Simulation Results: Senior British Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva 0.52% 192 176 100
Alex Cejka 3.08% 32 41 0.70% 14 -0.7 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anders Hansen 0.36% 278 151 100
Andre Bossert 0.01% 10000 1501 125
Andrew Marshall 0.28% 357 401 76
Angel Cabrera 1.95% 51 31 31
Anthony Wall 0.14% 714 251 61
Ariel Canete 0.06% 1667 1001 70
Arjun Atwal 0.25% 400 251 24
Bernhard Langer 2.55% 39 26 24
Billy Andrade 0.49% 204 226 75
Billy Mayfair 0.11% 909 501 69
Bo Van Pelt 0.61% 164 176 17
Bob Estes 0.36% 278 351 0.10% 40 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brad Adamonis 0.02% 5000 501 100
Bradley Dredge 0.73% 137 126 24
Brian Davis 0.09% 1111 501 100
Brian Gay 0.39% 256 401 0.10% 76 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryan Hoops 0.00% 10000 1501 76
Cameron Percy 2.11% 47 51 0.20% 5 0.9 William Hill: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Carl Suneson 0.00% 10000 2501 132
Carlos Balmaseda 0.00% 10000 1251 132
Chad Campbell 0.12% 833 401 51
Charlie Wi 0.44% 227 151 40
Chris Dimarco 0.08% 1250 601 94
Clark Dennis 0.13% 769 501 22
Colin Montgomerie 0.94% 106 126 0.10% 31 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Corey Pavin 0.03% 3333 1001 40
Darren Clarke 3.60% 28 36 0.80% 51 -0.8 Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
Darren Fichardt 3.67% 27 36 0.90% 17 -0.9 Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Bransdon 0.22% 455 301 132
David Drysdale 1.96% 51 71 0.60% 56 -0.6 Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
David Duval 0.08% 1250 301 76
David Howell 0.14% 714 141 110
Doug Barron 0.90% 111 71 100
Emanuele Canonica 0.19% 526 401 110
Ernie Els 4.67% 21 17 5
Euan Mcintosh 0.04% 2500 501 73
Felipe Aguilar 0.64% 156 151 125
Fred Funk 0.01% 10000 1501 91
Freddie Jacobson 2.38% 42 29 132
Gary Evans 0.01% 10000 1501 110
Gary Orr 0.11% 909 501 100
Gary Wolstenholme 0.00% 10000 1001 138
Gordon Burns 0.20% 500 601 94
Greg Chalmers 1.95% 51 76 0.60% 8 -0.6 Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Greg Owen 0.63% 159 101 61
Greig Hutcheon 0.28% 357 251 94
Hiroyuki Fujita 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 110 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
I.J. Jang 0.01% 10000 1001 100
Ian Woosnam 0.02% 5000 1001 70
J.J. Henry 0.52% 192 401 0.30% 31 -0.3 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Kingston 0.40% 250 126 56
Jarmo Sandelin 0.03% 3333 501 118
Jason Caron 2.58% 39 41 0.10% 40 -0.1 Star Sports: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeev Milkha Singh 0.32% 313 301 56
Jeff Maggert 0.14% 714 451 100
Jeff Sluman 0.08% 1250 501 128
Jeff Williams 0.00% 10000 1001 118
Jerry Kelly 2.43% 41 21 17
Joakim Haeggman 0.39% 256 301 0.10% 51 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joe Durant 0.25% 400 301 51
John Kennedy 0.00% 10000 501 141
John Rollins 0.23% 435 201 31
Jose Maria Olazabal 0.05% 2000 2501 118
Justin Leonard 1.10% 91 46 2
Jyoti Randhawa 0.01% 10000 1251 61
K.J. Choi 2.17% 46 51 0.20% 24 -0.2 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keith Horne 1.22% 82 56 14
