Simulation Results: Bahrain Championship

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill	0.43%	233	226
Adam Blomme	0.03%	3333	2001		131
Adrian Otaegui	0.50%	200	276	0.10%	90	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ahmed Al Zayed	0.00%	10000	5001		137
Albin Bergstrom	0.08%	1250	501		67
Alejandro Del Rey	0.89%	112	41		34
Alex Fitzpatrick	1.43%	70	51		16
Alexander Levy	0.43%	233	301	0.10%	115	-0.1	10Bet: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ali Mohamed Alkowari	0.00%	10000	5001		128
Andrea Pavan	1.31%	76	71		9
Andreas Halvorsen	0.61%	164	131		34
Andrew Johnston	0.25%	400	176		47
Andy Sullivan	1.80%	56	46		124
Angel Ayora	3.01%	33	15		67
Angel Hidalgo	0.43%	233	201		110
Anthony Quayle	0.27%	370	201		31
Antoine Rozner	2.43%	41	36		115
Ben Schmidt	0.52%	192	141		16
Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.33%	75	91	0.20%	67	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Stone	0.75%	133	101		24
Calum Hill	0.65%	154	111		2
Cameron Adam	0.24%	417	351		128
Casey Jarvis	0.98%	102	61		9
Clement Charmasson	0.10%	1000	501		104
Connor Mckinney	0.06%	1667	351		63
Dan Bradbury	1.41%	71	51		80
Daniel Gavins	0.01%	10000	3001		136
Daniel Hillier	3.62%	28	19		4
Daniel Rodrigues	0.18%	556	351		31
Darren Fichardt	0.19%	526	751	0.10%	64	-0.1	QuinnBet: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
David Law	0.22%	455	251		80
David Micheluzzi	0.30%	333	451	0.10%	80	-0.1	Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/5
David Ravetto	0.29%	345	276		24
Davis Bryant	0.41%	244	251		64
Dylan Frittelli	0.61%	164	126		110
Dylan Naidoo	0.06%	1667	2001		54
Eugenio Chacarra	1.39%	72	51		41
Ewen Ferguson	1.47%	68	51		90
Felix Mory	0.09%	1111	451		67
Filippo Celli	0.23%	435	301		52
Francesco Laporta	1.14%	88	71		16
Freddy Schott	0.27%	370	201		1
Frederic Lacroix	1.06%	94	81		41
Grant Forrest	1.50%	67	46		7
Gregorio De Leo	0.47%	213	201		64
Guido Migliozzi	0.36%	278	251		47
Hennie Du Plessis	1.78%	56	56		16
Hugo Townsend	0.41%	244	201		61
Ivan Cantero	0.47%	213	126		54
J.C. Ritchie	0.74%	135	71		34
Jack Senior	0.43%	233	351	0.10%	80	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jacob Skov Olesen	0.85%	118	101		47
James Morrison	0.13%	769	751		54
Jason Scrivener	0.49%	204	301	0.20%	16	-0.2	QuinnBet: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jayden Schaper	4.48%	22	15		52
Jens Dantorp	0.40%	250	351	0.10%	16	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jeong Weon Ko	0.17%	588	601		124
Joakim Lagergren	1.25%	80	81		128
Joe Dean	0.50%	200	276	0.10%	34	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joel Girrbach	0.91%	110	111		31
Jonathan Broomhead	0.15%	667	276		13
Joost Luiten	2.16%	46	61	0.50%	24	-0.5	Boyle Sports: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Gumberg	0.17%	588	501		67
Jorge Campillo	1.96%	51	56	0.20%	16	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 50/1, 7pl, 1/5
Joshua Berry	0.06%	1667	1251		13
Julien Guerrier	3.35%	30	31	0.10%	24	-0.1	Unibet: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Junghwan Lee	0.20%	500	351		61
Kazuma Kobori	0.88%	114	176	0.30%	120	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Khalifa Almaraisi	0.00%	10000	5001		138
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.49%	204	201		80
Kota Kaneko	0.57%	175	151		47
Laurie Canter	2.08%	48	36		59
Manuel Elvira	0.73%	137	91		41
Marcel Schneider	1.38%	72	61		104
Marcel Siem	0.67%	149	201	0.20%	104	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Marcus Kinhult	0.20%	500	401		80
Martin Couvra	2.10%	48	41		24
Matteo Manassero	0.70%	143	181	0.10%	41	-0.1	QuinnBet: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthew Baldwin	0.07%	1429	1001		90
Matthew Jordan	0.82%	122	81		90
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.06%	1667	401		110
Michael Hollick	0.33%	303	201		47
Mikael Lindberg	1.00%	100	46		13
Nacho Elvira	0.70%	143	111		7
Nathan Kimsey	0.51%	196	176		9
Niklas Lemke	0.56%	179	201	0.10%	24	-0.1	10Bet: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Niklas Norgaard Moller	1.21%	83	51		67
Ockie Strydom	0.03%	3333	2001		110
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.32%	313	151		120
Oliver Lindell	1.98%	51	41		9
Pablo Larrazabal	0.31%	323	251		90
Padraig Harrington	0.17%	588	751		104
Patrick Reed	4.61%	22	19		2
Quentin Debove	0.04%	2500	401		90
