Simulation Results: Austrian Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Cockerill 0.62% 161 176 0.10% 13 -0.1 BetVictor: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adrian Otaegui 1.40% 71 101 0.40% 121 -0.4 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Adrien Saddier 1.12% 89 51 95
Albert Boneta 0.14% 714 301 22
Alejandro Del Rey 0.60% 167 101 80
Alex Fitzpatrick 1.67% 60 51 110
Alexander George Frances 0.06% 1667 751 117
Alexander Knappe 0.09% 1111 751
Alexander Levy 0.14% 714 501 17
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 0.17% 588 95
Algot Kleen 0.38% 263 251 130
Andrea Pavan 1.19% 84 67 67
Andreas Halvorsen 0.23% 435 176 80
Andrew Wilson 0.73% 137 126 138
Andy Sullivan 1.41% 71 81 0.20% 17 -0.2 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Angel Ayora 1.07% 93 51 80
Angel Hidalgo 0.51% 196 201 80
Bastien Amat 0.03% 3333 1001 80
Ben Schmidt 0.63% 159 126 80
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.11% 909 1001 110
Benjamin Hebert 0.49% 204 201 130
Bernard Neumayer 0.00% 10000 2501 148
Bernd Wiesberger 1.25% 80 71 51
Bjorn Akesson 0.10% 1000 751 121
Brandon Robinson Thompson 1.60% 63 51 130
Brandon Stone 1.29% 78 56 11
Brandon Wu 0.81% 123 161 0.20% 27 -0.2 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Callum Shinkwin 0.43% 233 131 66
Callum Tarren 0.33% 303 301 5
Calum Hill 0.81% 123 81 34
Casey Jarvis 0.67% 149 111 95
Chris Wood 0.09% 1111 501 80
Christoph Bleier 0.05% 2000 601 130
Clement Sordet 0.20% 500 276 95
Connor Syme 0.52% 192 161 59
Conor Purcell 0.37% 270 176 56
Corey Shaun 0.10% 1000 601 37
Dale Whitnell 0.23% 435 751 0.10% 117 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dan Bradbury 0.47% 213 201 67
Dan Erickson 0.27% 370 401 121
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 0.67% 149 91 153
Daniel Gale 0.07% 1429 751 17
Daniel Hillier 1.31% 76 61 37
Danny List 0.07% 1429 751 27
Darius Van Driel 1.22% 82 111 0.30% 80 -0.3 Betfred: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darren Fichardt 0.36% 278 276
David Ennsmann 0.00% 10000 3001 151
David Micheluzzi 0.58% 172 131 80
David Ravetto 0.49% 204 151 80
Davis Bryant 0.33% 303 226 42
Deon Germishuys 0.19% 526 351 67
Dylan Frittelli 0.62% 161 131 95
Dylan Naidoo 0.06% 1667 501 80
Edoardo Molinari 1.14% 88 71 22
Elvis Smylie 0.44% 227 151 95
Eugenio Chacarra 2.38% 42 29 27
Fabian Fischer 0.00% 10000 2501 138
Fabian Lang 0.01% 10000 2501 150
Fabrizio Zanotti 1.41% 71 101 0.40% 42 -0.4 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Florian Schweighofer 0.00% 10000 2501 149
Francesco Laporta 1.53% 65 41 27
Freddy Schott 0.33% 303 181 37
Frederic Lacroix 1.39% 72 51 42
Gavin Green 0.34% 294 201 34
Grant Forrest 0.75% 133 126 59
Gregorio De Leo 0.44% 227 176 142
Hamish Brown 0.23% 435 276 130
Haotong Li 2.61% 38 23 27
Ivan Cantero 0.46% 217 126 80
Jacob Skov Olesen 1.40% 71 81 0.20% 42 -0.2 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacques Kruyswijk 0.71% 141 71 80
Jakob Lotschak 0.00% 10000 2501 130
Jannik De Bruyn 0.20% 500 351 67
Jason Scrivener 1.03% 97 121 0.20% 95 -0.2 Spreadex: 120/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jayden Schaper 1.03% 97 61 5
