Simulation Results: Raiffeisenbank Golf Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 1.09% 92 46 44
Albert Boneta 1.36% 74 36 21
Albin Bergstrom 1.00% 100 67 111
Alejandro Aguilera 0.06% 1667 501 72
Alejandro Canizares 0.07% 1429 1001 142
Ales Korinek 0.01% 10000 2001 118
Alexander Settemsdal 0.05% 2000 2001 18
Alfie Plant 0.38% 263 176 11
Alvaro Quiros 0.28% 357 401 104
Andrew Garner 0.00% 10000 1501 137
Anton Albers 0.77% 130 91 39
Aron Zemmer 0.39% 256 276 50
Aydan Verdonk 0.01% 10000 1001 67
Bastien Amat 0.24% 417 301 104
Ben Sigel 0.16% 625 501 53
Ben Stow 0.61% 164 141 97
Benjamin Follett-Smith 1.03% 97 101 62
Benjamin Kedochim 0.10% 1000 1501 142
Borja Virto 2.56% 39 29 18
Bradley Bawden 0.20% 500 501 104
Brandon Kewalramani 0.29% 345 351
Bryce Easton 0.91% 110 111 15
Callan Barrow 0.41% 244 126 21
Callum Farr 1.03% 97 67 74
Calum Fyfe 0.76% 132 71 39
Calum Scott 4.53% 22 46 2.40% 63 -2.4 Ladbrokes: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cedric Gugler 0.40% 250 301 0.10% Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chase Hanna 0.55% 182 151 50
Christian Jacobsen 0.62% 161 101 5
Christofer Rahm 0.22% 455 351 58
Christoffer Bring 2.02% 50 34 11
Damien Perrier 0.19% 526 601 134
Daniel Young 1.78% 56 46 58
David Borda 0.32% 313 401 0.10% 53 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eduard Rousaud 0.41% 244 201 32
Enrico Di Nitto 0.14% 714 1001 128
Felix Mory 3.59% 28 29 0.10% 84 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 28/1, 5pl, 1/4
Filip Mruzek 0.97% 103 51 4
Filippo Celli 1.10% 91 41 128
Fiorino Clerici 0.00% 10000 3001 84
Frank Kennedy 0.17% 588 401 84
Freddy Schott 3.41% 29
Gabriel Morgan 0.03% 3333 2501 97
Gary King 0.03% 3333 2001 84
George Bloor 1.19% 84 67 74
Gianmaria Rean Trinchero 0.01% 10000 1001 144
Gunner Wiebe 0.38% 263 351 0.10% 74 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harvey Byers 0.00% 10000 2001 111
Hayden Hopewell 0.22% 455 301 148
Herman Wibe Sekne 0.36% 278 251 84
Hugo Camelo Ferreira 0.00% 10000 3001 151
J.C. Ritchie 2.25% 44 29 15
Jack Davidson 1.24% 81 81 32
James Allan 0.17% 588 351 97
James Ashfield 0.59% 169 126 84
Jamie Rutherford 2.01% 50 29 44
Jan Cafourek 0.02% 5000 1501 84
Jens Kristian Thysted 0.18% 556 351 44
Jeremy Freiburghaus 1.05% 95 81 32
Jesper Sandborg 0.58% 172 151 74
Jiri Zuska 0.41% 244 101 69
John Axelsen 1.58% 63 61 27
John Gough 0.13% 769 751 53
John Murphy 0.01% 10000 1501 118
Jonathan Caldwell 0.29% 345 276 84
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 1.42% 70 41 32
Joshua Berry 0.75% 133 61 9
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.33% 303 176 118
Jovan Rebula 0.54% 185 101 18
Julian Perico 1.24% 81 71 74
Jye Pickin 0.06% 1667 301 128
Keenan Davidse 0.51% 196 151 50
Lauri Ruuska 0.35% 286 251 58
Lloyd Jefferson Go 0.19% 526 176 69
Lorenzo Scalise 2.61% 38 41 0.20% 118 -0.2 Unibet: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Luca Cianchetti 0.01% 10000 1501 137
