Simulation Results: Italian Challenge Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 1.50% 67 61 19
Albert Boneta 1.58% 63 56 19
Albin Bergstrom 0.91% 110 101 50
Alejandro Aguilera 0.03% 3333 2501 122
Alessandro Nodari 0.03% 3333 751 79
Alexander Settemsdal 0.26% 385 401 132
Alfie Plant 0.77% 130 101 65
Alvaro Hernandez Cabezuela 0.05% 2000 1501 91
Anders Emil Ejlersen 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 33 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Andoni Etchenique 0.35% 286 301 65
Andrea Romano 0.10% 1000 351 28
Angus Flanagan 0.03% 3333 1001 33
Anton Albers 1.72% 58 51 79
Aron Zemmer 0.65% 154 141 43
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 0.59% 169 151 29
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.97% 103 111 0.10% 91 -0.1 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Benjamin Kedochim 0.06% 1667 751 141
Benjamin Rusch 0.93% 108 126 0.10% 107 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Borja Virto 1.28% 78 61 13
Bradley Bawden 0.24% 417 351 99
Brandon Kewalramani 0.20% 500 501 4
Bryce Easton 1.76% 57 51 99
Callum Farr 1.09% 92 71 8
Chase Hanna 0.56% 179 201 0.10% 79 -0.1 Spreadex: 200/1, 6pl, 1/5
Chris Paisley 0.13% 769 551 58
Christian Jacobsen 0.20% 500 451 60
Christofer Blomstrand 0.44% 227 201 25
Christofer Rahm 0.08% 1250 1001 2
Christoffer Bring 0.31% 323 226 141
Conor Gough 0.00% 10000 2501 65
Craig Howie 0.38% 263 151 129
Daan Huizing 0.69% 145 176 0.10% 54 -0.1 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Damien Perrier 0.17% 588 751 99
Daniel Rodrigues 0.34% 294 126 13
Daniel Young 2.10% 48 26 65
David Horsey 1.25% 80 41 8
Dermot Mcelroy 0.10% 1000 751 99
Eddie Pepperell 1.90% 53 34 54
Enrico Di Nitto 0.18% 556 376 99
Euan Walker 1.69% 59 51 91
Felix Mory 1.57% 64 36 115
Filip Mruzek 0.37% 270 351 0.10% 43 -0.1 Unibet: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Filippo Celli 2.56% 39 23 107
Filippo Ponzano 0.00% 10000 501 113
Flavio Michetti 0.08% 1250 551 132
Gabriel Morgan 0.20% 500 451 65
George Bloor 0.62% 161 131 29
George Mason 0.12% 833 401 141
Giovanni Binaghi 0.33% 303 2001 0.30% 50 -0.3 Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Giovanni Manzoni 0.00% 10000 1001 140
Gregor Graham 0.50% 200 151 33
Gustav Frimodt 0.27% 370 326 132
Haraldur Magnus 0.74% 135 141 122
Hayden Hopewell 0.12% 833 601 132
Hurly Long 1.06% 94 101 0.10% 115 -0.1 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
J.C. Ritchie 3.11% 32 19 1
Jack Davidson 0.43% 233 251 122
Jack Floydd 0.09% 1111 1001 43
Jack Mcdonald 1.25% 80 51 29
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa 0.89% 112 71 25
James Allan 0.39% 256 276 43
James Meyer De Beco 0.70% 143 201 0.20% 13 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Morrison 0.97% 103 71 79
Jamie Rutherford 1.58% 63 67 0.10% 65 -0.1 Bet365: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
Javier Barcos Garbayo 0.15% 667 301 122
Jeppe Kristian Andersen 0.79% 127 61 7
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.28% 357 351 65
Jiri Zuska 0.28% 357 301 54
John Axelsen 0.60% 167 126 79
