Simulation Results: Costa Navarino Legends Tour Trophy

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva 7.32% 14 10 24
Andrew Marshall 4.26% 23 29 0.80% 26 -0.8 Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Oldcorn 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 50 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Raitt 0.72% 139 141 44
Anthony Wall 0.00% 10000 46 6
Ariel Canete 0.20% 500 401 26
Bo Van Pelt 3.69% 27 14 4
Brian Davis 2.85% 35 36 0.10% 44 -0.1 Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Carl Suneson 0.16% 625 301 57
Christian Cevaer 0.10% 1000 1251 53
Clark Dennis 1.55% 65 41 17
Craig Farrelly 0.53% 189 251 0.10% 50 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
David Drysdale 5.38% 19 11 17
David Park 0.02% 5000 501 37
David Shacklady 0.11% 909 251 44
Emanuele Canonica 1.75% 57 46 35
Euan Mcintosh 0.45% 222 126 14
Gary Evans 0.15% 667 276 24
Gary Orr 0.79% 127 67 17
Greg Owen 6.66% 15 12 10
Greig Hutcheon 1.35% 74 76 17
Henrik Engdahl 0.02% 5000 751 56
James Kingston 3.19% 31 15 2
Jarmo Sandelin 0.62% 161 126 35
Jean-Francois Remesy 0.48% 208 201 17
Joakim Haeggman 2.71% 37 46 0.50% 6 -0.5 Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jonathan Lomas 0.00% 10000 1501 41
Jose Coceres 0.06% 1667 401 60
Lionel Alexandre 1.24% 81 46 44
Maarten Lafeber 0.03% 3333 251 6
Marc Farry 0.02% 5000 1501 58
Mark Mouland 0.01% 10000 1501 41
Markus Brier 0.59% 169 141 30
Matthew Cort 2.36% 42 34 14
Michael Campbell 0.51% 196 276 0.10% 14 -0.1 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Jonzon 0.75% 133 81 53
Michael Long 0.31% 323 251 50
Mikael Lundberg 4.80% 21 21 33
Niclas Fasth 0.10% 1000 601 43
Patrik Sjoland 1.45% 69 81 0.20% 26 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Paul Eales 0.16% 625 301 55
Paul Lawrie 2.88% 35 31 17
Peter Baker 6.77% 15 10 1
Philip Golding 0.40% 250 251 6
Phillip Archer 2.33% 43 46 0.20% 44 -0.2 VBet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Phillip Price 1.68% 60 67 0.20% 37 -0.2 Boyle Sports: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Raymond Russell 0.08% 1250 1501 33
Robert Coles 2.18% 46 34 10
Roger Chapman 0.06% 1667 751
Santiago Luna 0.14% 714 401 58
Scott Drummond 0.33% 303 401 0.10% 32 -0.1 QuinnBet: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Hend 9.05% 11 7.5 10
Shinichi Yokota 0.07% 1429 401 26
Simon Griffiths 3.65% 27 17 10
Simon Khan 4.12% 24 21 17
Stephen Dodd 0.14% 714 401 37
Stephen Gallacher 5.64% 18 10.5 5
Steve Webster 0.26% 385 67 30
Thomas Gogele 1.89% 53 46 2
Van Phillips 0.74% 135 67 37

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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