Simulation Results: German Challenge

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Blomme	0.93%	108	91		72
Adam Wallin	1.88%	53	26		121
Adri Arnaus	1.24%	81	161	0.60%	74	-0.6	BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Albert Boneta	0.29%	345	226		139
Alexander Knappe	0.62%	161	111		70
Alexander Levy	2.79%	36	46	0.60%	74	-0.6	Skybet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alfie Plant	0.81%	123	76		15
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	2.41%	41	51	0.50%	25	-0.5	888sport: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Algot Kleen	0.47%	213	111		36
Allen John	0.45%	222	91		74
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.14%	714	601		15
Andrea Romano	0.54%	185	56		25
Andres German Gallegos	0.27%	370	401		25
Anton Albers	0.50%	200	151		74
Antonio Hortal	0.00%	10000	1501		147
Aron Zemmer	0.47%	213	111		121
Asier Aguirre	0.06%	1667	501		87
Aymeric Laussot	0.21%	476	351		87
Baard Skogen	0.78%	128	141	0.10%	15	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bailey Gill	0.08%	1250	751		121
Barclay Brown	0.64%	156	71		111
Bastien Amat	0.23%	435	501		61
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.50%	200	176		149
Benjamin Rusch	0.52%	192	151		36
Bjorn Akesson	0.74%	135	91		50
Borja Virto	0.62%	161	91		149
Bryce Easton	1.59%	63	41		50
Callum Farr	0.87%	115	101		58
Calum Fyfe	0.91%	110	67		54
Canon Claycomb	0.29%	345	226		111
Cedric Gugler	0.03%	3333	1251		41
Charles Huntzinger	1.47%	68	91	0.40%	87	-0.4	Bet365: 75/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlie Lindh	1.31%	76	41		5
Chase Hanna	0.46%	217	111		50
Chris Wood	0.81%	123	67		15
Christian Braunig	0.14%	714	226		25
Christofer Blomstrand	1.36%	74	56		15
Clay Seeber	0.01%	10000	1251		147
Clement Sordet	1.58%	63	41		111
Collin Adams	0.15%	667	2001	0.10%	153	-0.1	Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Conor Purcell	0.44%	227	176		121
Corey Shaun	0.11%	909	1001		144
Dan Erickson	0.53%	189	141		74
Danny List	0.22%	455	301
David Horsey	0.89%	112	56		5
David Langley	0.05%	2000	401		121
Dominic Foos	0.93%	108	81		111
Fabius Will Bradhering	0.00%	10000	2001		152
Filip Mruzek	0.62%	161	67		11
Fiorino Clerici	0.02%	5000			98
Frank Kennedy	0.76%	132	161	0.10%	87	-0.1	888sport: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fred Biondi	0.92%	109	181	0.40%	36	-0.4	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Frederik Eisenbeis	0.04%	2500	351		98
Frederik Kjettrup	0.39%	256	111		87
Gary Hurley	0.25%	400	201		111
Gavin Green	0.13%	769	501		111
George Bloor	0.45%	222	176		25
Gordan Brixi	0.01%	10000	2001		87
Graeme Robertson	0.45%	222	141		25
Gregor Graham	0.36%	278	201		98
Haider Hussain	0.02%	5000	1001		127
Hamish Brown	2.76%	36	21		25
Haraldur Magnus	0.19%	526	501		25
Hurly Long	0.28%	357	226		5
Jack Yule	0.12%	833	401		25
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.11%	909	1001		134
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa	0.78%	128	91		98
Jake Mcgoldrick	0.15%	667	451		87
James Meyer De Beco	0.92%	109	101		130
