Simulation Results: British Masters

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Rai 4.57% 22 11 33
Adrian Otaegui 0.36% 278 326 0.10% 83 -0.1 Spreadex: 325/1, 6pl, 1/5
Albert Boneta 0.10% 1000 751 71
Alejandro Del Rey 0.32% 313 226 57
Alex Fitzpatrick 0.86% 116 111 8
Alex Noren 4.23% 24 23 1
Alexander Knappe 0.04% 2500 3001 155
Alexander Levy 0.11% 909 1001 135
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.13% 769 751 156
Andrea Pavan 0.30% 333 226 64
Andreas Halvorsen 0.32% 313 251 94
Andrew Wilson 0.30% 333 301 102
Andy Sullivan 2.20% 45 41 5
Angel Ayora 0.57% 175 86 13
Angel Hidalgo 0.15% 667 451 13
Ben Schmidt 0.60% 167 126 83
Benjamin Hebert 0.20% 500 501 135
Bernd Wiesberger 0.31% 323 301 69
Bjorn Akesson 0.10% 1000 1501 83
Brandon Robinson Thompson 0.70% 143 131 94
Brandon Stone 0.81% 123 111 27
Brandon Wu 0.22% 455 1251 0.10% 123 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandt Snedeker 0.49% 204 226 50
Callum Shinkwin 0.28% 357 301 143
Callum Tarren 0.26% 385 401 46
Calum Hill 0.54% 185 121 71
Cameron Adam 0.16% 625 501 19
Casey Jarvis 0.24% 417 276 71
Chris Wood 0.26% 385 401 94
Clement Sordet 0.28% 357 276 33
Connor Syme 0.34% 294 226 83
Conor Purcell 0.29% 345 301 71
Corey Shaun 0.05% 2000 2001 123
Dale Whitnell 0.11% 909 601 102
Dan Bradbury 0.51% 196 176 19
Dan Erickson 0.16% 625 1001 0.10% 123 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 1000/1, 8pl, 1/5
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 0.79% 127 67 8
Daniel Gale 0.04% 2500 2001 83
Daniel Hillier 0.70% 143 111 83
Danny List 0.05% 2000 2001 71
Danny Willett 0.40% 250 181 19
Darius Van Driel 0.27% 370 301 153
Darren Fichardt 0.18% 556 601 13
David Micheluzzi 0.31% 323 251 140
David Ravetto 0.27% 370 276 102
Davis Bryant 0.35% 286 226 13
Deon Germishuys 0.11% 909 801 102
Dylan Frittelli 0.30% 333 276 135
Dylan Naidoo 0.08% 1250 751 102
Eddie Pepperell 0.58% 172 126 83
Elvis Smylie 0.50% 200 111 33
Erik Barnes 0.00% 10000 5001 153
Eugenio Chacarra 1.02% 98 67 102
Ewen Ferguson 0.76% 132 76 61
Fabrizio Zanotti 0.45% 222 201 148
Francesco Laporta 1.21% 83 61 71
Freddy Schott 0.08% 1250 601 140
Frederic Lacroix 0.93% 108 96 61
Gavin Green 0.48% 208 201 71
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 0.01% 10000 3001 83
Grant Forrest 0.84% 119 81 71
Gregorio De Leo 0.28% 357 301 71
Guido Migliozzi 0.17% 588 401 41
Hamish Brown 0.11% 909 501 135
Haotong Li 0.87% 115 46 8
Harrison Endycott 0.06% 1667 1501 102
Ivan Cantero 0.25% 400 251 123
Jack Senior 0.35% 286 226 102
Jacob Skov Olesen 0.63% 159 111 94
Jacques Kruyswijk 0.92% 109 111 143
Jannik De Bruyn 0.13% 769 751 123
Jason Scrivener 0.82% 122 126 24
Jayden Schaper 0.71% 141 86 54
Jean Bekirian 0.02% 5000 2501 117
Jeff Winther 0.74% 135 161 0.10% 41 -0.1 Betfred: 110/1, 10pl, 1/5
Jens Dantorp 0.32% 313 176 148
Jeong Weon Ko 0.17% 588 751 140
Jesper Svensson 2.80% 36 26 71
Joe Dean 0.62% 161 151 64
Joel Girrbach 0.16% 625 501 61
Joel Moscatel 0.02% 5000 2501 24
Johannes Veerman 0.99% 101 81 57
John Parry 1.46% 68 51 43
