Simulation Results: Swiss Challenge

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Wallin	2.08%	48	23		46
Alessandro Noseda	0.01%	10000	1001		142
Alex Goff	1.45%	69	51		9
Alexander Amey	0.02%	5000	1001		130
Alexander Brand	0.00%	10000	1001		130
Alexander Knappe	0.76%	132	151	0.10%	72	-0.1	Spreadex: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alfie Plant	0.69%	145	176	0.10%	21	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Algot Kleen	1.29%	78	46		130
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.16%	625	451		61
Andoni Etchenique	0.31%	323	276		117
Andrew Wilson	1.85%	54	34		46
Anton Albers	0.90%	111	56		36
Arjun Prasad	0.11%	909	601		92
Aron Zemmer	0.79%	127	81		72
Asier Aguirre Izcue	0.06%	1667	551
Aymeric Laussot	0.28%	357	251		50
Baard Skogen	1.48%	68	51		92
Barclay Brown	0.61%	164	81		14
Bastien Amat	0.62%	161	151		142
Ben Sigel	0.03%	3333	601		61
Benjamin Hebert	1.13%	88	51		103
Benjamin Rusch	0.42%	238	151		92
Bjorn Akesson	0.82%	122	76		72
Borja Virto	0.98%	102	81		32
Bradley Bawden	0.24%	417	401		21
Callum Farr	0.59%	169	131		14
Calum Fyfe	1.46%	68	34		46
Canon Claycomb	0.64%	156	151		72
Charlie Forster	1.53%	65	51		103
Chase Hanna	0.68%	147	141		28
Christian Braunig	0.09%	1111	501		32
Christian Jacobsen	0.42%	238	201		57
Christofer Blomstrand	1.45%	69	61		14
Christofer Rahm	0.10%	1000	401		103
Christoffer Bring	0.03%	3333	801		50
Christoph Bleier	0.11%	909	351		92
Collin Adams	0.15%	667	651
Cooper Musselman	0.86%	116	71		21
Corey Shaun	0.23%	435	301		61
Daniel Gale	0.53%	189	131		92
David Horsey	1.99%	50	41		130
Dermot Mcelroy	0.14%	714	501		61
Dimitrios Papadatos	0.13%	769			55
Dominic Clemons	0.00%	10000	1001		136
Fabius Will Bradhering	0.02%	5000	1001		92
Filip Mruzek	0.79%	127	91		36
Filippo Serra	0.00%	10000	1251		136
Fiorino Clerici	0.01%	10000	1501		136
Frank Kennedy	1.18%	85	91	0.10%	61	-0.1	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Frederik Kjettrup	0.20%	500	251		148
Gary Hurley	1.29%	78	76		146
Gavin Green	0.32%	313	251		130
George Bloor	0.52%	192	151		2
Gordan Brixi	0.03%	3333	1001		150
Hamish Brown	2.21%	45	26		2
Haydn Barron	2.31%	43	29		9
Henric Sturehed	0.25%	400	501	0.10%			Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hugo Camelo Ferreira	0.00%	10000	3001
Hurly Long	0.25%	400	251		72
Jack Davidson	1.39%	72	46		72
Jack Floydd	0.09%	1111	501
Jack Hawksby	0.12%	833	401		125
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa	0.61%	164	101		117
James Allan	0.16%	625	301		55
James Meyer De Beco	0.70%	143	141		28
Jamie Rutherford	1.88%	53	41		36
Jan Schneider	0.47%	213	141		36
Jannik De Bruyn	1.52%	66	46		36
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.43%	233	201		72
Javier Calles Roman	0.22%	455	276		28
Jean Bekirian	0.61%	164	131		61
Jean-Leon Aeschlimann	0.00%	10000	1001		72
Jeppe Kristian Andersen	0.89%	112	61		154
Jeremy Freiburghaus	0.15%	667	251		148
Jhared Hack	3.04%	33	36	0.30%	21	-0.3	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Catlin	1.80%	56	36		103
John Gough	0.30%	333	301		103
John-Ross Galbraith	0.16%	625	301		72
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.91%	110	101		103
Joseba Torres	0.60%	167	326	0.30%	61	-0.3	Unibet: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
Juan Salama	0.32%	313	251
Julian Perico	0.76%	132	67		2
Julien Brun	1.72%	58	41		117
Julien Sale	1.32%	76	56		125
Kevin Christopher Jegers	0.00%	10000	426		72
Kieran Cantley	0.04%	2500	601		61
Kristian Krogh Johannessen	1.45%	69	34		21
Lauri Ruuska	0.54%	185	101		50
Lenny Koch	0.00%	10000	2001		136
Leon Acikalin	0.01%	10000	2001		142
Liam Johnston	0.21%	476	251		103
Linus Lang	0.04%	2500	601		92
Logan Perkins	0.49%	204	376	0.20%	150	-0.2	Unibet: 375/1, 5pl, 1/4
Loic Naas	0.01%	10000	801		103
