Simulation Results: Hainan Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 1.92% 52 41 20
Albert Boneta 1.92% 52 41 43
Albin Bergstrom 0.87% 115 121 15
Alfie Plant 0.76% 132 151 0.10% 56 -0.1 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anders Emil Ejlersen 0.30% 333 376 57
Anton Albers 1.29% 78 56 15
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 0.88% 114 101 97
Benjamin Rusch 0.45% 222 181 84
Borja Virto 1.78% 56 51 63
Bowen Chai 0.34% 294 226 84
Bryce Easton 0.99% 101 111 0.10% 76 -0.1 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Callan Barrow 0.73% 137 121 76
Calum Fyfe 1.35% 74 76 63
Charles Wang 0.77% 130 71 20
Chenyou Nan 0.01% 10000 1501 116
Christofer Rahm 0.27% 370 551 0.10% 63 -0.1 Unibet: 550/1, 5pl, 1/4
Clement Charmasson 0.79% 127 121 31
Daniel Young 3.34% 30 21 93
Danny List 0.66% 152 151 43
David Horsey 1.46% 68 91 0.40% 105 -0.4 Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
David Law 3.71% 27 18 20
Davis Bryant 2.65% 38 34 13
Enhua Liu 0.07% 1429 1001 105
Euan Walker 0.97% 103 67 15
Felix Mory 1.05% 95 81 3
Filip Mruzek 0.51% 196 151 58
Filippo Celli 1.36% 74 31 38
Gen Nagai 0.03% 3333 2001 63
Geon Hwang 0.00% 10000 1001 115
George Worrall 0.01% 10000 2501 63
Gregory Foo 0.12% 833 751 84
Haizhao Tang 0.09% 1111 701 63
Han Xue 0.03% 3333 1501 97
Haraldur Magnus 0.43% 233 351 0.10% 76 -0.1 Unibet: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hongfu Wu 0.02% 5000 1501 63
Hugo Townsend 1.60% 63 51 38
Huilin Zhang 0.05% 2000 1001 63
Hurly Long 0.61% 164 111 27
Isaac Lam 0.11% 909 601 20
J.C. Ritchie 5.40% 19 14 62
Jake Vincent 0.65% 154 276 0.30% 76 -0.3 Unibet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Meyer De Beco 0.78% 128 81 43
James Morrison 0.80% 125 181 0.20% 27 -0.2 Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jamie Rutherford 1.43% 70 81 0.20% 118 -0.2 Unibet: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jan Schneider 0.36% 278 301 4
Jeff Burton 0.02% 5000 1501 105
Jeppe Kristian Andersen 1.27% 79 41 118
Jicheng Fan 0.02% 5000 1001 84
John Gough 0.62% 161 126 105
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 0.53% 189 67 97
Joshua Berry 0.89% 112 67 84
Jovan Rebula 1.52% 66 71 0.10% 8 -0.1 Unibet: 70/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julian Perico 1.36% 74 91 0.30% 76 -0.3 Unibet: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julien Quesne 0.54% 185 326 0.20% 76 -0.2 Spreadex: 325/1, 6pl, 1/5
Julien Sale 1.70% 59 56 20
Junghyun Um 0.54% 185 401 0.30% 84 -0.3 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kazuki Suzuki 0.18% 556 601 53
Kento Nakai 0.00% 10000 4001 116
Lars Van Meijel 1.35% 74 36 8
Leon D'Souza 0.05% 2000 2001 105
Liam Nolan 0.21% 476 326 43
Linqiang Li 0.21% 476 451 63
Lloyd Jefferson Go 0.12% 833 601 38
Lucas Vacarisas 0.37% 270 251 59
Lukas Nemecz 2.67% 37 31 63
Malcolm Ting 0.03% 3333 1501 97
Matthis Besard 1.69% 59 41 15
Max Kennedy 0.53% 189 151 105
Maxence Giboudot 0.27% 370 301 27
Maximilian Steinlechner 1.56% 64 34 2
Motin Yeung 0.05% 2000 601 31
Nick Carlson 0.93% 108 121 0.10% 31 -0.1 Unibet: 120/1, 5pl, 1/4
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 3.15% 32 23 13
Palmer Jackson 0.66% 152 121 114
Pedro Figueiredo 1.33% 75 121 0.50% 15 -0.5 Unibet: 120/1, 5pl, 1/4
Per Langfors 1.51% 66 61 8
Quim Vidal 1.23% 81 71 53
Renato Paratore 2.42% 41 26 1
Robin Petersson 0.58% 172 181 31
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 1.19% 84 71 43
Rocco Repetto 2.62% 38 26 8
Ronan Kleu 0.65% 154 111 20
Ryan Ang 0.51% 196 326 0.20% 31 -0.2 Unibet: 325/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Lumsden 0.54% 185 101 118
Ryugo Matsubara 0.06% 1667 901 113
Sam Jones 0.67% 149 81 84
Sebastian Garcia 1.26% 79 71 4
Senshou Cao 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 20 -0.1 Spreadex: 350/1, 6pl, 1/5
Shawn Lu 0.35% 286 551 0.20% 42 -0.2 Unibet: 550/1, 5pl, 1/4
Shijun Jing 0.01% 10000 2501 76
Shinichi Mizuno 0.11% 909 1501 63
Shun Yat Hak 0.54% 185 201 93
Stefano Mazzoli 4.27% 23 19 8
Takumi Hayashi 0.02% 5000 1501 97
Tao Deng 0.05% 2000 901 27
Thomas Lim 0.07% 1429 1001 93
Tobias Jonsson 2.29% 44 31 7
Tom Lewis 1.31% 76 41 38
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.18% 556 351 97
Victor Pastor 0.24% 417 601 0.10% 97 -0.1 Unibet: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Vince Van Veen 0.33% 303 301 55
Wilco Nienaber 2.18% 46 41 31
Will Enefer 1.59% 63 46 31
Wocheng Ye 0.04% 2500 1001 93
Xiang Fang 0.00% 10000 4001 84
Xirong Cheng 0.16% 625 401 43
Xuewen Luo 0.14% 714 43
Yang Tong 0.17% 588 601 97
Yanhan Zhou 2.38% 42 15 63
Yanwei Liu 0.89% 112 181 0.30% 43 -0.3 Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yin-Ho Yue 0.24% 417 551 0.10% 63 -0.1 Unibet: 550/1, 5pl, 1/4
Yi-Tseng Huang 0.16% 625 701 76
Yu Fang 0.03% 3333 1001 84
Yue Liu 0.03% 3333 801 52
Yuze Zhang 0.05% 2000 801 61
Zeyu Jing 0.01% 10000 1501 111
Zhengkai Bai 0.33% 303 351 4
Zi Wang 0.12% 833 551 43
Zihao Chen (Sept1996) 0.03% 3333 1001 111
Zijie Huang 0.03% 3333 1501 60

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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