Simulation Results: China Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.73% 137 131 88
Adrian Otaegui 1.26% 79 81 26
Alejandro Del Rey 1.17% 85 46 60
Alexander Knappe 0.17% 588 501 49
Alexander Levy 0.12% 833 601 36
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.31% 323 401 0.10% 151 -0.1 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andrea Pavan 1.49% 67 61 88
Andreas Halvorsen 0.47% 213 101 56
Andrew Wilson 0.35% 286 176 126
Andy Sullivan 1.34% 75 67 106
Angel Ayora 1.12% 89 46 49
Angel Hidalgo 0.89% 112 111 66
Ashun Wu 0.39% 256 161 1
Ben Schmidt 0.30% 333 201 54
Benjamin Hebert 0.72% 139 151 0.10% 73 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bernd Wiesberger 0.50% 200 151 43
Bjorn Akesson 0.09% 1111 601 73
Bo Peng 0.51% 196 501 0.30% 149 -0.3 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bowen Chai 0.00% 10000 1501 80
Bowen Xiao 0.06% 1667 751 49
Brandon Robinson Thompson 2.46% 41 41 96
Brandon Stone 2.69% 37 41 0.30% 36 -0.3 QuinnBet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Wu 0.90% 111 111 10
Callum Tarren 0.53% 189 131 43
Calum Hill 1.32% 76 56 106
Casey Jarvis 0.65% 154 101 20
Cheng Jin 0.01% 10000 2501 106
Chuan-lin Jian 0.00% 10000 3001 63
Connor Syme 1.31% 76 71 96
Conor Purcell 0.23% 435 401 15
Daniel Hillier 1.20% 83 51 36
Deon Germishuys 0.59% 169 201 0.10% 88 -0.1 Skybet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Di Wu 0.00% 10000 4001 156
Dylan Naidoo 0.32% 313 151 80
Edan Cui 0.00% 10000 1001 80
Edoardo Molinari 1.19% 84 101 0.20% 36 -0.2 QuinnBet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Elvis Smylie 0.23% 435 251 15
Enhua Liu 0.01% 10000 4001 139
Eugenio Chacarra 4.32% 23 26 0.50% 4 0.85 Boyle Sports: 22/1, 8pl, 1/5
Ewen Ferguson 1.99% 50 36 32
Fabrizio Zanotti 0.90% 111 91 36
Gavin Green 0.97% 103 76 106
Gen Nagai 0.01% 10000 2501 135
George Worrall 0.00% 10000 3001 96
Gordan Brixi 0.00% 10000 2501 120
Grant Forrest 0.31% 323 161 80
Gregory Foo 0.00% 10000 2501 80
Guxin Chen 0.04% 2500 751 88
Haizhao Tang 0.00% 10000 4001 120
Hamish Brown 0.25% 400 201 115
Haotong Li 2.34% 43 23 4
Hongfu Wu 0.00% 10000 4001 153
Isaac Lam 0.00% 10000 2501 115
Ivan Cantero 0.56% 179 91 73
Jack Senior 0.41% 244 226 63
Jacob Skov Olesen 1.15% 87 71 8
Jake Vincent 0.06% 1667 1001 96
Jamie Donaldson 0.15% 667 501 56
Jan Schneider 0.02% 5000 751 106
Jannik De Bruyn 0.18% 556 251 22
Jason Scrivener 0.89% 112 101 43
Jeff Winther 0.79% 127 111 80
Jeong Weon Ko 0.55% 182 111 147
Jicheng Fan 0.00% 10000 4001 120
Jin Zhang 0.00% 10000 4001 96
Joakim Lagergren 0.33% 303 276 65
Joel Girrbach 0.20% 500 276 80
Joel Moscatel 0.15% 667 501 36
Johannes Veerman 1.21% 83 46 73
Joost Luiten 2.97% 34 34 14
Jordan Gumberg 0.42% 238 201 49
Jordan Smith 3.07% 33 26 2
Jorge Campillo 2.17% 46 41 73
Joshua Berry 0.37% 270 131 43
Julien Guerrier 2.16% 46 41 22
K.P. Lin 0.02% 5000 3001 115
Kazuma Kobori 0.98% 102 91 20
Keita Nakajima 5.34% 19 19 0.10% 96 -0.1 Betfred: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kento Nakai 0.00% 10000 4001 126