Jamie Rutherford	1.53%	65	67		98
Jan Schneider	0.45%	222	141		36
Jannik De Bruyn	1.29%	78	67		74
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.40%	250	351	0.10%	36	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jeppe Kristian Andersen	1.25%	80	67		5
Jerry Ji	0.05%	2000	1501		74
Jhared Hack	2.69%	37	46	0.50%	73	-0.5	888sport: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joel Moscatel	0.37%	270	201		139
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.64%	156	151		54
Jordan Wrisdale	0.07%	1429	401		111
Joseba Torres	0.45%	222	151		46
Joseph Pagdin	0.12%	833	701		61
Jovan Rebula	0.47%	213	226		144
Julian Perico	1.36%	74	46		130
Julien Brun	0.82%	122	71		61
Julien Quesne	0.65%	154	91		50
Julien Sale	1.19%	84	41		2
Justin Harding	0.54%	185	91		74
Kieran Cantley	0.04%	2500	1001		134
Kieran Vincent	1.27%	79	26		11
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.04%	2500	1001		139
Kristian Krogh Johannessen	3.08%	32	21		11
Lars Van Der Vight	0.93%	108	91		1
Lars Van Meijel	0.58%	172	101		46
Lauri Ruuska	0.31%	323	91		111
Leon Acikalin	0.00%	10000	2501		134
Liam Johnston	0.09%	1111	601		87
Linus Lang	0.05%	2000	551		54
Lorenzo Scalise	1.92%	52	31		74
Louis Albertse	0.89%	112	71		139
Luis Masaveu	1.61%	62	41		5
Lukas Nemecz	1.09%	92	67		58
M.J. Viljoen	0.84%	119	91		74
Marc Hammer	0.83%	120	91		134
Marc Warren	1.33%	75	91	0.20%	21	-0.2	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mark Power	0.55%	182	151		41
Martin Leth Simonsen	1.06%	94	91		87
Martin Vorster	1.02%	98	81		98
Matteo Cristoni	0.99%	101	76		21
Matthew Baldwin	1.00%	100	161	0.40%	98	-0.4	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthis Besard	0.55%	182	101		5
Matyas Zapletal	0.00%	10000	2501
Maximilian Jelinek	0.05%	2000	1251		41
Maximilian Kieffer	0.53%	189	101		98
Maximilian Rottluff	0.69%	145	111		127
Michael Alexander Mjaaseth	0.08%	1250			68
Michael Hirmer	0.51%	196	276	0.10%	98	-0.1	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michal Bargenda	0.00%	10000	2001		154
Mike Toorop	0.19%	526	401		41
Nick Bachem	0.09%	1111	751		61
Nicolas Horder	0.02%	5000	701		98
Pablo Ereno	3.99%	25	26	0.10%	87	-0.1	Spreadex: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Palmer Jackson	0.13%	769	501		71
Pedro Figueiredo	2.43%	41	34		25
Pedro Lencart Silva	0.02%	5000	2001		74
Philipp Katich	0.11%	909	351		98
Pierre Pineau	0.72%	139	101		74
Robert Foley	0.01%	10000	2001		139
Robin Petersson	0.21%	476	351		151
Robin Williams	1.39%	72	56		68
Ronan Kleu	0.37%	270	226		130
Ronan Mullarney	0.13%	769	401		21
Rory Franssen	0.09%	1111	751		111
Ryan Brooks	0.50%	200	81		61
Ryan Van Velzen	0.56%	179	111		127
Sam Jones	0.52%	192	141		111
Sam Locke	0.26%	385	201		1
Santiago Tarrio	0.83%	120	56		130
Sebastian Vida	0.00%	10000	2501		155
Simon Forsstrom	0.63%	159	91		144
Simon Zach	0.00%	10000	2001		134
Stepan Danek	0.01%	10000	1501		74
Steven Brown	0.22%	455	351		121
Tadeas Tetak	1.35%	74	56		11
Tapio Pulkkanen	1.57%	64	41		54
Thomas Georg Schmidt	0.26%	385	141		25
Tiger Christensen	0.54%	185	141		15
