Simulation Results: BMW PGA Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.07% 1429 1251 99
Aaron Rai 1.88% 53 31 3
Adam Scott 1.03% 97 96 38
Adrian Meronk 0.39% 256 301 0.10% 114 -0.1 Betfred: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrian Otaegui 0.21% 476 651 0.10% 13 -0.1 Unibet: 650/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrien Saddier 0.61% 164 161 2
Alejandro Del Rey 0.15% 667 601 108
Alex Fitzpatrick 0.18% 556 601 74
Alex Noren 2.73% 37 46 0.60% 1 11.88 Ladbrokes: 33/1, 10pl, 1/5
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.03% 3333 1251 99
Andrea Pavan 0.07% 1429 901 85
Andy Sullivan 0.66% 152 161 137
Angel Ayora 0.82% 122 101 54
Angel Hidalgo 0.14% 714 451 46
Antoine Rozner 0.55% 182 251 0.20% 31 -0.2 Betfred: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Schmidt 0.13% 769 651 87
Bernd Wiesberger 0.12% 833 601 123
Billy Horschel 1.43% 70 76 0.10% 87 -0.1 Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Robinson Thompson 0.22% 455 601 0.10% 38 -0.1 Betfred: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Stone 0.19% 526 501 38
Brooks Koepka 0.15% 667 136 87
Callum Shinkwin 0.05% 2000 1001 108
Calum Hill 0.10% 1000 751 87
Casey Jarvis 0.12% 833 751 38
Connor Syme 0.12% 833 651 31
Corey Conners 2.79% 36 41 0.40% 87 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 30/1, 10pl, 1/5
Dale Whitnell 0.01% 10000 4001 80
Dan Bradbury 0.23% 435 451 31
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 0.52% 192 126 108
Daniel Hillier 0.33% 303 326 54
Danny Willett 0.23% 435 401 66
Darius Van Driel 0.08% 1250 1251 24
Darren Fichardt 0.04% 2500 2501 5
David Micheluzzi 0.04% 2500 751 87
David Ravetto 0.10% 1000 651 61
Dean Burmester 0.45% 222 151 87
Dylan Frittelli 0.05% 2000 2001 123
Dylan Naidoo 0.01% 10000 2501 38
Elvis Smylie 0.17% 588 451 31
Erik Van Rooyen 0.33% 303 226 24
Eugenio Chacarra 0.24% 417 301 38
Ewen Ferguson 0.22% 455 351 5
Fabrizio Zanotti 0.11% 909 1001 66
Francesco Laporta 0.34% 294 251 24
Francesco Molinari 0.15% 667 451 123
Frederic Lacroix 0.12% 833 501 74
Gavin Green 0.07% 1429 1501 134
Grant Forrest 0.24% 417 301 130
Guido Migliozzi 0.13% 769 751 24
Haotong Li 0.57% 175 126 70
Harry Hall 1.90% 53 51 13
Hideki Matsuyama 1.22% 82 61 13
Ivan Cantero 0.06% 1667 1251 134
Jacques Kruyswijk 0.13% 769 501 70
Jason Scrivener 0.26% 385 651 0.10% 123 -0.1 Unibet: 650/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jayden Schaper 0.23% 435 351 74
Jeff Winther 0.31% 323 501 0.10% 66 -0.1 Unibet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeong Weon Ko 0.02% 5000 3001 73
Jhonattan Vegas 0.50% 200 226 0.10% 87 -0.1 Priced Up: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joakim Lagergren 0.24% 417 251 54
Joaquin Niemann 1.85% 54 26 20
Joe Dean 0.10% 1000 751 86
Johannes Veerman 0.27% 370 401 31
John Parry 0.71% 141 161 0.10% 99 -0.1 Unibet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jon Rahm 7.00% 14 10 13
Joost Luiten 0.69% 145 201 0.20% 63 -0.2 AKBets: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jordan Gumberg 0.03% 3333 2001 130
Jordan Smith 1.36% 74 91 0.30% 24 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 66/1, 10pl, 1/5
Jorge Campillo 0.28% 357 401 70
Julien Guerrier 0.30% 333 326 99
