Simulation Results: Italian Challenge Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Wallin	0.79%	127	61		16
Alejandro Aguilera	0.03%	3333	751		85
Alessandro Nodari	0.14%	714	301		9
Alex Goff	1.53%	65	51		121
Alexander Knappe	0.27%	370	151		30
Alfie Plant	0.52%	192	81		16
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.31%	323	501	0.10%	13	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrea Romano	0.34%	294	81		85
Andrew Wilson	2.82%	35	21		9
Anton Albers	0.94%	106	76		130
Arjun Prasad	0.16%	625	276		110
Aron Zemmer	1.14%	88	41		85
Asier Aguirre Izcue	0.06%	1667	401		85
Aymeric Laussot	0.05%	2000	501		70
Baard Skogen	1.15%	87	46		100
Bailey Gill	0.04%	2500	501		148
Barclay Brown	0.19%	526			3
Bastien Amat	0.69%	145	126		133
Benjamin Hebert	1.23%	81	61		41
Benjamin Rusch	0.51%	196	251	0.10%	60	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bjorn Akesson	0.59%	169	111		23
Borja Virto	0.97%	103	71		70
Callan Barrow	0.25%	400	141		70
Callum Farr	1.07%	93	61		110
Calum Fyfe	0.97%	103	36		4
Canon Claycomb	0.38%	263	151		100
Charles Huntzinger	0.95%	105	176	0.40%	41	-0.4	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlie Forster	2.14%	47	29		85
Charlie Thornton	0.03%	3333	1251		63
Chris Wood	0.43%	233	81		1
Christian Braunig	0.08%	1250	276		152
Christian Jacobsen	0.22%	455	251		70
Christofer Blomstrand	1.40%	71	41		85
Christofer Rahm	0.53%	189	151		85
Christoffer Bring	0.04%	2500	351		121
Christoph Bleier	0.47%	213	101		127
Clay Seeber	0.02%	5000			85
Clement Guichard	0.10%	1000	301		100
Collin Adams	0.55%	182	301	0.20%	110	-0.2	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Conor Gough	0.05%	2000	601		110
Conor Purcell	1.46%	68	51		152
Corey Shaun	0.20%	500	201		121
Daan Huizing	0.36%	278	151		100
Danny List	0.66%	152	111
David Horsey	2.42%	41	26		16
Deon Germishuys	1.49%	67	51		23
Dominic Clemons	0.05%	2000	351		155
Fabius Will Bradhering	0.04%	2500	601		121
Filip Mruzek	0.33%	303	176		63
Filippo Bergamaschi	0.12%	833	451		100
Flavio Michetti	0.09%	1111	201		41
Frank Kennedy	0.20%	500	276		70
Gary Hurley	1.44%	69	91	0.30%	85	-0.3	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gordan Brixi	0.01%	10000	1001		127
Gregor Graham	1.19%	84	67		30
Haider Hussain	0.11%	909	501		110
Hamish Brown	1.88%	53	26		16
Haraldur Magnus	0.40%	250	161		41
Harley Smith	0.05%	2000	67		141
Henric Sturehed	0.03%	3333	351		52
Jack Floydd	0.05%	2000	451		30
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.07%	1429	601		30
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa	0.68%	147	46		26
James Meyer De Beco	0.44%	227	151		9
James Sugrue	0.10%	1000	276		52
Jamie Rutherford	2.02%	50	34		110
Jan Schneider	0.61%	164	101		55
Jannik De Bruyn	2.80%	36	23		30
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.15%	667	251		121
Javier Calles Roman	0.34%	294	226		13
Jean Bekirian	0.25%	400	226		20
Jeppe Kristian Andersen	1.19%	84	71		41
Jeremy Freiburghaus	0.79%	127	151	0.10%	60	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jerry Ji	0.32%	313	141		154
Jhared Hack	3.19%	31	101	2.20%	9	-2.2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Gough	0.18%	556			41
John-Ross Galbraith	0.01%	10000	751		85
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.79%	127	126		133
Juan Salama	0.13%	769	1001		30
Julien Brun	0.91%	110	41		41
