Simulation Results: Danish Golf Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.71% 141 161 0.10% 29 -0.1 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Adrian Otaegui 0.70% 143 151 67
Adrien Saddier 1.80% 56 61 0.20% 24 -0.2 Star Sports: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Albert Boneta 0.26% 385 451 123
Alexander Knappe 0.10% 1000 1501 58
Alexander Levy 0.32% 313 351 141
Alexander Settemsdal 0.10% 1000 601 113
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.17% 588 501 24
Andrea Pavan 0.70% 143 141 113
Andreas Halvorsen 0.77% 130 91 67
Andy Sullivan 2.61% 38 36 16
Bastien Amat 0.04% 2500 1001 85
Ben Schmidt 0.61% 164 131 3
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.08% 1250 1001 113
Benjamin Hebert 0.49% 204 201 146
Bjorn Akesson 0.07% 1429 1001 12
Brandon Wu 0.39% 256 451 0.20% 53 -0.2 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brett Coletta 0.00% 10000 3001 96
Callum Shinkwin 0.47% 213 141 47
Callum Tarren 0.60% 167 161 113
Casey Jarvis 0.54% 185 126 67
Chris Wood 0.22% 455 501 16
Christian Jacobsen 0.04% 2500 751 144
Christofer Blomstrand 0.14% 714 751 67
Clement Sordet 0.66% 152 151 67
Conor Purcell 0.44% 227 176 34
Corey Shaun 0.10% 1000 751 85
Daan Huizing 0.28% 357 351 123
Dale Whitnell 0.38% 263 501 0.20% 132 -0.2 Spreadex: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dan Bradbury 0.79% 127 141 0.10% 67 -0.1 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dan Erickson 0.39% 256 301 0.10% 123 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 300/1, 7pl, 1/5
Daniel Gale 0.07% 1429 551 132
Daniel Young 0.55% 182 126 53
Danny List 0.15% 667 501 113
David Horsey 0.23% 435 401 67
David Micheluzzi 0.94% 106 101 141
Davis Bryant 1.01% 99 111 0.10% 123 -0.1 Betfred: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Deon Germishuys 0.21% 476 551 67
Dermot Mcelroy 0.02% 5000 2501 132
Dylan Naidoo 0.25% 400 326 108
Elvis Smylie 0.66% 152 111 6
Erik Barnes 0.00% 10000 5001 152
Eugenio Chacarra 1.57% 64 41 16
Ewen Ferguson 1.39% 72 41 85
Francesco Molinari 0.89% 112 111 16
Frank Kennedy 0.02% 5000 3001 61
Freddy Schott 0.45% 222 226 66
Frederic Lacroix 1.13% 88 71 16
Gabriel Morgan 0.06% 1667 2501 85
Gavin Green 0.52% 192 151 40
Gregorio De Leo 0.24% 417 451 4
Gunner Wiebe 0.03% 3333 2001 58
Hamish Brown 0.34% 294 161 149
Herman Wibe Sekne 0.08% 1250 751 96
Hiroshi Iwata 0.14% 714 551 96
Ilirian Zalli 0.01% 10000 4001 155
Inhoi Hur 0.05% 2000 751 149
Jack Senior 0.95% 105 121 0.10% 47 -0.1 Spreadex: 120/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacob Skov Olesen 1.80% 56 41 123
James Morrison 0.21% 476 551 67
Jannik De Bruyn 0.29% 345 451 0.10% 67 -0.1 Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Scrivener 1.00% 100 121 0.20% 12 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 110/1, 7pl, 1/5
Jean Bekirian 0.06% 1667 1251 123
Jeff Winther 1.15% 87 81 40
Jens Dantorp 0.75% 133 126 67
Jens Fahrbring 0.13% 769 1001 113
Jeong Weon Ko 0.19% 526 551 34
Jeppe Kristian Andersen 0.13% 769 251 46
Jeremy Paul 0.97% 103 86 40
Jesper Svensson 3.48% 29 19 29
Joakim Lagergren 0.56% 179 111 96
Joe Dean 1.61% 62 61 85
Joel Girrbach 0.40% 250 176 123
Joel Moscatel 0.06% 1667 801 123
Johannes Veerman 0.59% 169 86 8
John Axelsen 0.16% 625 276 108
John Catlin 0.94% 106 76 85
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 0.13% 769 226 40
Joost Luiten 2.19% 46 41 40
