Simulation Results: Swiss Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 2.21% 45 34 131
Albin Bergstrom 1.05% 95 67 107
Alessandro Noseda 0.01% 10000 1501 155
Alex Maguire 0.21% 476 351 53
Alexander Settemsdal 0.04% 2500 2001 76
Alfie Plant 0.31% 323 251 36
Alvaro Quiros 0.24% 417 401 69
Anders Emil Ejlersen 0.04% 2500 1001 151
Andoni Etchenique 0.39% 256 226 119
Andrew Garner 0.00% 10000 1001 137
Aron Zemmer 0.48% 208 251 0.10% 119 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ashley Chesters 0.64% 156 11
Aymeric Laussot 0.53% 189 126 76
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 1.89% 53 51 3
Ben Sigel 0.02% 5000 3001 17
Ben Stow 0.37% 270 251 36
Benjamin Kedochim 0.06% 1667 1501 76
Benjamin Rusch 2.13% 47 31 76
Borja Virto 1.11% 90 67 8
Bradley Bawden 0.12% 833 1001 69
Brandon Kewalramani 0.07% 1429 1501 11
Bryce Easton 0.67% 149 111 76
Callan Barrow 0.37% 270 126 53
Carlos Pigem 1.06% 94 126 0.30% 93 -0.3 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cedric Gugler 0.44% 227 251 114
Chase Hanna 0.55% 182 151 44
Chris Paisley 0.19% 526 1001 0.10% 11 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christian Jacobsen 0.67% 149 91 93
Christofer Blomstrand 1.98% 51 34 44
Curtis Knipes 0.07% 1429 1001 93
Damien Perrier 0.19% 526 751 0.10% 63 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Rodrigues 0.16% 625 201 60
Daniel Young 1.32% 76 67 25
David Boote 0.17% 588 114
David Horsey 0.99% 101 81 28
David Law 3.25% 31 21 17
Dermot Mcelroy 0.58% 172 151 76
Dongwon Kim 0.71% 141 751 0.60% 147 -0.6 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eduard Rousaud 0.30% 333 276 31
Enrico Di Nitto 0.15% 667 751 119
Enrique Dimayuga 0.17% 588 201 107
Euan Walker 2.81% 36 29 93
Felix Mory 1.02% 98 67 1
Filip Mruzek 0.91% 110 67 36
Filippo Celli 1.66% 60 36 107
Filippo Serra 0.00% 10000 1001 154
Fiorino Clerici 0.00% 10000 2501 151
Frank Kennedy 0.22% 455 301 75
Gabriel Morgan 0.03% 3333 2501 72
Gary King 0.05% 2000 1501 93
George Bloor 0.85% 118 76 53
George Mason 0.16% 625 751 73
Gudmundur Kristjansson 0.28% 357 601 0.10% 137 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gunner Wiebe 0.33% 303 401 0.10% 76 -0.1 Priced Up: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Haraldur Magnus 0.27% 370 276 53
Hayden Hopewell 0.29% 345 251 119
Herman Wibe Sekne 0.26% 385 201 60
Hugo Townsend 1.32% 76 51 53
Hurly Long 1.07% 93 71 93
J.C. Ritchie 2.78% 36 21 93
Jack Davidson 1.41% 71 67 76
Jack Floydd 0.07% 1429 1001 137
Jack Mcdonald 0.64% 156 126 17
James Ashfield 1.02% 98 91 142
James Meyer De Beco 0.37% 270 301 131
James Morrison 0.79% 127 126 126
James Ross 0.01% 10000 1001 28
Javier Sainz 0.27% 370 251 36
Jens Kristian Thysted 0.15% 667 351 76
Jeppe Kristian Andersen 1.51% 66 41 71
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.96% 104 67 107
Jiri Zuska 0.46% 217 151 126
John Axelsen 0.87% 115 101 5
John Gough 0.21% 476 601 147
Jonathan Caldwell 0.45% 222 201 142
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 1.12% 89 46 17
Jordan Prutthaweewat 0.00% 10000 2001 142
Joseph Winslow 0.73% 137 126 76
Joshua Berry 0.64% 156 67 53
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.66% 152 126 146
Jovan Rebula 0.71% 141 81 65
Julian Perico 0.81% 123 101 17
Julien Sale 1.89% 53 34 25
Kalle Samooja 0.49% 204 81 151
Lauri Ruuska 0.35% 286 176 74
