Simulation Results: BMW International Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	1.18%	85	46		50
Adri Arnaus	0.17%	588	476		104
Adrian Meronk	0.45%	222	151		57
Adrian Otaegui	0.38%	263	161		118
Albin Bergstrom	0.40%	250	351	0.10%	132	-0.1	Betfred: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alejandro Del Rey	0.44%	227	86		16
Alexander Levy	0.46%	217	201		50
Andres German Gallegos	0.02%	5000	5001		67
Andy Sullivan	0.91%	110	111		45
Angel Ayora	2.99%	33	21		118
Angel Hidalgo	0.35%	286	201		104
Anthony Quayle	0.16%	625	501		118
Antoine Rozner	1.41%	71	61
Ashun Wu	0.39%	256	276		7
Ben Schmidt	0.57%	175	176		61
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.06%	1667	2001		67
Bernd Wiesberger	1.21%	83	56		3
Brad Dalke	0.00%	10000	2501		30
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.83%	120	101		82
Brandon Stone	0.70%	143	111		82
Byeong Hun An	0.84%	119	56		118
Callum Tarren	0.12%	833	501		90
Calum Hill	1.68%	60	51		30
Cameron Adam	0.34%	294	401	0.10%	132	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlos Ortiz	0.56%	179	56		4
Casey Jarvis	0.92%	109	51		38
Clement Charmasson	0.10%	1000	1251		118
Connor Mckinney	0.01%	10000	5001		154
Connor Syme	0.22%	455	401		148
Dan Bradbury	0.97%	103	71		104
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	1.06%	94	81		67
Daniel Gavins	0.00%	10000	5001		104
Daniel Hillier	2.12%	47	26		90
Daniel Rodrigues	0.73%	137	161	0.10%	118	-0.1	Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Van Tonder	0.47%	213	151		38
Daniel Young	0.24%	417	501		57
Danny Willett	0.31%	323	301		155
Darius Van Driel	0.77%	130	111		65
David Law	0.41%	244	226		67
David Micheluzzi	0.23%	435	501		118
David Ravetto	0.63%	159	111		118
Davis Bryant	0.88%	114	101		50
Dominic Foos	0.13%	769	701		143
Dylan Naidoo	0.13%	769	1501	0.10%	59	-0.1	Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eddie Pepperell	0.98%	102	101		90
Euan Walker	0.26%	385	501	0.10%	104	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eugenio Chacarra	2.43%	41	21		67
Ewen Ferguson	1.76%	57	46		104
Fabrizio Zanotti	0.22%	455	401		90
Felix Mory	0.22%	455	601	0.10%	67	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Filippo Celli	0.38%	263	301		30
Finn Kolle	0.00%	10000	1501		30
Fred Biondi	0.09%	1111	1501		55
Freddy Schott	0.26%	385	101		16
Frederic Lacroix	1.11%	90	81		23
Gregorio De Leo	0.78%	128	111		61
Guido Migliozzi	0.69%	145	121		67
Hennie Du Plessis	1.07%	93	67		2
Hugo Townsend	0.18%	556	351		13
Hunter Logan	0.04%	2500	2001		148
Ivan Cantero	0.35%	286	301		82
J.C. Ritchie	1.11%	90	91		45
Jack Buchanan	0.11%	909	901		67
Jack Senior	0.13%	769	651		23
Jack Yule	0.01%	10000	3001		143
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.04%	96	67		67
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.48%	208	201		90
James Morrison	0.25%	400	601	0.10%	45	-0.1	Betfred: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jason Scrivener	0.46%	217	276	0.10%	67	-0.1	Betfred: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jayden Schaper	1.35%	74	41		59
Jeff Winther	0.62%	161	176	0.10%	16	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeong Weon Ko	0.11%	909	1001		30
Joakim Lagergren	0.79%	127	101		118
Joaquin Niemann	4.66%	21	9		7
