Simulation Results: Open de Portugal

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 1.39% 72 71 52
Albert Boneta 1.36% 74 67 21
Albin Bergstrom 1.10% 91 86 66
Alexander Settemsdal 0.33% 303 301 124
Alfie Plant 0.72% 139 86 52
Alvaro Quiros 0.08% 1250 501 135
Anders Emil Ejlersen 0.21% 476 501 30
Anton Albers 1.79% 56 36 108
Aron Zemmer 0.55% 182 126 52
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 0.45% 222 126 88
Bastien Amat 0.31% 323 251 73
Ben Brown 0.01% 10000 2501 135
Ben Sigel 0.07% 1429 3001 73
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.78% 128 81 97
Benjamin Rusch 0.62% 161 176 0.10% 47 -0.1 PaddyPower: 175/1, 6pl, 1/4
Borja Virto 0.97% 103 81 17
Bradley Bawden 0.38% 263 251 127
Bryce Easton 1.45% 69 46 88
Callan Barrow 0.67% 149 111 30
Callum Farr 1.05% 95 71 43
Calum Fyfe 1.08% 93 71 43
Casper Simberg 0.03% 3333 1001 88
Chase Hanna 0.73% 137 161 0.10% 117 -0.1 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chris Paisley 0.19% 526 401 132
Christian Jacobsen 0.21% 476 401 135
Christofer Blomstrand 0.68% 147 141 117
Christofer Rahm 0.09% 1111 1001 120
Clement Charmasson 1.00% 100 111 0.10% 69 -0.1 PaddyPower: 100/1, 6pl, 1/4
Conor Gough 0.00% 10000 1501 130
Daan Huizing 0.57% 175 161 135
Dan Erickson 0.75% 133 141 47
Daniel Rodrigues 0.12% 833 201 21
Daniel Smith 0.09% 1111 551 73
Daniel Young 1.74% 57 26 21
Danny List 0.64% 156 121 135
David Horsey 0.81% 123 86 17
David Law 1.90% 53 36 2
Dermot Mcelroy 0.15% 667 751 135
Eddie Pepperell 2.34% 43 36 97
Enrico Di Nitto 0.10% 1000 751 52
Euan Walker 2.22% 45 41 120
Felix Mory 2.18% 46 41 21
Filippo Celli 2.51% 40 23 36
Frank Kennedy 0.34% 294 401 0.10% 124 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gabriel Morgan 0.17% 588 751 52
George Bloor 0.42% 238 176 21
Gregor Graham 0.31% 323 301 11
Gustav Frimodt 0.15% 667 451 43
Haider Hussain 0.02% 5000 2001 97
Haraldur Magnus 0.68% 147 151 43
Hayden Hopewell 0.20% 500 501 131
Hugo Camelo Ferreira 0.00% 10000 2001 134
Hugo Townsend 1.96% 51 36 63
Hurly Long 1.02% 98 67 88
J.C. Ritchie 2.55% 39 26 1
Jack Cope 0.44% 227 451 0.20% 97 -0.2 Spreadex: 450/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jack Floydd 0.11% 909 751 114
Jack Mcdonald 0.69% 145 101 5
James Allan 0.40% 250 501 0.20% 36 -0.2 Spreadex: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Meyer De Beco 0.64% 156 161 97
James Morrison 0.69% 145 126 21
Jamie Rutherford 1.20% 83 91 0.10% 97 -0.1 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jean Bekirian 0.19% 526 451 97
Jens Fahrbring 0.30% 333 301
Jens Kristian Thysted 0.08% 1250 1001 108
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.33% 303 326 73
Jiri Zuska 0.46% 217 251 0.10% 114 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joachim B. Hansen 0.02% 5000 1001 73
Joao Pereira 0.00% 10000 2501 97
John Axelsen 0.42% 238 126 73
John Gough 1.15% 87 41 52
Jonas Blixt 0.30% 333 276 73
Jonathan Caldwell 0.21% 476 501 120