Lorenzo Scalise	0.94%	106	91		32
Louis Albertse	1.03%	97	61		13
Lukas Nemecz	1.17%	85	46		61
M.J. Viljoen	0.39%	256	201		61
Marc Hammer	0.71%	141	131		14
Marc Warren	2.28%	44	46	0.10%	2	0.25	Unibet: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mark Power	0.66%	152	111		36
Markus Varjun	0.00%	10000	651		72
Martin Eriksson	0.11%	909	276		60
Martin Vorster	0.91%	110	56		2
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon	0.47%	213	141		14
Matt Gilchrest	0.31%	323	251		72
Matteo Cristoni	1.34%	75	76
Matthew Southgate	1.18%	85	67		1
Matthias Schwab	0.33%	303	226		72
Maximilian Kieffer	0.68%	147	67		72
Michael Hirmer	0.49%	204	226		72
Morgan Jackson	0.00%	10000	1001		147
Nathan Legendre	0.10%	1000	401		72
Nick Bachem	0.22%	455	451		92
Nick Carlson	1.15%	87	101	0.20%	130	-0.2	Unibet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Oliver Gillberg	0.32%	313	151		72
Ollie Jacobsson	0.03%	3333	1001		125
Oskari Nikku	0.09%	1111	601		125
Palmer Jackson	0.29%	345	251		61
Patrick Foley	0.00%	10000			152
Pedro Figueiredo	2.59%	39	26
Pedro Lencart Silva	0.12%	833	601		103
Per Langfors	0.66%	152	101		46
Philipp Katich	0.23%	435	251		103
Pierre Pineau	0.32%	313	251		50
Quinnton Croker	0.22%	455	276		142
Robert Foley	0.04%	2500	401		154
Robin Petersson	0.32%	313	201		36
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.68%	147	181	0.10%	21	-0.1	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ronan Kleu	0.88%	114	126	0.10%	103	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ronan Mullarney	0.12%	833	276		57
Ryan Lumsden	0.54%	185	161		14
Ryan Van Velzen	2.43%	41	29		125
Sam Jones	0.33%	303	141		28
Sam Locke	0.12%	833	426		14
Santiago Tarrio	1.15%	87	41		36
Saptak Talwar	0.69%	145	201	0.20%	117	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Friedrichsen	1.32%	76	51		9
Sebastien Gros	0.03%	3333	551		103
Soren Broholt Lind	0.11%	909	601		117
Sven Cremer	0.00%	10000	2001		153
Tadeas Tetak	0.64%	156	131		2
Tapio Pulkkanen	2.54%	39	26		72
Taylor Carter	0.10%	1000	1001		72
Tiger Christensen	0.30%	333	201		72
Tobias Eden	0.68%	147	91		21
Tom Lewis	1.23%	81	46		92
Tom Mao	0.04%	2500	1001		117
Tom Sloman	0.12%	833	451		2
Tomas Gouveia	0.68%	147	201	0.20%	32	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vasco Alves	0.01%	10000	1251		136
Veer Ahlawat	1.02%	98			9
Victor Bjorlow	0.21%	476	351		54
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.21%	476	251		92
Will Enefer	3.30%	30	26		36
Will Porter	0.31%	323	251		36

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Wallin	1.80%	56	23		28
Alessandro Noseda	0.07%	1429	1001		127
Alex Goff	1.00%	100	51		17
Alexander Amey	0.16%	625	1001	0.10%	136	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alexander Brand	0.00%	10000	1001		136
Alexander Knappe	0.69%	145	151		83
Alfie Plant	0.61%	164	176		98
Algot Kleen	1.27%	79	46		98
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.42%	238	451	0.20%	110	-0.2	Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andoni Etchenique	0.59%	169	276	0.20%	98	-0.2	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Wilson	1.19%	84	34		28
Anton Albers	0.72%	139	56		17
Arjun Prasad	0.24%	417	601	0.10%	41	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aron Zemmer	0.98%	102	81		41
Asier Aguirre Izcue	0.26%	385	551	0.10%			Unibet: 550/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aymeric Laussot	0.36%	278	251		10
Baard Skogen	1.44%	69	51		136
Barclay Brown	0.81%	123	81		28
Bastien Amat	0.59%	169	151		136
Ben Sigel	0.18%	556	601		28
Benjamin Hebert	1.23%	81	51		110
Benjamin Rusch	0.71%	141	151		127
Bjorn Akesson	0.68%	147	76		41
Borja Virto	1.09%	92	81		41
