Simulation Results: Swiss Seniors Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva	4.01%	25	17		7
Anders Hansen	1.94%	52	34		17
Andre Bossert	0.27%	370	251		39
Andrew Marshall	3.42%	29	46	1.30%	17	-1.3	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Oldcorn	0.08%	1250	751		39
Andrew Raitt	0.21%	476	351
Anthony Wall	2.50%	40	41	0.10%	33	-0.1	Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ariel Canete	0.33%	303	301		17
Bradley Dredge	4.73%	21	15		8
Brian Davis	1.42%	70	91	0.30%	49	-0.3	Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/5
Carl Suneson	0.12%	833	601		53
Christian Cevaer	0.05%	2000	1251		23
Clark Dennis	1.46%	68	56		47
Costantino Rocca	0.00%	10000	1501		56
Craig Farrelly	0.28%	357	401		23
Darren Fichardt	10.90%	9.2	6.5		14
David Drysdale	6.70%	15	10		23
David Gilford	0.01%	10000	1501		56
David Shacklady	0.12%	833	401		8
Emanuele Canonica	1.72%	58	46		33
Euan Mcintosh	0.56%	179	126		51
Gary Orr	1.09%	92	81		39
Greig Hutcheon	2.17%	46	51	0.20%	12	-0.2	Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/5
James Kingston	2.53%	40	17		39
Jarmo Sandelin	0.48%	208	101		17
Jean Van De Velde	0.02%	5000	751		53
Jean-Francois Remesy	0.30%	333	201		5
Jeev Milkha Singh	1.41%	71	61		12
Joakim Haeggman	1.90%	53	51		17
Jonathan Lomas	0.00%	10000	1501		30
Jose Coceres	0.04%	2500	1001		46
Juan Quiros	0.07%	1429	501		55
Jyoti Randhawa	0.63%	159	111		60
Keith Horne	5.18%	19	11		2
Lionel Alexandre	0.39%	256	101		23
Maarten Lafeber	1.56%	64	111	0.70%	39	-0.7	Bresbet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mark Brown	0.79%	127	91		1
Markus Brier	0.70%	143	141		14
Matthew Cort	6.98%	14	23	2.80%	39	-2.8	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Jonzon	0.28%	357	176		30
Michael Long	0.30%	333	401	0.10%	47	-0.1	Spreadex: 400/1, 5pl, 1/5
Miguel Angel Martin	0.37%	270	301		30
Mikael Lundberg	2.46%	41	51	0.50%	5	1.03125	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Niclas Fasth	0.05%	2000	751		56
Patrik Sjoland	1.53%	65	51		23
Peter Baker	6.62%	15	9.5		23
Philip Golding	0.25%	400	251		33
Phillip Archer	0.81%	123	81		14
Phillip Price	1.19%	84	91	0.10%	23	-0.1	Star Sports: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robert Coles	2.17%	46	36		2
Santiago Luna	0.05%	2000	601		49
Shinichi Yokota	0.45%	222	101		33
Simon Griffiths	3.79%	26	19		8
Simon Khan	2.14%	47	29		39
Stephen Dodd	0.12%	833	601		51
Stephen Gallacher	7.26%	14	13		33
Steve Webster	0.26%	385	101		56
Thomas Gogele	2.04%	49	46		8
Thomas Levet	0.09%	1111	751		17
Van Phillips	0.70%	143	81		2

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva	11.67%	8.6
Anders Hansen	6.40%	16
Andre Bossert	1.17%	85
Andrew Marshall	10.37%	9.6
Andrew Oldcorn	0.38%	263
Andrew Raitt	1.03%	97
Anthony Wall	7.92%	13
Ariel Canete	1.42%	70
