Simulation Results: Hangzhou Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 1.66% 60 41 37
Albert Boneta 1.68% 60 46 26
Albin Bergstrom 1.03% 97 81 4
Alfie Plant 0.54% 185 181 89
Anders Emil Ejlersen 0.17% 588 501 108
Anton Albers 1.70% 59 41 7
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 0.62% 161 126 19
Benjamin Rusch 0.42% 238 276 0.10% 104 -0.1 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bo Jin 0.00% 10000 1501 37
Borja Virto 1.27% 79 56 14
Bowen Chai 0.25% 400 301 12
Bryce Easton 1.28% 78 81 19
Callan Barrow 0.65% 154 181 0.10% 45 -0.1 Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Calum Fyfe 1.08% 93 81 7
Charles Wang 0.97% 103 51 45
Christofer Rahm 0.21% 476 501 89
Clement Charmasson 0.99% 101 111 0.10% 7 -0.1 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Daniel Young 1.86% 54 31 19
Danny List 0.73% 137 201 0.20% 37 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Horsey 1.17% 85 111 0.30% 26 -0.3 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Law 3.16% 32 21 70
Davis Bryant 3.41% 29 26 14
Enhua Liu 0.06% 1667 601 63
Euan Walker 2.07% 48 36 31
Felix Mory 2.62% 38 34 7
Filip Mruzek 0.39% 256 201 70
Filippo Celli 1.32% 76 34 14
Gen Nagai 0.04% 2500 2501 97
George Worrall 0.02% 5000 3001 65
Gregory Foo 0.06% 1667 1001 55
Haizhao Tang 0.06% 1667 751 70
Haraldur Magnus 0.33% 303 351 45
Hugo Townsend 1.56% 64 51 19
Hurly Long 0.82% 122 81 31
Isaac Lam 0.22% 455 251 97
J.C. Ritchie 3.91% 26 17 19
Jake Vincent 0.50% 200 401 0.30% 97 -0.3 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Meyer De Beco 0.64% 156 81 108
James Morrison 0.81% 123 126 31
Jamie Rutherford 0.98% 102 111 0.10% 97 -0.1 PaddyPower: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jan Schneider 0.72% 139 151 0.10% 37 -0.1 BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jeff Burton 0.02% 5000 2001 70
Jeppe Kristian Andersen 1.11% 90 61 89
Jicheng Fan 0.03% 3333 1251 93
John Gough 0.47% 213 181 54
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 0.52% 192 101 104
Joshua Berry 0.64% 156 81 70
Jovan Rebula 2.08% 48 51 0.10% 58 -0.1 BetVictor: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julian Perico 0.92% 109 126 0.10% 2 1.2 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Julien Quesne 0.49% 204 351 0.20% 37 -0.2 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julien Sale 1.78% 56 51 37
Junghyun Um 0.28% 357 401 68
Kakeru Ozeki 0.11% 909 501 49
Kazuki Suzuki 0.16% 625 501 70
Kento Nakai 0.00% 10000 4001 116
Kuang Yang 0.10% 1000 501 65
Lars Van Meijel 2.25% 44 26 70
Lawrence Ting 0.18% 556 501 58
Leon D'Souza 0.04% 2500 2501 97
Liam Nolan 0.31% 323 276 70
Linqiang Li 0.25% 400 401 55
Lloyd Jefferson Go 0.12% 833 501 70
Lucas Vacarisas 0.30% 333 251 70
Lukas Nemecz 2.36% 42 41 4
Malcolm Ting 0.02% 5000 2001 85
Matthis Besard 1.93% 52 29 45
Max Kennedy 0.36% 278 276 49
Maxence Giboudot 0.51% 196 201 85
Maximilian Steinlechner 3.00% 33 19 2
Ming Pang 0.00% 10000 3001 108
Nick Carlson 1.10% 91 101 0.10% 70 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 3.25% 31 19 7
Palmer Jackson 0.28% 357 201 26
Pedro Figueiredo 1.55% 65 71 0.10% 49 -0.1 PaddyPower: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Per Langfors 1.92% 52 41 12
Quim Vidal 0.93% 108 71 112
Renato Paratore 3.03% 33 23 43
Robin Petersson 0.65% 154 126 85
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 1.08% 93 67 14
Rocco Repetto 3.11% 32 23 70
Ronan Kleu 0.88% 114 86 26
Ryan Ang 0.51% 196 226 0.10% 49 -0.1 Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryuei Sugita 0.01% 10000 1501 93
Ryugo Matsubara 0.04% 2500 1251 117
Sam Jones 0.55% 182 101 89
Santiago Tarrio 0.48% 208 226 93
Sebastian Garcia 1.77% 56 36 1
Senshou Cao 0.34% 294 151 97
Shawn Lu 0.41% 244 401 0.20% 43 -0.2 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shinichi Mizuno 0.11% 909 1501 63
Stefano Mazzoli 3.48% 29 21 19
Takumi Hayashi 0.02% 5000 2001 115
Tao Deng 0.07% 1429 501 61
Thomas Lim 0.06% 1667 1501 70
Tobias Jonsson 2.79% 36 23 31
Tom Lewis 1.21% 83 51 19
Tse-Yu Chang 0.01% 10000 1251 65
Tu-Xuan Wu 0.02% 5000 1501 118
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.20% 500 351 31
Victor Pastor 0.17% 588 751 6
Vince Van Veen 0.29% 345 251 113
Wang Ngai Shen 0.03% 3333 1001 97
Wilco Nienaber 1.51% 66 41 26
Will Enefer 1.49% 67 51 31
Xiang Fang 0.00% 10000 4001 114
Xinjun Zhang 0.24% 417 501 69
Xirong Cheng 0.16% 625 501 118
Xuewen Luo 0.19% 526
Yang Tong 0.20% 500 751 0.10% 61 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yanhan Zhou 3.19% 31 19 14
Yi-Nong Yang 0.01% 10000 1501 104
Yi-Tseng Huang 0.13% 769 1001 70
Yu Fang 0.03% 3333 1501 49
Yue Liu 0.04% 2500 501 57
Yuze Zhang 0.02% 5000 601 104
Zeyu Jing 0.01% 10000 2001 111
Zi Wang 0.12% 833 351 70
Zi-Han She 0.02% 5000 1501 58
Zihao Chen (Sept1996) 0.03% 3333 1001 93
Zijie Huang 0.02% 5000 1001 85

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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