Bradley Bawden	0.33%	303	401	0.10%	28	-0.1	Spreadex: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Callum Farr	0.84%	119	131	0.10%	83	-0.1	Unibet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Calum Fyfe	0.95%	105	34		41
Canon Claycomb	0.59%	169	151		41
Charlie Forster	1.02%	98	51		66
Chase Hanna	0.88%	114	141	0.20%	83	-0.2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christian Braunig	0.32%	313	501	0.10%	41	-0.1	BetMGM: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christian Jacobsen	0.44%	227	201		10
Christofer Blomstrand	1.01%	99	61		17
Christofer Rahm	0.17%	588	401		66
Christoffer Bring	0.09%	1111	801		1
Christoph Bleier	0.30%	333	351		127
Cooper Musselman	0.68%	147	71		6
Corey Shaun	0.33%	303	301		17
Daniel Gale	0.73%	137	131		110
David Horsey	1.68%	60	41		127
Dermot Mcelroy	0.25%	400	501	0.10%	28	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dimitrios Papadatos	0.25%	400			17
Dominic Clemons	0.03%	3333	1001		98
Fabius Will Bradhering	0.08%	1250	1001		41
Filip Mruzek	0.68%	147	91		41
Filippo Serra	0.00%	10000	1251		144
Fiorino Clerici	0.08%	1250	1501		146
Frank Kennedy	1.27%	79	91	0.20%	110	-0.2	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Frederik Kjettrup	0.30%	333	251		110
Gary Hurley	1.33%	75	76		149
Gavin Green	0.55%	182	251	0.20%	83	-0.2	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
George Bloor	0.53%	189	151		2
Gordan Brixi	0.17%	588	1001	0.10%	149	-0.1	Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hamish Brown	1.30%	77	26		6
Hayden Hopewell	0.17%	588			83
Haydn Barron	1.35%	74	29		2
Henric Sturehed	0.52%	192	501	0.30%			Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hurly Long	0.54%	185	251	0.10%	66	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Davidson	1.40%	71	46		41
Jack Floydd	0.20%	500	501
Jack Hawksby	0.33%	303	401	0.10%	41	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa	0.81%	123	101		98
James Allan	0.27%	370	301		10
James Meyer De Beco	0.62%	161	141		41
Jamie Rutherford	1.15%	87	41		28
Jan Schneider	0.76%	132	141	0.10%	6	-0.1	Unibet: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jannik De Bruyn	0.94%	106	46		41
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.69%	145	201	0.20%	127	-0.2	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Javier Calles Roman	0.33%	303	276		98
Jean Bekirian	0.84%	119	131	0.10%	98	-0.1	Unibet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jean-Leon Aeschlimann	0.02%	5000	1001		10
Jeppe Kristian Andersen	1.03%	97	61		127
Jeremy Freiburghaus	0.35%	286	251		149
Jhared Hack	1.49%	67	36		10
John Catlin	1.58%	63	36		66
John Gough	0.49%	204	301	0.20%	17	-0.2	Spreadex: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
John-Ross Galbraith	0.21%	476	301		41
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	1.14%	88	101	0.20%	110	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joseba Torres	0.86%	116	326	0.60%	83	-0.6	Unibet: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
Juan Salama	0.40%	250	251
Julian Perico	0.67%	149	67		28
Julien Brun	1.51%	66	41		110
Julien Sale	1.30%	77	56		136
Kevin Christopher Jegers	0.04%	2500	426		83
Kieran Cantley	0.13%	769	601		83
Kristian Krogh Johannessen	0.94%	106	34		28
Lauri Ruuska	0.82%	122	101		10
Lenny Koch	0.02%	5000	2001		136
Leon Acikalin	0.08%	1250	2001		144
Liam Johnston	0.45%	222	251	0.10%	41	-0.1	Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Linus Lang	0.13%	769	601		41
Logan Perkins	0.76%	132	376	0.50%	146	-0.5	Unibet: 375/1, 5pl, 1/4
Loic Naas	0.08%	1250	801		98
Lorenzo Scalise	1.11%	90	91		127
Louis Albertse	0.85%	118	61		41
Lukas Nemecz	1.18%	85	46		41
M.J. Viljoen	0.65%	154	201	0.20%	98	-0.2	Unibet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marc Hammer	0.93%	108	131	0.20%	28	-0.2	Unibet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marc Warren	1.33%	75	46		10