Bradley Dredge	13.37%	7.5
Brian Davis	4.84%	21
Carl Suneson	0.65%	154
Christian Cevaer	0.27%	370
Clark Dennis	4.95%	20
Costantino Rocca	0.00%	10000
Craig Farrelly	1.23%	81
Darren Fichardt	25.34%	3.9
David Drysdale	17.75%	5.6
David Gilford	0.10%	1000
David Shacklady	0.57%	175
Emanuele Canonica	5.88%	17
Euan Mcintosh	2.30%	43
Gary Orr	4.14%	24
Greig Hutcheon	6.97%	14
James Kingston	8.07%	12
Jarmo Sandelin	1.92%	52
Jean Van De Velde	0.12%	833
Jean-Francois Remesy	1.24%	81
Jeev Milkha Singh	4.90%	20
Joakim Haeggman	6.20%	16
Jonathan Lomas	0.02%	5000
Jose Coceres	0.23%	435
Juan Quiros	0.39%	256
Jyoti Randhawa	2.38%	42
Keith Horne	14.34%	7
Lionel Alexandre	1.66%	60
Maarten Lafeber	5.35%	19
Mark Brown	3.05%	33
Markus Brier	2.72%	37
Matthew Cort	18.18%	5.5
Michael Jonzon	1.30%	77
Michael Long	1.25%	80
Miguel Angel Martin	1.48%	68
Mikael Lundberg	7.74%	13
Niclas Fasth	0.24%	417
Patrik Sjoland	5.36%	19
Peter Baker	17.06%	5.9
Philip Golding	1.29%	78
Phillip Archer	3.12%	32
Phillip Price	4.25%	24
Robert Coles	7.00%	14
Santiago Luna	0.27%	370
Shinichi Yokota	1.82%	55
Simon Griffiths	11.09%	9
Simon Khan	6.93%	14
Stephen Dodd	0.60%	167
Stephen Gallacher	18.69%	5.4
Steve Webster	1.18%	85
Thomas Gogele	6.70%	15
Thomas Levet	0.51%	196
Van Phillips	2.67%	37

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva	18.64%	5.4
Anders Hansen	11.02%	9.1
Andre Bossert	2.44%	41
Andrew Marshall	16.90%	5.9
Andrew Oldcorn	0.86%	116
Andrew Raitt	2.23%	45
Anthony Wall	13.49%	7.4
Ariel Canete	2.89%	35
Bradley Dredge	20.88%	4.8
Brian Davis	8.75%	11
Carl Suneson	1.36%	74
Christian Cevaer	0.63%	159
Clark Dennis	8.90%	11
Costantino Rocca	0.01%	10000
Craig Farrelly	2.50%	40
Darren Fichardt	35.91%	2.8
David Drysdale	26.86%	3.7
David Gilford	0.23%	435
David Shacklady	1.30%	77
Emanuele Canonica	10.33%	9.7
Euan Mcintosh	4.64%	22
Gary Orr	7.56%	13
Greig Hutcheon	11.92%	8.4
James Kingston	13.60%	7.4
Jarmo Sandelin	3.73%	27
Jean Van De Velde	0.32%	313
Jean-Francois Remesy	2.61%	38
Jeev Milkha Singh	8.87%	11
Joakim Haeggman	10.74%	9.3
Jonathan Lomas	0.06%	1667
Jose Coceres	0.54%	185
Juan Quiros	0.89%	112
Jyoti Randhawa	4.72%	21
Keith Horne	22.50%	4.4
Lionel Alexandre	3.41%	29
Maarten Lafeber	9.54%	10
Mark Brown	5.84%	17
Markus Brier	5.26%	19
Matthew Cort	27.31%	3.7
Michael Jonzon	2.69%	37
Michael Long	2.56%	39
Miguel Angel Martin	3.06%	33
Mikael Lundberg	13.31%	7.5
Niclas Fasth	0.59%	169
Patrik Sjoland	9.52%	11
Peter Baker	25.95%	3.9
Philip Golding	2.70%	37
Phillip Archer	5.93%	17
Phillip Price	7.86%	13
Robert Coles	12.04%	8.3
Santiago Luna	0.64%	156
Shinichi Yokota	3.52%	28
Simon Griffiths	18.00%	5.6
Simon Khan	11.87%	8.4
Stephen Dodd	1.36%	74
Stephen Gallacher	27.85%	3.6
Steve Webster	2.48%	40
Thomas Gogele	11.55%	8.7
Thomas Levet	1.16%	86
Van Phillips	5.18%	19

