Simulation Results: Le Vaudreuil Golf Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 0.80% 125 67 106
Albin Bergstrom 0.49% 204 126 5
Alex Imbertie 0.00% 10000 1251 153
Alexander Settemsdal 0.13% 769 751 62
Alexandre D'Aurelle De Paladines 0.00% 10000 2001 120
Alfie Plant 1.34% 75 67 16
Andoni Etchenique 0.14% 714 501 66
Anthony Grenier 0.01% 10000 751 139
Antoine Pouguet 0.01% 10000 1001 40
Anton Albers 0.81% 123 126 29
Aydan Verdonk 0.01% 10000 2001 149
Aymeric Laussot 0.26% 385 301 40
Barclay Brown 0.06% 1667 501 133
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 1.76% 57 41 74
Ben Sigel 0.21% 476 501 85
Ben Stow 0.33% 303 251 106
Benjamin Kedochim 0.04% 2500 2501 135
Benjamin Rusch 0.66% 152 81 16
Borja Virto 2.30% 43 41 98
Bradley Bawden 0.10% 1000 751 106
Brandon Kewalramani 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 62 -0.1 QuinnBet: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Callan Barrow 0.40% 250 101 9
Calum Fyfe 0.98% 102 71 16
Chase Hanna 0.38% 263 176 106
Chris Paisley 0.29% 345 251 74
Christofer Blomstrand 0.89% 112 67 53
Christofer Rahm 0.36% 278 226 85
Christoffer Bring 2.90% 34 29 36
Claude Churchward 0.00% 10000 1251 120
Clement Charmasson 0.75% 133 126 9
Clement Guichard 0.11% 909 501 106
Daan Huizing 1.26% 79 67 74
Damien Perrier 0.27% 370 301 120
Daniel Young 1.90% 53 41 2
David Borda 0.24% 417 451 120
David Horsey 0.83% 120 67 1
David Law 2.31% 43 29 98
Denwit David Boriboonsub 0.50% 200 141 49
Dermot Mcelroy 0.21% 476 251 62
Eddie Pepperell 0.75% 133 67 7
Edgar Catherine 0.38% 263 751 0.20% 85 -0.2 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Euan Walker 2.59% 39 26 16
Felix Mory 1.63% 61 41 154
Franck Daux 0.10% 1000 501 106
Frank Kennedy 0.14% 714 451
Gabriel Morgan 0.22% 455 301 66
Gary King 0.06% 1667 1501 120
George Bloor 0.49% 204 151 120
Graeme Robertson 0.30% 333 251 120
Gregor Graham 0.13% 769 501 85
Gregory Bourdy 0.15% 667 251 74
Harvey Byers 0.00% 10000 2001 106
Hayden Hopewell 0.28% 357 251 135
Hugo Legeay-Gaucher 0.00% 10000 2501 98
Hugo Townsend 1.60% 63 51 74
Hurly Long 0.61% 164 176 49
Jack Davidson 1.42% 70 81 0.20% 85 -0.2 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jack Floydd 0.03% 3333 2001 141
Jack Mcdonald 1.67% 60 26
Jakub Hrinda 0.01% 10000 1251 85
James Allan 0.24% 417 301 2
James Meyer De Beco 0.18% 556 351 53
James Morrison 1.18% 85 67 65
James Ross 0.08% 1250 601 98
Jamie Rutherford 2.51% 40 29 145
Jens Fahrbring 0.83% 120 126 106
Jeppe Kristian Andersen 0.84% 119 81 32
Jesper Sandborg 0.38% 263 226 106
Jiri Zuska 0.19% 526 251 40
Joachim B. Hansen 0.01% 10000 2001 145
Joel Stalter 0.19% 526 301 53
John Gough 0.38% 263 151 16
Jonas Blixt 0.31% 323 201 137
Jonathan Caldwell 0.26% 385 251 74
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 1.20% 83 56 66
Joseba Torres 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 2 6.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joshua Berry 0.86% 116 51
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.13% 769 251 85