Tom Lewis	1.40%	71	67		41
Tomas Bessa	0.05%	2000	601		98
Tomas Gouveia	0.29%	345	226		61
Tyko Tuohimaa	0.00%	10000	2501		58
Velten Meyer	0.20%	500	226		46
Victor Bjorlow	0.15%	667	301		98
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.21%	476	501		46
Wilco Nienaber	0.87%	115	61		61
Wouter De Vries	0.22%	455	251		3
Yannik Paul	1.20%	83	81		87

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Blomme	0.89%	112	86		18
Adam Wallin	1.43%	70	34		129
Adri Arnaus	1.08%	93	91		31
Albert Boneta	0.45%	222	141		142
Alexander Knappe	0.75%	133	81		96
Alexander Levy	1.81%	55	46		77
Alfie Plant	0.87%	115	71		31
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	1.62%	62	51		18
Algot Kleen	0.64%	156	81		31
Allen John	0.62%	161	91		129
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.30%	333	201		48
Andrea Romano	0.65%	154	56		96
Andres German Gallegos	0.42%	238	201		48
Anton Albers	0.56%	179	111		31
Antonio Hortal	0.05%	2000	401		149
Aron Zemmer	0.60%	167	86		137
Asier Aguirre	0.20%	500	201		96
Aymeric Laussot	0.39%	256	201		113
Baard Skogen	0.79%	127	101		48
Bailey Gill	0.22%	455	201		113
Barclay Brown	0.65%	154	71		96
Bastien Amat	0.39%	256	201		48
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.62%	161	111		151
Benjamin Rusch	0.61%	164	111		18
Bjorn Akesson	0.85%	118	76		9
Borja Virto	0.68%	147	76		77
Bryce Easton	1.28%	78	51		113
Callum Farr	0.86%	116	81		113
Calum Fyfe	0.92%	109	67		9
Canon Claycomb	0.48%	208	111		77
Cedric Gugler	0.13%	769	351		48
Charles Huntzinger	1.23%	81	76		48
Charlie Lindh	1.12%	89	46		31
Chase Hanna	0.60%	167	86		77
Chris Wood	0.84%	119	67		2
Christian Braunig	0.33%	303	126		9
Christofer Blomstrand	1.21%	83	67		18
Clay Seeber	0.08%	1250	351		148
Clement Sordet	1.28%	78	51		31
Collin Adams	0.32%	313	501	0.10%	151	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Conor Purcell	0.54%	185	126		129
Corey Shaun	0.25%	400	301		96
Dan Erickson	0.64%	156	91		77
David Horsey	0.87%	115	61		31
David Langley	0.15%	667	201		149
Dominic Foos	0.91%	110	71		96
Fabius Will Bradhering	0.06%	1667	501		142
Filip Mruzek	0.72%	139	67		1
Fiorino Clerici	0.09%	1111			77
Frank Kennedy	0.83%	120	111		96
Fred Biondi	0.88%	114	101		31
Frederik Eisenbeis	0.16%	625	201		113
Frederik Kjettrup	0.55%	182	86		96
Gary Hurley	0.40%	250	111		31
Gavin Green	0.28%	357	201		48
George Bloor	0.54%	185	111		9
Gordan Brixi	0.07%	1429	501		31
Graeme Robertson	0.58%	172	111		18
Gregor Graham	0.49%	204	111		48
Haider Hussain	0.06%	1667	401		113
Hamish Brown	1.82%	55	31		3
Haraldur Magnus	0.38%	263	201		31
Hurly Long	0.42%	238	141		31
Jack Yule	0.25%	400	201		3
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.26%	385	301		142
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa	0.75%	133	86		77
Jake Mcgoldrick	0.29%	345	201		48
James Meyer De Beco	0.93%	108	86		77
Jamie Rutherford	1.20%	83	67		96
Jan Schneider	0.64%	156	91		18
Jannik De Bruyn	1.07%	93	61		96
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.52%	192	201		31
Jean Bekirian	0.55%	182			3
Jeppe Kristian Andersen	1.14%	88	67		9