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva	34.62%	2.9
Anders Hansen	22.90%	4.4
Andre Bossert	7.06%	14
Andrew Marshall	31.76%	3.1
Andrew Oldcorn	2.89%	35
Andrew Raitt	6.39%	16
Anthony Wall	26.86%	3.7
Ariel Canete	7.92%	13
Bradley Dredge	37.26%	2.7
Brian Davis	19.35%	5.2
Carl Suneson	4.43%	23
Christian Cevaer	2.20%	45
Clark Dennis	19.49%	5.1
Costantino Rocca	0.08%	1250
Craig Farrelly	7.05%	14
Darren Fichardt	54.31%	1.84
David Drysdale	44.73%	2.2
David Gilford	0.99%	101
David Shacklady	4.10%	24
Emanuele Canonica	21.89%	4.6
Euan Mcintosh	11.56%	8.7
Gary Orr	17.15%	5.8
Greig Hutcheon	24.40%	4.1
James Kingston	27.08%	3.7
Jarmo Sandelin	9.81%	10
Jean Van De Velde	1.19%	84
Jean-Francois Remesy	7.26%	14
Jeev Milkha Singh	19.53%	5.1
Joakim Haeggman	22.65%	4.4
Jonathan Lomas	0.30%	333
Jose Coceres	1.91%	52
Juan Quiros	3.11%	32
Jyoti Randhawa	11.87%	8.4
Keith Horne	39.32%	2.5
Lionel Alexandre	9.09%	11
Maarten Lafeber	20.77%	4.8
Mark Brown	13.97%	7.2
Markus Brier	12.82%	7.8
Matthew Cort	45.10%	2.2
Michael Jonzon	7.35%	14
Michael Long	7.03%	14
Miguel Angel Martin	8.33%	12
Mikael Lundberg	26.46%	3.8
Niclas Fasth	2.09%	48
Patrik Sjoland	20.35%	4.9
Peter Baker	43.41%	2.3
Philip Golding	7.47%	13
Phillip Archer	14.09%	7.1
Phillip Price	17.58%	5.7
Robert Coles	24.62%	4.1
Santiago Luna	2.21%	45
Shinichi Yokota	9.17%	11
Simon Griffiths	33.61%	3
Simon Khan	24.08%	4.2
Stephen Dodd	4.29%	23
Stephen Gallacher	45.84%	2.2
Steve Webster	6.98%	14
Thomas Gogele	23.77%	4.2
Thomas Levet	3.53%	28
Van Phillips	12.64%	7.9

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva	59.21%	1.69
Anders Hansen	45.74%	2.2
Andre Bossert	20.10%	5
Andrew Marshall	56.11%	1.78
Andrew Oldcorn	10.35%	9.7
Andrew Raitt	19.14%	5.2
Anthony Wall	50.58%	1.98
Ariel Canete	22.26%	4.5
Bradley Dredge	61.71%	1.62
Brian Davis	40.83%	2.4
Carl Suneson	14.40%	6.9
Christian Cevaer	8.53%	12
Clark Dennis	40.91%	2.4
Costantino Rocca	0.54%	185
Craig Farrelly	20.05%	5
Darren Fichardt	76.58%	1.31
David Drysdale	68.80%	1.45
David Gilford	4.49%	22
David Shacklady	13.57%	7.4
Emanuele Canonica	44.43%	2.3
Euan Mcintosh	28.65%	3.5
Gary Orr	37.71%	2.7
Greig Hutcheon	47.78%	2.1
James Kingston	50.88%	1.97
Jarmo Sandelin	25.60%	3.9
Jean Van De Velde	5.31%	19
Jean-Francois Remesy	20.77%	4.8
Jeev Milkha Singh	40.94%	2.4
Joakim Haeggman	45.46%	2.2
Jonathan Lomas	1.85%	54
Jose Coceres	7.47%	13
Juan Quiros	11.12%	9
Jyoti Randhawa	29.18%	3.4
Keith Horne	63.71%	1.57
Lionel Alexandre	24.36%	4.1
Maarten Lafeber	42.88%	2.3
Mark Brown	32.95%	3
Markus Brier	30.98%	3.2
Matthew Cort	69.06%	1.45
Michael Jonzon	20.83%	4.8
Michael Long	20.47%	4.9
Miguel Angel Martin	22.76%	4.4
Mikael Lundberg	50.24%	1.99
Niclas Fasth	8.23%	12
Patrik Sjoland	42.60%	2.3
Peter Baker	67.65%	1.48
Philip Golding	21.16%	4.7
