Simulation Results: Scottish Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 1.22% 82 71 12
Albert Boneta 1.52% 66 51 74
Alejandro Canizares 0.03% 3333 2501 143
Alex Maguire 0.42% 238 176 74
Alexander Settemsdal 0.11% 909 751 12
Alvaro Quiros 0.40% 250 351 0.10% 56 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aron Zemmer 0.57% 175 201 0.10% 32 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Asier Aguirre Izcue 0.17% 588 401 154
Aydan Verdonk 0.02% 5000 2501 151
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 1.23% 81 67 134
Ben Schmidt 1.49% 67 46 134
Ben Sigel 0.10% 1000 751 64
Ben Stow 0.83% 120 81 56
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.65% 154 81 110
Benjamin Kedochim 0.07% 1429 1501 120
Benjamin Rusch 1.10% 91 71 74
Biagio Andrea Gagliardi 0.00% 10000 1501 110
Borja Virto 1.13% 88 86 43
Bradley Bawden 0.33% 303 251 29
Bradley Neil 0.01% 10000 751 143
Bryce Easton 1.51% 66 91 0.40% 8 -0.4 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Callan Barrow 0.52% 192 86 110
Calum Fyfe 0.55% 182 81 43
Cedric Gugler 0.19% 526 601 43
Charlie Thornton 0.11% 909 751 146
Chase Hanna 0.40% 250 501 0.20% 74 -0.2 VBet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chris Maclean 0.04% 2500 501 99
Chris Paisley 0.50% 200 201 64
Christian Jacobsen 0.60% 167 101 134
Christofer Rahm 0.20% 500 501 99
Christoffer Bring 1.30% 77 71 151
Connor Graham 0.11% 909 61 12
Craig Howie 0.28% 357 151 21
Craig Ross 0.31% 323 151 56
Daan Huizing 0.59% 169 151 110
Damien Perrier 0.36% 278 351 0.10% 32 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Daniel Mulligan 0.02% 5000 2501 134
Daniel Rodrigues 0.09% 1111 401 32
Daniel Van Tonder 0.61% 164 46 99
Daniel Young 2.09% 48 29 1
David Horsey 1.61% 62 61 21
David Law 2.67% 37 21 10
David Lundgren 0.17% 588 351 74
Dermot Mcelroy 0.19% 526 226 74
Eddie Pepperell 2.72% 37 26 18
Enrico Di Nitto 0.17% 588 751 120
Euan Walker 1.96% 51 29 3
Filip Mruzek 1.14% 88 56 32
Filippo Celli 1.98% 51 26 5
Frank Kennedy 0.09% 1111 601 52
Gabriel Morgan 0.20% 500 501 32
Gary King 0.13% 769 501 134
George Bloor 0.66% 152 101 52
Gregor Graham 0.35% 286 176 91
Gustav Frimodt 0.04% 2500 501 120
Harvey Byers 0.00% 10000 3001 110
Hayden Hopewell 0.21% 476 501 62
Hugo Townsend 1.10% 91 86 99
Hurly Long 0.86% 116 101 12
Jack A. Mcdonald 0.00% 10000 301 74
Jack Bigham 0.00% 10000 251 91
Jack Davidson 0.66% 152 131 99
Jack Floydd 0.12% 833 401 99
Jack Mcdonald 1.24% 81 301 0.90% 32 -0.9 Skybet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Meyer De Beco 0.19% 526 751 0.10% 5 3.0416666666667 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Morrison 0.55% 182 111 21
Jamie Rutherford 1.16% 86 61 110
Javier Calles Roman 0.07% 1429 601 120
Javier Sainz 0.54% 185 176 43
Jens Kristian Thysted 0.35% 286 501 0.20% 148 -0.2 VBet: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.55% 182 151 120
Jiri Zuska 0.45% 222 151 134
Joachim B. Hansen 0.01% 10000 1001 99
John Gough 0.50% 200 111 4
John Henry 0.15% 667 351 91
Jonas Blixt 0.18% 556 501 74
Jonathan Caldwell 0.33% 303 601 0.20% 99 -0.2 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 0.78% 128 81 10
Joseba Torres 1.76% 57 161 1.10% 110 -1.1 QuinnBet: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joshua Berry 2.40% 42 29 18
