Simulation Results: Rosa Challenge Tour

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Wallin 0.59% 169 67 20
Adri Arnaus 2.27% 44 34 51
Albert Boneta 1.31% 76 67 20
Albin Bergstrom 1.38% 72 86 0.20% 20 -0.2 Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alejandro Aguilera 0.04% 2500 2501 150
Alejandro Pedryc 0.01% 10000 3001 101
Alexander Settemsdal 0.47% 213 201 93
Alfie Plant 1.47% 68 51 61
Anders Emil Ejlersen 0.25% 400 201 45
Andoni Etchenique 0.51% 196 181 51
Anton Albers 1.32% 76 51 2
Antoni Hawkins 0.00% 10000 4001 93
Aron Zemmer 0.85% 118 126 0.10% 33 -0.1 PaddyPower: 110/1, 6pl, 1/4
Aydan Verdonk 0.01% 10000 3001 143
Barclay Brown 0.18% 556 801 0.10% 55 -0.1 Unibet: 800/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bastien Amat 0.38% 263 181 70
Ben Sigel 0.10% 1000 2501 0.10% 83 -0.1 Bet365: 2500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.62% 161 111 14
Benjamin Kedochim 0.06% 1667 1501 137
Benjamin Rusch 0.75% 133 126 70
Borja Virto 0.85% 118 91 28
Bradley Bawden 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 61 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Kewalramani 0.23% 435 801 0.10% 93 -0.1 Unibet: 800/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryce Easton 1.59% 63 56 5
Callan Barrow 0.73% 137 101 20
Callum Farr 1.32% 76 41 83
Calum Fyfe 0.77% 130 91 7
Cedric Gugler 0.25% 400 301 39
Chase Hanna 0.89% 112 91 83
Chris Paisley 0.18% 556 301 61
Christian Jacobsen 0.22% 455 251 70
Christofer Rahm 0.15% 667 401 101
Christoffer Bring 0.40% 250 176 70
Clement Charmasson 1.11% 90 101 0.10% 28 -0.1 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Conor Gough 0.00% 10000 1001 70
Craig Howie 0.47% 213 251 0.10% 93 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Daan Huizing 0.92% 109 126 0.10% 101 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Damien Perrier 0.22% 455 801 0.10% 130 -0.1 Unibet: 800/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dan Erickson 1.15% 87 81 120
Daniel Van Tonder 1.55% 65 46 93
Daniel Young 2.34% 43 23 93
David Borda 0.14% 714 801 125
David Horsey 0.81% 123 71 33
David Langley 0.45% 222 151 143
David Law 2.77% 36 23 54
Dennis Fuchs 0.01% 10000 751 137
Dermot Mcelroy 0.31% 323 251 130
Euan Walker 2.85% 35 34 70
Felix Mory 1.39% 72 51 41
Filip Mruzek 0.47% 213 111 33
Freddy Schott 1.01% 99 71 125
Gabriel Morgan 0.22% 455 426 83
George Bloor 0.48% 208 126 39
Gregor Graham 0.23% 435 276 47
Gregorio De Leo 3.06% 33 29 47
Grzegorz Zielinski 0.00% 10000 4001 154
Gustav Frimodt 0.24% 417 226 130
Haider Hussain 0.02% 5000 1501 70
Haraldur Magnus 0.86% 116 101 101
Harvey Byers 0.01% 10000 4001 143
Hayden Hopewell 0.27% 370 301 143
Hugo Townsend 1.27% 79 51 1
J.C. Ritchie 1.95% 51 29 20
Jack Davidson 0.42% 238 201 112
Jack Floydd 0.09% 1111 1001 33
Jakub Hrinda 0.04% 2500 1501 130
James Allan 0.32% 313
James Meyer De Beco 0.89% 112 81 93
Jamie Rutherford 1.77% 56 41 83
Jan Branicki 0.00% 10000 152
Jan Cafourek 0.03% 3333 2001 101
Jan Rybczynski 0.00% 10000 2501 112
Javier Sainz 0.31% 323 226 56
Jens Kristian Thysted 0.09% 1111 801 112
Jeppe Kristian Andersen 1.23% 81 56 47
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.29% 345 226 56
Jesper Sandborg 0.25% 400 301 83
Jiri Zuska 0.53% 189 251 0.10% 112 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Axelsen 0.86% 116 67 83
John Gough 1.03% 97 51 12
