Simulation Results: BMW International Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.65% 154 161 38
Adrian Otaegui 0.39% 256 276 69
Adrien Saddier 1.92% 52 56 0.10% 46 -0.1 Spreadex: 55/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alejandro Del Rey 0.43% 233 176 69
Alex Fitzpatrick 1.31% 76 76 145
Alexander George Frances 0.05% 2000 1001 135
Alexander Levy 0.13% 769 601 38
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.13% 769 601 87
Andrea Pavan 0.51% 196 126 38
Andreas Halvorsen 0.34% 294 201 46
Andrew Wilson 0.44% 227 251 145
Andy Sullivan 1.32% 76 81 0.10% 69 -0.1 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Angel Ayora 0.96% 104 67 49
Angel Hidalgo 0.37% 270 226 127
Ashun Wu 0.19% 526 326 14
Ben Schmidt 0.20% 500 351 69
Benjamin Hebert 0.24% 417 351 69
Bernd Wiesberger 0.83% 120 151 0.20% 127 -0.2 Priced Up: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bjorn Akesson 0.03% 3333 2001 127
Brandon Robinson Thompson 1.20% 83 101 0.20% 46 -0.2 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Stone 0.80% 125 101 14
Brandon Wu 0.38% 263 401 0.10% 69 -0.1 Betfred: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Calum Hill 1.21% 83 61 103
Casey Jarvis 0.18% 556 351 87
Clement Sordet 0.27% 370 201 38
Connor Syme 1.37% 73 91 0.30% 103 -0.3 Priced Up: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Conor Purcell 0.16% 625 401 61
Corey Shaun 0.07% 1429 1001 103
Dale Whitnell 0.11% 909 601 64
Dan Bradbury 0.93% 108 81 87
Dan Erickson 0.09% 1111 751 19
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 0.60% 167 151 1
Daniel Gale 0.09% 1111 751 69
Daniel Hillier 1.00% 100 56 69
Darius Van Driel 0.64% 156 176 0.10% 69 -0.1 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Darren Fichardt 0.24% 417 376 87
David Horsey 0.16% 625 401 54
David Micheluzzi 0.48% 208 181 103
David Puig 3.41% 29 19 11
David Ravetto 0.35% 286 181 19
Davis Bryant 0.46% 217 251 0.10% 4 2.0166666666667 Betfred: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Deon Germishuys 0.11% 909 1001 87
Dylan Naidoo 0.09% 1111 601 26
Edoardo Molinari 0.92% 109 111 103
Elvis Smylie 0.14% 714 276 38
Erik Barnes 0.00% 10000 5001 145
Eugenio Chacarra 1.71% 58 34 154
Ewen Ferguson 1.83% 55 41 87
Fabrizio Zanotti 0.93% 108 101 127
Francesco Laporta 2.01% 50 51 0.10% 7 -0.1 Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Freddy Schott 0.24% 417 201 87
Frederic Lacroix 0.97% 103 81 7
Gavin Green 0.89% 112 101 68
George Bryan 0.01% 10000 4001 127
Grant Forrest 0.42% 238 176 54
Gregorio De Leo 0.16% 625 401 145
Guido Migliozzi 0.61% 164 176 127
Hamish Brown 0.20% 500 351 103
Haotong Li 1.49% 67 34 38
Hurly Long 0.11% 909 451 66
Ivan Cantero 0.33% 303 161 17
Jack Senior 0.32% 313 301 87
Jacob Skov Olesen 1.00% 100 101 118
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa 0.11% 909 501 118
Jacques Kruyswijk 0.58% 172 96 19
Jannik De Bruyn 0.15% 667 351 87
Jason Scrivener 0.39% 256 201 135
Jayden Schaper 2.05% 49 51 0.10% 103 -0.1 Priced Up: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeff Winther 0.72% 139 151 0.10% 26 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jens Dantorp 0.62% 161 151 26
Jeong Weon Ko 0.09% 1111 751 49
Joakim Lagergren 0.30% 333 201 49
Joe Dean 0.50% 200 176 69
Joel Girrbach 0.14% 714 501 54
Joel Moscatel 0.03% 3333 1001 103
Johannes Veerman 0.84% 119 91 118
John Parry 0.86% 116 91 26
Joost Luiten 1.56% 64 51 4
