Simulation Results: Austrian Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Blomme	0.27%	370	501	0.10%	83	-0.1	Spreadex: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adri Arnaus	0.24%	417	451		93
Adrian Otaegui	0.67%	149	86		67
Albin Bergstrom	0.42%	238	301	0.10%	56	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alejandro Del Rey	1.39%	72	46		115
Alexander Kopp	0.00%	10000	3001		104
Alexander Levy	0.76%	132	151	0.10%	17	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	0.22%	455	501		26
Andreas Halvorsen	0.82%	122	101		59
Andres Gallegos	0.05%	2000	1001		128
Andrew Johnston	0.96%	104	76		17
Angel Hidalgo	0.38%	263	301		123
Anthony Quayle	0.33%	303	251		59
Antoine Rozner	2.14%	47	41		26
Ashun Wu	0.50%	200	226	0.10%	83	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Austin Bautista	0.27%	370	201		93
Ben Schmidt	1.10%	91	71		93
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.18%	556	401		115
Bernd Wiesberger	1.32%	76	41		4
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.81%	123	126		40
Brandon Stone	0.78%	128	111		47
Callum Tarren	0.29%	345	401		134
Calum Hill	1.04%	96	67		17
Cameron Adam	0.42%	238	401	0.20%	47	-0.2	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Casey Jarvis	1.80%	56	19		67
Christoph Bleier	0.03%	3333	1251		148
Clement Charmasson	0.17%	588	501		134
Connor Mckinney	0.05%	2000	1001		148
Connor Syme	0.23%	435	301		115
Daniel Gavins	0.00%	10000	5001		123
Daniel Hillier	2.04%	49	29		7
Daniel Rodrigues	1.07%	93	126	0.30%	115	-0.3	Betfred: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Young	0.34%	294	301		83
Darius Van Driel	1.35%	74	56		40
David Ennsmann	0.00%	10000	5001		155
David Law	0.56%	179	141		142
David Micheluzzi	0.27%	370	501	0.10%	115	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Ravetto	0.62%	161	101		35
Davis Bryant	0.91%	110	101		2
Dylan Frittelli	0.28%	357	161		83
Dylan Naidoo	0.12%	833	751		128
Eddie Pepperell	1.19%	84	61		67
Edoardo Molinari	0.17%	588	601		63
Euan Walker	0.34%	294	201		83
Eugenio Chacarra	2.26%	44	29		12
Ewen Ferguson	1.63%	61	41		17
Fabrizio Zanotti	0.64%	156	226	0.20%	115	-0.2	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Felix Mory	0.14%	714	501		26
Filippo Celli	0.29%	345	351		17
Florian Schweighofer	0.00%	10000	3001		151
Francesco Laporta	1.59%	63	51		40
Fred Biondi	0.32%	313	451	0.10%	83	-0.1	Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Freddy Schott	0.69%	145	81		123
Gavin Green	0.09%	1111	1001		142
Grant Forrest	0.90%	111	91		12
Gregorio De Leo	1.07%	93	71		4
Guido Migliozzi	0.79%	127	71		128
Hennie Du Plessis	1.67%	60	34		40
Hugo Townsend	0.39%	256	176		47
Hunter Logan	0.03%	3333	2501		128
Ivan Cantero	0.39%	256	351	0.10%	26	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
J.C. Ritchie	1.45%	69	71		17
Jack Buchanan	0.19%	526			134
Jack Senior	0.34%	294	401	0.10%	148	-0.1	Spreadex: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Yule	0.03%	3333	2501		134
Jacob Skov Olesen	2.16%	46	29		26
Jakob Lotschak	0.02%	5000	2501		134
James Morrison	0.18%	556	751		35
Jason Scrivener	0.84%	119	126		67
Jeff Winther	1.04%	96	91		156
Jens Dantorp	0.61%	164	226	0.20%	134	-0.2	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeong Weon Ko	0.09%	1111	1501		104
Joakim Lagergren	0.88%	114	101		93