Jordan Gumberg 0.20% 500 501 132
Julien Guerrier 1.23% 81 71 24
Justin Harding 0.16% 625 601 132
Justin Walters 0.15% 667 801 67
Kazuma Kobori 1.33% 75 81 0.10% 96 -0.1 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.57% 175 151 96
Kristian Hjort Bressum 0.00% 10000 1001 132
Kristoffer Reitan 3.24% 31 17 6
Louis Albertse 0.16% 625 1001 0.10% 96 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.12% 833 276 14
Lukas Nemecz 0.31% 323 226 67
Marc Warren 0.12% 833 401 56
Marcel Schneider 1.39% 72 71 47
Marco Penge 2.47% 40 17 1
Marcus Kinhult 0.74% 135 151 0.10% 85 -0.1 Bresbet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Martin Simonsen 0.14% 714 451 108
Martin Trainer 0.00% 10000 5001 146
Mats Ege 0.21% 476 301 11
Matt Wallace 5.10% 20 15 64
Matthew Baldwin 0.29% 345 401 61
Matthew Southgate 0.41% 244 201 47
Matthias Schwab 0.17% 588 1001 0.10% 113 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maximilian Kieffer 0.57% 175 161 40
Maximilian Rottluff 0.41% 244 276 61
Maximilian Steinlechner 0.47% 213 151 53
Michael Alexander Mjaaseth 0.00% 10000 276 96
Michael Miller 0.00% 10000 3001 67
Mikael Lindberg 0.18% 556 376 4
Minkyu Kim 0.26% 385 301 56
Neil Schietekat 0.03% 3333 2501 152
Nicolai Hojgaard 4.59% 22 13 34
Nicolai Kristensen 0.04% 2500 1501 151
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.67% 149 101 38
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.32% 313 326 24
Niklas Lemke 0.34% 294 226 14
Niklas Norgaard Moller 1.92% 52 26 16
Oliver Bekker 0.06% 1667 751 96
Oliver Lindell 2.16% 46 46 8
Oliver Wilson 0.22% 455 551 113
Pablo Ereno Perez 0.36% 278 101 96
Pierre Pineau 0.04% 2500 1001 96
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.49% 204 176 29
Rasmus Hojgaard 3.49% 29 15 2
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 3.61% 28 15 16
Ricardo Gouveia 0.62% 161 176 0.10% 67 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard Sterne 0.61% 164 226 0.20% 29 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Richie Ramsay 1.16% 86 111 0.30% 67 -0.3 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robin Petersson 0.13% 769 751 132
Robin Williams 0.73% 137 151 0.10% 38 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 7pl, 1/5
Ross Fisher 0.18% 556 751 108
Ryan Brehm 0.09% 1111 801 141
Ryan Van Velzen 0.38% 263 301 85
Ryggs Johnston 0.20% 500 376 47
Sam Hutsby 0.04% 2500 2001 67
Sami Valimaki 2.63% 38 34 8
Santiago Tarrio 0.10% 1000 1001 154
Scott Jamieson 0.61% 164 161 29
Sebastian Garcia 0.13% 769 501 58
Sebastian Soderberg 0.91% 110 81 108
Shubhankar Sharma 0.20% 500 551 67
Simon Forsstrom 0.31% 323 276 113
Soren Broholt Lind 0.01% 10000 4001 123
Sung Kang 0.06% 1667 2501 132
Tadeas Tetak 0.06% 1667 1251 96
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.34% 294 326 85
Thomas Aiken 0.42% 238 451 0.20% 47 -0.2 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Thomas Bjorn 0.24% 417 501 85
Thorbjorn Olesen 3.95% 25 19 16
Tom Lewis 0.21% 476 201 85
Troy Merritt 0.67% 149 141 113
Veer Ahlawat 0.29% 345 451 0.10% 34 -0.1 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Victor Bjorlow 0.01% 10000 2001 144
Wenyi Ding 1.16% 86 76 24
Wil Besseling 0.16% 625 551 132
Yannik Paul 0.87% 115 121 155
Zander Lombard 0.19% 526 326 64
Zihao Jin 0.00% 10000 1251 146

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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