Simulation Results: Costa Navarino Legends Tour Trophy
| Player |
Win % |
TT Odds |
Best Odds |
Kelly |
Result |
P/L |
E/W Play |
| Adilson Da Silva |
2.05% |
49 |
34 |
|
16 |
|
|
| Alastair Forsyth |
1.21% |
83 |
67 |
|
26 |
|
|
| Andrew Marshall |
3.99% |
25 |
19 |
|
7 |
|
|
| Anthony Grenier |
1.85% |
54 |
41 |
|
26 |
|
|
| Anthony Wall |
1.40% |
71 |
51 |
|
43 |
|
|
| Cameron Clark |
0.00% |
10000 |
501 |
|
57 |
|
|
| Clark Dennis |
1.43% |
70 |
67 |
|
3 |
|
|
| Colin Montgomerie |
3.43% |
29 |
15 |
|
35 |
|
|
| Craig Farrelly |
0.44% |
227 |
67 |
|
37 |
|
|
| David Drysdale |
1.69% |
59 |
36 |
|
2 |
|
|
| Doug Mcguigan |
1.39% |
72 |
51 |
|
3 |
|
|
| Emanuele Canonica |
0.51% |
196 |
126 |
|
37 |
|
|
| Felipe Aguilar |
0.48% |
208 |
151 |
|
7 |
|
|
| Gary Orr |
0.25% |
400 |
201 |
|
16 |
|
|
| Greg Owen |
9.34% |
11 |
8.5 |
|
11 |
|
|
| Greig Hutcheon |
0.45% |
222 |
251 |
0.10% |
50 |
-0.1 |
Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| Henrik Engdahl |
0.00% |
10000 |
1001 |
|
52 |
|
|
| Ian Woosnam |
0.01% |
10000 |
501 |
|
59 |
|
|
| James Kingston |
2.64% |
38 |
21 |
|
22 |
|
|
| Jamie Donaldson |
14.52% |
6.9 |
8.5 |
3.10% |
30 |
-3.1 |
Boyle Sports: 7/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| Jarmo Sandelin |
0.02% |
5000 |
301 |
|
26 |
|
|
| Jean Hugo |
11.05% |
9 |
13 |
3.60% |
11 |
-3.6 |
Boyle Sports: 12/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| Jean-Francois Remesy |
0.14% |
714 |
276 |
|
22 |
|
|
| Jeev Milkha Singh |
0.72% |
139 |
41 |
|
22 |
|
|
| Joakim Haeggman |
1.76% |
57 |
36 |
|
3 |
|
|
| Johan Edfors |
2.12% |
47 |
34 |
|
30 |
|
|
| Keith Horne |
3.19% |
31 |
23 |
|
54 |
|
|
| Lionel Alexandre |
0.19% |
526 |
101 |
|
16 |
|
|
| Maarten Lafeber |
1.64% |
61 |
67 |
0.10% |
26 |
-0.1 |
Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| Malcolm Mackenzie |
0.00% |
10000 |
1501 |
|
54 |
|
|
| Mark Mouland |
0.01% |
10000 |
751 |
|
7 |
|
|
| Markus Brier |
0.28% |
357 |
151 |
|
11 |
|
|
| Matthew Cort |
2.77% |
36 |
29 |
|
16 |
|
|
| Michael Campbell |
0.14% |
714 |
201 |
|
16 |
|
|
| Michael Jonzon |
0.26% |
385 |
71 |
|
25 |
|
|
| Miguel Angel Martin |
0.09% |
1111 |
301 |
|
44 |
|
|
| Mikael Lundberg |
2.15% |
47 |
26 |
|
16 |
|
|
| Niclas Fasth |
0.02% |
5000 |
401 |
|
59 |
|
|
| Patrik Sjoland |
0.30% |
333 |
161 |
|
44 |
|
|
| Paul Lawrie |
1.24% |
81 |
34 |
|
30 |
|
|
| Paul Streeter |
0.01% |
10000 |
501 |
|
44 |
|
|
| Peter Baker |
11.31% |
8.8 |
9.5 |
0.90% |
3 |
0.27 |
BetGoodwin: 8/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| Peter Fowler |
0.00% |
10000 |
351 |
|
54 |
|
|
| Philip Golding |
0.10% |
1000 |
501 |
|
30 |
|
|
| Phillip Archer |
0.14% |
714 |
201 |
|
44 |
|
|
| Phillip Price |
0.28% |
357 |
176 |
|
35 |
|
|
| Raymond Russell |
0.00% |
10000 |
1251 |
|
41 |
|
|
| Robert Coles |
0.31% |
323 |
101 |
|
30 |
|
|
| Santiago Luna |
0.02% |
5000 |
401 |
|
52 |
|
|
| Scott Drummond |
0.11% |
909 |
251 |
|
44 |
|
|
| Shinichi Yokota |
0.05% |
2000 |
276 |
|
42 |
|
|
| Simon Griffiths |
0.61% |
164 |
51 |
|
1 |
|
|
| Simon Khan |
0.85% |
118 |
81 |
|
11 |
|
|
| Soren Hansen |
0.03% |
3333 |
201 |
|
57 |
|
|
| Stephen Dodd |
0.04% |
2500 |
401 |
|
37 |
|
|
| Stephen Gallacher |
7.67% |
13 |
14 |
0.60% |
7 |
-0.6 |
Boyle Sports: 12/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| Steve Webster |
0.28% |
357 |
81 |
|
44 |
|
|
| Thomas Gogele |
2.79% |
36 |
23 |
|
37 |
|
|
| Thomas Levet |
0.01% |
10000 |
501 |
|
50 |
|
|
| Van Phillips |
0.22% |
455 |
71 |
|
11 |
|
|
| Player |
Win % |
TT Odds |
Best Odds |
Kelly |
Result |
P/L |
E/W Play |
| WIN: Jean Hugo |
11.05% |
9 |
13 |
3.60% |
11 |
-2 |
Boyle Sports: 12/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| WIN: Jamie Donaldson |
14.52% |
6.9 |
8.5 |
3.10% |
30 |
-2 |
Boyle Sports: 7/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| WIN: Peter Baker |
11.31% |
8.8 |
9.5 |
0.90% |
3 |
0.6 |
BetGoodwin: 8/1, 6pl, 1/5 |
| FRL: |
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| FRL: |
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| FRL: |
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| FRL: |
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| FRL: |
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| FRL: |
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The data in the above table is as follows:
- Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
- TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
- TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
- Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
- Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
- Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
- P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
- E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes
The
Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.
The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution.
This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.
To determine the number of replications
R, this is typically set at 10 /
e2, where
e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure).
With 100,000 replications,
e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.
This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.
While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.
TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives'
here.
Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available
here.