Joe Dean	0.69%	145	151		12
Joel Girrbach	0.44%	227	251		11
Johannes Veerman	0.35%	286	201		104
John Catlin	0.49%	204	126		128
Jonathan Broomhead	0.38%	263	351	0.10%	115	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joost Luiten	0.84%	119	81		7
Jordan Gumberg	0.21%	476	251		104
Joshua Berry	0.06%	1667	1001		67
Julien Guerrier	1.50%	67	56		67
Junghwan Lee	0.45%	222	251	0.10%	104	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Kazuma Kobori	1.24%	81	71		93
Kevin Na	0.21%	476	401		40
Kipp Popert	0.00%	10000	5001		128
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.63%	159	141		93
Kota Kaneko	1.94%	52	51		1
Lucas Bjerregaard	0.49%	204	176		59
Lukas Boandl	0.00%	10000	2001		83
Lukas Nemecz	0.18%	556	226		93
M.J. Daffue	0.85%	118	71		35
Manuel Elvira	0.69%	145	101		7
Marc Warren	0.29%	345	401		54
Marcel Schneider	1.10%	91	86		17
Marcel Siem	0.50%	200	226	0.10%	154	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marcus Armitage	1.74%	57	46		26
Marcus Helligkilde	0.11%	909	401		67
Marcus Kinhult	0.87%	115	91		83
Martin Couvra	1.59%	63	36		35
Matteo Manassero	1.08%	93	91		67
Matthew Baldwin	0.44%	227	276	0.10%	123	-0.1	Betfred: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Jordan	0.91%	110	67		40
Matthias Schwab	0.04%	2500	751		67
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.39%	256	151		7
Michael Hollick	0.28%	357	401		67
Mikael Lindberg	2.36%	42	29		83
Mike Toorop	0.03%	3333	1001		142
Nacho Elvira	0.65%	154	91		93
Nathan Kimsey	1.77%	56	31		17
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.41%	244	151		104
Niklas Lemke	0.34%	294	351	0.10%	104	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Niklas Regner	0.03%	3333	2001		142
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.81%	123	126		35
Oliver Lindell	2.41%	41	26		47
Pablo Larrazabal	0.18%	556	501		67
Per Langfors	0.16%	625	501		151
Quentin Debove	0.13%	769	751		93
Quim Vidal	0.22%	455	401		115
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.96%	104	111	0.10%	4	0.85	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Renato Paratore	0.29%	345	251		47
Ricardo Gouveia	0.88%	114	101		2
Richard Sarkozi	0.00%	10000	2501		142
Richard Sterne	0.87%	115	91		47
Richie Ramsay	0.87%	115	251	0.50%	67	-0.5	Betway: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rikuya Hoshino	0.58%	172	176		26
Robin Williams	0.19%	526	501		67
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.38%	263	201		104
Romain Langasque	0.81%	123	81		54
Ross Fisher	0.25%	400	401		57
Ryan Peake	0.06%	1667	1001		67
Ryggs Johnston	0.06%	1667	1001		59
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.42%	238	176		104
Sam Bairstow	0.67%	149	111		123
Scott Jamieson	0.35%	286	351	0.10%	134	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sean Crocker	0.60%	167	126		63
Sebastian Garcia	0.26%	385	351		66
Sebastian Soderberg	0.70%	143	176	0.10%	104	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sepp Straka	2.83%	35	10		12
Simon Forsstrom	0.18%	556	501		63
Stefano Mazzoli	0.38%	263	401	0.10%	67	-0.1	Spreadex: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thriston Lawrence	1.16%	86	51		67
Tim Hofmann	0.00%	10000	2001		142
Timon Baltl	0.00%	10000	3001		151