Joe Dean	0.68%	147	176	0.10%	9	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joel Girrbach	0.36%	278	251		23
Johannes Veerman	0.27%	370	301		132
Jonathan Broomhead	0.09%	1111	1251		90
Joost Luiten	1.02%	98	111	0.10%	82	-0.1	Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jordan Gumberg	0.21%	476	351		118
Jorge Campillo	1.81%	55	56		67
Jose Luis Ballester	0.50%	200	67		67
Joshua Berry	0.02%	5000	5001		118
Julien Guerrier	1.47%	68	76	0.20%	118	-0.2	BetVictor: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Junghwan Lee	0.18%	556	451		90
Kazuma Kobori	1.28%	78	71		132
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.32%	313	151		9
Kota Kaneko	1.82%	55	67	0.30%	90	-0.3	Betfred: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucas Bjerregaard	0.20%	500	351		104
Manuel Elvira	0.64%	156	176	0.10%	16	-0.1	Betfred: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcel Schneider	0.57%	175	151		132
Marcel Siem	0.15%	667	401		67
Marco Penge	0.74%	135	36		9
Marcus Armitage	1.04%	96	81		50
Martin Couvra	0.66%	152	67		82
Martin Kaymer	0.52%	192	176		143
Matteo Manassero	0.63%	159	141		66
Matthew Baldwin	0.17%	588	551		90
Matthew Jordan	0.87%	115	76		38
Matthew Southgate	0.19%	526	351		118
Matti Schmid	1.46%	68	46		23
Maximilian Kieffer	0.12%	833	351		132
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.78%	128	126		30
Michael Hollick	0.24%	417	601	0.10%	1	37.5	Betfred: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mike Toorop	0.01%	10000	2501		143
Nacho Elvira	0.67%	149	101		16
Nathan Kimsey	1.02%	98	67		104
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.46%	217	161		23
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.75%	133	91		30
Ockie Strydom	0.05%	2000	2501		153
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.67%	149	151		4
Oliver Lindell	2.47%	40	36		13
Pablo Larrazabal	0.24%	417	301		132
Patrick Reed	3.76%	27	21		90
Paul Waring	0.60%	167	121		38
Quentin Debove	0.07%	1429	1251		16
Quim Vidal	0.07%	1429	1001		45
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.80%	125	131		104
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	2.31%	43	29		56
Renato Paratore	0.15%	667	451		13
Ricardo Gouveia	0.61%	164	111		67
Richie Ramsay	0.75%	133	201	0.30%	82	-0.3	Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rikuya Hoshino	0.56%	179	126		104
Robin Williams	0.11%	909	501		90
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.19%	526	351		118
Romain Langasque	1.08%	93	101	0.10%	16	-0.1	Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ross Fisher	0.39%	256	276		23
Ryan Palmer	0.01%	10000	5001		132
Ryan Peake	0.06%	1667	2001		150
Ryggs Johnston	0.18%	556	751		143
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.31%	323	276		82
Sam Bairstow	0.33%	303	201		45
Scott Jamieson	0.27%	370	451		38
Sean Crocker	0.57%	175	201	0.10%	67	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Garcia	0.24%	417	351		61
Sebastian Munoz	0.80%	125	56		61
Sergio Garcia	1.57%	64	56		150
Shaun Norris	0.65%	154	111		38
Shubhankar Sharma	0.13%	769	601		132
Simon Forsstrom	0.13%	769	551		154
Stefano Mazzoli	0.40%	250	351	0.10%	23	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Georg Schmidt	0.00%	10000	1001		90
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.46%	217	201		6
Thriston Lawrence	0.78%	128	91		104