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.14% 714 501 91
Jovan Rebula 0.89% 112 141 0.20% 43 -0.2 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Julien Quesne 1.54% 65 111 0.60% 2 6.3 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Julien Sale 0.82% 122 126 32
Justin Harding 0.31% 323 401 0.10% 74 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Justin Walters 0.66% 152 101 74
Kieran Cantley 0.08% 1250 351 155
Kyle Barker 0.23% 435 401 32
Lars Van Meijel 0.86% 116 71 32
Lauri Ruuska 0.52% 192 151 120
Lee Slattery 0.23% 435 501 91
Liam Johnston 0.29% 345 201 120
Liam Nolan 0.29% 345 151 148
Lorenzo Scalise 0.79% 127 91 43
Louis Albertse 0.22% 455 401 52
Lucas Vacarisas 1.04% 96 151 0.40% 120 -0.4 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Lyle Rowe 0.31% 323 351 64
Marc Hammer 0.73% 137 111 12
Marc Warren 0.27% 370 101 21
Mark Power 0.25% 400 201 71
Martin Simonsen 1.18% 85 126 0.40% 134 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon 0.51% 196 126 74
Matt Ford 0.20% 500 401 120
Matt Oshrine 0.53% 189 201 74
Matt Sharpstene 0.17% 588 751 120
Matthew Cheung 1.06% 94 151 0.40% 120 -0.4 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthis Besard 1.01% 99 91 99
Matty Lamb 0.02% 5000 2501 146
Max Kennedy 1.87% 53 41 141
Maxence Giboudot 0.70% 143 226 0.30% 8 -0.3 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Maximilian Jelinek 0.06% 1667 751 155
Maximilian Schmitt 0.22% 455 401 74
Maximilian Steinlechner 2.84% 35 23 74
Maxwell Martin 0.06% 1667 2001 21
Michal Bargenda 0.00% 10000 4001 120
Michele Ortolani 0.75% 133 151 0.10% 141 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nathan Legendre 0.17% 588 501 72
Niklas Lemke 2.18% 46 46 110
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 2.23% 45 34 18
Oliver Gillberg 0.29% 345 251 43
Oliver Jacobsson 0.06% 1667 501 74
Per Langfors 0.76% 132 101 110
Peter Launer Baek 0.21% 476 401 99
Philipp Katich 0.68% 147 111 120
Quim Vidal 0.55% 182 111 5
Renato Paratore 1.86% 54 34 21
Rhys Enoch 0.30% 333 226 52
Rhys Thompson 0.31% 323 351 64
Robin Petersson 0.65% 154 101 64
Rocco Repetto 1.59% 63 34 41
Ronan Kleu 0.31% 323 351 56
Rory Franssen 0.12% 833 251 64
Ryan Evans 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 99 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Lumsden 1.18% 85 51 61
Sam Locke 0.15% 667 501 64
Sampson Zheng 1.64% 61 91
Santiago Tarrio 1.20% 83 56 120
Saptak Talwar 0.37% 270 351 0.10% 56 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Garcia 1.03% 97 111 0.10% 91 -0.1 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Sandin 0.02% 5000 1001 43
Sebastien Gros 0.21% 476 601 148
Stefano Mazzoli 1.83% 55 51 29
Stuart Manley 0.79% 127 176 0.20% 21 -0.2 Spreadex: 175/1, 6pl, 1/5
Thomas Power Horan 0.07% 1429 72
Tiger Christensen 1.15% 87 67 62
Tim Tillmanns 0.67% 149 151 41
Toby Hunt 0.37% 270 301 43
Tom Lewis 1.43% 70 41 12
Tomas Gouveia 0.54% 185 201 153
Wil Besseling 0.71% 141 101 110
Wilco Nienaber 1.30% 77 41 74
Will Enefer 0.80% 125 61 21
Will Hopkins 0.43% 233 176 74
Will Nimmo 0.00% 10000 4001 143
Will Porter 0.03% 3333 751 29
Yente Van Doren 0.00% 10000 2001 91

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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