Jordan Gumberg 0.11% 909 601 87
Jordan Smith 3.40% 29 29 2
Jorge Campillo 2.09% 48 67 0.60% 26 -0.6 Betfred: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jose Luis Ballester 0.07% 1429 351 87
Julien Guerrier 1.13% 88 81 87
Kazuma Kobori 0.76% 132 131 3
Keita Nakajima 1.42% 70 46 58
Kevin Chappell 0.16% 625 376 87
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.45% 222 111 118
Kristoffer Reitan 1.13% 88 46 4
Laurie Canter 1.21% 83 41 7
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.24% 417 351 145
Luke Donald 0.11% 909 751 118
Manuel Elvira 0.51% 196 161 145
Marcel Schneider 1.60% 63 51 26
Marcel Siem 0.51% 196 151 58
Marco Penge 1.05% 95 34 11
Marcus Armitage 0.80% 125 151 0.10% 26 -0.1 Priced Up: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Martin Couvra 2.04% 49 36 135
Martin Kaymer 0.86% 116 101 19
Martin Trainer 0.00% 10000 5001 155
Matthew Baldwin 0.09% 1111 551 153
Matthew Jordan 1.26% 79 71 38
Matthew Southgate 0.35% 286 226 135
Matthias Schwab 0.12% 833 1501 0.10% 61 -0.1 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matti Schmid 2.25% 44 34 7
Maximilian Kieffer 0.71% 141 101 87
Michael Hirmer 0.01% 10000 2501 69
Mikael Lindberg 0.14% 714 501 49
Minkyu Kim 0.35% 286 401 0.10% 87 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nacho Elvira 0.44% 227 226 38
Nathan Kimsey 0.58% 172 126 53
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 1.16% 86 56 127
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.23% 435 376 135
Nicolas Horder 0.00% 10000 4001 145
Niklas Lemke 0.28% 357 181 69
Ockie Strydom 0.01% 10000 2001 118
Oliver Lindell 1.24% 81 61 118
Pablo Larrazabal 0.34% 294 201 54
Patrick Reed 5.15% 19 15 69
Pierre Pineau 0.06% 1667 1001 156
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.40% 250 226 26
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 3.35% 30 21 14
Ricardo Gouveia 0.38% 263 181 61
Richard Mansell 0.87% 115 101 26
Richard Sterne 0.16% 625 501 103
Richie Ramsay 0.61% 164 201 0.10% 19 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robin Williams 0.34% 294 301 127
Romain Langasque 1.42% 70 101 0.40% 69 -0.4 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ross Fisher 0.15% 667 601 69
Ryan Van Velzen 0.07% 1429 751 103
Ryggs Johnston 0.07% 1429 501 26
Sam Bairstow 0.67% 149 81 103
Scott Jamieson 0.32% 313 226 19
Sean Crocker 1.07% 93 91 103
Sergio Garcia 1.32% 76 31 135
Shaun Norris 0.91% 110 111 26
Shubhankar Sharma 0.14% 714 401 69
Simon Forsstrom 0.20% 500 401 135
Tadeas Tetak 0.06% 1667 751 87
Taiga Semikawa 0.32% 313 226 135
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.24% 417 401 135
Thomas Aiken 0.25% 400 601 0.10% 118 -0.1 Betfred: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tiger Christensen 0.07% 1429 501 103
Tim Wiedemeyer 0.00% 10000 1001 17
Todd Clements 0.58% 172 131 103
Tom Vaillant 0.52% 192 226 0.10% 69 -0.1 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Troy Merritt 0.27% 370 326 135
Ugo Coussaud 0.39% 256 176 19
Veer Ahlawat 0.08% 1250 751 69
Wenyi Ding 0.56% 179 101 26
Wesley Bryan 0.34% 294 151 64
Wilco Nienaber 0.24% 417 126 118
Wolfgang Glawe 0.00% 10000 501 103
Yannik Paul 0.65% 154 131 66
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.44% 227 181 11
Zander Lombard 0.12% 833 351 58
Zihao Jin 0.00% 10000 1501 145

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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