Simulation Results: Le Vaudreuil Golf Challenge

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Blomme	1.06%	94	111	0.20%	55	-0.2	Spreadex: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Wallin	1.54%	65	34		8
Alexander Knappe	0.69%	145	121		35
Alexis Leray	0.19%	526	251		128
Alfie Plant	0.85%	118	91		3
Algot Kleen	0.30%	333	141		29
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.17%	588	451		75
Andoni Etchenique	0.24%	417	501		55
Andrew Wilson	1.21%	83	56		75
Antoine Auboin	0.00%	10000	3001		86
Anton Albers	0.94%	106	111		143
Antonio Hortal	0.00%	10000	1501		100
Asier Aguirre	0.07%	1429	751		55
Augustin Barbe	0.00%	10000	1501		67
Austin Bautista	0.71%	141	51		55
Aymeric Laussot	0.16%	625	501		29
Baard Skogen	0.78%	128	111		35
Bailey Gill	0.09%	1111	1501		100
Barclay Brown	0.74%	135	61		122
Bastien Amat	0.16%	625	401		86
Benjamin Hebert	0.71%	141	61		12
Benjamin Kedochim	0.11%	909	451		22
Benjamin Rusch	0.34%	294	251		16
Bjorn Akesson	0.83%	120	81		44
Borja Virto	1.00%	100	81		75
Bradley Bawden	0.53%	189	151		100
Bryce Easton	1.43%	70	41		16
Caleb Surratt	2.73%	37	23
Callum Farr	0.68%	147	126		22
Canon Claycomb	0.43%	233	201		72
Charles Huntzinger	1.87%	53	61	0.20%	75	-0.2	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlie Forster	0.81%	123	91		8
Chase Hanna	0.74%	135	91		74
Chris Wood	0.87%	115	51		29
Christian Braunig	0.22%	455	226		135
Christofer Blomstrand	1.46%	68	51		29
Clement Guichard	0.10%	1000	501		70
Clement Sordet	2.03%	49	34		41
Collin Adams	0.16%	625	1501	0.10%	86	-0.1	Betway: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Conor Purcell	0.39%	256	201		35
Corey Shaun	0.13%	769	751		110
Damien Perrier	0.09%	1111	401		63
Dan Erickson	0.86%	116	111		100
David Horsey	1.49%	67	36		86
Deon Germishuys	1.33%	75	61		100
Diego Lourenco	0.00%	10000	601		55
Dorian Fournier	0.00%	10000	2001		149
Edgar Catherine	0.04%	2500	1501		110
Frank Kennedy	0.80%	125	131		75
Frederik Kjettrup	0.55%	182	86		110
Gary Stal	0.00%	10000	1001		110
Gavin Green	0.10%	1000	401		155
George Bloor	0.47%	213	151		86
Gregor Graham	0.33%	303	151		50
Gregory Bourdy	0.08%	1250	601		135
Hamish Brown	2.67%	37	23		2
Haraldur Magnus	0.31%	323	401	0.10%	122	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hurly Long	0.14%	714	401		35
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.12%	833	601		86
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa	0.33%	303	126		3
James Meyer De Beco	0.70%	143	126		8
James Sugrue	0.06%	1667	751		149
Jamie Rutherford	1.74%	57	51		44
Jan Schneider	0.29%	345	226		16
Jannik De Bruyn	1.30%	77	51		90
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.25%	400	401		16
Javier Calles Roman	0.12%	833	301		100
Jean Bekirian	0.65%	154	91		128
Jerry Ji	0.05%	2000	1001		86
Jhared Hack	3.41%	29	41	1.00%	44	-1	Betway: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joel Moscatel	0.61%	164	226	0.20%	35	-0.2	Spreadex: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Gough	1.29%	78	71		22
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.63%	159	141		122