Tobias Jonsson	0.18%	556	376		82
Todd Clements	0.70%	143	126		38
Tom Vaillant	0.91%	110	111		104
Ugo Coussaud	0.98%	102	101		30
Victor Perez	1.91%	52	41		9
Wenyi Ding	0.95%	105	91		90
Yanhan Zhou	0.59%	169	151		132
Yannik Paul	0.20%	500	451		104
Yurav Premlall	0.27%	370	351		104
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.45%	222	201		132
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.10%	1000	1501
Zander Lombard	0.21%	476	251		150

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Abraham Ancer	0.99%	101	71		67
Adri Arnaus	0.37%	270	176		141
Adrian Meronk	0.57%	175	141		12
Adrian Otaegui	0.54%	185	111		67
Albin Bergstrom	0.56%	179	161		67
Alejandro Del Rey	0.58%	172	91		22
Alexander Levy	0.60%	167	126		67
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	0.43%	233			22
Andres German Gallegos	0.13%	769	401		94
Andy Sullivan	0.85%	118	101		22
Angel Ayora	1.74%	57	36		141
Angel Hidalgo	0.57%	175	141		67
Anthony Quayle	0.33%	303	201		3
Antoine Rozner	1.10%	91	86
Ashun Wu	0.49%	204	151		67
Ben Schmidt	0.70%	143	126		22
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.24%	417	426		22
Bernd Wiesberger	1.05%	95	67		22
Brad Dalke	0.04%	2500	351		39
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.77%	130	111		39
Brandon Stone	0.83%	120	111		108
Byeong Hun An	0.82%	122	71		141
Callum Tarren	0.32%	313	176		67
Calum Hill	1.23%	81	67		67
Cameron Adam	0.47%	213	176		67
Carlos Ortiz	0.67%	149	81		12
Casey Jarvis	0.88%	114	67		94
Clement Charmasson	0.28%	357	351		132
Connor Mckinney	0.09%	1111	426		141
Connor Syme	0.35%	286	201		94
Dan Bradbury	0.91%	110	91		5
Daniel Brown (Oct1994)	0.95%	105	91		39
Daniel Gavins	0.04%	2500	501		39
Daniel Hillier	1.43%	70	41		39
Daniel Rodrigues	0.78%	128	91		67
Daniel Van Tonder	0.66%	152	126		67
Daniel Young	0.42%	238	201		5
Danny Willett	0.48%	208	151		155
Darius Van Driel	0.84%	119	101		108
David Law	0.56%	179	141		22
David Micheluzzi	0.45%	222	201		108
David Ravetto	0.72%	139	101		108
Davis Bryant	0.89%	112	91		5
Dominic Foos	0.32%	313	251		132
Dylan Naidoo	0.29%	345	301		132
Eddie Pepperell	0.94%	106	91		108
Euan Walker	0.45%	222	176		108
Eugenio Chacarra	1.56%	64	41		108
Ewen Ferguson	1.25%	80	61		12
Fabrizio Zanotti	0.36%	278	201		94
Felix Mory	0.43%	233	201		39
Filippo Celli	0.56%	179	151		39
Finn Kolle	0.05%	2000	351		67
Fred Biondi	0.24%	417	301		94
Freddy Schott	0.46%	217	101		67
Frederic Lacroix	0.95%	105	81		39
Gregorio De Leo	0.77%	130	101		39
Guido Migliozzi	0.71%	141	101		67
Hennie Du Plessis	0.97%	103	81		1
Hugo Townsend	0.40%	250	176		67
Hunter Logan	0.15%	667	351		108
Ivan Cantero	0.53%	189	151		67
J.C. Ritchie	0.94%	106	91		3
Jack Buchanan	0.29%	345	251		67
Jack Senior	0.27%	370	226		39
Jack Yule	0.10%	1000	401		141
Jacob Skov Olesen	0.91%	110	81		67
Jacques Kruyswijk	0.61%	164	151		94
James Morrison	0.43%	233	226		39
Jason Scrivener	0.64%	156	176	0.10%	67	-0.1	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jayden Schaper	1.15%	87	51		1
Jeff Winther	0.74%	135	111		22
Jeong Weon Ko	0.26%	385	276		12
Joakim Lagergren	0.82%	122	101		94
Joaquin Niemann	2.32%	43	21		22
Joe Dean	0.75%	133	126		5
Joel Girrbach	0.51%	196	151		94
Johannes Veerman	0.41%	244	151		108
Jonathan Broomhead	0.27%	370	301		39
Joost Luiten	0.89%	112	91		67
