Simulation Results: The Open Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Rai 1.03% 97 91 34
Adam Scott 1.30% 77 71 144
Adrien Saddier 0.24% 417 501 52
Akshay Bhatia 0.46% 217 201 30
Aldrich Potgieter 0.20% 500 251 113
Andrew Novak 0.70% 143 176 0.10% 63 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 8pl, 1/5
Angel Hidalgo 0.04% 2500 2501 79
Antoine Rozner 0.29% 345 351 59
Ben Griffin 1.00% 100 101 71
Brian Campbell 0.16% 625 451 79
Brian Harman 0.73% 137 126 10
Brooks Koepka 0.53% 189 81 130
Bryan Newman 0.00% 10000 5001 156
Bryson Dechambeau 1.43% 70 26 10
Bud Cauley 0.48% 208 226 113
Byeong Hun An 0.59% 169 201 0.10% 113 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 8pl, 1/5
Cameron Adam 0.00% 10000 2501 79
Cameron Smith 0.67% 149 126 137
Cameron Young 0.72% 139 91 99
Carlos Ortiz 0.40% 250 201 79
Chris Gotterup 0.72% 139 91 3
Chris Kirk 0.44% 227 301 0.10% 113 -0.1 Priced Up: 225/1, 10pl, 1/5
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.82% 122 176 0.30% 34 -0.3 William Hill: 175/1, 7pl, 1/4
Collin Morikawa 1.44% 69 36 130
Connor Graham 0.00% 10000 2001 150
Corey Conners 1.43% 70 76 0.10% 10 0.0625 Ladbrokes: 60/1, 10pl, 1/5
Curtis Knipes 0.00% 10000 5001 122
Curtis Luck 0.01% 10000 2501 137
Daniel Berger 0.65% 154 126 30
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 0.29% 345 251 130
Daniel Hillier 0.15% 667 601 71
Daniel Van Tonder 0.04% 2500 1001 155
Daniel Young 0.04% 2500 2501 99
Darren Clarke 0.02% 5000 5001 122
Darren Fichardt 0.03% 3333 2501 130
Davis Thompson 0.51% 196 201 122
Dean Burmester 0.24% 417 201 61
Denny Mccarthy 0.70% 143 201 0.20% 79 -0.2 William Hill: 200/1, 7pl, 1/4
Dustin Johnson 0.35% 286 176 23
Dylan Naidoo 0.02% 5000 3001 99
Elvis Smylie 0.07% 1429 1001 79
Ethan Fang 0.00% 10000 1001 79
Filip Jakubcik 0.00% 10000 2001 122
Francesco Molinari 0.16% 625 751 63
Frazer Jones 0.00% 10000 5001 137
George Bloor 0.00% 10000 5001 79
Guido Migliozzi 0.05% 2000 1251 152
Haotong Li 0.15% 667 351 4
Harris English 1.20% 83 101 0.20% 2 1.4 Ladbrokes: 75/1, 10pl, 1/5
Harry Hall 1.31% 76 101 0.30% 28 -0.3 William Hill: 85/1, 7pl, 1/4
Henrik Stenson 0.09% 1111 751 45
Hideki Matsuyama 0.94% 106 91 16
J.J. Spaun 0.88% 114 116 23
J.T. Poston 0.48% 208 226 130
Jacob Skov Olesen 0.12% 833 701 68
Jason Day 1.50% 67 91 0.40% 71 -0.4 William Hill: 80/1, 7pl, 1/4
Jason Kokrak 0.20% 500 751 0.10% 40 -0.1 Priced Up: 500/1, 10pl, 1/5
Jesper Sandborg 0.00% 10000 5001 99
Jesper Svensson 0.43% 233 301 0.10% 16 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 8pl, 1/5
Jhonattan Vegas 0.31% 323 351 56
Joaquin Niemann 1.36% 74 61 71
John Axelsen 0.02% 5000 5001 79
John Catlin 0.15% 667 751 99
John Parry 0.20% 500 476 16
Jon Rahm 4.92% 20 15 34
Jordan Smith 0.77% 130 161 0.10% 45 -0.1 William Hill: 150/1, 7pl, 1/4
Jordan Spieth 0.98% 102 67 40
Julien Guerrier 0.13% 769 751 79
Justin Hastings 0.10% 1000 2001 0.10% 122 -0.1 Bet365: 2000/1, 8pl, 1/5
Justin Leonard 0.01% 10000 5001 59
Justin Rose 1.02% 98 81 16
Justin Suh 0.10% 1000 2001 0.10% 71 -0.1 Bresbet: 2000/1, 6pl, 1/5
Justin Thomas 2.01% 50 56 0.20% 34 -0.2 Bet365: 55/1, 8pl, 1/5
Justin Walters 0.00% 10000 2501 137
K.J. Choi 0.01% 10000 3001 154
Keegan Bradley 0.94% 106 91 30
Kevin Yu 0.48% 208 201 79
Kristoffer Reitan 0.40% 250 251 30
Laurie Canter 0.56% 179 251 0.20% 122 -0.2 Bet365: 250/1, 8pl, 1/5
Lee Westwood 0.07% 1429 551 34
