Simulation Results: Bahrain Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aadam Syed 0.00% 10000 1501 89
Aaron Cockerill 0.70% 143 276 0.30% 38 -0.3 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Adrian Otaegui 0.95% 105 126 0.20% 49 -0.2 Paddy Power: 125/1, 7pl, 1/5
Adrien Dumont de Chassart 0.29% 345 101 24
Alejandro Del Rey 1.14% 88 51 102
Alex Fitzpatrick 1.48% 68 51 74
Alexander Levy 0.11% 909 601 124
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.40% 250 401 0.20% 74 -0.2 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ali Mohamed Alkowari 0.00% 10000 5001 129
Andrea Pavan 0.50% 200 141 13
Andrew Wilson 0.65% 154 111 130
Andy Sullivan 1.62% 62 71 0.20% 38 -0.2 Paddy Power: 70/1, 7pl, 1/5
Angel Ayora 1.05% 95 31 114
Angel Hidalgo 0.41% 244 201 74
Benjamin Hebert 0.21% 476 451 114
Bernd Wiesberger 1.55% 65 101 0.60% 38 -0.6 Boyle Sports: 70/1, 10pl, 1/5
Bjorn Akesson 0.07% 1429 751
Brandon Robinson Thompson 0.59% 169 276 0.20% 8 -0.2 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Stone 0.83% 120 67 89
Brandon Wu 0.88% 114 91 55
Callum Shinkwin 0.60% 167 171 102
Callum Tarren 0.31% 323 226 8
Casey Jarvis 0.45% 222 126 21
Connor Syme 1.43% 70 111 0.50% 34 -0.5 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Conor Purcell 0.12% 833 501 60
Dale Whitnell 0.24% 417 501 34
Dan Bradbury 0.73% 137 131 32
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 0.84% 119 131 0.10% 2 1.2 Paddy Power: 125/1, 7pl, 1/5
Daniel Gavins 0.10% 1000 2501 0.10% 102 -0.1 Betfred: 2500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Hillier 1.06% 94 67 24
Darius Van Driel 0.94% 106 141 0.20% 121 -0.2 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Darren Fichardt 0.20% 500 751 0.10% 119 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Micheluzzi 1.27% 79 51 49
David Puig 3.56% 28 17 4
David Ravetto 0.73% 137 101 74
Deon Germishuys 0.29% 345 376 38
Dylan Frittelli 1.25% 80 91 0.20% 74 -0.2 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Elvis Smylie 0.32% 313 126
Ewen Ferguson 1.64% 61 51 102
Fabrizio Zanotti 0.57% 175 176 49
Francesco Laporta 0.79% 127 81 13
Gavin Green 0.50% 200 176 34
George Coetzee 0.06% 1667 751 49
Grant Forrest 0.47% 213 161 38
Guido Migliozzi 1.25% 80 46 69
Hamish Brown 0.54% 185 71 74
Haotong Li 0.85% 118 46 24
Ivan Cantero 0.73% 137 71 4
Jack Senior 0.47% 213 201 66
Jacob Skov Olesen 0.70% 143 151 74
Jacques Kruyswijk 0.38% 263 141 38
Jannik De Bruyn 0.28% 357 251 74
Jason Scrivener 1.11% 90 67 55
Jayden Schaper 0.40% 250 101 99
Jeff Winther 0.40% 250 176 119
Jens Dantorp 0.48% 208 326 0.20% 8 -0.2 Paddy Power: 300/1, 7pl, 1/5
Jeong Weon Ko 0.25% 400 401 49
Jimmy Walker 0.25% 400 451 74
Joakim Lagergren 0.14% 714 501 8
Joe Dean 1.28% 78 91 0.20% 13 -0.2 Paddy Power: 90/1, 7pl, 1/5
Joel Girrbach 0.46% 217 201 68
Joel Moscatel 0.18% 556 251 55
Johannes Veerman 2.22% 45 23 89
John Parry 0.80% 125 101 89
Joost Luiten 1.18% 85 76 18
Jordan Gumberg 0.20% 500 451 60
Jordan Smith 2.98% 34 36 0.20% 24 -0.2 Betfair: 35/1, 7pl, 1/5
Jorge Campillo 1.03% 97 71 13
Julien Guerrier 2.16% 46 41 21
