Simulation Results: China Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	0.33%	303	176		46
Adri Arnaus	0.16%	625	251		67
Adrian Otaegui	1.48%	68	46		2
Albin Bergstrom	0.21%	476	401		67
Alejandro Del Rey	0.94%	106	51		8
Alexander Levy	0.70%	143	111		38
Andrew Johnston	0.17%	588	151		25
Andy Sullivan	2.77%	36	36		112
Angel Ayora	5.37%	19	12		33
Angel Hidalgo	0.21%	476	251		19
Anthony Quayle	0.42%	238	176		8
Antoine Rozner	1.78%	56	41		8
Ashun Wu	0.49%	204	101		8
Ben Schmidt	0.82%	122	81		86
Bernd Wiesberger	1.26%	79	61		1
Bo Jin	0.17%	588	251		119
Bo Peng	0.18%	556	501		13
Bowen Chai	0.30%	333	126		38
Bowen Xiao	0.39%	256	226		66
Cameron Adam	0.51%	196	251	0.10%	58	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charles Wang	0.07%	1429	1001		67
Connor Mckinney	0.20%	500	601		138
Connor Syme	0.59%	169	126		151
Daniel Hillier	5.82%	17	12		67
Daniel Rodrigues	1.04%	96	126	0.20%	16	-0.2	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Van Tonder	0.75%	133	61		125
Daniel Young	0.61%	164	176		19
Darius Van Driel	1.01%	99	81		8
David Law	0.88%	114	91		38
David Micheluzzi	0.36%	278	201		125
David Ravetto	0.72%	139	81		46
Davis Bryant	0.50%	200	151		19
Di Wu	0.01%	10000	3001		86
Dylan Naidoo	0.12%	833	651		25
Enhua Liu	0.01%	10000	3001		86
Euan Walker	0.93%	108	126	0.10%	86	-0.1	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eugenio Chacarra	4.52%	22	21		33
Ewen Ferguson	3.61%	28	26		86
Felix Jordansson	0.00%	10000	4001		142
Felix Mory	0.34%	294	351	0.10%	86	-0.1	Betfred: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Filippo Celli	0.14%	714	251		81
Freddy Schott	1.09%	92	76		5
Frederic Lacroix	1.43%	70	51		112
Gregorio De Leo	0.61%	164	101		16
Guido Migliozzi	0.71%	141	101		13
Guxin Chen	0.10%	1000	601		151
Haizhao Tang	0.02%	5000	1501		149
Han Xue	0.01%	10000	2501		134
Haoyi Wang	0.02%	5000	1251		119
Hongfu Wu	0.01%	10000	1001		119
Hugo Townsend	0.73%	137	101		52
Isaac Lam	0.02%	5000	2501		60
Ivan Cantero	0.35%	286	151		138
Jack Senior	0.71%	141	201	0.20%	112	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.89%	112	86		33
Jake Vincent	0.09%	1111	2001		134
Jan Schneider	0.16%	625	401		81
Jason Scrivener	0.95%	105	91		67
Jeff Burton	0.04%	2500	5001		130
Jeff Winther	0.52%	192	201		25
Jens Dantorp	0.46%	217	251	0.10%	67	-0.1	Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeong Weon Ko	0.03%	3333	601		112
Jicheng Fan	0.01%	10000	2501		125
Jin Han	0.00%	10000	1001		130
Joakim Lagergren	0.37%	270	101		63
Joel Girrbach	0.68%	147	101		119
Johannes Veerman	1.28%	78	56		104
Jordan Gumberg	0.79%	127	111		130
Jorge Campillo	3.22%	31	26		134
Joshua Berry	0.02%	5000	601		43
Jui-Shen Lee	0.00%	10000	4001		145
Junghyun Um	0.02%	5000	2001		104
Junseo Lee	0.00%	10000	4001		138
Justin Sui	0.04%	2500	1501		81
Kakeru Ozeki	0.02%	5000	2001		99
Kazuma Kobori	1.65%	61	51		58
Kevin Na	0.37%	270	151		60
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.98%	102	91		13
Kota Kaneko	1.49%	67	61		19
Kuang Yang	0.09%	1111	601		38
Kuangyu Chen	0.00%	10000	501		25
Lawrence Ting	0.00%	10000	2501		142
Linqiang Li	0.00%	10000	2501
Lloyd Jefferson Go	0.06%	1667	1001		65
