Simulation Results: Irish Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 2.27% 44 41 22
Alejandro Aguilera 0.06% 1667 601 80
Alessandro Noseda 0.03% 3333 1001 124
Alex Maguire 0.48% 208 111 29
Alfie Plant 1.09% 92 91 105
Alvaro Hernandez Cabezuela 0.17% 588 401 133
Alvaro Quiros 0.52% 192 301 0.20% 60 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andoni Etchenique 0.11% 909 601 29
Andrea Romano 0.12% 833 301 115
Andrew Garner 0.00% 10000 2501 90
Anton Albers 0.62% 161 126 90
Aron Zemmer 0.88% 114 151 0.20% 37 -0.2 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ashley Chesters 1.21% 83 71 71
Aydan Verdonk 0.02% 5000 1501 75
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 0.96% 104 67 124
Ben Brown 0.02% 5000 601 141
Ben Stow 0.77% 130 81 50
Benjamin Kedochim 0.08% 1250 751 105
Benjamin Rusch 1.15% 87 91 0.10% 5 0.135 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Borja Virto 1.16% 86 61 50
Bradley Bawden 0.60% 167 226 0.20% 22 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Kewalramani 0.16% 625 401 37
Bryce Easton 2.33% 43 41 50
Callan Barrow 0.59% 169 126 29
Calum Fyfe 0.87% 115 67 37
Carlos Pigem 0.25% 400 226 90
Chase Hanna 0.46% 217 251 0.10% 60 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Paisley 0.40% 250 201 60
Chris Wood 1.01% 99 126 0.20% 19 -0.2 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christian Jacobsen 0.55% 182 126 105
Christofer Rahm 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 115 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christoffer Bring 0.86% 116 81 71
Christopher White 0.00% 10000 2001 150
Clement Charmasson 1.59% 63 51 22
Conor Gough 0.00% 10000 401 155
Craig Howie 0.75% 133 126 10
Curtis Knipes 0.09% 1111 351 80
Damien Perrier 0.56% 179 226 0.10% 50 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Mulligan 0.02% 5000 1501 124
Daniel Van Tonder 0.77% 130 46 146
David Boote 0.23% 435 22
David Langley 1.19% 84 151 0.50% 79 -0.5 William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Dermot Mcelroy 0.28% 357 201 115
Eduard Rousaud 0.18% 556 226 115
Enrico Di Nitto 0.20% 500 751 0.10% 115 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Felix Mory 1.50% 67 56 19
Filip Mruzek 1.30% 77 46 75
Francisco Matos Coelho 0.00% 10000 105
Gabriel Morgan 0.43% 233 301 0.10% 14 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gary King 0.13% 769 501 124
George Bloor 0.81% 123 81 50
George Mason 0.31% 323 501 0.10% 80 -0.1 VBet: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gregor Graham 0.44% 227 151 66
Gudmundur Kristjansson 0.09% 1111 751 90
Gustav Frimodt 0.05% 2000 401 5
Haider Hussain 0.06% 1667 1001 115
Haraldur Magnus 0.21% 476 501 14
Hayden Hopewell 0.35% 286 301 80
Hugo Townsend 1.20% 83 101 0.20% 12 -0.2 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hurly Long 1.52% 66 41 133
Jack Davidson 0.69% 145 151 124
Jack Floydd 0.25% 400 401 141
Jack Madden 0.05% 2000 501 60
Jack Mcdonald 1.36% 74 46 43
James Allan 0.55% 182 226 0.10% 80 -0.1 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Meyer De Beco 0.73% 137 176 0.20% 115 -0.2 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Javier Barcos Garbayo 0.27% 370 126 133
Javier Calles Roman 0.08% 1250 501 50
Javier Sainz 0.72% 139 126 105
Jens Kristian Thysted 0.26% 385 401 90
Jeppe Kristian Andersen 0.83% 120 101 3
Jiri Zuska 0.48% 208 176 37
John Axelsen 1.06% 94 41 29
John Gough 1.17% 85 29 43
John Henry 0.14% 714 401 152
