Simulation Results: German Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Sangala 0.00% 10000 2001 152
Albert Boneta 1.60% 63 34 61
Albin Bergstrom 1.12% 89 91 102
Alejandro Aguilera 0.06% 1667 751 138
Alfie Plant 0.76% 132 67 23
Andoni Etchenique 0.11% 909 601 146
Andrew Garner 0.00% 10000 2001 129
Anton Albers 0.56% 179 101 102
Aron Zemmer 0.54% 185 251 0.10% 85 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Aydan Verdonk 0.01% 10000 2001 61
Aymeric Laussot 0.24% 417 601 0.10% 85 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 1.93% 52 51 115
Bastien Amat 0.35% 286 176 38
Ben Sigel 0.12% 833 501 138
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.49% 204 101 23
Benjamin Kedochim 0.02% 5000 1001 72
Benjamin Rusch 0.46% 217 101 11
Borja Virto 1.07% 93 51 61
Bradley Bawden 0.24% 417 401 23
Brandon Kewalramani 0.25% 400 351 138
Bryce Easton 1.38% 72 76 0.10% 42 -0.1 Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Calum Fyfe 0.68% 147 67 123
Cedric Gugler 0.23% 435 401 123
Charlie Thornton 0.08% 1250 501 115
Chase Hanna 0.30% 333 401 0.10% 54 -0.1 Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Paisley 0.40% 250 276 23
Chris Wood 0.89% 112 101 61
Christian Jacobsen 0.63% 159 91 45
Christoffer Bring 1.37% 73 51 72
Christopher White 0.00% 10000 2001 85
Clement Charmasson 1.32% 76 81 0.10% 6 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Damien Perrier 0.36% 278 301 54
Danny List 1.68% 60 51 85
David Borda 0.17% 588 401 33
David Horsey 1.65% 61 41
David Nyfjall 0.47% 213 176 123
Denwit David Boriboonsub 0.66% 152 151 153
Dermot Mcelroy 0.29% 345 251 129
Eddie Pepperell 2.19% 46 51 0.20% 8 -0.2 Bet365: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Eduard Rousaud 0.20% 500 151 102
Enrico Di Nitto 0.08% 1250 1251 33
Felix Mory 2.60% 38 36 33
Filip Mruzek 1.46% 68 29 23
Filippo Celli 1.19% 84 41 4
Fiorino Clerici 0.00% 10000 1501 129
Gabriel Morgan 0.15% 667 501 45
Gary King 0.07% 1429 751 48
Graeme Robertson 0.27% 370 301 123
Gunner Wiebe 0.13% 769 601 1
Gustav Frimodt 0.06% 1667 751 137
Hugh Foley 0.01% 10000 751 72
Hurly Long 0.79% 127 101 23
J.C. Ritchie 2.14% 47 31 1
Jack Davidson 0.67% 149 101 48
Jack Floydd 0.14% 714 176 102
Jack Madden 0.03% 3333 1251 115
Jack Mcdonald 0.96% 104 56 33
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa 0.76% 132 91 61
James Allan 0.55% 182 151 85
James Meyer De Beco 0.21% 476 501 85
James Morrison 0.70% 143 81 123
Jamie Rutherford 1.38% 72 51 42
Javier Barcos Garbayo 0.32% 313 126 72
Jean Bekirian 0.62% 161 51
Jens Fahrbring 0.76% 132 151 0.10% 153 -0.1 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jens Kristian Thysted 0.28% 357 351 102
Jeppe Kristian Andersen 0.79% 127 67 16
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.81% 123 81 102
Jiri Zuska 0.63% 159 126 48
John Gough 0.39% 256 91 85
Jonas Blixt 0.14% 714 301 85
Jonathan Caldwell 0.22% 455 401 85
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 1.19% 84 67 61
Joshua Berry 1.68% 60 34 2
Jovan Rebula 0.95% 105 67 61
Julian Perico 0.98% 102 111 0.10% 8 -0.1 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julien Quesne 0.83% 120 101 6
