Simulation Results: NI Legends

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva 3.38% 30 26 6
Andrew Marshall 2.16% 46 51 0.20% 6 -0.2 QuinnBet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Oldcorn 0.09% 1111 751 41
Anthony Wall 1.96% 51 41 14
Ariel Canete 0.18% 556 601 18
Bradley Dredge 5.14% 19 13 14
Brian Davis 0.86% 116 111 49
Carl Suneson 0.06% 1667 1001 45
Christian Cevaer 0.10% 1000 401 37
Clark Dennis 0.87% 115 91 23
Craig Barlow 1.96% 51 21 47
Craig Farrelly 0.22% 455 251 29
Damian Mooney 0.60% 167 351 0.30% 47 -0.3 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darren Fichardt 14.89% 6.7 5.75 23
David Drysdale 3.91% 26 26 0.10% 37 -0.1 Bresbet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/5
David Howell 0.35% 286 151 41
David Shacklady 0.08% 1250 401 55
Emanuele Canonica 1.23% 81 81 52
Euan Mcintosh 0.45% 222 251 0.10% 11 -0.1 PaddyPower: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gary Murphy 0.24% 417 401 52
Gary Orr 0.65% 154 201 0.20% 52 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Owen 2.92% 34 34 18
Greig Hutcheon 1.69% 59 61 0.10% 34 -0.1 PaddyPower: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ian Woosnam 0.19% 526 276 60
James Kingston 1.11% 90 67 6
Jarmo Sandelin 0.21% 476 201 18
Jean-Francois Remesy 0.78% 128 71 41
Jeev Milkha Singh 1.70% 59 51 9
Joakim Haeggman 1.84% 54 46 37
Jonathan Lomas 0.01% 10000 58
Jyoti Randhawa 0.28% 357 276 34
Keith Horne 3.98% 25 11 26
Lionel Alexandre 0.30% 333 201 3
Maarten Lafeber 1.73% 58 81 0.50% 29 -0.5 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mark Brown 4.21% 24 29 0.80% 11 -0.8 Skybet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Markus Brier 0.73% 137 141 1
Matthew Cort 2.63% 38 41 0.20% 18 -0.2 Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Michael Long 0.21% 476 601 26
Miguel Angel Martin 0.27% 370 501 0.10% 18 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mikael Lundberg 2.95% 34 19 2
Niclas Fasth 0.04% 2500 1501 49
Patrik Sjoland 0.75% 133 111 29
Peter Baker 4.88% 20 15 14
Philip Golding 0.18% 556 351 45
Phillip Archer 0.83% 120 91 56
Phillip Price 1.18% 85 67 3
Robert Coles 1.32% 76 41 23
Ryan Kartchner 0.01% 10000 276 59
Santiago Luna 0.06% 1667 751 11
Scott Hend 6.87% 15 11 29
Shinichi Yokota 0.27% 370 201 57
Simon Griffiths 3.18% 31 29 9
Simon Khan 2.28% 44 34 41
Stephen Dodd 0.05% 2000 1501 49
Stephen Gallacher 6.56% 15 11 26
Stephen Leaney 0.02% 5000 251 29
Steve Webster 2.15% 47 29 5
Thomas Gogele 1.75% 57 41 37
Thomas Levet 0.04% 2500 1001 14
Van Phillips 0.49% 204 111 34

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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