Simulation Results: Mallorca Legends

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva 5.97% 17 11 14
Anders Hansen 2.07% 48 41 12
Andrew Marshall 2.02% 50 34 14
Andrew Oldcorn 0.11% 909 1501 52
Ariel Canete 0.01% 10000 351 28
Brian Davis 4.35% 23 26 0.50% 19 -0.5 Ladbrokes: 25/1, 5pl, 1/5
Carl Suneson 0.49% 204 201 45
Carlos Balmaseda 0.26% 385 601 0.10% 28 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christian Cevaer 0.25% 400 1501 0.20% 60 -0.2 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Clark Dennis 1.07% 93 34 39
Colin Montgomerie 6.32% 16 34 3.50% 9 -3.5 Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Craig Farrelly 0.57% 175 301 0.20% 41 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Lynn 0.01% 10000 34 41
David Park 0.01% 10000 501 59
David Shacklady 0.25% 400 161 45
Emanuele Canonica 1.14% 88 51 41
Euan Mcintosh 0.76% 132 81 34
Gary Evans 0.26% 385 401 14
Gary Orr 0.89% 112 111 12
Greg Owen 1.84% 54 26 18
Greig Hutcheon 1.42% 70 51 32
James Kingston 1.49% 67 29 34
Jarmo Sandelin 0.53% 189 151 23
Jean-Francois Remesy 0.30% 333 201 50
Jeev Milkha Singh 2.29% 44 56 0.50% 19 -0.5 Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joakim Haeggman 2.07% 48 51 0.10% 14 -0.1 Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/5
Jonathan Lomas 0.00% 10000 1501 58
Jose Maria Olazabal 0.94% 106 401 0.70% 9 -0.7 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Juan Quiros 0.07% 1429 1251 45
Keith Horne 4.87% 21 23 0.50% 9 -0.5 Bet365: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lionel Alexandre 0.39% 256 151 4
Maarten Lafeber 0.01% 10000 151 34
Markus Brier 0.86% 116 201 0.40% 19 -0.4 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Cort 0.01% 10000 81 4
Michael Campbell 0.65% 154 201 0.20% 39 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Jonzon 1.31% 76 101 0.30% 50 -0.3 Spreadex: 100/1, 5pl, 1/5
Michael Long 0.69% 145 151 52
Miguel Angel Jimenez 11.65% 8.6 6 4
Miguel Angel Martin 0.49% 204 151 34
Mikael Lundberg 3.02% 33 51 1.10% 3 4.95 Spreadex: 50/1, 5pl, 1/5
Niclas Fasth 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 28 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patrik Sjoland 1.72% 58 51 45
Paul Lawrie 2.37% 42 251 2.00% 28 -2 Priced Up: 250/1, 5pl, 1/5
Peter Baker 4.08% 25 17 4
Peter Lawrie 0.32% 313 601 0.20% 52 -0.2 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Phillip Archer 1.66% 60 51 23
Phillip Price 2.04% 49 81 0.80% 26 -0.8 Spreadex: 80/1, 5pl, 1/5
Raphael Jacquelin 2.75% 36 251 2.40% 32 -2.4 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ricardo Gonzalez 5.03% 20 13
Robert Coles 1.38% 72 51 52
Roger Chapman 0.12% 833 751 34
Santiago Luna 0.08% 1250 1501 26
Scott Drummond 0.43% 233 401 0.20% 23 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Hend 6.03% 17 13 2
Shinichi Yokota 0.78% 128 81 41
Simon Griffiths 2.68% 37 26 1
Stephen Gallacher 4.36% 23 21 8
Thomas Gogele 1.29% 78 34 19
Thomas Levet 0.44% 227 401 0.20% 56 -0.2 Spreadex: 400/1, 5pl, 1/5
Van Phillips 0.61% 164 56 45

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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