Julien Quesne	0.78%	128	81		127
Julien Sale	2.32%	43	29		30
Kieran Cantley	0.05%	2000	401		55
Kim Koivu	0.21%	476	276		141
Kris Kim	0.03%	3333	351		85
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.01%	10000	601		110
Kristian Krogh Johannessen	1.20%	83	34		30
Lars Van Der Vight	0.29%	345	126		41
Lars Van Meijel	1.35%	74	34		130
Leon Acikalin	0.17%	588	1251	0.10%	100	-0.1	Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Liam Johnston	0.02%	5000	451		23
Liam Nolan	0.40%	250	141		110
Linus Lang	0.07%	1429	501		110
Lorenzo Scalise	1.54%	65	29		70
Luca Galliano	0.06%	1667	351		133
Luca Memeo	0.08%	1250	451		41
Lucas Fallotico	0.02%	5000	1251		141
Lucas Vacarisas	0.52%	192	151		41
Ludovico Addabbo	0.08%	1250	401		100
Lukas Nemecz	3.11%	32	26		70
M.J. Viljoen	0.96%	104	67		55
Manfredi Manica	0.04%	2500	751		52
Marc Warren	0.97%	103	67		70
Mario Galiano Aguilar	0.28%	357	201		69
Mark Power	1.30%	77	56		121
Martin Eriksson	0.20%	500	111		67
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon	0.24%	417	276		30
Matt Gilchrest	0.29%	345	351		133
Matteo Cristoni	0.45%	222	251	0.10%	20	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthias Schwab	0.25%	400	176		60
Matthis Besard	2.46%	41	29		30
Mattias Varjun	0.01%	10000	501		141
Max Kennedy	0.81%	123	56		100
Maxence Giboudot	0.93%	108	51		20
Maximilien Sturdza	0.02%	5000	1001		148
Michael Hirmer	0.35%	286	176		85
Nick Bachem	0.19%	526	401		85
Nick Carlson	1.04%	96	81		30
Oliver Gillberg	1.33%	75	61		133
Pablo Alperi Lopez	0.39%	256	176		70
Palmer Jackson	0.32%	313			148
Pedro Figueiredo	1.67%	60	36		4
Per Langfors	1.18%	85	41		70
Philipp Katich	0.32%	313	111		141
Pierre Pineau	0.56%	179	126		55
Rasmus Holmberg	0.05%	2000	1001		148
Robert Foley	0.08%	1250	451		133
Robert Moran	0.25%	400	276		85
Robin Petersson	0.44%	227	91		70
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	1.13%	88	101	0.10%	55	-0.1	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ronan Kleu	0.42%	238	151		26
Ronan Mullarney	0.16%	625	226		26
Ryan Van Velzen	0.94%	106	81		13
Sam Jones	0.67%	149	81		141
Sam Locke	0.22%	455	226		133
Saptak Talwar	1.85%	54	91	0.80%	110	-0.8	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Friedrichsen	1.47%	68	56		8
Soren Broholt Lind	0.12%	833	451		41
Steven Brown	0.90%	111	141	0.20%	148	-0.2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tadeas Tetak	0.47%	213	151		85
Taylor Carter	0.05%	2000	751		110
Tiger Christensen	0.55%	182	176		63
Tobias Eden	0.16%	625	251		70
Tom Lewis	1.50%	67	36		70
Tomas Gouveia	0.26%	385	276		2
Varun Chopra	0.63%	159	251	0.20%	100	-0.2	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vasco Alves	0.03%	3333	1001		133
Victor Bjorlow	0.12%	833	251		67
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.13%	769	351		63
Wil Besseling	0.77%	130	126		70
Wilco Nienaber	1.94%	52	23		70
Will Enefer	3.29%	30	23		4
Will Hopkins	0.23%	435	276		100
Will Porter	0.20%	500	226		4
William Vold	0.01%	10000	1501		141
Wouter De Vries	0.49%	204	111		26

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jhared Hack	3.19%	31	101	2.20%	9	-2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Saptak Talwar	1.85%	54	91	0.80%	110	-2	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Charles Huntzinger	0.95%	105	176	0.40%	41	-2	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.