Jovan Rebula 0.98% 102 81 74
Juan Salama 0.01% 10000 1251 120
Jules Lavigne 0.00% 10000 2001 152
Julian Perico 0.68% 147 101 58
Julien Quesne 0.68% 147 151 13
Julien Sale 1.24% 81 51 66
Justin Walters 0.66% 152 101 66
Keenan Davidse 0.44% 227 176 60
Lars Van Meijel 0.96% 104 71 36
Lauri Ruuska 0.29% 345 201 139
Leon Acikalin 0.08% 1250 1001 145
Liam Nolan 0.82% 122 81 85
Lloyd Jefferson Go 0.09% 1111 401 60
Louis Bonte 0.01% 10000 1001 66
Lucas Vacarisas 1.55% 65 46 26
Luis Masaveu 1.59% 63 34 53
Lukas Nemecz 1.70% 59 36 32
Marius Cara 0.00% 10000 1501 137
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon 0.28% 357 176 46
Mathis Pansart 0.00% 10000 2001 120
Matt Oshrine 0.45% 222 176 133
Matt Sharpstene 0.07% 1429 1001 16
Matthew Cheung 0.98% 102 101 16
Matthis Besard 1.79% 56 46 98
Max Kennedy 2.41% 41 36 49
Maxence Giboudot 0.53% 189 101 46
Maxime Radureau 0.00% 10000 1251 120
Maximilian Schmitt 0.16% 625 1251 0.10% 49 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maximilian Steinlechner 1.21% 83 51 40
Michael Feuerstein 0.13% 769 501 40
Nathan Legendre 0.20% 500 401 74
Nick Carlson 2.00% 50 67 0.50% 7 -0.5 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicolas Calvet 0.00% 10000 1501 46
Nikhil Rama 0.29% 345 251 150
Noa Auch Roy 0.01% 10000 1001 106
Octave Bailo 0.00% 10000 751 74
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 2.68% 37 26 74
Oliver Bekker 0.54% 185 176 58
Oliver Farr 0.42% 238 176 11
Oliver Gillberg 0.46% 217 126 106
Palmer Jackson 0.67% 149 101 16
Pedro Figueiredo 0.56% 179 126 29
Pedro Lencart 0.02% 5000 1001 120
Per Langfors 1.57% 64 51 66
Peter Launer Baek 0.36% 278 151 120
Quim Vidal 1.10% 91 67 53
Robin Petersson 0.80% 125 101 85
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 2.99% 33 23 6
Rocco Repetto 0.85% 118 71 16
Romain Guillon 0.00% 10000 2001 106
Romain Lanteri 0.00% 10000 2001 150
Romain Wattel 0.44% 227 201 85
Ronan Kleu 0.41% 244 176 98
Ryan Evans 0.16% 625 601 85
Ryan Lumsden 0.49% 204 101 13
Sam Jones 0.38% 263 176 29
Sam Locke 0.08% 1250 751 141
Santiago Tarrio 2.38% 42 29 85
Saptak Talwar 0.29% 345 351 32
Sebastian Friedrichsen 1.52% 66 56 106
Sebastian Garcia 1.30% 77 81 0.10% 66 -0.1 QuinnBet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastien Gros 0.38% 263 176 106
Simon Zach 0.02% 5000 1251 141
Steven Brown 0.77% 130 176 0.20% 11 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stuart Manley 0.84% 119 126 36
Taichi Kho 0.91% 110 51 16
Tiger Christensen 0.59% 169 111 74
Tobias Jonsson 2.12% 47 29 36
Tom Lewis 0.93% 108 101 13
Tomas Gouveia 0.77% 130 126 85
Valentin Peugnet 0.00% 10000 1001 148
Vasco Alves 0.00% 10000 3001 98
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.35% 286 151 26
Victor Pastor 0.49% 204 151 141
Will Enefer 1.37% 73 51 98
Will Hopkins 0.14% 714 401 120
Wouter De Vries 0.62% 161 176 0.10% 32 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yente Van Doren 0.00% 10000 1001 40

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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