Simulation Results: European Senior Masters

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva 4.90% 20 12 8
Andre Bossert 0.52% 192 251 0.10% 48 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Marshall 4.15% 24 19 13
Andrew Oldcorn 0.15% 667 751 53
Bradley Dredge 4.35% 23 15 15
Brian Davis 1.42% 70 91 0.30% 50 -0.3 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carl Suneson 0.20% 500 401 27
Chris Baron 0.00% 10000 1001 59
Christian Cevaer 0.16% 625 751 52
Clark Dennis 1.32% 76 61 30
Craig Farrelly 0.54% 185 151 21
David Drysdale 2.67% 37 46 0.50% 39 -0.5 Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Shacklady 0.22% 455 176 30
Emanuele Canonica 1.90% 53 51 36
Euan Mcintosh 0.90% 111 201 0.40% 39 -0.4 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gary Evans 0.26% 385 276 53
Greg Owen 3.49% 29 21 12
Greig Hutcheon 1.57% 64 81 0.30% 21 -0.3 Skybet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Kingston 1.77% 56 26 21
Jamie Donaldson 5.56% 18 21 0.80% 1 10 Ladbrokes: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jarmo Sandelin 0.51% 196 176 8
Jean-Francois Remesy 0.76% 132 201 0.30% 30 -0.3 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeff Williams 0.04% 2500 1001 48
Joakim Haeggman 2.88% 35 34 8
Jonathan Lomas 0.01% 10000 2001 60
Jose Coceres 0.05% 2000 301
Jyoti Randhawa 0.42% 238 176 53
Keith Horne 4.57% 22 26 0.80% 19 -0.8 Skybet: 25/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lionel Alexandre 1.12% 89 51 44
Maarten Lafeber 2.14% 47 41 8
Marc Farry 0.04% 2500 1001 53
Mark Ashworth 0.09% 1111 1001 47
Mark Mouland 0.06% 1667 1501 44
Markus Brier 1.39% 72 51 30
Matthew Cort 4.38% 23 19 5
Michael Campbell 0.88% 114 201 0.40% 5 3 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Jonzon 1.12% 89 91 44
Michael Long 0.34% 294 401 0.10% 21 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Miguel Angel Martin 0.70% 143 226 0.30% 50 -0.3 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mikael Lundberg 4.06% 25 17 2
Niclas Fasth 0.08% 1250 1001 30
Patrik Sjoland 2.18% 46 41 15
Paul Eales 0.19% 526 401 27
Paul Mcginley 0.27% 370 201 39
Peter Baker 7.00% 14 9 15
Philip Golding 0.31% 323 401 0.10% 39 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Phillip Archer 1.51% 66 67 14
Phillip Price 2.83% 35 26 19
Raymond Russell 0.18% 556 1001 0.10% 58 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robert Coles 1.63% 61 51 36
Santiago Luna 0.08% 1250 601 39
Scott Drummond 1.40% 71 71 57
Simon Griffiths 4.50% 22 23 0.20% 5 0.016666666666667 BetVictor: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Simon Khan 3.17% 32 34 0.20% 27 -0.2 Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Simon Wakefield 0.70% 143 141 21
Stephen Dodd 0.12% 833 401 36
Stephen Gallacher 6.55% 15 12 21
Steve Webster 2.00% 50 17 15
Thomas Gogele 2.57% 39 26 2
Van Phillips 1.16% 86 41 2

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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