Joseba Torres	1.18%	85	101	0.20%	68	-0.2	Boyle Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jovan Rebula	0.42%	238	176		50
Juan Salama Monsalve	0.15%	667	501		75
Julian Perico	0.74%	135	61		22
Julien Brun	0.76%	132	61		63
Julien Quesne	0.66%	152	126		75
Julien Sale	1.51%	66	46		1
Justin Harding	0.93%	108	76		149
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.05%	2000	751		75
Kristian Krogh Johannessen	2.50%	40	26		3
Lars Van Der Vight	1.19%	84	61		128
Lars Van Meijel	0.62%	161	71		110
Leon Acikalin	0.00%	10000	3001		141
Liam Johnston	0.13%	769	601		141
Liam Nolan	1.18%	85	51		68
Linus Lang	0.07%	1429	501		128
Lorenzo Scalise	1.75%	57	46		3
Louis Albertse	1.23%	81	71		73
Louis Darthenay	0.05%	2000	1001		86
Lucas Abrial	0.00%	10000	2501		63
Lucas Poupaert	0.00%	10000	2001		70
Lucas Vacarisas	0.14%	714	401		122
Luis Masaveu	1.39%	72	36		100
Lukas Nemecz	0.64%	156	91		22
M.J. Viljoen	0.45%	222	201		3
Manuel Ballesteros	0.00%	10000
Marc Hammer	0.94%	106	101		14
Marc Warren	1.11%	90	67		41
Mark Power	0.74%	135	101		86
Martin Leth Simonsen	0.89%	112	76		35
Martin Vorster	0.85%	118	86		22
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon	0.35%	286	201		110
Matias Honkala	0.03%	3333	601		50
Matteo Cristoni	1.30%	77	61		110
Matthis Besard	0.94%	106	67		143
Matthis Lefevre	0.00%	10000	501		154
Max Kennedy	0.46%	217	126		122
Maxence Giboudot	1.61%	62	41		16
Maxime Legros	0.28%	357	81		29
Maxime Radureau	0.00%	10000	1501		143
Michael Feuerstein	0.05%	2000	751		143
Michael Hirmer	0.26%	385	401		22
Nathan Legendre	0.13%	769	401		128
Nick Bachem	0.09%	1111	601		147
Nick Carlson	0.94%	106	126	0.10%			Boyle Sports: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Noa Auch Roy	0.00%	10000	601		100
Octave Bailo	0.01%	10000	1501		147
Pablo Ereno	3.75%	27	23		12
Palmer Jackson	0.24%	417	401		110
Pedro Figueiredo	2.64%	38	34		8
Pedro Lencart Silva	0.05%	2000	1501		135
Philipp Katich	0.12%	833	601		135
Pierre Pineau	0.58%	172	141		16
Pierre Viallaneix	0.61%	164	101		29
Quinnton Croker	0.13%	769	501		128
Rayan Ahmed	0.00%	10000	1501		149
Robert Foley	0.02%	5000	1501		110
Robin Petersson	0.27%	370	276		110
Robin Roussel	0.03%	3333	1001		100
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.71%	141	101		41
Romain Wattel	0.18%	556	351		55
Ronan Kleu	0.45%	222	201		110
Ronan Mullarney	0.13%	769	501		50
Rory Franssen	0.09%	1111	1001		50
Ryan Lumsden	0.88%	114	126	0.10%	55	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Van Velzen	0.83%	120	81		135
Sam Jones	0.38%	263	131		44
Santiago Tarrio	1.15%	87	51		86
Sebastian Friedrichsen	1.06%	94	81		86
Sebastien Gros	0.04%	2500	1001		86
Steven Brown	0.40%	250	251		122
Tadeas Tetak	1.70%	59	41		135
Taylor Carter	0.11%	909	751		75
Tom Lewis	1.61%	62	67	0.10%	75	-0.1	Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tomas Gouveia	0.44%	227	201		55
Victor Bjorlow	0.12%	833	501		44
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.33%	303	351		86
Wil Besseling	0.73%	137	151	0.10%	86	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wilco Nienaber	1.00%	100	81		63