Lee Slattery 0.34% 294 276 65
Liam Nolan 1.38% 72 81 0.10% 49 -0.1 Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lukas Nemecz 0.90% 111 41 49
Marc Hammer 0.29% 345 301 8
Marc Warren 0.07% 1429 751 8
Mark Power 0.34% 294 201 137
Martin Simonsen 0.69% 145 151 107
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon 0.09% 1111 501 25
Matt Oshrine 0.33% 303 276 5
Matt Sharpstene 0.07% 1429 1001 142
Matthew Cheung 0.70% 143 101 76
Matty Lamb 0.00% 10000 2501 93
Mauro Gilardi 0.02% 5000 1001 17
Max Kennedy 1.06% 94 101 0.10% 93 -0.1 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Max Schliesing 0.35% 286 751 0.20% 150 -0.2 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maximilian Schmitt 0.34% 294 601 0.20% 93 -0.2 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maximilian Steinlechner 2.33% 43 21 31
Michael Hirmer 0.25% 400 201 31
Michele Ortolani 0.28% 357 601 0.10% 36 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nathan Legendre 0.14% 714 501 114
Nicholas Infanti 0.84% 119 1001 0.70% 119 -0.7 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicola Gerhardsen 0.02% 5000 751 114
Nicolai Kristensen 0.64% 156 46 65
Nikhil Rama 0.92% 109 126 0.10% 131 -0.1 Unibet: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 1.66% 60 34 93
Oliver Csanyi 0.00% 10000 3001 149
Oliver Farr 0.07% 1429 351 44
Oliver Wilson 0.86% 116 176 0.30% 11 -0.3 Betfair: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Palmer Jackson 0.14% 714 601 93
Pavan Sagoo 0.24% 417 751 0.10% 93 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pedro Figueiredo 0.92% 109 81 44
Peter Launer Baek 0.48% 208 71 131
Philipp Katich 0.16% 625 301 107
Piers Berrington 0.04% 2500 1501 126
Quim Vidal 1.37% 73 41 114
Renato Paratore 2.67% 37 29 36
Rhys Enoch 0.57% 175 276 0.20% 137 -0.2 BetGoodwin: 275/1, 6pl, 1/4
Robin Petersson 0.84% 119 101 17
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 2.33% 43 29 31
Romain Wattel 0.21% 476 501 60
Ronan Kleu 0.50% 200 151 31
Roope Kakko 0.33% 303 176 63
Ryan Evans 0.08% 1250 1001 65
Ryan Lumsden 0.86% 116 71 28
Sam Jones 0.50% 200 151 36
Sam Locke 0.16% 625 501 131
Santiago Tarrio 0.46% 217 126 2
Saptak Talwar 0.23% 435 401 44
Sebastian Eidsaether Syr 0.03% 3333 1001 126
Sebastian Friedrichsen 0.87% 115 111 11
Sebastian Garcia 1.32% 76 67 93
Simon Zach 0.04% 2500 1501 131
Soren Broholt Lind 0.12% 833 751 76
Stefano Mazzoli 2.06% 49 34 16
Stuart Manley 0.82% 122 201 0.30% 49 -0.3 Priced Up: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sven Cremer 0.00% 10000 4001 119
Taichi Kho 2.72% 37 26 107
Tiger Christensen 0.52% 192 126 76
Tim Tillmanns 0.48% 208 176 17
Timon Baltl 0.24% 417 401 53
Tobias Jonsson 0.83% 120 81 3
Tom Lewis 1.57% 64 67 0.10% 76 -0.1 Betfair: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Mao 0.01% 10000 2501 76
Tomas Gouveia 0.54% 185 151 36
Vasco Alves 0.00% 10000 3001 126
Velten Meyer 0.14% 714 301
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.79% 127 126 76
Victor Pastor 0.95% 105 71 76
Will Enefer 0.72% 139 151 0.10% 5 0.54166666666667 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Hopkins 0.37% 270 401 0.10% 119 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yente Van Doren 0.00% 10000 751 49

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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