John Gough 1.12% 89 51 136
Jonas Blixt 0.36% 278 251 79
Jonathan Caldwell 0.22% 455 501 65
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 1.50% 67 67 129
Jorge Maicas 0.06% 1667 1001 91
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.28% 357 251 99
Jovan Rebula 1.16% 86 76 19
Justin Walters 1.20% 83 91 0.10% 33 -0.1 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Keanu Akina 0.02% 5000 2501 79
Kiet Van Der Weele 0.01% 10000 3001 136
Lars Van Der Vight 0.27% 370 251 4
Lars Van Meijel 0.88% 114 71 8
Lauri Ruuska 0.32% 313 226 115
Liam Nolan 0.36% 278 251 115
Lorenzo Scalise 0.86% 116 76 11
Luca Memeo 0.11% 909 501 65
Lucas Fallotico 0.04% 2500 751 79
Lucas Vacarisas 0.54% 185 176 58
Ludovico Addabbo 0.03% 3333 751 99
Luis Masaveu 1.58% 63 56 65
Lukas Nemecz 2.58% 39 23 25
Manfredi Manica 0.15% 667 351 115
Marc Hammer 0.94% 106 151 0.30% 65 -0.3 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marc Warren 0.73% 137 101 54
Martin Simonsen 0.46% 217 276 0.10% 19 -0.1 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Oshrine 0.32% 313 276 43
Matt Sharpstene 0.43% 233 201 91
Matthis Besard 1.94% 52 36 13
Max Kennedy 0.55% 182 126 99
Maxence Giboudot 0.62% 161 201 0.10% 63 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maximilian Steinlechner 1.77% 56 29 65
Michele Ferrero 0.00% 10000 601 107
Michele Ortolani 0.27% 370 351 40
Nathan Cossement 0.08% 1250 551 63
Nathan Legendre 0.16% 625 501 65
Nicholas Infanti 0.45% 222 181 40
Nick Bachem 0.22% 455 276 122
Oliver Farr 0.21% 476 351 113
Oliver Gillberg 0.26% 385 276 19
Palmer Jackson 0.88% 114 86 115
Pedro Figueiredo 1.78% 56 46 107
Per Langfors 1.43% 70 56 29
Philipp Katich 0.26% 385 251 33
Quim Vidal 2.22% 45 26 91
Renato Paratore 2.55% 39 23 122
Rhys Enoch 0.60% 167 176 107
Robert Moran 0.16% 625 501 136
Robin Petersson 0.26% 385 351 2
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 1.45% 69 51 79
Rocco Repetto 2.20% 45 29 13
Romain Wattel 0.57% 175 141 91
Ronan Kleu 0.92% 109 101 91
Roope Kakko 0.25% 400 351 79
Santiago Tarrio 0.39% 256 201 40
Sebastian Garcia 1.11% 90 71 33
Sebastian Vida 0.00% 10000 4001 139
Sebastien Gros 0.10% 1000 1501 65
Stefano Mazzoli 3.89% 26 23 79
Steven Brown 0.80% 125 131 4
Stuart Manley 0.39% 256 351 0.10% 62 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tiger Christensen 0.47% 213 141 43
Tobias Jonsson 1.67% 60 46 19
Toby Hunt 0.95% 105 126 0.20% 79 -0.2 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tom Lewis 0.96% 104 51 13
Tomas Bessa 0.54% 185 226 0.10% 115 -0.1 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tomas Gouveia 0.29% 345 301 43
Velten Meyer 0.11% 909 501 129
Victor Garcia Broto 0.04% 2500 2501 50
Victor Pastor 0.14% 714 2501 0.10% 33 -0.1 Bet365: 2500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vince Van Veen 0.39% 256 201 107
Wilco Nienaber 1.06% 94 76
Will Enefer 1.70% 59 51 11
Will Hopkins 0.24% 417 226 122
Wouter De Vries 0.12% 833 501 50
Yente Van Doren 0.06% 1667 3001 61

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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