Simulation Results: Irish Legends

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva 4.22% 24 13 11
Andrew Marshall 3.82% 26 21 33
Andrew Oldcorn 0.05% 2000 2001 18
Andrew Raitt 0.56% 179 201 0.10% 18 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ariel Canete 0.17% 588 501 30
Bradley Dredge 3.41% 29 19 18
Brian Davis 3.35% 30 29 40
Carl Suneson 0.43% 233 501 0.20% 51 -0.2 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carlos Balmaseda 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 40 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christian Cevaer 0.11% 909 2001 0.10% 51 -0.1 Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Clark Dennis 0.95% 105 51 26
Craig Farrelly 0.95% 105 276 0.60% 35 -0.6 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darren Fichardt 7.22% 14 7.5 2
David Drysdale 5.40% 19 13 7
David Gilford 0.03% 3333 2001 54
David Higgins 0.12% 833 601 35
David Park 0.00% 10000 501 35
David Shacklady 0.11% 909 251 35
Emanuele Canonica 1.05% 95 67 5
Euan Mcintosh 0.81% 123 126 51
Gary Evans 0.26% 385 351 40
Gary Murphy 0.17% 588 501 30
Greg Owen 4.10% 24 17 12
Greig Hutcheon 2.39% 42 71 1.00% 46 -1 Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Kingston 2.48% 40 21 1
Jarmo Sandelin 0.56% 179 126 33
Jean-Francois Remesy 0.23% 435 251 16
Jeev Milkha Singh 2.46% 41 56 0.70% 7 -0.7 Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joakim Haeggman 2.74% 36 41 0.30% 49 -0.3 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jonathan Lomas 0.01% 10000 2001 58
Jose Coceres 0.10% 1000 501 56
Keith Horne 4.34% 23 19 2
Lionel Alexandre 1.57% 64 34 46
Maarten Lafeber 0.22% 455 226 59
Markus Brier 0.66% 152 161 24
Matthew Cort 2.69% 37 34 18
Michael Campbell 0.79% 127 161 0.20% 45 -0.2 Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Jonzon 0.61% 164 126 17
Michael Long 0.35% 286 226 49
Miguel Angel Martin 0.24% 417 251 30
Mikael Lundberg 2.88% 35 34 12
Niclas Fasth 0.10% 1000 751 40
Patrik Sjoland 0.77% 130 101 26
Paul Lawrie 1.59% 63 41 12
Peter Baker 4.05% 25 13 2
Philip Golding 0.22% 455 501 18
Phillip Archer 1.02% 98 81 40
Phillip Price 1.40% 71 67 26
Robert Coles 1.54% 65 46 12
Roger Chapman 0.07% 1429 1001 55
Santiago Luna 0.15% 667 401 35
Scott Drummond 0.43% 233 501 0.20% 24 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Hend 8.90% 11 9 9
Shinichi Yokota 0.32% 313 301 56
Simon Griffiths 2.29% 44 19 5
Simon Khan 2.44% 41 29 9
Stephen Gallacher 9.12% 11 13 1.50% 46 -1.5 Bet365: 11/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steve Webster 0.11% 909 67 26
Thomas Gogele 1.74% 57 36
Van Phillips 0.90% 111 81 18

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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