Simulation Results: Abu Dhabi Championship

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Aaron Rai 3.64% 27 23 1
Adrien Saddier 0.73% 137 126 41
Alejandro Del Rey 0.39% 256 251 17
Alex Fitzpatrick 1.00% 100 111 0.10% 41 -0.1 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alex Noren 4.05% 25 26 0.20% 17 -0.2 Priced Up: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrea Pavan 0.62% 161 226 0.20% 23 -0.2 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andy Sullivan 0.96% 104 126 0.20% 7 -0.2 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Angel Ayora 1.55% 65 46 9
Ben Schmidt 0.42% 238 201 68
Brandon Robinson Thompson 0.75% 133 181 0.20% 49 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 175/1, 7pl, 1/5
Calum Hill 0.51% 196 201 17
Connor Syme 0.29% 345 301 32
Daniel Brown (Oct1994) 0.70% 143 101 17
Daniel Hillier 0.75% 133 101 5
Darius Van Driel 0.34% 294 376 0.10% 60 -0.1 Skybet: 375/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dylan Naidoo 0.12% 833 2001 0.10% 62 -0.1 Priced Up: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Elvis Smylie 0.58% 172 111 32
Eugenio Chacarra 0.71% 141 126 39
Ewen Ferguson 0.72% 139 126 49
Francesco Laporta 1.11% 90 101 0.10% 32 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 90/1, 7pl, 1/5
Grant Forrest 0.51% 196 176 38
Haotong Li 0.76% 132 81 32
Jacob Skov Olesen 0.54% 185 151 23
Jacques Kruyswijk 0.41% 244 251 70
Jayden Schaper 1.79% 56 56 23
Jeong Weon Ko 0.09% 1111 1001 72
Joakim Lagergren 0.69% 145 111 62
Joe Dean 0.23% 435 751 0.10% 49 -0.1 10Bet: 750/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joel Girrbach 0.41% 244 251 39
Johannes Veerman 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 49 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
John Parry 0.99% 101 101 17
Joost Luiten 1.48% 68 81 0.20% 41 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 75/1, 7pl, 1/5
Jordan Smith 1.79% 56 61 0.20% 15 -0.2 10Bet: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jorge Campillo 0.90% 111 151 0.20% 56 -0.2 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Junghwan Lee 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 71 -0.1 BetMGM: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kazuma Kobori 0.41% 244 226 41
Keita Nakajima 1.39% 72 71 12
Kristoffer Reitan 1.63% 61 51 22
Laurie Canter 0.90% 111 81 23
Ludvig Aberg 3.28% 30 15 23
Manuel Elvira 0.23% 435 476 49
Marcel Schneider 0.54% 185 276 0.20% 56 -0.2 Skybet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marco Penge 1.59% 63 29 9
Marcus Armitage 0.58% 172 201 0.10% 23 -0.1 Bresbet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Couvra 0.81% 123 151 0.10% 23 -0.1 BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Fitzpatrick 4.15% 24 15 32
Matthew Jordan 0.60% 167 176 15
Michael Kim 1.73% 58 56 32
Mikael Lindberg 0.57% 175 176 41
Nacho Elvira 0.34% 294 376 0.10% 7 -0.1 Skybet: 375/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicolai Hojgaard 1.90% 53 34 3
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 0.31% 323 351 59
Oliver Lindell 1.02% 98 91 41
Patrick Reed 2.50% 40 41 0.10% 49 -0.1 Skybet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.66% 152 161 62
Rasmus Hojgaard 2.74% 36 23 23
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 2.07% 48 36 23
Richard Mansell 0.43% 233 251 5
Richard Sterne 0.67% 149 226 0.20% 12 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 200/1, 7pl, 1/5
Robert Macintyre 5.16% 19 15 9
Romain Langasque 0.60% 167 276 0.20% 41 -0.2 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rory Mcilroy 5.88% 17 8 3
Ryan Gerard 1.24% 81 61 56
Ryggs Johnston 0.04% 2500 1501 69
Shane Lowry 3.52% 28 23 12
Shaun Norris 0.55% 182 326 0.20% 61 -0.2 Unibet: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thriston Lawrence 1.19% 84 67 62
Todd Clements 0.84% 119 101 67
Tom Mckibbin 4.21% 24 19 66
Tommy Fleetwood 7.48% 13 8.5 2
Tyrrell Hatton 6.29% 16 12 41
Ugo Coussaud 0.78% 128 101 49

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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