Ken Duke 0.59% 169 601 0.40% 76 -0.4 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ken Tanigawa 0.50% 200 276 0.10% 47 -0.1 PaddyPower: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kevin Sutherland 1.53% 65 71 0.10% 8 -0.1 Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lionel Alexandre 0.03% 3333 501 110
Maarten Lafeber 0.10% 1000 501 47
Mario Tiziani 0.45% 222 226 76
Mark Brown 0.82% 122 151 0.20% 47 -0.2 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mark Hensby 0.72% 139 56 24
Mark Wilson 0.43% 233 351 0.10% 61 -0.1 Unibet: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Markus Brier 0.09% 1111 751 76
Matt Gogel 0.99% 101 226 0.50% 40 -0.5 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthew Cort 0.69% 145 201 0.20% 51 -0.2 Betfred: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Campbell 0.02% 5000 1001 110
Michael Jonzon 0.02% 5000 1001 130
Michael Long 0.02% 5000 2001 91
Michael Wright 0.52% 192 41 17
Miguel Angel Jimenez 4.27% 23 12 24
Miguel Angel Martin 0.04% 2500 601 94
Mikael Lundberg 0.39% 256 301 0.10% 61 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Neil Rowlands 0.00% 10000 1501
Niclas Fasth 0.00% 10000 2001 118
Nobuhiro Masuda 0.01% 10000 501
Padraig Harrington 5.23% 19 10 1
Patrik Sjoland 0.11% 909 501 118
Paul Broadhurst 0.64% 156 101 94
Paul Goydos 1.56% 64 151 0.90% 40 -0.9 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Paul Lawrie 0.37% 270 201 14
Paul Mcginley 0.01% 10000 501 76
Paul Smith 0.00% 10000 1001 138
Paul Stankowski 0.45% 222 151 56
Paul Streeter 0.04% 2500 1001 138
Peter Baker 1.18% 85 81 50
Philip Golding 0.03% 3333 1501 130
Phillip Archer 0.08% 1250 301 76
Phillip Price 0.13% 769 501 56
Rafael Benitez 0.00% 10000 501 118
Retief Goosen 1.50% 67 34 31
Ricardo Gonzalez 0.83% 120 71 24
Rich Beem 0.00% 10000 1001 132
Richard Green 1.65% 61 36 12
Richard Warburton 0.00% 10000 501 132
Rob Labritz 0.20% 500 276 91
Robert Coles 0.21% 476 101 70
Robert Karlsson 0.77% 130 111 100
Rod Pampling 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 76 -0.1 PaddyPower: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rodrigo Lacerda Soares 0.00% 10000 1251 125
Ryan Dreyer 0.00% 10000 1001 141
Scott Drummond 0.03% 3333 751 76
Scott Dunlap 0.08% 1250 1001 76
Scott Hend 1.78% 56 46 4
Scott Mccarron 0.27% 370 401 76
Shane Bertsch 0.19% 526 276 31
Shaun Micheel 0.06% 1667 751 110
Shinichi Yokota 0.05% 2000 751 94
Simon Griffiths 0.62% 161 71 17
Simon Khan 0.33% 303 251 76
Soren Kjeldsen 2.39% 42 13 76
Stephen Ames 1.63% 61 81 0.40% 31 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stephen Dodd 0.02% 5000 1001 110
Stephen Gallacher 1.56% 64 91 0.50% 12 -0.5 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steve Allan 0.64% 156 51 8
Steve Flesch 1.28% 78 67 61
Steve Webster 0.01% 10000 1001 22
Steven Alker 5.04% 20 10 7
Stuart Appleby 0.29% 345 301 61
Tag Ridings 0.60% 167 201 0.10% 40 -0.1 PaddyPower: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Thomas Bjorn 2.31% 43 21 2
Thomas Gogele 0.12% 833 351 73
Thomas Levet 0.01% 10000 1501 118
Tim O'Neal 0.38% 263 201 31
Tim Petrovic 0.49% 204 101 31
Tom Kalinowski 0.00% 10000 1001 128
Tom Pernice 0.05% 2000 1001 61
Van Phillips 0.10% 1000 251 100
Y.E. Yang 2.18% 46 41 11

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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