Simulation Results: UAE Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 1.83% 55 36 4
Ahmad Baig 0.32% 313 201 122
Ahmad Skaik 0.00% 10000 1501 69
Albert Boneta 1.14% 88 56 44
Albin Bergstrom 0.80% 125 201 0.30% 37 -0.3 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alexander George Frances 0.16% 625 151 73
Alexander Settemsdal 0.03% 3333 501 141
Aymeric Laussot 0.05% 2000 122
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 0.68% 147 91 64
Bastien Amat 0.07% 1429 201 73
Ben Sigel 0.01% 10000 1001 73
Benjamin Kedochim 0.01% 10000 1251 109
Bradley Bawden 0.16% 625 401 73
Brandon Kewalramani 0.01% 10000 601 122
Bryce Easton 2.24% 45 67 0.80% 92 -0.8 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Callan Barrow 0.23% 435 151 26
Callum Farr 1.41% 71 67 20
Cedric Gugler 0.03% 3333 501 92
Chase Hanna 0.47% 213 501 0.30% 15 -0.3 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Paisley 0.10% 1000 501 72
Christian Jacobsen 0.10% 1000 401 44
Christofer Blomstrand 0.23% 435 501 73
Christofer Rahm 0.11% 909 751 92
Christoffer Bring 1.25% 80 126 0.50% 12 -0.5 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Clement Charmasson 0.13% 769 501 26
Clement Sordet 1.62% 62 46 73
Craig Howie 0.36% 278 251 15
Curtis Knipes 0.00% 10000 501 37
Daan Huizing 1.62% 62 81 0.40% 122 -0.4 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Damien Perrier 0.03% 3333 301 109
Damien Scott 0.00% 10000 151
Dan Byrne 0.00% 10000 149
Dan Erickson 0.69% 145 126 3
Daniel Mulligan 0.00% 10000 1001 146
Danny List 0.99% 101 111 0.10% 96 -0.1 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Horsey 1.96% 51 67 0.50% 134 -0.5 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
David Law 2.99% 33 41 0.60% 73 -0.6 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Davis Bryant 2.30% 43 56 0.50% 26 -0.5 Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Denwit David Boriboonsub 0.43% 233 141 96
Dermot Mcelroy 0.17% 588 501 96
Dominic Foos 1.99% 50 101 1.00% 109 -1 QuinnBet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eddie Pepperell 4.12% 24 29 0.70% 73 -0.7 Bet365: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eduard Rousaud 0.08% 1250 501 65
Enrico Di Nitto 0.02% 5000 501 96
Felix Mory 2.36% 42 46 0.20% 44 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Filippo Celli 4.32% 23 34 1.40% 9 -1.4 Unibet: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Freddy Schott 2.32% 43 34 6
Gabriel Morgan 0.02% 5000 501 109
Garrick Porteous 0.30% 333 201 96
Gary King 0.01% 10000 1251 141
George Bloor 1.23% 81 67 26
George Coetzee 2.52% 40 26 55
Graeme Robertson 0.33% 303 126 122
Gregor Graham 0.09% 1111 501 109
Gregorio De Leo 3.53% 28 34 0.60% 37 -0.6 Ladbrokes: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hayden Hopewell 0.57% 175 101 50
Hurly Long 1.56% 64 126 0.80% 73 -0.8 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
J.C. Ritchie 3.33% 30 34 0.40% 2 1.12 Spreadex: 33/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jack Davidson 0.48% 208 201 73
Jackson Bell 0.00% 10000 141
Jaco Prinsloo 0.36% 278 301 15
James Meyer De Beco 0.01% 10000 301 20
James Morrison 0.91% 110 151 0.20% 96 -0.2 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jamie Rutherford 4.34% 23 23 122
Javier Barcos Garbayo 0.39% 256 151 73
Jean Bekirian 0.11% 909 201 26
Jens Fahrbring 1.32% 76 101 0.30% 44 -0.3 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.13% 769 601 50
Jesper Sandborg 0.63% 159 101 73
Joachim B. Hansen 0.00% 10000 1001 122
John Axelsen 0.49% 204 126 26
John Gough 0.11% 909 301 109
Jonathan Caldwell 0.50% 200 176 134
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 0.13% 769 251 73
Jonathan Selvaraj 0.00% 10000 2501 153
Joshua Berry 3.86% 26 23 26
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.06% 1667 126 50
Julian Perico 0.66% 152 301 0.30% 55 -0.3 Skybet: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Justin Harding 1.78% 56 81 0.60% 26 -0.6 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Khaled Attieh 0.00% 10000 1001 145
Lorenzo Scalise 0.37% 270 276 44
Louis Albertse 0.85% 118 176 0.30% 96 -0.3 Skybet: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mark Power 0.11% 909 301 6
Martin Simonsen 2.24% 45 71 0.80% 96 -0.8 Skybet: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Oshrine 0.08% 1250 301 149
Matt Sharpstene 0.13% 769 501 70
Matthis Besard 1.76% 57 51 37
Max Kennedy 0.82% 122 126 26
Maxence Giboudot 0.09% 1111 501 26
Maximilian Schmitt 0.64% 156 126 141
Maxwell Martin 0.01% 10000 751 134
Michael Feuerstein 0.04% 2500 601 73
Michele Ortolani 0.16% 625 351 109
Mikhail Pinto 0.00% 10000 155
Nathan Legendre 0.02% 5000 501 122
Nick Carlson 0.85% 118 176 0.30% 109 -0.3 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicolai Kristensen 0.69% 145 151 96
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 0.70% 143 111 4
Oliver Bekker 0.15% 667 176 60
Palmer Jackson 0.04% 2500 401 55
Pedro Figueiredo 3.32% 30 101 2.40% 6 -2.4 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Per Langfors 1.11% 90 81 15
Rashed Al Emadi 0.00% 10000 1501 154
Rayan Ahmed 0.02% 5000 1501 146
Renato Paratore 0.88% 114 81 1
Rhys Enoch 0.30% 333 301 65
Rikard Karlberg 0.11% 909 201 15
Robert Foley 0.01% 10000 751 55
Robin Petersson 0.13% 769 601 109
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 1.72% 58 67 0.20% 73 -0.2 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Evans 0.06% 1667 176 122
Ryan Lumsden 0.67% 149 126 96
Saleh Al Kaabi 0.00% 10000 5001 156
Sam Hutsby 0.36% 278 176 73
Sam Jones 1.07% 93 61 122
Sam Locke 0.01% 10000 601 109
Sam Mullane 0.00% 10000 1501 146
Sebastian Friedrichsen 1.29% 78 151 0.60% 9 -0.6 QuinnBet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Garcia 0.34% 294 251 44
Sebastien Gros 0.46% 217 176 73
Soren Broholt Lind 0.01% 10000 751 96
Soren Kjeldsen 1.54% 65 81 0.30% 50 -0.3 Unibet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Stefano Mazzoli 1.65% 61 51 9
Stuart Manley 0.32% 313 501 0.10% 37 -0.1 QuinnBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stuart Smith 0.00% 10000 1001 151
Tiger Christensen 0.12% 833 351 73
Tom Lewis 0.38% 263 126 55
Tomas Gouveia 1.58% 63 81 0.30% 67 -0.3 Unibet: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Victor Pastor 0.26% 385 251 26
Wil Besseling 1.38% 72 81 0.10% 60 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Enefer 0.55% 182 251 0.20% 70 -0.2 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Hopkins 1.00% 100 126 0.20% 20 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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