Phillip Archer	33.31%	3
Phillip Price	38.40%	2.6
Robert Coles	47.93%	2.1
Santiago Luna	8.47%	12
Shinichi Yokota	24.08%	4.2
Simon Griffiths	58.00%	1.72
Simon Khan	47.37%	2.1
Stephen Dodd	14.08%	7.1
Stephen Gallacher	69.69%	1.43
Steve Webster	19.99%	5
Thomas Gogele	46.64%	2.1
Thomas Levet	12.44%	8
Van Phillips	30.68%	3.3

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva	76.87%	1.3
Anders Hansen	65.78%	1.52
Andre Bossert	37.57%	2.7
Andrew Marshall	74.39%	1.34
Andrew Oldcorn	23.24%	4.3
Andrew Raitt	36.29%	2.8
Anthony Wall	70.16%	1.43
Ariel Canete	40.15%	2.5
Bradley Dredge	78.86%	1.27
Brian Davis	61.06%	1.64
Carl Suneson	29.44%	3.4
Christian Cevaer	19.90%	5
Clark Dennis	61.13%	1.64
Costantino Rocca	2.13%	47
Craig Farrelly	37.46%	2.7
Darren Fichardt	88.87%	1.13
David Drysdale	83.69%	1.19
David Gilford	12.10%	8.3
David Shacklady	28.29%	3.5
Emanuele Canonica	64.39%	1.55
Euan Mcintosh	48.03%	2.1
Gary Orr	58.09%	1.72
Greig Hutcheon	67.59%	1.48
James Kingston	70.42%	1.42
Jarmo Sandelin	44.53%	2.2
Jean Van De Velde	13.74%	7.3
Jean-Francois Remesy	38.43%	2.6
Jeev Milkha Singh	61.28%	1.63
Joakim Haeggman	65.57%	1.53
Jonathan Lomas	5.99%	17
Jose Coceres	17.89%	5.6
Juan Quiros	24.19%	4.1
Jyoti Randhawa	48.52%	2.1
Keith Horne	80.30%	1.25
Lionel Alexandre	42.94%	2.3
Maarten Lafeber	62.94%	1.59
Mark Brown	52.83%	1.89
Markus Brier	50.72%	1.97
Matthew Cort	84.10%	1.19
Michael Jonzon	38.19%	2.6
Michael Long	38.15%	2.6
Miguel Angel Martin	40.91%	2.4
Mikael Lundberg	69.67%	1.44
Niclas Fasth	19.37%	5.2
Patrik Sjoland	62.71%	1.59
Peter Baker	83.17%	1.2
Philip Golding	38.89%	2.6
Phillip Archer	53.36%	1.87
Phillip Price	58.85%	1.7
Robert Coles	67.55%	1.48
Santiago Luna	19.82%	5
Shinichi Yokota	42.55%	2.4
Simon Griffiths	75.93%	1.32
Simon Khan	67.08%	1.49
Stephen Dodd	29.12%	3.4
Stephen Gallacher	84.49%	1.18
Steve Webster	37.41%	2.7
Thomas Gogele	66.47%	1.5
Thomas Levet	26.19%	3.8
Van Phillips	50.30%	1.99

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva	89.26%	1.12
Anders Hansen	81.96%	1.22
Andre Bossert	58.15%	1.72
Andrew Marshall	87.68%	1.14
Andrew Oldcorn	41.78%	2.4
Andrew Raitt	57.07%	1.75
Anthony Wall	84.94%	1.18
Ariel Canete	60.83%	1.64
Bradley Dredge	90.44%	1.11
Brian Davis	78.48%	1.27
Carl Suneson	49.37%	2
Christian Cevaer	37.66%	2.7
Clark Dennis	78.78%	1.27
Costantino Rocca	6.50%	15
Craig Farrelly	58.07%	1.72
Darren Fichardt	95.71%	1.04
David Drysdale	93.07%	1.07
David Gilford	26.10%	3.8
David Shacklady	47.94%	2.1
Emanuele Canonica	81.09%	1.23
Euan Mcintosh	68.06%	1.47
Gary Orr	76.51%	1.31
Greig Hutcheon	83.28%	1.2
James Kingston	85.21%	1.17
Jarmo Sandelin	64.89%	1.54
Jean Van De Velde	28.78%	3.5
Jean-Francois Remesy	59.01%	1.69
Jeev Milkha Singh	78.90%	1.27
Joakim Haeggman	81.84%	1.22
Jonathan Lomas	15.42%	6.5