Justin Rose 1.59% 63 46 61
Kazuma Kobori 0.28% 357 451 0.10% 46 -0.1 Unibet: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keita Nakajima 0.90% 111 181 0.30% 134 -0.3 Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.18% 556 351 63
Kristoffer Reitan 0.53% 189 151 24
Laurie Canter 0.47% 213 151 46
Ludvig Aberg 2.31% 43 19 20
Luke Donald 0.02% 5000 1501 87
Manuel Elvira 0.12% 833 651 108
Marcel Schneider 0.27% 370 451 99
Marcel Siem 0.22% 455 451 138
Marco Penge 0.85% 118 51 13
Marcus Armitage 0.28% 357 326 114
Marcus Kinhult 0.08% 1250 901 130
Martin Couvra 0.15% 667 601 13
Matt Fitzpatrick 4.51% 22 23 0.20% 5 0.26 Ladbrokes: 18/1, 10pl, 1/5
Matt Wallace 1.32% 76 71 46
Matteo Manassero 0.52% 192 151 87
Matthew Baldwin 0.04% 2500 1251 80
Matthew Jordan 0.25% 400 401 99
Matthieu Pavon 0.22% 455 301 114
Matti Schmid 0.61% 164 201 0.10% 99 -0.1 Priced Up: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Maximilian Kieffer 0.09% 1111 1251 87
Michael Kim 0.59% 169 141 99
Min Woo Lee 0.47% 213 141 11
Nacho Elvira 0.06% 1667 1501 74
Nicolai Hojgaard 0.99% 101 76 130
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.13% 769 501 99
Niklas Norgaard Moller 0.50% 200 226 0.10% 74 -0.1 Priced Up: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Oliver Lindell 0.87% 115 126 0.10% 13 -0.1 Betfred: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pablo Larrazabal 0.07% 1429 1501 31
Padraig Harrington 0.05% 2000 1501 114
Patrick Reed 1.89% 53 56 0.10% 3 0.3 Ladbrokes: 35/1, 10pl, 1/5
Patrick Rodgers 0.33% 303 226 114
Paul O'Hara 0.01% 10000 4001 108
Rasmus Hojgaard 2.09% 48 46 128
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 1.45% 69 67 20
Ricardo Gouveia 0.05% 2000 2001 54
Richard Mansell 0.18% 556 276 87
Richie Ramsay 0.15% 667 501 38
Robert Macintyre 2.45% 41 31 74
Romain Langasque 0.44% 227 351 0.20% 123 -0.2 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rory Mcilroy 8.30% 12 8 20
Ryan Fox 0.59% 169 111 46
Ryan Gerard 0.24% 417 141 38
Ryggs Johnston 0.02% 5000 2501 83
Sam Bairstow 0.17% 588 501 63
Scott Jamieson 0.06% 1667 1251 114
Sean Crocker 0.13% 769 651 24
Shane Lowry 4.18% 24 26 0.30% 46 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 20/1, 10pl, 1/5
Shaun Norris 0.34% 294 401 0.10% 54 -0.1 Betfred: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shubhankar Sharma 0.02% 5000 2001 108
Si Woo Kim 1.04% 96 61 5
Simon Forsstrom 0.06% 1667 2501 114
Thomas Aiken 0.07% 1429 1001 128
Thomas Detry 0.91% 110 101 46
Thomas Pieters 0.81% 123 151 0.10% 66 -0.1 Priced Up: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Thriston Lawrence 0.51% 196 131 114
Todd Clements 0.27% 370 351 84
Tom Mckibbin 1.02% 98 86 11
Tom Vaillant 0.28% 357 651 0.10% 31 -0.1 Unibet: 650/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tommy Fleetwood 9.30% 11 11 0.20% 46 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 8.5/1, 10pl, 1/5
Tyrrell Hatton 2.68% 37 26 5
Ugo Coussaud 0.32% 313 351 80
Viktor Hovland 2.89% 35 23 5
Yannik Paul 0.06% 1667 2001 54
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.06% 1667 1251 54
Zander Lombard 0.04% 2500 1501 114

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


© Copyright 1999-2025 Tour-Tips.com.
All rights reserved.

This Week's Updates