Jordan Gumberg 0.06% 1667 1501 46
Jordan Smith 3.81% 26 23 33
Jorge Campillo 1.35% 74 86 0.20% 50 -0.2 Betfred: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
Joshua Berry 0.14% 714 351 150
Julien Brun 0.09% 1111 1001 94
Julien Guerrier 0.87% 115 111 8
Kazuma Kobori 0.57% 175 176 2
Keita Nakajima 1.01% 99 76 4
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.33% 303 251 27
Kristoffer Reitan 2.42% 41 29 46
Laurie Canter 1.52% 66 41 64
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.23% 435 351 102
Luke Donald 0.07% 1429 601 102
M.J. Daffue 0.09% 1111 451 64
Manuel Elvira 0.13% 769 401 27
Marc Warren 0.04% 2500 1001 123
Marcel Schneider 0.67% 149 141 19
Marcel Siem 0.42% 238 161 8
Marco Penge 1.85% 54 19 6
Marcus Armitage 0.41% 244 161 94
Martin Couvra 0.45% 222 91 117
Martin Trainer 0.00% 10000 4001 152
Matt Fitzpatrick 7.62% 13 12 6
Matt Wallace 3.07% 33 26 33
Matthew Baldwin 0.18% 556 1001 0.10% 69 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Jordan 0.85% 118 81 33
Matthew Southgate 0.23% 435 376 117
Matthias Schwab 0.07% 1429 2501 54
Maximilian Kieffer 0.38% 263 251 50
Mikael Lindberg 0.26% 385 301 27
Minkyu Kim 0.14% 714 501 83
Nacho Elvira 0.13% 769 501 150
Nathan Kimsey 0.35% 286 151 123
Nicolai Hojgaard 2.49% 40 26 2
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.35% 286 226 117
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.23% 435 501 83
Niklas Lemke 0.32% 313 376 0.10% 27 -0.1 Spreadex: 375/1, 6pl, 1/5
Niklas Norgaard Moller 2.15% 47 34 71
Ockie Strydom 0.01% 10000 4001 143
Pablo Ereno Perez 0.14% 714 601 68
Patrick Rodgers 1.13% 88 51 123
Paul O'Hara 0.01% 10000 3001 123
Pierre Pineau 0.02% 5000 4001 143
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.26% 385 276 43
Rasmus Hojgaard 5.08% 20 19 13
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 2.91% 34 21 13
Ricardo Gouveia 0.27% 370 376 50
Richard Mansell 0.78% 128 71 59
Richard Sterne 0.30% 333 301 102
Richie Ramsay 0.61% 164 176 83
Robin Williams 0.36% 278 251 123
Romain Langasque 0.77% 130 121 27
Ross Fisher 0.06% 1667 1501 33
Ryan Van Velzen 0.17% 588 1251 0.10% 94 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryggs Johnston 0.09% 1111 501 123
Sam Bairstow 0.75% 133 111 117
Sean Crocker 0.25% 400 201 71
Shubhankar Sharma 0.09% 1111 1501 102
Simon Forsstrom 0.07% 1429 751 19
Tadeas Tetak 0.02% 5000 3001 123
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.13% 769 751 102
Thomas Aiken 0.19% 526 751 0.10% 59 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 750/1, 8pl, 1/5
Thriston Lawrence 1.52% 66 41 94
Toby Hunt 0.01% 10000 2501 33
Todd Clements 1.03% 97 91 102
Tom Vaillant 0.41% 244 276 24
Ugo Coussaud 0.60% 167 201 0.10% 46 -0.1 Betfred: 150/1, 10pl, 1/5
Veer Ahlawat 0.11% 909 751 54
Wenyi Ding 0.73% 137 111 43
Yannik Paul 0.50% 200 251 0.10% 143 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.52% 192 176 135
Zander Lombard 0.08% 1250 601 102
Zihao Jin 0.00% 10000 3001 117

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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