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 1.45% 69 71 36
Joshua Berry 0.97% 103 51 73
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.09% 1111 601 11
Jovan Rebula 0.83% 120 101 17
Julien Quesne 1.15% 87 111 0.30% 69 -0.3 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Julien Sale 1.12% 89 71 3
Justin Walters 1.31% 76 86 0.10% 63 -0.1 PaddyPower: 80/1, 6pl, 1/4
Keanu Akina 0.02% 5000 2501 108
Kiet Van Der Weele 0.01% 10000 3001 108
Lars Van Meijel 0.83% 120 71 47
Lauri Ruuska 0.30% 333 276 36
Liam Nolan 0.32% 313 251 88
Lorenzo Scalise 0.46% 217 161 30
Lucas Vacarisas 0.50% 200 141 127
Luis Masaveu 0.90% 111 101 11
Lukas Nemecz 2.11% 47 41 5
Marc Hammer 0.61% 164 151 47
Martin Simonsen 0.47% 213 276 0.10% 73 -0.1 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon 0.29% 345 201 21
Matt Oshrine 0.38% 263 251 73
Matt Sharpstene 0.32% 313 201 34
Matthis Besard 1.41% 71 56 11
Max Kennedy 0.62% 161 111 108
Maxence Giboudot 0.57% 175 161 135
Maximilian Schmitt 0.11% 909 601 11
Maximilian Steinlechner 2.25% 44 26 97
Nathan Legendre 0.15% 667 551 73
Nick Bachem 0.09% 1111 501 60
Nick Carlson 0.96% 104 111 0.10% 69 -0.1 PaddyPower: 100/1, 6pl, 1/4
Nicolai Kristensen 0.27% 370 451 135
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 3.14% 32 21 17
Oliver Csanyi 0.00% 10000 4001 124
Oliver Jacobsson 0.15% 667 551 117
Palmer Jackson 0.62% 161 86 30
Pedro Figueiredo 1.97% 51 41 36
Pedro Lencart 0.01% 10000 1001 73
Per Langfors 0.71% 141 111 11
Philipp Katich 0.36% 278 201 36
Pierre Pellegrin 0.01% 10000 3001 127
Quim Vidal 0.66% 152 71 4
Renato Paratore 3.08% 32 26 21
Rhys Enoch 0.28% 357 301 10
Robin Petersson 0.40% 250 251 132
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 0.96% 104 61 52
Rocco Repetto 1.46% 68 41 5
Ronan Kleu 0.96% 104 71 73
Roope Kakko 0.18% 556 551 47
Ryan Lumsden 0.63% 159 126
Sam Jones 0.86% 116 67 52
Sam Locke 0.18% 556 451 21
Santiago Tarrio 0.25% 400 201 60
Saptak Talwar 0.53% 189 226 0.10% 72 -0.1 PaddyPower: 200/1, 6pl, 1/4
Sebastian Garcia 0.58% 172 126 5
Sebastien Gros 0.06% 1667 1001 108
Stefano Mazzoli 2.65% 38 23 9
Steven Brown 0.68% 147 226 0.20% 60 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tiger Christensen 0.44% 227 111 88
Tim Tillmanns 0.16% 625 551 66
Tobias Jonsson 1.88% 53 34 97
Toby Hunt 0.95% 105 141 0.20% 73 -0.2 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tom Lewis 0.95% 105 46 88
Tomas Bessa 0.26% 385 251 34
Tomas Gouveia 0.33% 303 301 88
Tyko Tuohimaa 0.00% 10000 4001 120
Vasco Alves 0.01% 10000 2501 66
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.30% 333 251 135
Victor Pastor 0.15% 667 2001 0.10% 135 -0.1 Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vince Van Veen 0.53% 189 151 88
Wilco Nienaber 0.98% 102 51 63
Will Enefer 0.95% 105 71 36
Yente Van Doren 0.07% 1429 2501 114

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


© Copyright 1999-2025 Tour-Tips.com.
All rights reserved.

This Week's Updates