Mark Power	0.90%	111	111		41
Markus Varjun	0.00%	10000	651		66
Martin Eriksson	0.23%	435	276		17
Martin Vorster	0.74%	135	56		17
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon	0.45%	222	141		17
Matt Gilchrest	0.41%	244	251		28
Matteo Cristoni	1.38%	72	76	0.10%			Unibet: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthew Southgate	0.87%	115	67		6
Matthias Schwab	0.58%	172	226	0.10%	66	-0.1	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maximilian Kieffer	0.88%	114	67		110
Michael Hirmer	0.77%	130	226	0.30%	98	-0.3	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Morgan Jackson	0.01%	10000	1001		153
Nathan Legendre	0.27%	370	401		110
Nick Bachem	0.50%	200	451	0.30%	110	-0.3	Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nick Carlson	1.18%	85	101	0.20%	136	-0.2	Unibet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Oliver Gillberg	0.38%	263	151		127
Ollie Jacobsson	0.09%	1111	1001		127
Oskari Nikku	0.18%	556	601		66
Palmer Jackson	0.57%	175	251	0.20%	98	-0.2	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Patrick Foley	0.00%	10000			154
Pedro Figueiredo	1.42%	70	26
Pedro Lencart Silva	0.20%	500	601		110
Per Langfors	0.54%	185	101		66
Philipp Katich	0.31%	323	251		66
Pierre Pineau	0.43%	233	251		66
Quinnton Croker	0.44%	227	276	0.10%	110	-0.1	Unibet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Robert Foley	0.18%	556	401		146
Robin Petersson	0.37%	270	201		17
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.60%	167	181		83
Ronan Kleu	1.10%	91	126	0.30%	41	-0.3	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ronan Mullarney	0.22%	455	276		41
Ryan Lumsden	0.57%	175	161		28
Ryan Van Velzen	1.99%	50	29		136
Sam Jones	0.40%	250	141		41
Sam Locke	0.21%	476	426		66
Santiago Tarrio	1.22%	82	41		66
Saptak Talwar	0.98%	102	201	0.50%	110	-0.5	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Friedrichsen	1.38%	72	51		66
Sebastien Gros	0.21%	476	551		83
Soren Broholt Lind	0.22%	455	601	0.10%	83	-0.1	Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sven Cremer	0.05%	2000	2001		155
Tadeas Tetak	0.55%	182	131		2
Tapio Pulkkanen	1.99%	50	26		83
Taylor Carter	0.18%	556	1001	0.10%	41	-0.1	Unibet: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Lecomte	0.02%	5000	2001		98
Tiger Christensen	0.38%	263	201		41
Tobias Eden	0.61%	164	91		2
Tom Lewis	1.25%	80	46		83
Tom Mao	0.12%	833	1001		110
Tom Sloman	0.24%	417	451		66
Tomas Gouveia	0.87%	115	201	0.40%	41	-0.4	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vasco Alves	0.06%	1667	1251		149
Veer Ahlawat	0.80%	125			28
Victor Bjorlow	0.41%	244	351	0.10%	83	-0.1	Spreadex: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.47%	213	251	0.10%	83	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Enefer	2.33%	43	26		66
Will Porter	0.61%	164	251	0.20%	66	-0.2	BetMGM: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jhared Hack	3.04%	33	36	0.30%	21	-2	Bet365: 35/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Joseba Torres	0.60%	167	326	0.30%	61	-2	Unibet: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Nick Carlson	1.15%	87	101	0.20%	130	-2	Unibet: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Joseba Torres	0.86%	116	326	0.60%	83	-1	Unibet: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Saptak Talwar	0.98%	102	201	0.50%	110	-1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Logan Perkins	0.76%	132	376	0.50%	146	-1	Unibet: 375/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Tomas Gouveia	0.87%	115	201	0.40%	41		Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Ronan Kleu	1.10%	91	126	0.30%	41		Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Michael Hirmer	0.77%	130	226	0.30%	98		Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.