Will Enefer	1.72%	58	41		14
Will Porter	0.17%	588	276		100
Wouter De Vries	0.32%	313	201		110
Xavier Poncelet	0.02%	5000	1001		153

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Blomme	0.84%	119	76		113
Adam Wallin	1.48%	68	41		48
Alexander Knappe	0.88%	114	81		1
Alexis Leray	0.45%	222	111		113
Alfie Plant	1.07%	93	81		10
Algot Kleen	0.62%	161	81		48
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.44%	227	176		24
Andoni Etchenique	0.35%	286	176		10
Andrew Wilson	1.27%	79	51		24
Antoine Auboin	0.03%	3333	451		95
Anton Albers	0.76%	132	81		147
Antonio Hortal	0.05%	2000	301		48
Asier Aguirre	0.25%	400	181		32
Augustin Barbe	0.04%	2500	301		69
Austin Bautista	0.61%	164	51		10
Aymeric Laussot	0.39%	256	176		32
Baard Skogen	0.68%	147	81		32
Bailey Gill	0.31%	323	301		113
Barclay Brown	0.68%	147	51		113
Bastien Amat	0.40%	250	161		69
Benjamin Hebert	0.62%	161	61		48
Benjamin Kedochim	0.36%	278	176		69
Benjamin Rusch	0.45%	222	111		32
Bjorn Akesson	0.72%	139	76		48
Borja Virto	0.76%	132	56		129
Bradley Bawden	0.54%	185	111		113
Bryce Easton	1.45%	69	51		24
Callum Farr	0.93%	108	81		10
Canon Claycomb	0.48%	208	111		32
Charles Huntzinger	1.12%	89	61		48
Charlie Forster	0.75%	133	71		48
Chase Hanna	0.60%	167	76		5
Chris Wood	0.75%	133	56		48
Christian Braunig	0.31%	323	111		142
Christofer Blomstrand	0.99%	101	51		32
Clement Guichard	0.20%	500	161		69
Clement Sordet	1.86%	54	36		5
Collin Adams	0.24%	417	301		48
Conor Purcell	0.70%	143	101		69
Corey Shaun	0.23%	435	226		129
Damien Perrier	0.34%	294	126		69
Dan Erickson	1.01%	99	81		10
David Horsey	1.47%	68	46		10
Deon Germishuys	1.39%	72	51		32
Diego Lourenco	0.02%	5000	181		95
Dorian Fournier	0.04%	2500	351		155
Edgar Catherine	0.18%	556	301		129
Frank Kennedy	1.07%	93	91		48
Frederik Kjettrup	0.78%	128	76		95
Gary Stal	0.04%	2500	276		32
Gavin Green	0.34%	294	161		69
George Bloor	0.45%	222	91		95
Gregor Graham	0.41%	244	111		32
Gregory Bourdy	0.15%	667	191		142
Hamish Brown	2.06%	49	36		1
Haraldur Magnus	0.56%	179	151		95
Hurly Long	0.23%	435	176		69
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.33%	303	191		129
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa	0.64%	156	91		10
James Meyer De Beco	0.97%	103	81		48
James Sugrue	0.13%	769	226		151
Jamie Rutherford	1.07%	93	51		113
Jan Schneider	0.60%	167	101		4
Jannik De Bruyn	0.91%	110	56		108
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.55%	182	176		48
Javier Calles Roman	0.33%	303	151		113
Jean Bekirian	0.90%	111	71		95
Jerry Ji	0.19%	526	276		48
Jhared Hack	1.71%	58	36		32
Joel Moscatel	0.57%	175	111		48
John Gough	0.90%	111	71		32
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.62%	161	81		113
Joseba Torres	1.26%	79	81		95
Jovan Rebula	0.51%	196	111		48
Juan Salama Monsalve	0.26%	385	181		32
Julian Perico	0.65%	154	56		5
Julien Brun	0.99%	101	56		10
Julien Quesne	0.65%	154	71		32
Julien Sale	1.48%	68	51		10
Justin Harding	0.81%	123	71		147
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.22%	455	191		48
