Simulation Results: Barbados Legends

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva	1.49%	67	29		40
Alastair Forsyth	0.72%	139	81		14
Andrew Marshall	5.21%	19	17		14
Anthony Grenier	0.15%	667	151		25
Anthony Wall	0.67%	149	51		27
Brian Davis	0.06%	1667	276		14
Cameron Clark	0.00%	10000	401		51
Clark Dennis	0.09%	1111	176		10
Craig Farrelly	0.35%	286	51		20
Darren Fichardt	16.15%	6.2	12	8.50%	8	-8.5	Boyle Sports: 11/1, 6pl, 1/5
David Drysdale	1.56%	64	56		6
David Park	0.01%	10000	751		14
Emanuele Canonica	0.66%	152	151		27
Felipe Aguilar	0.16%	625	81		31
Gary Murphy	0.01%	10000	601		60
Greg Owen	6.01%	17	13		1
Greig Hutcheon	0.26%	385	251		34
Henrik Stenson	10.14%	9.9	6.5		20
Ian Woosnam	0.01%	10000	351		49
James Kingston	1.60%	63	36		6
Jamie Donaldson	11.19%	8.9	11	2.30%	3	1.725	Bet365: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jarmo Sandelin	0.04%	2500	251		57
Jean Hugo	4.07%	25	17		12
Joakim Haeggman	0.88%	114	46		34
Johan Edfors	1.05%	95	51		4
Keith Horne	4.48%	22	19		14
Lionel Alexandre	0.32%	313	86		32
Maarten Lafeber	0.34%	294	101		20
Malcolm Mackenzie	0.00%	10000	1501		45
Marc Farry	0.00%	10000	1001		51
Mark Mouland	0.00%	10000	401		45
Markus Brier	0.43%	233	176		34
Matthew Cort	3.05%	33	29		34
Michael Campbell	0.14%	714	181		27
Michael Jonzon	0.37%	270	61		34
Miguel Angel Martin	0.04%	2500	301		40
Mikael Lundberg	1.62%	62	46		12
Niclas Fasth	0.00%	10000	1251		20
Patrik Sjoland	0.18%	556	126		40
Paul Lawrie	0.89%	112	36		40
Paul Streeter	0.06%	1667	351		58
Peter Baker	7.80%	13	15	1.20%	10	-1.2	Spreadex: 14/1, 5pl, 1/5
Peter Fowler	0.01%	10000	401		56
Philip Golding	0.01%	10000	1001		27
Phillip Archer	0.11%	909	176		44
Phillip Price	0.28%	357	176		32
Raymond Russell	0.00%	10000	1001		51
Robert Coles	0.27%	370	101		51
Santiago Luna	0.00%	10000	501		20
Scott Drummond	0.06%	1667	226		45
Scott Hend	10.95%	9.1	6.5		2
Simon Griffiths	0.57%	175	51		25
Simon Hurd	0.00%	10000	401		58
Simon Khan	0.62%	161	101		14
Soren Hansen	0.07%	1429	126		49
Stephen Dodd	0.01%	10000	351		51
Stephen Gallacher	2.12%	47	17		4
Thomas Gogele	2.31%	43	41		8
Thomas Levet	0.00%	10000	401		45
Van Phillips	0.36%	278	101		8

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva	2.22%	45	23		19
Alastair Forsyth	1.58%	63	56		12
Andrew Marshall	4.31%	23	19		24
Anthony Grenier	0.72%	139	67		24
Anthony Wall	1.56%	64	36		19
Brian Davis	0.52%	192	176		6
Cameron Clark	0.10%	1000	176		24
Clark Dennis	0.57%	175	71		2
Craig Farrelly	1.03%	97	31		6
Darren Fichardt	8.66%	12	13	1.00%	19	-1	VBet: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Drysdale	2.34%	43	41		19
David Park	0.25%	400	226		40
Emanuele Canonica	1.50%	67	76	0.20%	40	-0.2	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Felipe Aguilar	0.74%	135	56		55
Gary Murphy	0.20%	500	226		58
Greg Owen	4.74%	21	12		2
Greig Hutcheon	0.87%	115	101		40
Henrik Stenson	6.47%	15	9		32
Ian Woosnam	0.16%	625	176		46
James Kingston	2.22%	45	26		12
Jamie Donaldson	6.89%	15	15	0.20%	2	0.25	Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jarmo Sandelin	0.38%	263	101		32
Jean Hugo	3.83%	26	19		12
Joakim Haeggman	1.73%	58	31		32
Johan Edfors	1.95%	51	36		10
Keith Horne	4.02%	25	19		6
Lionel Alexandre	1.10%	91	56		12
Maarten Lafeber	1.15%	87	56		24
Malcolm Mackenzie	0.05%	2000	301		46
Marc Farry	0.02%	5000	351		32
Mark Mouland	0.06%	1667	251		46
Markus Brier	1.13%	88	76		40
Matthew Cort	3.31%	30	23		24
Michael Campbell	0.67%	149	76		12
Michael Jonzon	1.15%	87	34		12
Miguel Angel Martin	0.39%	256	141		24
Mikael Lundberg	2.39%	42	29		19
Niclas Fasth	0.10%	1000	301		46
Patrik Sjoland	0.75%	133	67		46
Paul Lawrie	1.78%	56	26		46
Paul Streeter	0.42%	238	176		58
Peter Baker	5.49%	18	19	0.20%	19	-0.2	VBet: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Fowler	0.13%	769	201		46
Philip Golding	0.18%	556	251		24
Phillip Archer	0.60%	167	76		55
Phillip Price	0.99%	101	76		32
Raymond Russell	0.10%	1000	226		32
Robert Coles	0.94%	106	56		32
Santiago Luna	0.09%	1111	251		12
Scott Drummond	0.42%	238	81		40
Scott Hend	6.76%	15	10		2
Simon Griffiths	1.45%	69	34		24
Simon Hurd	0.03%	3333	176		60
Simon Khan	1.42%	70	61		40
Soren Hansen	0.55%	182	67		46
Stephen Dodd	0.22%	455	176		55
Stephen Gallacher	2.67%	37	19		6
Thomas Gogele	2.75%	36	31		10
Thomas Levet	0.11%	909	151		46
Van Phillips	1.10%	91	56		1

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Darren Fichardt	16.15%	6.2	12	8.50%	8	-2	Boyle Sports: 11/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Jamie Donaldson	11.19%	8.9	11	2.30%	3	1.5	Bet365: 10/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Peter Baker	7.80%	13	15	1.20%	10	-2	Spreadex: 14/1, 5pl, 1/5
FRL: Darren Fichardt	8.66%	12	13	1.00%	19	-1	VBet: 12/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Jamie Donaldson	6.89%	15	15	0.20%	2	1.25	Bet365: 14/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Peter Baker	5.49%	18	19	0.20%	19	-1	VBet: 18/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Emanuele Canonica	1.50%	67	76	0.20%	40	-1	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.