Simulation Results: WINSTONgolf Senior Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva 6.50% 15 11 7
Andre Bossert 0.44% 227 376 0.20% 10 -0.2 Unibet: 375/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Marshall 3.82% 26 31 0.60% 22 -0.6 Unibet: 30/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Oldcorn 0.29% 345 426 0.10% 41 -0.1 Unibet: 425/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ariel Canete 0.22% 455 326 53
Bernhard Langer 8.05% 12 5.5 1
Brian Davis 0.78% 128 151 0.10% 15 -0.1 Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carl Suneson 0.26% 385 301 38
Carlos Balmaseda 0.28% 357 426 50
Christian Cevaer 0.15% 667 501 34
Christoph Gunther 0.08% 1250 601 18
Clark Dennis 1.89% 53 61 0.30% 48 -0.3 QuinnBet: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Costantino Rocca 0.00% 10000 1001 60
Craig Farrelly 0.52% 192 201 34
David Drysdale 3.22% 31 34 0.30% 15 -0.3 PaddyPower: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Shacklady 0.22% 455 376 34
Elisabeth Esterl 0.00% 10000 2501 56
Ellen Smets 0.00% 10000 5001 59
Emanuele Canonica 1.86% 54 46 31
Euan Mcintosh 1.23% 81 131 0.50% 43 -0.5 Unibet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gary Murphy 0.37% 270 401 0.10% 18 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gary Orr 1.37% 73 201 0.90% 47 -0.9 Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Greg Owen 5.44% 18 18 8
Greig Hutcheon 2.20% 45 46 43
Helen Alfredsson 0.00% 10000 2001 51
James Kingston 3.15% 32 17 18
Jarmo Sandelin 0.54% 185 141 38
Jean-Francois Remesy 0.94% 106 101 22
Jonathan Lomas 0.01% 10000 1501 51
Jyoti Randhawa 0.78% 128 151 0.10% 48 -0.1 Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keith Horne 4.94% 20 15 22
Lionel Alexandre 1.53% 65 61 34
Maarten Lafeber 1.93% 52 41 10
Malcolm Mackenzie 0.05% 2000 1501 43
Mark Brown 5.89% 17 23 1.60% 22 -1.6 Boyle Sports: 22/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mark Mouland 0.03% 3333 1001 53
Mark Wharton 0.04% 2500 401 58
Markus Brier 2.22% 45 36 29
Matthew Cort 3.59% 28 21 3
Michael Jonzon 0.99% 101 126 0.20% 5 1.1 Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/5
Michael Long 0.60% 167 351 0.30% 31 -0.3 Boyle Sports: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Miguel Angel Martin 1.05% 95 201 0.60% 29 -0.6 Boyle Sports: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mikael Lundberg 5.15% 19 11 18
Niclas Fasth 0.19% 526 1001 0.10% 15 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 1000/1, 6pl, 1/5
Patricia Beliard 0.00% 10000 2001 56
Patrik Sjoland 1.88% 53 76 0.60% 2 5.325 Unibet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Streeter 0.40% 250 301 0.10% 5 1.64375 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Baker 6.25% 16 10 4
Philip Golding 0.65% 154 301 0.30% 22 -0.3 Boyle Sports: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Phillip Archer 1.47% 68 41 31
Phillip Price 2.75% 36 26 22
Raymond Russell 0.27% 370 426 43
Santiago Luna 0.26% 385 301 38
Scott Drummond 0.96% 104 151 0.30% 10 -0.3 Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Simon Griffiths 4.82% 21 18 9
Simon Khan 3.07% 33 23 22
Stephen Dodd 0.32% 313 501 0.10% 41 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sven Struver 0.00% 10000 1501 53
Thomas Gogele 2.78% 36 34 10
Van Phillips 1.37% 73 81 0.10% 10 -0.1 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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