Tobias Jonsson	0.54%	185	226	0.10%	47	-0.1	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Todd Clements	0.74%	135	101		93
Tom De Herrypon	0.00%	10000	2001		104
Tom Vaillant	1.32%	76	56		26
Ugo Coussaud	1.32%	76	51		17
Wenyi Ding	1.66%	60	41		57
Yanhan Zhou	0.37%	270	161		12
Yannik Paul	0.22%	455	451		83
Yurav Premlall	0.60%	167	111		40
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.49%	204	151		26
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.32%	313	601	0.20%	141	-0.2	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Zander Lombard	0.68%	147	81		93

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Blomme	0.46%	217	181		114
Adri Arnaus	0.37%	270	151		101
Adrian Otaegui	0.77%	130	91		101
Albin Bergstrom	0.50%	200	151		57
Alejandro Del Rey	1.23%	81	71		142
Alexander Kopp	0.00%	10000	401		57
Alexander Levy	0.69%	145	101		9
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	0.39%	256	201		37
Andreas Halvorsen	0.72%	139	101		9
Andres Gallegos	0.19%	526	276		132
Andrew Johnston	0.99%	101	81		25
Angel Hidalgo	0.60%	167	126		114
Anthony Quayle	0.56%	179	126		83
Antoine Rozner	1.54%	65	67		57
Ashun Wu	0.72%	139	126		83
Austin Bautista	0.45%	222	131		57
Ben Schmidt	1.00%	100	81		57
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.37%	270	151		132
Bernd Wiesberger	1.17%	85	67		17
Brandon Robinson Thompson	0.70%	143	91		3
Brandon Stone	0.70%	143	91		57
Callum Tarren	0.52%	192	161		83
Calum Hill	0.87%	115	81		9
Cameron Adam	0.64%	156	151		57
Casey Jarvis	1.22%	82	36		83
Christoph Bleier	0.15%	667	351		132
Clement Charmasson	0.36%	278	201		57
Connor Mckinney	0.19%	526	276		148
Connor Syme	0.47%	213	151		114
Daniel Gavins	0.02%	5000	501		148
Daniel Hillier	1.56%	64	51		57
Daniel Rodrigues	1.03%	97	91		132
Daniel Young	0.43%	233	151		37
Darius Van Driel	1.00%	100	71		37
David Ennsmann	0.01%	10000	501		142
David Law	0.59%	169	126		114
David Micheluzzi	0.38%	263	176		83
David Ravetto	0.65%	154	91		57
Davis Bryant	0.80%	125	91		3
Dylan Frittelli	0.52%	192	126		83
Dylan Naidoo	0.31%	323	251		57
Eddie Pepperell	1.06%	94	71		101
Edoardo Molinari	0.37%	270	251		37
Euan Walker	0.56%	179	126		57
Eugenio Chacarra	1.64%	61	51		25
Ewen Ferguson	1.13%	88	61		25
Fabrizio Zanotti	0.60%	167	126		83
Felix Mory	0.30%	333	151		25
Filippo Celli	0.46%	217	151		25
Florian Schweighofer	0.02%	5000	401		132
Francesco Laporta	1.30%	77	71		25
Fred Biondi	0.56%	179	176		9
Freddy Schott	0.78%	128	151	0.10%	132	-0.1	William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gavin Green	0.23%	435	276		132
Grant Forrest	0.95%	105	81		57
Gregorio De Leo	0.85%	118	81		37
Guido Migliozzi	0.85%	118	81		114
Hennie Du Plessis	1.36%	74	56		57
Hugo Townsend	0.48%	208	126		83
Hunter Logan	0.12%	833	401		101
Ivan Cantero	0.62%	161	151		37
J.C. Ritchie	1.29%	78	76		37
Jack Buchanan	0.33%	303			142
Jack Senior	0.57%	175	151		114
Jack Yule	0.11%	909	401		101
Jacob Skov Olesen	1.31%	76	51		57
Jakob Lotschak	0.10%	1000	401		114
James Morrison	0.29%	345	251		17
Jason Scrivener	0.79%	127	91		17
Jeff Winther	0.84%	119	81		132
Jens Dantorp	0.80%	125	126		83
Jeong Weon Ko	0.28%	357	351		57
Joakim Lagergren	0.91%	110	91		57
Joe Dean	0.81%	123	101		57
Joel Girrbach	0.68%	147	151		83
Johannes Veerman	0.43%	233	126		17
John Catlin	0.52%	192	91		101
Jonathan Broomhead	0.59%	169	151		57
