Simulation Results: Marbella Legends

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva	3.56%	28	26		22
Alastair Forsyth	0.00%	10000	81		27
Anders Hansen	1.12%	89	67		7
Andrew Marshall	2.23%	45	26		14
Anthony Grenier	0.00%	10000	176		22
Anthony Wall	1.14%	88	56
Bo Van Pelt	9.91%	10	11	0.90%	12	-0.9	William Hill: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brian Davis	0.09%	1111	251		49
Cameron Clark	0.02%	5000	301		58
Carl Suneson	0.00%	10000	751		14
Colin Montgomerie	2.34%	43	34		29
Craig Farrelly	0.09%	1111	151		7
David Drysdale	1.14%	88	56		56
David Howell	0.03%	3333	351		30
Emanuele Canonica	0.18%	556	126		37
Felipe Aguilar	0.19%	526	71		30
Garry Houston	0.00%	10000	751		53
Gary Orr	0.05%	2000	401		18
Greg Owen	2.64%	38	26		7
James Kingston	0.30%	333	67		47
Jamie Donaldson	10.75%	9.3	16	4.80%	1	45	Unibet: 15/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jarmo Sandelin	0.03%	3333	176		43
Jean-Francois Remesy	0.03%	3333	501		30
Jeev Milkha Singh	1.97%	51	46		22
Joakim Haeggman	0.90%	111	56		7
Johan Edfors	0.39%	256	81		7
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.17%	588	401		27
Juan Quiros	0.00%	10000	751		60
Keith Horne	2.58%	39	41	0.10%	40	-0.1	Spreadex: 40/1, 5pl, 1/5
Lionel Alexandre	0.06%	1667	126		14
Maarten Lafeber	0.66%	152	71		30
Markus Brier	0.19%	526	176		12
Matthew Cort	3.54%	28	29	0.10%	14	-0.1	Unibet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Campbell	0.09%	1111	151		49
Michael Jonzon	0.07%	1429	151		22
Miguel Angel Jimenez	13.10%	7.6	7		4
Miguel Angel Martin	0.03%	3333	501		30
Mikael Lundberg	2.61%	38	34		5
Niclas Fasth	0.00%	10000	1251		47
Patrik Sjoland	0.24%	417	101		40
Paul Lawrie	0.90%	111	36		18
Paul Streeter	0.01%	10000	401		40
Peter Baker	5.72%	17	17		22
Peter Lawrie	0.00%	10000	601		44
Philip Golding	0.00%	10000	1001		49
Phillip Archer	0.19%	526	151		37
Phillip Price	0.43%	233	111		44
Robert Coles	0.31%	323	91		44
Santiago Luna	0.00%	10000	501		55
Scott Hend	9.16%	11	9.5		5
Simon Griffiths	1.82%	55	41		56
Simon Khan	0.60%	167	101		49
Soren Hansen	0.00%	10000	126		30
Stephen Dodd	0.02%	5000	351		30
Stephen Gallacher	4.78%	21	23	0.50%	2	1.125	Unibet: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steve Webster	0.52%	192	67		37
Thomas Bjorn	12.36%	8.1	6		3
Thomas Gogele	0.69%	145	61		18
Thomas Levet	0.00%	10000	401		58
Van Phillips	0.05%	2000	101		53

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva	3.60%	28	26		9
Alastair Forsyth	0.05%	2000	41		37
Anders Hansen	2.00%	50	41		26
Andrew Marshall	2.80%	36	26		9
Anthony Grenier	0.15%	667	67		6
Anthony Wall	1.91%	52	36
Bo Van Pelt	5.99%	17	15		9
Brian Davis	0.63%	159	101		51
Cameron Clark	0.35%	286	101		51
Carl Suneson	0.12%	833	226		26
Colin Montgomerie	2.86%	35	29		26
Craig Farrelly	0.67%	149	61		45
David Drysdale	1.95%	51	41		37
David Howell	0.37%	270	111		51
Emanuele Canonica	0.92%	109	61		26
Felipe Aguilar	0.86%	116	46		37
Garry Houston	0.21%	476	176		37
Gary Orr	0.55%	182	176		9
Greg Owen	2.96%	34	26		21
James Kingston	1.12%	89	36		26
Jamie Donaldson	6.26%	16	19	1.10%	9	-1.1	Bet365: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jarmo Sandelin	0.45%	222	76		45
Jean-Francois Remesy	0.35%	286	151		26
Jeev Milkha Singh	2.58%	39	36		9
Joakim Haeggman	1.75%	57	41		1
Johan Edfors	1.22%	82	41		3
Jose Maria Olazabal	0.84%	119	126		26
Juan Quiros	0.03%	3333	301		56
Keith Horne	2.88%	35	36	0.10%	56	-0.1	Spreadex: 35/1, 4pl, 1/4
Lionel Alexandre	0.56%	179	61		21
Maarten Lafeber	1.59%	63	41		9
Markus Brier	0.92%	109	76		26
Matthew Cort	3.34%	30	26		9
Michael Campbell	0.64%	156	67		26
Michael Jonzon	0.60%	167	67		21
Miguel Angel Jimenez	6.92%	14	12		1
Miguel Angel Martin	0.46%	217	151		26
Mikael Lundberg	2.97%	34	29		6
Niclas Fasth	0.13%	769	251		37
Patrik Sjoland	0.98%	102	51		56
Paul Lawrie	1.81%	55	29		37
Paul Streeter	0.32%	313	126		45
Peter Baker	4.35%	23	19		26
Peter Lawrie	0.09%	1111	176		9
Philip Golding	0.19%	526	251		45
Phillip Archer	0.92%	109	67		45
Phillip Price	1.27%	79	56		60
Robert Coles	1.11%	90	51		51
Santiago Luna	0.14%	714	226		59
Scott Hend	5.73%	17	12		21
Simon Griffiths	2.53%	40	31		51
Simon Khan	1.49%	67	56		37
Soren Hansen	0.05%	2000	56		6
Stephen Dodd	0.30%	333	126		37
Stephen Gallacher	3.91%	26	23		3
Steve Webster	1.32%	76	41		9
Thomas Bjorn	6.70%	15	9		3
Thomas Gogele	1.62%	62	41		45
Thomas Levet	0.14%	714	126		9
Van Phillips	0.53%	189	51		9

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jamie Donaldson	10.75%	9.3	16	4.80%	1	18.75	Unibet: 15/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Bo Van Pelt	9.91%	10	11	0.90%	12	-2	William Hill: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Stephen Gallacher	4.78%	21	23	0.50%	2	4.5	Unibet: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jamie Donaldson	6.26%	16	19	1.10%	9	-1.5	Bet365: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Keith Horne	2.88%	35	36	0.10%	56	-1.5	Spreadex: 35/1, 4pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.