Jose Coceres	34.97%	2.9
Juan Quiros	43.07%	2.3
Jyoti Randhawa	68.50%	1.46
Keith Horne	91.23%	1.1
Lionel Alexandre	63.28%	1.58
Maarten Lafeber	79.97%	1.25
Mark Brown	72.16%	1.39
Markus Brier	70.39%	1.42
Matthew Cort	93.22%	1.07
Michael Jonzon	58.41%	1.71
Michael Long	58.66%	1.7
Miguel Angel Martin	61.55%	1.62
Mikael Lundberg	84.89%	1.18
Niclas Fasth	36.81%	2.7
Patrik Sjoland	79.89%	1.25
Peter Baker	92.70%	1.08
Philip Golding	59.59%	1.68
Phillip Archer	72.38%	1.38
Phillip Price	77.04%	1.3
Robert Coles	83.24%	1.2
Santiago Luna	37.61%	2.7
Shinichi Yokota	63.18%	1.58
Simon Griffiths	88.51%	1.13
Simon Khan	82.95%	1.21
Stephen Dodd	49.17%	2
Stephen Gallacher	93.49%	1.07
Steve Webster	58.30%	1.72
Thomas Gogele	82.64%	1.21
Thomas Levet	45.49%	2.2
Van Phillips	69.91%	1.43

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva	0.00%	10000
Anders Hansen	0.00%	10000
Andre Bossert	0.00%	10000
Andrew Marshall	0.00%	10000
Andrew Oldcorn	0.00%	10000
Andrew Raitt	0.00%	10000
Anthony Wall	0.00%	10000
Ariel Canete	0.00%	10000
Bradley Dredge	0.00%	10000
Brian Davis	0.00%	10000
Carl Suneson	0.00%	10000
Christian Cevaer	0.00%	10000
Clark Dennis	0.00%	10000
Costantino Rocca	0.00%	10000
Craig Farrelly	0.00%	10000
Darren Fichardt	0.00%	10000
David Drysdale	0.00%	10000
David Gilford	0.00%	10000
David Shacklady	0.00%	10000
Emanuele Canonica	0.00%	10000
Euan Mcintosh	0.00%	10000
Gary Orr	0.00%	10000
Greig Hutcheon	0.00%	10000
James Kingston	0.00%	10000
Jarmo Sandelin	0.00%	10000
Jean Van De Velde	0.00%	10000
Jean-Francois Remesy	0.00%	10000
Jeev Milkha Singh	0.00%	10000
Joakim Haeggman	0.00%	10000
Jonathan Lomas	0.00%	10000
Jose Coceres	0.00%	10000
Juan Quiros	0.00%	10000
Jyoti Randhawa	0.00%	10000
Keith Horne	0.00%	10000
Lionel Alexandre	0.00%	10000
Maarten Lafeber	0.00%	10000
Mark Brown	0.00%	10000
Markus Brier	0.00%	10000
Matthew Cort	0.00%	10000
Michael Jonzon	0.00%	10000
Michael Long	0.00%	10000
Miguel Angel Martin	0.00%	10000
Mikael Lundberg	0.00%	10000
Niclas Fasth	0.00%	10000
Patrik Sjoland	0.00%	10000
Peter Baker	0.00%	10000
Philip Golding	0.00%	10000
Phillip Archer	0.00%	10000
Phillip Price	0.00%	10000
Robert Coles	0.00%	10000
Santiago Luna	0.00%	10000
Shinichi Yokota	0.00%	10000
Simon Griffiths	0.00%	10000
Simon Khan	0.00%	10000
Stephen Dodd	0.00%	10000
Stephen Gallacher	0.00%	10000
Steve Webster	0.00%	10000
Thomas Gogele	0.00%	10000
Thomas Levet	0.00%	10000
Van Phillips	0.00%	10000

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Matthew Cort	6.98%	14	23	2.80%	39	-2	Bet365: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Andrew Marshall	3.42%	29	46	1.30%	17	-2	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Maarten Lafeber	1.56%	64	111	0.70%	39	-2	Bresbet: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.