Simulation Results: Interwetten Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Blomme	1.72%	58	67	0.20%	62	-0.2	Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Adam Wallin	1.97%	51	26		6
Albert Boneta	1.01%	99	67		107
Alex Goff	2.20%	45	41		13
Alexander Knappe	0.37%	270	201		62
Andoni Etchenique	0.26%	385			95
Andrea Romano	0.32%	313	81		7
Anton Albers	1.03%	97	67		95
Antonio Hortal	0.00%	10000	751		139
Aron Zemmer	1.09%	92	91		35
Asier Aguirre	0.09%	1111	1001		53
Aymeric Laussot	0.29%	345	301		152
Baard Skogen	0.87%	115	67		24
Bailey Gill	0.14%	714	401		62
Barclay Brown	0.67%	149	61		28
Bastien Amat	0.47%	213	226		130
Benjamin Follett-Smith	1.03%	97	81		127
Benjamin Rusch	0.25%	400	201		95
Bjorn Akesson	0.88%	114	91		118
Borja Virto	0.94%	106	86		28
Bradley Bawden	0.37%	270	351	0.10%	3	3.45	Boyle Sports: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Bryce Easton	1.74%	57	41		79
Calum Fyfe	1.26%	79	41		13
Canon Claycomb	0.50%	200	151		107
Cedric Gugler	0.13%	769	351		127
Charlie Forster	0.98%	102	71		17
Chase Hanna	0.69%	145			35
Christian Braunig	0.16%	625	351		24
Christian Jacobsen	0.32%	313	251		152
Christofer Blomstrand	1.31%	76	51		42
Christofer Rahm	0.10%	1000	501		53
Christoffer Bring	0.07%	1429	601		150
Christoph Bleier	0.13%	769	501		95
Clay Seeber	0.04%	2500	1251		127
Clement Guichard	0.16%	625	351		42
Daniel Gale	0.43%	233	176		62
David Horsey	1.28%	78	51		42
Dennis Fuchs	0.00%	10000	2001		135
Dimitrios Papadatos	0.18%	556			107
Dominic Clemons	0.00%	10000	1251		147
Fabian Fischer	0.00%	10000	2501		118
Fabian Lang	0.00%	10000	1251		149
Fabius Will Bradhering	0.02%	5000	1501		147
Filip Mruzek	0.82%	122	91		1
Florian Schweighofer	0.01%	10000	1501		58
Frank Kennedy	0.90%	111	141	0.20%	79	-0.2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gary Hurley	0.69%	145	111		79
George Bloor	1.00%	100	86		56
Gordan Brixi	0.01%	10000	2001		79
Gregor Graham	0.80%	125	101		95
Hamish Brown	2.71%	37	21		13
Haraldur Magnus	0.41%	244	301	0.10%	62	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Haydn Barron	2.27%	44	29		152
Hunter Logan	0.27%	370	201		130
Hurly Long	0.27%	370	301		79
Jack Davidson	1.20%	83	56		139
Jack Floydd	0.09%	1111	601		28
Jack Hawksby	0.09%	1111	501		46
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.20%	500	301		62
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa	0.47%	213	141		12
Jake Ayres	0.03%	3333	1001		143
Jake Mcgoldrick	0.26%	385	401		35
Jakob Lotschak	0.06%	1667	1251		107
James Sugrue	0.09%	1111	351		118
Jan Schneider	0.52%	192	151		152
Jannik De Bruyn	1.42%	70	41		79
Jean Bekirian	0.72%	139	101		7
Jeppe Kristian Andersen	0.84%	119	91		13
Jeremy Freiburghaus	0.10%	1000	351		62
Jerry Ji	0.08%	1250	351		139
Jhared Hack	2.93%	34	36	0.20%	17	-0.2	Spreadex: 35/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jiri Zuska	0.31%	323	201		17
Joel Moscatel	0.44%	227	176		28
John Axelsen	0.22%	455	301		62
John-Ross Galbraith	0.13%	769	401		61
Joseba Torres	0.63%	159	401	0.40%	79	-0.4	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Juan Salama Monsalve	0.23%	435	351		53
Julian Perico	2.21%	45	34		5
Julien Brun	1.39%	72	51		107
Julien Quesne	0.48%	208	251	0.10%	7	-0.1	Boyle Sports: 250/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kim Koivu	0.09%	1111	501		56
