Simulation Results: Challenge Tour Grand Final

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 1.67% 60 34 39
Albin Bergstrom 2.24% 45 36 3
Anton Albers 2.55% 39 34 27
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 1.25% 80 96 0.20% 8 -0.2 Bresbet: 95/1, 5pl, 1/4
Calum Fyfe 1.92% 52 46 21
Clement Charmasson 2.41% 41 51 0.50% 21 -0.5 Unibet: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Van Tonder 1.85% 54 41 3
Daniel Young 2.33% 43 26 18
David Horsey 1.97% 51 46 36
David Law 2.61% 38 19 15
Davis Bryant 3.77% 27 19 27
Euan Walker 2.33% 43 31 3
Felix Mory 3.69% 27 26 6
Filippo Celli 2.14% 47 26 18
Hugo Townsend 2.70% 37 31 11
J.C. Ritchie 6.54% 15 13 7
James Morrison 1.03% 97 76 1
Jamie Rutherford 1.03% 97 101 21
John Gough 0.69% 145 181 0.10% 43 -0.1 Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 0.63% 159 151 36
Joshua Berry 1.04% 96 101 0.10% 8 -0.1 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jovan Rebula 1.99% 50 56 0.20% 11 -0.2 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julian Perico 2.72% 37 41 0.30% 11 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julien Sale 2.07% 48 46 21
Lars Van Meijel 1.78% 56 41 15
Liam Nolan 0.49% 204 251 0.10% 43 -0.1 Bresbet: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lukas Nemecz 4.35% 23 21 34
Maximilian Steinlechner 4.20% 24 15 31
Nick Carlson 1.60% 63 101 0.60% 31 -0.6 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 4.97% 20 15 39
Palmer Jackson 0.74% 135 151 0.10% 8 -0.1 Unibet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Pedro Figueiredo 1.41% 71 67 15
Per Langfors 2.93% 34 34 11
Quim Vidal 0.92% 109 101 21
Renato Paratore 3.06% 33 21 30
Robin Petersson 0.84% 119 131 0.10% 39 -0.1 Bresbet: 130/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rocco Repetto 2.88% 35 21 27
Sam Jones 0.68% 147 111 43
Sebastian Garcia 3.21% 31 34 0.30% 18 -0.3 BetMGM: 33/1, 5pl, 1/5
Stefano Mazzoli 4.00% 25 19 2
Tobias Jonsson 3.38% 30 23 34
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.61% 164 201 0.10% 36 -0.1 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Victor Pastor 0.63% 159 151 21
Wilco Nienaber 2.02% 50 36 31
Will Enefer 2.15% 47 46 42

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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