Louis Oosthuizen 0.30% 333 201 122
Lucas Glover 0.75% 133 251 0.40% 23 -0.4 Bet365: 250/1, 8pl, 1/5
Lucas Herbert 0.28% 357 201 99
Ludvig Aberg 1.45% 69 29 23
Mackenzie Hughes 0.43% 233 301 0.10% 130 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 250/1, 10pl, 1/5
Marc Leishman 0.15% 667 301 52
Marco Penge 0.42% 238 126 99
Martin Couvra 0.19% 526 351 144
Matt Fitzpatrick 1.72% 58 46 4
Matt Mccarty 0.53% 189 301 0.20% 79 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 250/1, 10pl, 1/5
Matt Wallace 0.61% 164 151 45
Matteo Manassero 0.25% 400 351 71
Matthew Jordan 0.17% 588 351 45
Matthieu Pavon 0.10% 1000 501 113
Matti Schmid 0.66% 152 251 0.30% 69 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 175/1, 10pl, 1/5
Maverick Mcnealy 1.12% 89 126 0.30% 23 -0.3 BetVictor: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Max Greyserman 0.78% 128 201 0.30% 79 -0.3 Bet365: 175/1, 8pl, 1/5
Michael Kim 0.64% 156 251 0.20% 99 -0.2 Bet365: 225/1, 8pl, 1/5
Mikiya Akutsu 0.03% 3333 4001 144
Min Woo Lee 0.62% 161 111 113
Nathan Kimsey 0.11% 909 751 40
Nick Taylor 0.93% 108 126 0.10% 79 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 100/1, 10pl, 1/5
Nico Echavarria 0.40% 250 276 99
Nicolai Hojgaard 0.64% 156 126 14
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.30% 333 251 99
O.J. Farrell 0.00% 10000 5001 99
Oliver Lindell 0.12% 833 1001 28
Padraig Harrington 0.12% 833 351 144
Patrick Cantlay 1.60% 63 67 0.10% 79 -0.1 William Hill: 60/1, 7pl, 1/4
Patrick Reed 1.19% 84 81 113
Paul Waring 0.08% 1250
Phil Mickelson 0.11% 909 401 56
Rasmus Hojgaard 0.41% 244 161 16
Richard Teder 0.00% 10000 4001 137
Rickie Fowler 0.77% 130 151 0.10% 14 -0.1 Priced Up: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Riki Kawamoto 0.05% 2000 2501 63
Rikuya Hoshino 0.16% 625 751 71
Robert Macintyre 1.60% 63 36 7
Romain Langasque 0.15% 667 751 61
Rory Mcilroy 4.09% 24 8 7
Russell Henley 2.65% 38 61 1.00% 10 -1 Bet365: 55/1, 8pl, 1/5
Ryan Fox 0.80% 125 91 71
Ryan Peake 0.01% 10000 5001 137
Ryggs Johnston 0.02% 5000 2501 63
Sadom Kaewkanjana 0.06% 1667 1251 113
Sahith Theegala 0.16% 625 376 130
Sam Burns 1.78% 56 81 0.60% 45 -0.6 William Hill: 66/1, 7pl, 1/4
Sampson Zheng 0.04% 2500 137
Scottie Scheffler 7.73% 13 7 1
Sebastian Cave 0.00% 10000 5001 151
Sebastian Soderberg 0.21% 476 751 0.10% 70 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 8pl, 1/5
Sepp Straka 1.53% 65 56 52
Sergio Garcia 0.23% 435 201 34
Shane Lowry 1.28% 78 34 40
Shaun Norris 0.16% 625 751 113
Shugo Imahira 0.02% 5000 4001 144
Si Woo Kim 1.17% 85 111 0.30% 79 -0.3 Betfred: 90/1, 10pl, 1/5
Stephan Jaeger 0.24% 417 401 122
Stewart Cink 0.18% 556 751 99
Sungjae Im 0.51% 196 176 52
Takumi Kanaya 0.14% 714 601 40
Taylor Pendrith 1.34% 75 151 0.70% 79 -0.7 BetVictor: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Detry 0.51% 196 201 45
Thorbjorn Olesen 0.69% 145 201 0.20% 99 -0.2 William Hill: 175/1, 7pl, 1/4
Thriston Lawrence 0.46% 217 201 45
Tom Hoge 0.32% 313 351 152
Tom Kim 0.65% 154 151 79
Tom Mckibbin 0.68% 147 126 79
Tommy Fleetwood 3.33% 30 26 16
Tony Finau 0.41% 244 176 56
Tyrrell Hatton 2.39% 42 31 16
Viktor Hovland 2.21% 45 31 63
Wyndham Clark 0.69% 145 126 4
Xander Schauffele 2.49% 40 26 7
Young-han Song 0.04% 2500 2501 99
Zach Johnson 0.00% 10000 601 79

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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