Kristian Krogh Johannessen	1.33%	75	41		62
Lars Van Der Vight	1.21%	83	81		35
Lars Van Meijel	0.80%	125	67		28
Lenny Koch	0.00%	10000	2501		146
Leon Acikalin	0.02%	5000	2001		145
Liam Nolan	1.26%	79	61		95
Linus Lang	0.06%	1667	1001		7
Logan Perkins	0.09%	1111	1251		62
Lorenzo Scalise	1.16%	86	81		46
Louis Albertse	1.16%	86	67		2
Lukas Boandl	0.49%	204	401	0.20%	135	-0.2	Ladbrokes: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lukas Nemecz	1.62%	62	46		62
Martin Leth Simonsen	2.03%	49	41		95
Martin Vorster	1.62%	62	36		95
Matias Honkala	0.06%	1667	401		118
Matt Gilchrest	0.31%	323	351		137
Matteo Cristoni	1.19%	84	67		46
Matthew Southgate	2.79%	36	34		95
Matthias Schwab	0.32%	313	226		62
Matthis Besard	0.80%	125	61		79
Max Kennedy	0.45%	222	101		28
Maxence Giboudot	1.71%	58	51		24
Maximilian Jelinek	0.01%	10000	2001		79
Maximilian Kieffer	0.67%	149	81		17
Michael Hirmer	0.36%	278	301		58
Michal Bargenda	0.00%	10000	2501		150
Morgan Jackson	0.00%	10000	1251		118
Moritz Russling	0.00%	10000	2501		24
Nick Bachem	0.24%	417	451		130
Nick Carlson	0.77%	130	111		35
Nikolas Tyminski	0.00%	10000	2001		142
Oliver Gillberg	0.29%	345	201		17
Owen Edwards	0.09%	1111	751		79
Palmer Jackson	0.36%	278	301		62
Per Langfors	0.66%	152	81		35
Philipp Katich	0.24%	417	301		58
Pierre Pineau	0.34%	294	251		46
Quinnton Croker	0.14%	714	301		79
Robert Dinwiddie	0.07%	1429	351		79
Robin Petersson	0.53%	189	151		62
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.86%	116	101		107
Robin Williams	1.63%	61	51		28
Ronan Kleu	0.50%	200	151		107
Ronan Mullarney	0.13%	769	351		107
Rory Franssen	0.04%	2500	751		62
Ross Mcgowan	0.03%	3333	301		79
Ryan Brooks	0.37%	270	251		3
Ryan Van Velzen	1.86%	54	41		46
Sam Hutsby	0.83%	120	91		107
Sam Jones	0.57%	175	81		107
Santiago Tarrio	0.89%	112	61		35
Saptak Talwar	0.53%	189	276	0.20%	17	-0.2	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sebastian Friedrichsen	1.50%	67	46		62
Sebastien Gros	0.06%	1667	751		137
Simon Zach	0.01%	10000	1251		152
Soren Broholt Lind	0.08%	1250	1001		107
Stephan Csongei	0.00%	10000	1501		130
Steven Brown	0.35%	286	201		95
Tadeas Tetak	1.08%	93	81		7
Tapio Pulkkanen	2.22%	45	29		17
Taylor Carter	0.11%	909	1251		42
Tiger Christensen	0.35%	286	276		46
Tim Hofmann	0.00%	10000	3001		118
Timon Baltl	0.04%	2500	751		95
Tobias Eden	0.83%	120	101		130
Tom Lewis	1.08%	93	56		79
Tom Sloman	0.92%	109	151	0.30%	143	-0.3	William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tomas Gouveia	0.97%	103	151	0.30%	118	-0.3	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Varun Chopra	0.18%	556	451		118
Veer Ahlawat	1.72%	58	61	0.10%	79	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wil Besseling	1.06%	94	71		118
Will Enefer	2.11%	47	34		79
Will Hopkins	0.19%	526	401		62
Will Porter	0.40%	250	226		46
Wouter De Vries	0.44%	227	151		95

					Result	P/L	E/W Play

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Joseba Torres	0.63%	159	401	0.40%	79	-2	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Tom Sloman	0.92%	109	151	0.30%	143	-2	William Hill: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Tomas Gouveia	0.97%	103	151	0.30%	118	-2	Boyle Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.