Simulation Results: Barbados Legends

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adilson Da Silva 5.55% 18 12 15
Andrew Marshall 3.69% 27 26 7
Andrew Mclardy 0.69% 145 41 41
Andrew Raitt 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 19 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/5
Ariel Canete 0.67% 149 251 0.30% 47 -0.3 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bradley Dredge 2.85% 35 19 7
Carl Suneson 0.36% 278 351 0.10% 29 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 5pl, 1/5
Carlos Balmaseda 0.39% 256 501 0.20% 25 -0.2 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christian Cevaer 0.20% 500 1251 0.10% 41 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Clark Dennis 1.45% 69 41 50
Craig Farrelly 0.37% 270 401 0.10% 15 -0.1 Skybet: 400/1, 5pl, 1/5
David Drysdale 2.72% 37 21 3
David Shacklady 0.23% 435 176 57
Emanuele Canonica 1.58% 63 46 29
Euan Mcintosh 1.20% 83 91 0.10% 25 -0.1 Spreadex: 90/1, 5pl, 1/5
Gary Evans 0.45% 222 226 51
Greg Owen 3.05% 33 23 2
Greig Hutcheon 2.34% 43 51 0.40% 24 -0.4 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ian Woosnam 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 29 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 5pl, 1/5
James Kingston 2.29% 44 29 5
Jarmo Sandelin 0.44% 227 176 17
Jean Van De Velde 0.10% 1000 501 53
Joakim Haeggman 2.98% 34 34 19
Jonathan Lomas 0.03% 3333 1501 58
Jose Coceres 0.26% 385 351 54
Keith Horne 5.19% 19 19 9
Lionel Alexandre 1.03% 97 81 3
Malcolm Mackenzie 0.06% 1667 1001 47
Marc Farry 0.08% 1250 1501 54
Mark Mouland 0.04% 2500 1501 59
Markus Brier 0.85% 118 161 0.20% 25 -0.2 QuinnBet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Cort 8.49% 12 29 5.20% 29 -5.2 Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Campbell 0.68% 147 201 0.20% 17 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michael Jonzon 0.96% 104 101 36
Michael Long 0.74% 135 176 0.20% 54 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 5pl, 1/5
Miguel Angel Martin 0.59% 169 176 44
Mikael Lundberg 4.15% 24 21 19
Niclas Fasth 0.14% 714 501 44
Patrik Sjoland 1.93% 52 51 51
Paul Mcginley 0.31% 323 176 25
Paul Streeter 0.71% 141 501 0.50% 12 -0.5 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Peter Baker 4.16% 24 10 12
Philip Golding 0.58% 172 251 0.20% 36 -0.2 Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/5
Phillip Archer 1.18% 85 76 36
Phillip Price 2.07% 48 56 0.30% 29 -0.3 Spreadex: 55/1, 5pl, 1/5
Robert Coles 1.17% 85 56 9
Santiago Luna 0.08% 1250 1001 12
Scott Drummond 0.32% 313 351 40
Scott Hend 9.35% 11 10 1
Sean Whiffin 0.09% 1111 1001 36
Shaun Micheel 2.06% 49 46 29
Shinichi Yokota 0.84% 119 201 0.30% 47 -0.3 Skybet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/5
Simon Griffiths 3.79% 26 13 60
Simon Khan 1.11% 90 41 5
Stephen Dodd 0.38% 263 301 44
Stephen Gallacher 8.93% 11 15 2.40% 11 -2.4 Boyle Sports: 14/1, 6pl, 1/5
Steve Webster 0.03% 3333 41 41
Thomas Gogele 2.53% 40 29 19
Thomas Levet 0.24% 417 401 35
Van Phillips 0.51% 196 76 19

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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