Lucas Vacarisas 0.69% 145 126 8
Lukas Nemecz 1.33% 75 41 11
Marc Hammer 1.27% 79 71 32
Marc Warren 0.30% 333 201 9
Marco Florioli 0.02% 5000 1001 118
Mark Power 0.19% 526 276 104
Martin Simonsen 1.12% 89 201 0.60% 21 -0.6 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mateusz Gradecki 0.03% 3333 2001 72
Matt Oshrine 0.77% 130 126 111
Matt Sharpstene 0.06% 1667 1251 53
Matthew Cheung 0.65% 154 111 2
Matthis Besard 0.77% 130 67 44
Matty Lamb 0.00% 10000 2501 118
Matus Cedzo 0.00% 10000 2501 141
Matyas Zapletal 0.00% 10000 2501 146
Max Kennedy 0.87% 115 126 0.10% 11 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maxence Giboudot 0.28% 357 351 104
Maximilian Jelinek 0.03% 3333 1501 111
Maximilian Schmitt 0.39% 256 751 0.30% 104 -0.3 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maximilian Steinlechner 2.37% 42 21 153
Michael Hirmer 0.56% 179 111 134
Michal Bargenda 0.00% 10000 4501 146
Michal Talanda 0.00% 10000 1251 118
Nick Carlson 1.45% 69 91 0.40% 21 -0.4 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nikolas Tyminski 0.00% 10000 3001 144
Oliver Bekker 0.53% 189 126 53
Oliver Gillberg 1.03% 97 56 118
Oliver Wilson 1.46% 68 81 0.20% 39 -0.2 Spreadex: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Olly Huggins 0.20% 500 351 111
Ondrej Sustek 0.05% 2000 3001 84
Palmer Jackson 0.15% 667 601 1
Pedro Figueiredo 1.03% 97 81 44
Pedro Lencart 0.01% 10000 1501 128
Per Langfors 1.64% 61 41 63
Peter Launer Baek 0.37% 270 101 74
Quim Vidal 1.02% 98 56 84
Renato Paratore 2.41% 41 26 27
Rhys Enoch 0.25% 400 351 38
Ricardo Santos 0.02% 5000 501 128
Rikard Karlberg 1.24% 81 67 84
Rocco Repetto 0.60% 167 101 67
Romain Wattel 0.31% 323
Roman Sebrle 0.00% 10000 2501 152
Ronan Kleu 0.67% 149 111 58
Ryan Evans 0.14% 714 1001 44
Ryan Lumsden 1.09% 92 51 118
Sam Jones 0.74% 135 111
Sam Locke 0.10% 1000 601 97
Santiago Tarrio 1.26% 79 67 39
Saptak Talwar 0.26% 385 401 63
Sebastian Friedrichsen 1.39% 72 67 27
Sebastian Garcia 0.87% 115 81 5
Sebastian Vida 0.00% 10000 3001 149
Simon Zach 0.05% 2000 1501 137
Soren Broholt Lind 0.15% 667 801 153
Stefano Mazzoli 2.48% 40 26 27
Stuart Manley 0.70% 143 151 32
Tadeas Tetak 1.29% 78 51 21
Tiger Christensen 0.51% 196 201 15
Tim Tillmanns 0.69% 145 151 69
Tobias Jonsson 1.59% 63 51 2
Toby Tree 0.02% 5000 1501 74
Tom Bevington 0.00% 10000 2001 149
Tom Lewis 1.41% 71 67 74
Tomas Gouveia 0.85% 118 126 0.10% 39 -0.1 Vbet: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vaclav Tichy 0.03% 3333 1001 97
Vasco Alves 0.00% 10000 3001 84
Victor Pastor 0.93% 108 91 111
Viktor Nordwall 0.02% 5000 1001 118
Vince Van Veen 0.37% 270 201 111
Will Enefer 1.35% 74 71 5
Will Hopkins 0.25% 400 401 97
Wouter De Vries 0.31% 323 351 74
Yente Van Doren 0.17% 588 601 74

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


© Copyright 1999-2025 Tour-Tips.com.
All rights reserved.

This Week's Updates