Jordan Gumberg	0.40%	250	151		94
Jorge Campillo	1.29%	78	71		94
Jose Luis Ballester	0.68%	147	71		39
Joshua Berry	0.12%	833	426		108
Julien Guerrier	1.16%	86	81		108
Junghwan Lee	0.38%	263	176		108
Kazuma Kobori	1.07%	93	81		108
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.50%	200	126		67
Kota Kaneko	1.30%	77	71		12
Lucas Bjerregaard	0.37%	270			141
Manuel Elvira	0.68%	147	141		12
Marcel Schneider	0.68%	147	141		108
Marcel Siem	0.36%	278	176		108
Marco Penge	0.81%	123	56		22
Marcus Armitage	0.93%	108	81		67
Martin Couvra	0.73%	137	86		39
Martin Kaymer	0.64%	156	126		108
Matteo Manassero	0.74%	135	111		67
Matthew Baldwin	0.34%	294	226		132
Matthew Jordan	0.79%	127	91		22
Matthew Southgate	0.37%	270	201		141
Matti Schmid	1.10%	91	61		39
Maximilian Kieffer	0.29%	345	151		108
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.73%	137	101		39
Michael Hollick	0.41%	244	226		5
Mike Toorop	0.10%	1000	401		132
Nacho Elvira	0.72%	139	101		12
Nathan Kimsey	0.93%	108	81		94
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.59%	169	126		141
Niklas Norgaard Moller	0.82%	122	101		22
Ockie Strydom	0.19%	526	426		152
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.73%	137	126		39
Oliver Lindell	1.60%	63	46		39
Pablo Larrazabal	0.39%	256	151		67
Patrick Reed	1.94%	52	34		108
Paul Waring	0.72%	139			5
Quentin Debove	0.20%	500	301		12
Quim Vidal	0.22%	455	251		39
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.83%	120	111		152
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen	1.46%	68	46		39
Renato Paratore	0.36%	278	176		67
Ricardo Gouveia	0.71%	141	91		39
Richie Ramsay	0.81%	123	111		39
Rikuya Hoshino	0.70%	143	101		12
Robin Williams	0.28%	357	176		108
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.31%	323	151		132
Romain Langasque	0.95%	105	91		12
Ross Fisher	0.50%	200	151		5
Ryan Palmer	0.11%	909	426		108
Ryan Peake	0.21%	476	351		155
Ryggs Johnston	0.37%	270	226		141
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.44%	227	151		108
Sam Bairstow	0.43%	233	126		39
Scott Jamieson	0.47%	213	201		39
Sean Crocker	0.67%	149	141		67
Sebastian Garcia	0.40%	250	151		22
Sebastian Munoz	0.82%	122	71		22
Sergio Garcia	1.18%	85	56		94
Shaun Norris	0.72%	139	101		39
Shubhankar Sharma	0.31%	323	251		132
Simon Forsstrom	0.34%	294	251		154
Stefano Mazzoli	0.58%	172	151		22
Thomas Georg Schmidt	0.04%	2500	351		132
Thomas Rosenmueller	0.58%	172	151		39
Thriston Lawrence	0.80%	125	101		108
Tobias Jonsson	0.35%	286	151		39
Todd Clements	0.72%	139	91		22
Tom Vaillant	0.81%	123	91		132
Ugo Coussaud	0.86%	116	101		39
Victor Perez	1.39%	72	61		108
Wenyi Ding	0.86%	116	101		22
Yanhan Zhou	0.64%	156	111		67
Yannik Paul	0.38%	263	201		141
Yurav Premlall	0.41%	244	151		94
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.56%	179	151		94
Zander Lombard	0.38%	263	151		141

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Kota Kaneko	1.82%	55	67	0.30%	90	-2	Betfred: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Richie Ramsay	0.75%	133	201	0.30%	82	-2	Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Julien Guerrier	1.47%	68	76	0.20%	118	-2	BetVictor: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jason Scrivener	0.64%	156	176	0.10%	67	-3	Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.