Simulation Results: English Legends

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva 3.76% 27 21 9
Andrew Marshall 2.88% 35 29 33
Andrew Oldcorn 0.01% 10000 751 24
Ariel Canete 0.12% 833 401 58
Bradley Dredge 6.59% 15 15 2
Brian Davis 0.29% 345 131 14
Christian Cevaer 0.00% 10000 601 28
Clark Dennis 0.63% 159 81 36
Colin Montgomerie 2.96% 34 31 5
Craig Farrelly 0.02% 5000 251 17
David Drysdale 5.97% 17 26 2.20% 24 -2.2 Spreadex: 25/1, 5pl, 1/5
David Gilford 0.00% 10000 1001 52
David Shacklady 0.01% 10000 301 48
Emanuele Canonica 1.27% 79 61 41
Euan Mcintosh 0.12% 833 251 20
Gary Orr 0.28% 357 176 36
Greg Owen 4.56% 22 17 24
Greig Hutcheon 1.39% 72 56 9
James Kingston 1.39% 72 34 55
Jarmo Sandelin 0.06% 1667 126 55
Jean-Francois Remesy 0.20% 500 101 5
Jeev Milkha Singh 1.75% 57 91 0.70% 14 -0.7 Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/5
Joakim Haeggman 1.84% 54 46 9
Jonathan Lomas 0.00% 10000 1001 51
Jose Coceres 0.00% 10000 1001 52
Jyoti Randhawa 0.06% 1667 201 36
Keith Horne 7.59% 13 12 2
Lionel Alexandre 0.06% 1667 141 24
Maarten Lafeber 2.61% 38 67 1.10% 41 -1.1 Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mark Brown 6.49% 15 31 3.40% 9 -3.4 Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Markus Brier 0.38% 263 151 20
Matthew Cort 3.50% 29 29 0.10% 14 -0.1 QuinnBet: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Campbell 0.06% 1667 201 28
Michael Jonzon 0.24% 417 201 33
Michael Long 0.04% 2500 401 52
Miguel Angel Martin 0.07% 1429 326 45
Mikael Lundberg 3.51% 28 19 5
Niclas Fasth 0.00% 10000 1001 55
Patrik Sjoland 0.35% 286 91 41
Paul Lawrie 4.45% 22 15 33
Paul Streeter 0.04% 2500 251 36
Peter Baker 7.31% 14 12 4
Philip Golding 0.03% 3333 276 46
Phillip Archer 0.30% 333 126 20
Phillip Price 0.87% 115 61 17
Robert Coles 0.94% 106 34 9
Roger Chapman 0.00% 10000 351 59
Santiago Luna 0.00% 10000 1001 28
Scott Drummond 0.20% 500 176 28
Scott Hend 13.79% 7.3 8 1.50% 20 -1.5 Spreadex: 7/1, 5pl, 1/5
Shinichi Yokota 0.07% 1429 176 36
Simon Griffiths 6.09% 16 15 41
Simon Khan 2.43% 41 17 17
Simon Wakefield 0.01% 10000 46 28
Stephen Dodd 0.01% 10000 751 60
Stephen Leaney 0.00% 10000 46
Steve Webster 1.02% 98 67 1
Thomas Gogele 1.04% 96 34 5
Thomas Levet 0.00% 10000 751 48
Van Phillips 0.36% 278 81 48

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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