Jonathan Caldwell 0.29% 345 301 120
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 1.63% 61 46 61
Joseba Torres 0.31% 323 801 0.20% 101 -0.2 Unibet: 800/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joshua Berry 1.31% 76 41 83
Jovan Rebula 0.40% 250 126 5
Julien Quesne 1.57% 64 51 101
Justin Harding 0.48% 208 226 150
Justin Walters 0.65% 154 181 0.10% 4 2.1375 PaddyPower: 175/1, 6pl, 1/4
Kim Koivu 0.15% 667 376 101
Kris Kim 0.03% 3333 801 120
Lars Van Meijel 1.03% 97 56 61
Lauri Ruuska 0.35% 286 181 70
Lorenzo Scalise 0.63% 159 111 143
Luca Cianchetti 0.08% 1250 1251 120
Lucas Vacarisas 0.69% 145 111 120
Luis Masaveu 1.06% 94 51 70
Marc Warren 0.91% 110 81 83
Marcin Bogusz 0.00% 10000 4001 155
Martin Simonsen 0.83% 120 181 0.30% 112 -0.3 PaddyPower: 175/1, 6pl, 1/4
Mateusz Gradecki 0.04% 2500 1501 130
Matt Sharpstene 0.18% 556 801 0.10% 12 -0.1 Unibet: 800/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthis Besard 1.00% 100 71 7
Maxence Giboudot 0.58% 172 126 61
Maximilian Steinlechner 2.40% 42 23 14
Michal Bargenda 0.00% 10000 4001 125
Nicholas Infanti 0.39% 256 301 0.10% 28 -0.1 Boyle Sports: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nicolai Kristensen 0.27% 370 201 101
Nikolas Tyminski 0.00% 10000 4001 152
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 2.92% 34 23 7
Oliver Csanyi 0.00% 10000 4001 137
Oliver Gillberg 0.28% 357 176 45
Olly Huggins 0.16% 625 1251 0.10% 137 -0.1 Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pedro Figueiredo 1.38% 72 61 19
Per Langfors 0.97% 103 81 33
Philipp Katich 0.34% 294 151 59
Pierre Pellegrin 0.02% 5000 2501 112
Piers Berrington 0.12% 833 1001 33
Quim Vidal 0.69% 145 91 7
Renato Paratore 2.22% 45 34 14
Rhys Enoch 0.24% 417 251 51
Rikard Karlberg 0.36% 278 151 20
Robbie Busher 0.04% 2500 1001 41
Robin Petersson 0.47% 213 226 47
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 1.05% 95 56 70
Rocco Repetto 1.60% 63 34 28
Ronan Kleu 0.86% 116 71 14
Ryan Lumsden 0.83% 120 91 83
Sam Hutsby 0.58% 172 276 0.20% 60 -0.2 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Jones 0.94% 106 81 28
Sam Locke 0.27% 370 301 61
Saptak Talwar 0.60% 167 151 41
Sebastian Garcia 0.72% 139 181 0.20% 41 -0.2 PaddyPower: 175/1, 6pl, 1/4
Sebastien Gros 0.09% 1111 801
Stefano Mazzoli 1.83% 55 29 14
Stuart Manley 0.45% 222 351 0.20% 58 -0.2 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tadeas Tetak 0.57% 175 181
Teun Van Der Schoof 0.00% 10000 2501 143
Thomas Power Horan 0.04% 2500 1501 130
Tiger Christensen 0.62% 161 71 70
Tim Tillmanns 0.24% 417 251 137
Timon Baltl 0.20% 500 376 137
Tobias Jonsson 2.01% 50 41 3
Toby Hunt 0.72% 139 101 7
Toby Tree 0.05% 2000 1501 61
Tomas Bessa 0.08% 1250 1001 20
Tomas Gouveia 0.29% 345 301 112
Tyko Tuohimaa 0.00% 10000 4001 125
Vasco Alves 0.01% 10000 4001 61
Velten Meyer 0.15% 667 426 130
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.41% 244 126 125
Victor Pastor 0.27% 370 1501 0.20% 143 -0.2 Bet365: 1500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vince Van Veen 0.76% 132 101 101
Wil Besseling 0.79% 127 151 0.10% 101 -0.1 Spreadex: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Will Hopkins 0.37% 270 201 70
Will Nimmo 0.00% 10000 1001 70
Yente Van Doren 0.00% 10000 2001 112

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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