Kazuma Kobori 0.18% 556 226 24
Keita Nakajima 1.45% 69 29 121
Khalifa Alkaabi 0.00% 10000 5001 127
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.58% 172 101 74
Kristoffer Reitan 0.31% 323 176 24
Laurie Canter 2.91% 34 21 1
Louis De Jager 0.33% 303 226 64
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.28% 357 301 69
Manuel Elvira 0.30% 333 251 66
Marcel Schneider 0.56% 179 151 8
Marcel Siem 0.40% 250 276 34
Marcus Armitage 1.07% 93 91 69
Marcus Kinhult 0.74% 135 126 89
Martin Couvra 0.17% 588 301 4
Martin Trainer 0.05% 2000 2001
Matthew Baldwin 0.29% 345 401 128
Matthew Jordan 1.71% 58 41 89
Matthew Southgate 0.74% 135 131 114
Matthias Schwab 0.33% 303 301 74
Maximilian Kieffer 0.83% 120 111 124
Mikael Lindberg 0.14% 714 401 64
Mike Lorenzo-Vera 0.31% 323 226 126
Minkyu Kim 0.15% 667 451 55
Nacho Elvira 0.67% 149 251 0.30% 110 -0.3 Skybet: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nathan Kimsey 0.77% 130 126
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.72% 139 161 0.10% 102 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 125/1, 10pl, 1/5
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 38 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Oliver Lindell 0.44% 227 71 102
Pablo Larrazabal 0.35% 286 201 2
Padraig Harrington 0.59% 169 161 38
Patrick Reed 4.13% 24 17 60
Pierre Pineau 0.09% 1111 751 69
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.30% 333 601 0.10% 24 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 1.85% 54 41 69
Ricardo Gouveia 0.43% 233 161 21
Richard Mansell 1.31% 76 71 99
Richard Sterne 0.51% 196 401 0.30% 114 -0.3 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richie Ramsay 0.85% 118 226 0.40% 4 6.5 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robert Karlsson 0.03% 3333 2501 74
Robin Williams 0.51% 196 151 121
Romain Langasque 1.49% 67 61 38
Ross Fisher 0.22% 455 451 18
Ryan Van Velzen 0.19% 526 501 99
Ryggs Johnston 0.21% 476 201 74
Sam Bairstow 1.43% 70 41 32
Scott Jamieson 1.71% 58 81 0.50% 18 -0.5 Paddy Power: 80/1, 7pl, 1/5
Sean Crocker 1.08% 93 101 0.10% 110 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 80/1, 10pl, 1/5
Sebastian Soderberg 1.91% 52 34 24
Simon Forsstrom 0.18% 556 751 89
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.22% 455 451 13
Thomas Aiken 0.79% 127 301 0.50% 110 -0.5 Spreadex: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Thorbjorn Olesen 4.42% 23 19 110
Todd Clements 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 74 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tom Sloman 0.02% 5000 751 102
Tom Vaillant 0.95% 105 76 114
Troy Merritt 0.47% 213 276 0.10% 89 -0.1 Paddy Power: 250/1, 7pl, 1/5
Ugo Coussaud 1.62% 62 51 89
Veer Ahlawat 0.16% 625 501 49
Wenyi Ding 0.73% 137 67 55
Yannik Paul 0.80% 125 181 0.20% 63 -0.2 Paddy Power: 175/1, 7pl, 1/5
Yaseen Le Falher 0.00% 10000 5001 130
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.48% 208 201 74
Zihao Jin 0.12% 833 251 38

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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