Jean Bekirian 0.07% 1429 751 130
Jeff Winther 0.46% 217 201 4
Jens Dantorp 0.40% 250 201 67
Jeong Weon Ko 0.13% 769 351 95
Joakim Lagergren 0.32% 313 276 42
Joe Dean 0.56% 179 126 22
Joel Girrbach 0.23% 435 351 95
Joel Moscatel 0.18% 556 376 95
John Catlin 0.51% 196 71 8
Joost Luiten 3.20% 31 29 67
Jordan Gumberg 0.29% 345 226 142
Jordan Smith 4.10% 24 17 130
Jorge Campillo 1.89% 53 56 0.10% 56 -0.1 BetVictor: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julien Brun 0.07% 1429 751 42
Julien Guerrier 1.51% 66 61 34
Justin Harding 0.11% 909 501 121
Kazuma Kobori 0.97% 103 111 0.10% 95 -0.1 BetVictor: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keita Nakajima 2.06% 49 36 11
Kristoffer Reitan 1.09% 92 51 2
Luca Denk 0.00% 10000 4001 151
Lucas Bjerregaard 0.19% 526 601 17
Luis Masaveu 0.53% 189 126 138
Lukas Boandl 0.00% 10000 2501 121
Lukas Nemecz 0.21% 476 201 110
Luke Donald 0.21% 476 301 95
Manuel Elvira 0.43% 233 176 67
Marc Warren 0.01% 10000 2501 95
Marcel Schneider 0.99% 101 101 2
Marcel Siem 0.57% 175 141 5
Marcus Armitage 0.81% 123 126 13
Marcus Kinhult 0.63% 159 151 37
Martin Couvra 1.64% 61 51 8
Martin Trainer 0.00% 10000 2001 138
Matthew Baldwin 0.18% 556 501 27
Matthew Jordan 2.25% 44 31 153
Matthew Southgate 0.68% 147 126 110
Matthias Schwab 0.08% 1250 751 64
Maximilian Kieffer 0.59% 169 176 51
Maximilian Steinlechner 0.18% 556 176 22
Mikael Lindberg 0.19% 526 351 63
Nacho Elvira 1.04% 96 91 121
Nathan Kimsey 0.91% 110 111 80
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.42% 238 176 1
Nicolas Colsaerts 0.25% 400 301 42
Niklas Lemke 0.61% 164 101 67
Niklas Regner 0.01% 10000 2501 67
Ockie Strydom 0.05% 2000 751 142
Oliver Lindell 0.95% 105 81 13
Pablo Larrazabal 0.50% 200 131 51
Pierre Pineau 0.08% 1250 601 110
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.27% 370 376 22
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 3.91% 26 17 67
Ricardo Gouveia 0.39% 256 151 121
Richard Mansell 1.25% 80 51 42
Richard Sterne 0.15% 667 751 59
Robin Williams 0.50% 200 151 56
Romain Langasque 1.96% 51 71 0.60% 110 -0.6 Betfred: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ross Fisher 0.24% 417 501 95
Ryan Van Velzen 0.13% 769 501 67
Ryggs Johnston 0.20% 500 251 64
Scott Jamieson 0.80% 125 131 37
Sebastian Soderberg 1.08% 93 91 8
Shubhankar Sharma 0.37% 270 251 117
Simon Forsstrom 0.23% 435 251 17
Tadeas Tetak 0.14% 714 501 121
Tapio Pulkkanen 0.42% 238 161 146
Thomas Aiken 0.49% 204 301 0.20% 117 -0.2 BetVictor: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tiger Christensen 0.13% 769 501 142
Timon Baltl 0.02% 5000 1001 110
Todd Clements 0.84% 119 91 80
Tom Vaillant 0.66% 152 131 67
Troy Merritt 0.67% 149 151 27
Ugo Coussaud 1.44% 69 61 146
Veer Ahlawat 0.08% 1250 601 13
Wenyi Ding 1.63% 61 56 51
Wil Besseling 0.15% 667 401 59
Wilco Nienaber 0.60% 167 101 121
Yannik Paul 1.15% 87 81 95
Yuto Katsuragawa 0.56% 179 131 51
Zander Lombard 0.09% 1111 501 42
Zihao Jin 0.00% 10000 501 67

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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