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.20%	83	111	0.30%	16	-0.3	BetMGM: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Renato Paratore	0.20%	500	401		59
Ricardo Gouveia	1.08%	93	121	0.30%	67	-0.3	Unibet: 120/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard Sterne	0.44%	227	201		41
Richie Ramsay	1.26%	79	176	0.70%	80	-0.7	Boyle Sports: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rikuya Hoshino	1.03%	97	71		90
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.25%	400	201		120
Romain Langasque	1.17%	85	101	0.20%	67	-0.2	10Bet: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ross Fisher	0.29%	345	451	0.10%	135	-0.1	Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ryan Palmer	0.12%	833	1001		117
Ryan Peake	0.03%	3333	2001		134
Ryggs Johnston	0.13%	769	401		90
Sam Bairstow	1.02%	98	91		34
Scott Jamieson	0.65%	154	151		67
Sean Crocker	0.92%	109	91		67
Sebastian Garcia	0.16%	625	301		90
Sebastian Soderberg	0.63%	159	176	0.10%	104	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Sergio Garcia	1.10%	91	56		4
Shaun Norris	0.83%	120	251	0.40%	67	-0.4	QuinnBet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Shubhankar Sharma	0.17%	588	601		57
Stefano Mazzoli	0.28%	357	176		80
Taehoon Ok	0.17%	588	351		90
Thomas Detry	3.69%	27	21		80
Tobias Jonsson	0.18%	556	351		34
Todd Clements	0.61%	164	131		24
Tom Sloman	0.00%	10000	1001		124
Ugo Coussaud	1.23%	81	56		6
Wenyi Ding	2.19%	46	34		80
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.51%	196	181		131
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.31%	323	351		67
Zander Lombard	0.85%	118	67		90
Zubair Firdaus	0.00%	10000	5001		117

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Blomme	0.14%	714	351		81
Adrian Otaegui	0.45%	222	151		81
Ahmed Al Zayed	0.00%	10000	701		136
Albin Bergstrom	0.20%	500	251		58
Alejandro Del Rey	1.11%	90	51		1
Alex Fitzpatrick	0.90%	111	56		20
Alexander Levy	0.75%	133	151	0.10%	81	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ali Mohamed Alkowari	0.00%	10000	1251		134
Andrea Pavan	1.39%	72	81	0.20%	20	-0.2	Skybet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Andreas Halvorsen	0.53%	189	111		81
Andrew Johnston	0.43%	233	126		8
Andy Sullivan	0.96%	104	71		129
Angel Ayora	1.27%	79	34		32
Angel Hidalgo	0.47%	213	151		97
Anthony Quayle	0.66%	152	176	0.10%	97	-0.1	BetMGM: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Antoine Rozner	1.86%	54	51		118
Ashun Wu	0.47%	213	176		97
Ben Schmidt	0.90%	111	126	0.10%	14	-0.1	BetMGM: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.53%	189	126		58
Bernd Wiesberger	1.05%	95	101	0.10%	118	-0.1	Star Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.43%	70	81	0.20%	20	-0.2	Skybet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Brandon Stone	1.03%	97	81		14
Calum Hill	0.57%	175	101		8
Cameron Adam	0.60%	167	181		97
Casey Jarvis	0.70%	143	61		58
Clement Charmasson	0.39%	256	251		128
Connor Mckinney	0.18%	556	226		20
Dan Bradbury	0.84%	119	61		32
Daniel Gavins	0.14%	714	476		133
Daniel Hillier	2.26%	44	34		3
Daniel Rodrigues	0.32%	313	201		118
Daniel Van Tonder	0.44%	227	151		129
Daniel Young	0.43%	233	176		20
Darius Van Driel	0.60%	167	151		109
Darren Fichardt	0.55%	182	201	0.10%	58	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
David Law	0.28%	357	176		32
David Micheluzzi	0.38%	263	201		118
David Ravetto	0.65%	154	151		32
Davis Bryant	0.74%	135	151	0.10%	81	-0.1	BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Dylan Frittelli	0.94%	106	101		81
Dylan Naidoo	0.15%	667	301		58
Euan Walker	0.16%	625	251		109
Eugenio Chacarra	0.86%	116	56		32
Ewen Ferguson	1.47%	68	61		97
Felix Mory	0.27%	370	251		58
Filippo Celli	0.36%	278	176		97
Francesco Laporta	1.21%	83	81		32
Freddy Schott	0.39%	256	176		1
Frederic Lacroix	1.22%	82	71		32
Grant Forrest	0.92%	109	56		58
Gregorio De Leo	0.47%	213	176		8
Guido Migliozzi	0.45%	222	151		58
Hennie Du Plessis	0.99%	101	56		14
Hugo Townsend	0.48%	208	201		32
Ivan Cantero	0.50%	200	101		58
J.C. Ritchie	0.64%	156	81		58
Jack Senior	0.44%	227	201		97
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.10%	91	81		32
James Morrison	0.50%	200	201		14
Jason Scrivener	0.85%	118	151	0.20%	32	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jayden Schaper	2.60%	38	34		32
Jeff Winther	0.42%	238	176		81
Jens Dantorp	0.43%	233	201		32
Jeong Weon Ko	0.29%	345	201		118