Joost Luiten	0.71%	141	81		57
Jordan Gumberg	0.42%	238	151		101
Joshua Berry	0.23%	435	276		37
Julien Guerrier	1.23%	81	71		25
Junghwan Lee	0.61%	164	151		101
Kazuma Kobori	1.09%	92	81		57
Kevin Na	0.44%	227	151		25
Kipp Popert	0.02%	5000	601		148
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	0.78%	128	111		37
Kota Kaneko	1.25%	80	61		9
Lucas Bjerregaard	0.55%	182	111		3
Lukas Boandl	0.06%	1667	401		148
Lukas Nemecz	0.39%	256	131		114
M.J. Daffue	0.72%	139	81		25
Manuel Elvira	0.71%	141	91		37
Marc Warren	0.50%	200	176		114
Marcel Schneider	0.84%	119	81		3
Marcel Siem	0.58%	172	126		148
Marcus Armitage	1.40%	71	71		83
Marcus Helligkilde	0.27%	370	151		83
Marcus Kinhult	0.85%	118	91		114
Martin Couvra	1.13%	88	51		37
Matteo Manassero	1.10%	91	81		114
Matthew Baldwin	0.57%	175	151		148
Matthew Jordan	0.96%	104	81		17
Matthias Schwab	0.18%	556	251		37
Maximilian Steinlechner	0.46%	217	101		9
Michael Hollick	0.54%	185	151		132
Mikael Lindberg	1.69%	59	56		37
Mike Toorop	0.20%	500	351		156
Nacho Elvira	0.80%	125	101		83
Nathan Kimsey	1.14%	88	51		17
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen	0.48%	208	111		101
Niklas Lemke	0.46%	217	151		114
Niklas Regner	0.14%	714	351		142
Oihan Guillamoundeguy	0.87%	115	101		37
Oliver Lindell	1.39%	72	46		17
Pablo Larrazabal	0.31%	323	176		83
Per Langfors	0.37%	270	201		142
Quentin Debove	0.27%	370	201		114
Quim Vidal	0.34%	294	151		101
Rafa Cabrera Bello	0.83%	120	101		3
Renato Paratore	0.42%	238	126		57
Ricardo Gouveia	0.76%	132	91		2
Richard Sarkozi	0.04%	2500	401		148
Richard Sterne	0.95%	105	81		37
Richie Ramsay	0.91%	110	126	0.10%	25	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rikuya Hoshino	0.77%	130	126		83
Robin Williams	0.35%	286	176		37
Rocco Repetto Taylor	0.60%	167	126		114
Romain Langasque	0.90%	111	91		57
Ross Fisher	0.52%	192	151		114
Ryan Peake	0.24%	417	276		101
Ryggs Johnston	0.17%	588	276		83
Sadom Kaewkanjana	0.51%	196	111		57
Sam Bairstow	0.79%	127	91		83
Scott Jamieson	0.48%	208	151		132
Sean Crocker	0.63%	159	101		9
Sebastian Garcia	0.37%	270	151		9
Sebastian Soderberg	0.80%	125	126		37
Sepp Straka	1.52%	66	26		25
Simon Forsstrom	0.41%	244	201		114
Stefano Mazzoli	0.44%	227	151		37
Thriston Lawrence	0.92%	109	71		37
Tim Hofmann	0.03%	3333	401		114
Timon Baltl	0.03%	3333	451		142
Tobias Jonsson	0.58%	172	126		3
Todd Clements	0.82%	122	91		148
Tom De Herrypon	0.00%	10000	401		57
Tom Vaillant	1.21%	83	71		25
Ugo Coussaud	1.18%	85	71		101
Wenyi Ding	1.09%	92	51		57
Yanhan Zhou	0.47%	213	101		1
Yannik Paul	0.33%	303	151		83
Yurav Premlall	0.64%	156	91		17
Yuto Katsuragawa	0.54%	185	111		37
Yuvraj Sandhu	0.41%	244	151		101
Zander Lombard	0.65%	154	81		114

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Richie Ramsay	0.87%	115	251	0.50%	67	-2	Betway: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Daniel Rodrigues	1.07%	93	126	0.30%	115	-2	Betfred: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Fabrizio Zanotti	0.64%	156	226	0.20%	115	-2	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Richie Ramsay	0.91%	110	126	0.10%	25	-1.5	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Freddy Schott	0.78%	128	151	0.10%	132	-1.5	William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.