John Murphy 0.03% 3333 501 80
John-Ross Galbraith 0.07% 1429 501 90
Jonathan Caldwell 0.40% 250 251 66
Joseba Torres 1.25% 80 201 0.80% 90 -0.8 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joshua Berry 2.93% 34 19 90
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.27% 370 401 105
Julian Perico 1.49% 67 67 90
Julien Quesne 2.89% 35 29 105
Julien Sale 1.19% 84 67 14
Kiet Van Der Weele 0.02% 5000 1501 133
Kris Kim 0.01% 10000 351 90
Lars Van Meijel 1.22% 82 51 22
Lauri Ruuska 0.47% 213 176 124
Lee Slattery 0.31% 323 351 66
Liam Grehan 0.10% 1000 201 43
Liam Johnston 0.33% 303 251 50
Liam Nolan 0.25% 400 101 19
Lorenzo Scalise 1.09% 92 71 71
Lucas Vacarisas 0.90% 111 151 0.20% 14 -0.2 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luis Masaveu 1.56% 64 31 50
Marc Hammer 1.21% 83 71 37
Mark Power 0.23% 435 151 80
Martin Obtmeier 0.03% 3333 1001 90
Martin Simonsen 0.94% 106 141 0.20% 43 -0.2 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon 0.60% 167 101 10
Matt Oshrine 0.60% 167 226 0.20% 75 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matt Sharpstene 0.20% 500 501 37
Matthew Cheung 0.92% 109 111 78
Max Kennedy 1.40% 71 41 60
Maxence Giboudot 1.37% 73 86 0.20% 29 -0.2 Spreadex: 85/1, 6pl, 1/5
Maximilian Jelinek 0.03% 3333 601 105
Maximilian Schmitt 0.28% 357 401 90
Maximilien Sturdza 0.03% 3333 751 133
Michael Hirmer 1.20% 83 91 0.10% 50 -0.1 Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nathan Legendre 0.21% 476 401 43
Nicholas Infanti 0.34% 294 351 0.10% 66 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nick Carlson 2.27% 44 51 0.30% 12 -0.3 Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 2.71% 37 34 1
Oliver Farr 0.41% 244 201 29
Oliver Gillberg 0.54% 185 151 141
Paul Mcbride 0.10% 1000 401 5
Pedro Figueiredo 0.75% 133 126 22
Pedro Lencart 0.07% 1429 601 124
Per Langfors 0.88% 114 86 105
Peter Launer Baek 0.23% 435 351 50
Philipp Katich 0.59% 169 101 43
Quim Vidal 1.27% 79 51 133
Rhys Enoch 0.51% 196 176 115
Robert Moran 0.06% 1667 301 4
Robin Roussel 0.07% 1429 351 71
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 2.45% 41 31 29
Rocco Repetto 2.00% 50 41 43
Romain Wattel 0.82% 122 141 0.10% 141 -0.1 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ronan Kleu 0.41% 244 251 2
Ronan Mullarney 0.34% 294 151 152
Roope Kakko 0.22% 455 301 124
Sam Jones 1.00% 100 56 115
Sam Locke 0.16% 625 501 60
Saptak Talwar 0.50% 200 301 0.20% 14 -0.2 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastien Gros 0.16% 625 501 80
Stefano Mazzoli 1.99% 50 41 5
Stuart Manley 1.16% 86 126 0.40% Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Thomas Power Horan 0.13% 769 751 146
Tiger Christensen 1.01% 99 56 90
Tim Tillmanns 0.76% 132 56 141
Toby Hunt 0.55% 182 201 0.10% 119 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Lewis 2.27% 44 23 90
Tom Shadbolt 0.32% 313 201 133
Tomas Bessa 0.13% 769 501 66
Tomas Gouveia 0.40% 250 201 105
Tyko Tuohimaa 0.00% 10000 2001 150
Velten Meyer 0.07% 1429 401 80
Victor Garcia Broto 0.04% 2500 751 133
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.85% 118 71 29
Vince Van Veen 0.66% 152 151 80
Will Enefer 1.21% 83 46 5
Will Hopkins 0.47% 213 201 22
Will Nimmo 0.00% 10000 3001 156
Will Porter 0.16% 625 351 90
Yannick Beeli 0.00% 10000 3001 152
Yente Van Doren 0.00% 10000 601 148

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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