Joakim Lagergren	0.79%	127	67		109
Joe Dean	0.78%	128	151	0.10%	58	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Joel Girrbach	0.63%	159	91		32
Johannes Veerman	0.92%	109	111		81
Jonathan Broomhead	0.26%	385	201		81
Joost Luiten	1.05%	95	67		58
Jordan Gumberg	0.57%	175	176		58
Jorge Campillo	1.63%	61	61		14
Joshua Berry	0.31%	323	251		32
Julien Guerrier	2.21%	45	46		20
Junghwan Lee	0.37%	270	176		32
Kazuma Kobori	0.63%	159	126		109
Khalifa Almaraisi	0.00%	10000	751		138
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.85%	118	151	0.20%	14	-0.2	BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kota Kaneko	0.91%	110	101		32
Laurie Canter	1.62%	62	46		3
Manuel Elvira	1.07%	93	81		58
Marcel Schneider	1.37%	73	61		58
Marcel Siem	0.62%	161	111		109
Marcus Kinhult	0.30%	333	176		97
Martin Couvra	1.00%	100	61		20
Matteo Manassero	0.60%	167	126		32
Matthew Baldwin	0.36%	278	276		32
Matthew Jordan	0.57%	175	91		58
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.40%	250	201		118
Michael Hollick	0.43%	233	176		32
Mikael Lindberg	0.66%	152	61		8
Nacho Elvira	1.02%	98	101		20
Nathan Kimsey	0.53%	189	151		81
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.86%	116	151	0.20%	3	2.28	BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Niklas Lemke	0.89%	112	126	0.10%	3	0.94	BetMGM: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.80%	125	56		81
Ockie Strydom	0.25%	400	276		58
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.40%	250	126		97
Oliver Lindell	1.68%	60	51		8
Pablo Larrazabal	0.40%	250	151		58
Padraig Harrington	0.25%	400	301		58
Patrick Reed	1.63%	61	41		58
Quentin Debove	0.24%	417	201		81
Quim Vidal	0.34%	294	251		118
Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.25%	80	111	0.40%	32	-0.4	Skybet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Renato Paratore	0.32%	313	201		81
Ricardo Gouveia	1.22%	82	101	0.20%	32	-0.2	Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Richard Sterne	0.48%	208	151		32
Richie Ramsay	0.79%	127	151	0.10%	20	-0.1	Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5
Rikuya Hoshino	0.69%	145	86		58
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.58%	172	176		118
Romain Langasque	0.77%	130	91		81
Ross Fisher	0.40%	250	201		134
Ryan Palmer	0.40%	250	251		97
Ryan Peake	0.14%	714	401		136
Ryggs Johnston	0.26%	385	201		109
Sam Bairstow	1.18%	85	76		32
Scott Jamieson	0.58%	172	126		97
Sean Crocker	1.15%	87	76		20
Sebastian Garcia	0.29%	345	176		129
Sebastian Soderberg	0.96%	104	151	0.30%	58	-0.3	BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sergio Garcia	1.25%	80	67		32
Shaun Norris	1.04%	96	111	0.10%	20	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
Shubhankar Sharma	0.28%	357	201		3
Stefano Mazzoli	0.37%	270	176		97
Taehoon Ok	0.53%	189	176		81
Thomas Detry	2.36%	42	36		32
Tobias Jonsson	0.57%	175	201	0.10%	20	-0.1	BetMGM: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Todd Clements	0.93%	108	101		58
Tom Sloman	0.11%	909	351		109
Tom Vaillant	0.70%	143	91		109
Ugo Coussaud	1.28%	78	61		8
Wenyi Ding	1.73%	58	46		81
Yanhan Zhou	0.63%	159	101		118
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.54%	185	151		129
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.74%	135	176	0.20%	32	-0.2	BetMGM: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Zander Lombard	0.64%	156	61		109
Zubair Firdaus	0.00%	10000	501		118

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Richie Ramsay	1.26%	79	176	0.70%	80	-2	Boyle Sports: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Joost Luiten	2.16%	46	61	0.50%	24	-2	Boyle Sports: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Shaun Norris	0.83%	120	251	0.40%	67	-2	QuinnBet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Rafa Cabrera Bello	1.25%	80	111	0.40%	32	-1	Skybet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Sebastian Soderberg	0.96%	104	151	0.30%	58	-1	BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Andrea Pavan	1.39%	72	81	0.20%	20	-1	Skybet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Brandon Robinson Thompson	1.43%	70	81	0.20%	14	-1	Skybet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Ricardo Gouveia	1.22%	82	101	0.20%	20	-1	Skybet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Jason Scrivener	0.85%	118	151	0.20%	32	-1	Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.