%	78	111	0.40%	3	3.875	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Junghwan Lee	0.25%	400	351		33
Marcel Siem	0.43%	233	301	0.10%	13	-0.1	Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/5
Marcus Armitage	1.22%	82	91	0.10%	7	-0.1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/5
Martin Couvra	1.00%	100	126	0.20%	42	-0.2	Unibet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matt Wallace	2.66%	38	34		7
Matteo Manassero	0.78%	128	176	0.20%	38	-0.2	Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Nacho Elvira	0.57%	175	176		1
Nicolai Hojgaard	4.42%	23	17		52
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.29%	345	301		47
Niklas Norgaard Moller	1.14%	88	81		33
Ockie Strydom	0.06%	1667	1501		56
Oliver Lindell	1.52%	66	71	0.10%	15	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 55/1, 7pl, 1/5
Pablo Larrazabal	0.37%	270	351	0.10%	54	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 5pl, 1/5
Padraig Harrington	0.18%	556	401		46
Patrick Reed	2.40%	42	31		26
Paul Waring	0.18%	556	251		27
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	3.88%	26	23		19
Richard Mansell	1.26%	79	81
Rikuya Hoshino	0.50%	200	176		47
Rory Mcilroy	11.30%	8.8	4.35		3
Ryan Fox	2.69%	37	41	0.30%	27	-0.3	Unibet: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryggs Johnston	0.14%	714	751		33
Shane Lowry	4.74%	21	17		3
Shaun Norris	0.88%	114	126	0.10%	20	-0.1	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thorbjorn Olesen	3.38%	30	23		7
Thriston Lawrence	1.60%	63	36		10
Tom Mckibbin	3.66%	27	23		38
Tommy Fleetwood	12.52%	8	6		25
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.39%	256	251		47

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adrian Otaegui	1.01%	99	91		51
Alejandro Del Rey	1.35%	74	61		56
Andy Sullivan	2.01%	50	36		42
Angel Ayora	2.78%	36	23		4
Angel Hidalgo	0.78%	128	101		32
Antoine Rozner	1.83%	55	46		4
Ashun Wu	0.77%	130	91		45
Calum Hill	1.43%	70	61		19
Connor Syme	0.96%	104	91		2
Dan Bradbury	1.61%	62	51		19
Daniel Gavins	0.02%	5000	401		45
Daniel Hillier	2.30%	43	34		9
Danny Willett	0.64%	156	101		19
Darius Van Driel	0.92%	109	101		45
David Puig	2.97%	34	29		2
David Ravetto	0.95%	105	81		51
Dylan Frittelli	0.91%	110	101		19
Dylan Naidoo	0.47%	213	201		51
Eugenio Chacarra	1.76%	57	41		9
Ewen Ferguson	2.01%	50	51	0.10%	32	-0.1	Spreadex: 45/1, 5pl, 1/5
Francesco Molinari	1.82%	55	51		26
Frederic Lacroix	1.01%	99	67		26
Grant Forrest	1.35%	74	61		26
Guido Migliozzi	1.05%	95	71		32
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.45%	69	61		58
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.94%	106	101		19
Jayden Schaper	3.36%	30	26		9
Joakim Lagergren	1.36%	74	61		26
Johannes Veerman	0.89%	112	71		51
Joost Luiten	1.90%	53	46		32
Julien Guerrier	1.58%	63	56		4
Junghwan Lee	0.71%	141	91		42
Marcel Siem	0.99%	101	101		32
Marcus Armitage	1.60%	63	51		9
Martin Couvra	1.49%	67	67		32
Matt Wallace	2.39%	42	41		4
Matteo Manassero	1.25%	80	71		26
Nacho Elvira	1.08%	93	76		9
Nicolai Hojgaard	3.46%	29	26		45
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.75%	133	101		51
Niklas Norgaard Moller	1.55%	65	56		56
Ockie Strydom	0.32%	313	251		59
Oliver Lindell	1.77%	56	46		4
Pablo Larrazabal	0.85%	118	101		9
Padraig Harrington	0.59%	169	101		32
Patrick Reed	2.37%	42	36		9
Paul Waring	0.55%	182	91		32
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	3.11%	32	23		26
Richard Mansell	1.64%	61	46
Rikuya Hoshino	1.06%	94	67		45
Rory Mcilroy	5.87%	17	10		1
Ryan Fox	2.47%	40	41		32
Ryggs Johnston	0.49%	204	181		19
Shane Lowry	3.47%	29	26		9
Shaun Norris	1.29%	78	61		32
Thorbjorn Olesen	2.80%	36	26		42
Thriston Lawrence	1.83%	55	36		9
Tom Mckibbin	2.80%	36	29		45
Tommy Fleetwood	6.42%	16	14		9
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.84%	119	81		19

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Julien Guerrier	1.29%	78	111	0.40%	3	19.375	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Ryan Fox	2.69%	37	41	0.30%	27	-2	Unibet: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Ewen Ferguson	1.89%	53	61	0.30%	20	-2	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 7pl, 1/5
FRL: Ewen Ferguson	2.01%	50	51	0.10%	32	-6	Spreadex: 45/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.