Kristian Krogh Johannessen	1.42%	70	36		24
Lars Van Der Vight	1.31%	76	61		142
Lars Van Meijel	0.55%	182	71		129
Leon Acikalin	0.05%	2000	451		142
Liam Johnston	0.37%	270	176		69
Liam Nolan	1.33%	75	51		69
Linus Lang	0.23%	435	176		129
Lorenzo Scalise	1.64%	61	46		95
Louis Albertse	1.28%	78	51		69
Louis Darthenay	0.16%	625	276		113
Lucas Abrial	0.02%	5000	401		69
Lucas Poupaert	0.01%	10000	351		32
Lucas Vacarisas	0.39%	256	111		24
Luis Masaveu	1.47%	68	36		113
Lukas Nemecz	0.61%	164	76		95
M.J. Viljoen	0.72%	139	81		5
Manuel Ballesteros	0.04%	2500
Marc Hammer	1.11%	90	76		69
Marc Warren	1.20%	83	71		69
Mark Power	0.64%	156	81		95
Martin Leth Simonsen	1.08%	93	71		5
Martin Vorster	1.01%	99	71		1
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon	0.63%	159	81		32
Matias Honkala	0.13%	769	191		69
Matteo Cristoni	1.33%	75	56		129
Matthis Besard	0.79%	127	61		147
Matthis Lefevre	0.01%	10000	181		156
Max Kennedy	0.71%	141	81		69
Maxence Giboudot	1.15%	87	51		10
Maxime Legros	0.35%	286	76		69
Maxime Radureau	0.02%	5000	351		95
Michael Feuerstein	0.15%	667	226		152
Michael Hirmer	0.51%	196	176		10
Nathan Legendre	0.21%	476	126		129
Nick Bachem	0.30%	333	191		129
Nick Carlson	0.74%	135	81
Noa Auch Roy	0.03%	3333	191		142
Octave Bailo	0.06%	1667	301		152
Pablo Ereno	1.78%	56	34		95
Palmer Jackson	0.48%	208	151		113
Pedro Figueiredo	1.45%	69	36		69
Pedro Lencart Silva	0.11%	909	301		129
Philipp Katich	0.19%	526	191		129
Pierre Pineau	0.88%	114	76		10
Pierre Viallaneix	0.54%	185	71		48
Quinnton Croker	0.24%	417	176		113
Rayan Ahmed	0.01%	10000	301		147
Robert Foley	0.09%	1111	351		129
Robin Petersson	0.36%	278	111		69
Robin Roussel	0.14%	714	276		69
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.63%	159	81		95
Romain Wattel	0.29%	345	111		69
Ronan Kleu	0.75%	133	111		95
Ronan Mullarney	0.22%	455	181		10
Rory Franssen	0.28%	357	276		95
Ryan Lumsden	1.08%	93	91		24
Ryan Van Velzen	1.02%	98	76		113
Sam Hutsby	0.43%	233			129
Sam Jones	0.45%	222	91		113
Santiago Tarrio	0.89%	112	41		95
Sebastian Friedrichsen	1.16%	86	76		69
Sebastien Gros	0.21%	476	226		69
Steven Brown	0.69%	145	126		95
Tadeas Tetak	1.56%	64	51		69
Taylor Carter	0.20%	500	191		48
Tom Lewis	1.48%	68	71	0.10%	69	-0.1	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tomas Gouveia	0.50%	200	111		69
Victor Bjorlow	0.24%	417	181		48
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.58%	172	161		113
Wil Besseling	0.67%	149	111		48
Wilco Nienaber	1.20%	83	51		24
Will Enefer	1.14%	88	51		10
Will Porter	0.44%	227	126		32
Wouter De Vries	0.41%	244	111		48
Xavier Poncelet	0.07%	1429	226		152

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jhared Hack	3.41%	29	41	1.00%	44	-2	Betway: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Charles Huntzinger	1.87%	53	61	0.20%	75	-2	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Joseba Torres	1.18%	85	101	0.20%	68	-2	Boyle Sports: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Tom Lewis	1.48%	68	71	0.10%	69	-3	Bet365: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.