Justin Harding 0.25% 400 201 102
Kim Koivu 0.13% 769 351 48
Kris Kim 0.03% 3333 751 138
Kyle Barker 0.15% 667 301 85
Lars Van Der Vight 0.18% 556 251 38
Lauri Ruuska 0.32% 313 251 11
Lee Slattery 0.20% 500 401 80
Liam Nolan 0.44% 227 126 129
Lucas Vacarisas 1.08% 93 91 72
Luis Masaveu 0.82% 122 51 11
Lukas Nemecz 3.64% 27 21 72
Lyle Rowe 0.38% 263 151 85
Marc Hammer 0.70% 143 71 80
Marc Warren 0.30% 333 126 102
Martin Simonsen 1.09% 92 111 0.20% 61 -0.2 Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mateusz Gradecki 0.04% 2500 1001 144
Matt Oshrine 0.23% 435 226 23
Matt Sharpstene 0.13% 769 501 85
Matthew Dodd-Berry 1.14% 88 251 0.70% 102 -0.7 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthis Besard 1.05% 95 71 85
Mauro Gilardi 0.13% 769 351 72
Max Kennedy 2.11% 47 36 80
Maximilian Schmitt 0.39% 256 201 85
Maximilian Steinlechner 3.48% 29 17 18
Maxwell Martin 0.03% 3333 1001 102
Michael Hirmer 0.27% 370 251 18
Michal Bargenda 0.00% 10000 2501 150
Michele Ortolani 0.69% 145 126 61
Nicolai Kristensen 0.46% 217 151 23
Nils-Levi Bock 0.00% 10000 401 72
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 2.15% 47 26 11
Oliver Csanyi 0.00% 10000 1501 147
Oliver Farr 0.27% 370 151 61
Oliver Gillberg 0.34% 294 161 153
Pedro Figueiredo 0.87% 115 81 102
Pedro Lencart 0.06% 1667 601 129
Philipp Katich 0.22% 455 201 4
Philipp Macionga 0.01% 10000 2001 54
Quim Vidal 0.97% 103 71 115
Renato Paratore 3.00% 33 34 0.10% 102 -0.1 Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Richard Sarkozi 0.00% 10000 1251 123
Robert Moran 0.04% 2500 501 138
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 2.60% 38 29 18
Romain Wattel 0.31% 323 301 16
Ronan Kleu 0.22% 455 401 45
Ryan Evans 0.10% 1000 601 38
Ryan Lumsden 1.26% 79 41 58
Sam Jones 0.77% 130 91 18
Sam Locke 0.09% 1111 751 80
Santiago Tarrio 1.45% 69 34 48
Sebastian Friedrichsen 0.97% 103 81
Sebastian Garcia 0.64% 156 126 23
Sebastien Gros 0.29% 345 351 144
Simon Zach 0.01% 10000 1501 138
Soren Broholt Lind 0.05% 2000 2001 85
Stefano Mazzoli 2.61% 38 41 0.20% 38 -0.2 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steven Brown 1.11% 90 101 0.10% Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stuart Manley 0.51% 196 176 23
Tadeas Tetak 0.92% 109 41 148
Thomas Power Horan 0.07% 1429 1001 60
Tiger Christensen 0.84% 119 67 11
Tim Tillmanns 0.34% 294 126 18
Timon Baltl 0.46% 217 301 0.10% 102 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tjelle Rieger 0.00% 10000 351 129
Tobias Jonsson 2.35% 43 34 54
Tom Lewis 0.65% 154 81 2
Tomas Bessa 0.02% 5000 501 33
Tomas Gouveia 0.61% 164 101 129
Tyko Tuohimaa 0.00% 10000 2501 148
Vasco Alves 0.00% 10000 1001 61
Velten Meyer 0.23% 435 401 151
Victor Garcia Broto 0.03% 3333 751 115
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.96% 104 101 115
Victor Pastor 0.29% 345 301 85
Vince Van Veen 0.26% 385 226 8
Will Hopkins 0.31% 323 201 42
Wolfgang Glawe 0.68% 147 126 80
Wouter De Vries 0.46% 217 176 58
Yente Van Doren 0.00% 10000 751 129

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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