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.62% 161 91 10
Kristoffer Reitan 0.62% 161 111 69
Kymer Xuzhong Li 0.00% 10000 2001 149
Lawrence Ting 0.01% 10000 1001 60
Lianwei Zhang 0.00% 10000 4001 106
Linqiang Li 0.00% 10000 2501 69
Lloyd Jefferson Go 0.06% 1667 501 56
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.20% 500 401 135
Manuel Elvira 0.49% 204 161 120
Marcel Schneider 0.91% 110 91 10
Marco Penge 1.07% 93 67 26
Marcus Kinhult 0.75% 133 131 15
Martin Couvra 1.15% 87 81 73
Matthew Baldwin 0.08% 1250 601 54
Matthew Cheung 0.12% 833 251 80
Matthew Jordan 2.87% 35 26 32
Matthias Schwab 0.20% 500 351 147
Maximilian Kieffer 0.57% 175 161 49
Michael Regan Wong 0.00% 10000 4001 120
Mikael Lindberg 0.16% 625 451 88
Ming Pang 0.00% 10000 5001 155
Minkyu Kim 0.35% 286 151 15
Nacho Elvira 0.94% 106 111 26
Nan-nan Shen 0.00% 10000 3001 139
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.46% 217 161 96
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.27% 370 326 71
Niklas Lemke 0.58% 172 111 22
Ockie Strydom 0.08% 1250 501 115
Oliver Lindell 0.96% 104 81 66
Pablo Larrazabal 0.86% 116 91 56
Pierre Pineau 0.11% 909 501 96
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.13% 769 501 60
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 4.32% 23 17 10
Ricardo Gouveia 1.09% 92 101 0.10% 32 -0.1 QuinnBet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richie Ramsay 1.08% 93 121 0.30% 135 -0.3 Spreadex: 120/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robin Williams 0.25% 400 201 43
Romain Langasque 2.15% 47 46 26
Ross Fisher 0.36% 278 251 66
Sam Bairstow 1.27% 79 46 22
Scott Jamieson 0.84% 119 101 36
Sean Crocker 0.74% 135 111 106
Sebastian Soderberg 1.77% 56 41 106
Senshou Cao 0.00% 10000 4001 106
Shaun Norris 1.76% 57 36 15
Shinichi Mizuno 0.01% 10000 2501 126
Shubhankar Sharma 0.79% 127 126 120
Shun Yat Hak 0.02% 5000 751 72
Sydney Chung 0.00% 10000 2501 139
Taichi Kho 0.89% 112 81 32
Takumi Hayashi 0.00% 10000 3001 88
Tao Deng 0.00% 10000 4001 88
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.74% 135 111 7
Tom Vaillant 0.74% 135 111 26
Wang Ngai Shen 0.01% 10000 3001 88
Wenyi Ding 1.80% 56 26 8
Wocheng Ye 0.00% 10000 4001 139
Xihuan Chang 0.00% 10000 601 126
Xuewen Luo 0.06% 1667 115
Yang Tong 0.00% 10000 2501 126
Yanhan Zhou 0.11% 909 251 43
Yannik Paul 1.11% 90 91 3
Yihao Fu 0.00% 10000 4001 139
Yi-Long Chen 0.00% 10000 1001 154
Yi-Nong Yang 0.00% 10000 4001 146
Yi-Tseng Huang 0.01% 10000 2501 126
Yu Fang 0.00% 10000 4001 126
Yu-Jui Liu 0.00% 10000 3001 96
Yuto Katsuragawa 1.57% 64 91 0.50% 73 -0.5 Betfred: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuze Zhang 0.00% 10000 3001 126
Zander Lombard 0.10% 1000 276 152
Zecheng Dou 0.89% 112 67 4
Zhengda Li 0.00% 10000 1501 139
Zhengkai Bai 0.06% 1667 501 26
Zhengqian Li 0.00% 10000 2001 96
Zi Wang 0.00% 10000 4001 139
Zihao Chen (Sept1996) 0.00% 10000 2001 135
Zihao Jin 0.00% 10000 151 126

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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