M.J. Daffue	0.66%	152	76		86
Malcolm Ting	0.01%	10000	2501		148
Manuel Elvira	0.95%	105	76		99
Marcel Schneider	0.71%	141	91		50
Marcel Siem	0.64%	156	151		151
Marcus Kinhult	0.57%	175	126		25
Matteo Manassero	1.95%	51	41		81
Matthew Baldwin	0.40%	250	301	0.10%	50	-0.1	Unibet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.54%	185	111		25
Mengyang Li	0.00%	10000	1501		130
Michael Hollick	0.34%	294	201		104
Mikael Lindberg	1.06%	94	51		3
Motin Yeung	0.04%	2500	2001		60
Nacho Elvira	1.26%	79	51		67
Nathan Kimsey	1.29%	78	41		6
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.53%	189	126		86
Niklas Norgaard Moller	1.12%	89	51		142
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.45%	222	126		16
Oliver Lindell	3.84%	26	19		33
Quentin Debove	0.12%	833	501		99
Quim Vidal	0.23%	435	351		19
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.03%	97	76		25
Renato Paratore	0.13%	769	301		86
Ricardo Gouveia	0.36%	278	126		104
Richard Sterne	0.93%	108	126	0.10%	119	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richie Ramsay	0.55%	182	141		119
Rikuya Hoshino	0.63%	159	101		43
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.30%	333	201		67
Romain Langasque	1.23%	81	67		52
Ross Fisher	0.28%	357	251		46
Ryan Peake	0.21%	476	601		86
Ryggs Johnston	0.20%	500	276		134
Sam Bairstow	0.92%	109	71		43
Sampson Zheng	0.80%	125	71		38
Scott Jamieson	0.65%	154	101		81
Sebastian Garcia	0.49%	204	126		52
Sebastian Soderberg	0.71%	141	91		67
Senshou Cao	0.00%	10000	2501		52
Shaun Norris	0.62%	161	141		4
Shawn Lu	0.04%	2500	1001		112
Shinichi Mizuno	0.01%	10000	2001		86
Shubhankar Sharma	0.60%	167	151		67
Shun Yat Hak	0.09%	1111	1501		112
Stefano Mazzoli	0.32%	313	251		104
Takumi Hayashi	0.01%	10000	3001		86
Tao Deng	0.08%	1250	1001		104
Thriston Lawrence	2.36%	42	34		67
Tobias Jonsson	0.62%	161	176	0.10%	67	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Todd Clements	1.09%	92	61		67
Tom Vaillant	1.08%	93	76		6
Tu-Xuan Wu	0.00%	10000			138
Wang Ngai Shen	0.02%	5000	2501		86
Wenyi Ding	2.58%	39	26		25
Wocheng Ye	0.01%	10000	1501		125
Xinjun Zhang	0.00%	10000	2001		150
Xirong Cheng	0.03%	3333	1001		104
Xuewen Luo	0.01%	10000			52
Yang Tong	0.07%	1429	2001		151
Yanhan Zhou	0.96%	104	41		52
Yanwei Liu	0.12%	833	751		145
Yu Fang	0.02%	5000	1001		104
Yue Liu	0.08%	1250	601		63
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.95%	105	111		46
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.41%	244	451	0.20%	151	-0.2	Unibet: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yuze Zhang	0.01%	10000	5001		147
Zander Lombard	0.33%	303	126		33
Zhengkai Bai	0.11%	909	301		99
Zi Wang	0.04%	2500	1001		125
Zi-Han She	0.02%	5000	2001		67
Zihao Chen (Sept1996)	0.00%	10000	3001		112
Zihao Jin	0.33%	303	201		19
Zijie Huang	0.02%	5000	1251		99

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Daniel Rodrigues	1.04%	96	126	0.20%	16	-2	Unibet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Jack Senior	0.71%	141	201	0.20%	112	-2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Yuvraj Sandhu	0.41%	244	451	0.20%	151	-2	Unibet: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.