Jerry Ji	0.16%	625	351		142
Jhared Hack	1.72%	58	56		9
Joel Moscatel	0.58%	172	141		142
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.77%	130	111		48
Jordan Wrisdale	0.19%	526	201		113
Joseba Torres	0.61%	164	101		77
Joseph Pagdin	0.29%	345	201		77
Jovan Rebula	0.66%	152	126		113
Julian Perico	1.13%	88	51		3
Julien Brun	0.83%	120	71		77
Julien Quesne	0.72%	139	86		48
Julien Sale	1.02%	98	51		3
Justin Harding	0.65%	154	86		48
Kieran Cantley	0.17%	588	351		113
Kieran Vincent	1.09%	92	36		48
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.16%	625	351		113
Kristian Krogh Johannessen	1.96%	51	34		31
Lars Van Der Vight	0.95%	105	76		31
Lars Van Meijel	0.72%	139	81		18
Lauri Ruuska	0.46%	217	76		113
Leon Acikalin	0.03%	3333	601		137
Liam Johnston	0.27%	370	226		113
Linus Lang	0.18%	556	201		18
Lorenzo Scalise	1.44%	69	41		129
Louis Albertse	0.95%	105	67		77
Luis Masaveu	1.26%	79	51		9
Lukas Nemecz	1.00%	100	71		48
M.J. Viljoen	0.79%	127	71		113
Marc Hammer	0.88%	114	76		96
Marc Warren	1.15%	87	76		48
Mark Power	0.72%	139	111		96
Martin Leth Simonsen	0.97%	103	76		48
Martin Vorster	0.88%	114	76		129
Matteo Cristoni	0.91%	110	76		137
Matthew Baldwin	0.95%	105	111		48
Matthis Besard	0.67%	149	76		77
Matyas Zapletal	0.01%	10000	601
Maximilian Jelinek	0.15%	667	351		18
Maximilian Kieffer	0.64%	156	81		77
Maximilian Rottluff	0.85%	118	81		137
Michael Alexander Mjaaseth	0.26%	385			48
Michael Hirmer	0.61%	164	151		48
Michal Bargenda	0.01%	10000	501		154
Mike Toorop	0.37%	270	201		9
Nick Bachem	0.22%	455	226		77
Nicolas Horder	0.10%	1000	201		96
Pablo Ereno	2.22%	45	36		31
Palmer Jackson	0.31%	323	201		48
Pedro Figueiredo	1.61%	62	41		77
Pedro Lencart Silva	0.15%	667	501		18
Philipp Katich	0.21%	476	176		31
Pierre Pineau	0.72%	139	86		113
Quinnton Croker	0.25%	400			48
Robert Foley	0.10%	1000	501		151
Robin Petersson	0.37%	270	176		142
Robin Williams	1.14%	88	61		77
Ronan Kleu	0.52%	192	141		137
Ronan Mullarney	0.30%	333	201		77
Rory Franssen	0.24%	417	226		48
Ryan Brooks	0.66%	152	71		96
Ryan Van Velzen	0.66%	152	86		129
Sam Jones	0.65%	154	101		48
Santiago Tarrio	0.84%	119	61		48
Sebastian Vida	0.00%	10000	601		154
Simon Forsstrom	0.69%	145	71		129
Simon Zach	0.01%	10000	501		113
Stepan Danek	0.08%	1250	401		113
Steven Brown	0.38%	263	201		48
Tadeas Tetak	1.07%	93	61		48
Tapio Pulkkanen	1.23%	81	51		48
Thomas Georg Schmidt	0.47%	213	101		3
Tiger Christensen	0.63%	159	86		48
Tom Lewis	1.20%	83	71		96
Tomas Bessa	0.18%	556	226		96
Tomas Gouveia	0.45%	222	126		18
Tyko Tuohimaa	0.04%	2500	601		129
Velten Meyer	0.45%	222	126		9
Victor Bjorlow	0.28%	357	151		77
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.40%	250	201		96
Wilco Nienaber	0.86%	116	67		18
Wouter De Vries	0.40%	250	141		18
Yannik Paul	1.04%	96	71		48

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Alexander Levy	2.79%	36	46	0.60%	74	-2	Skybet: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Adri Arnaus	1.24%	81	161	0.60%	74	-2	BetMGM: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
WIN: Jhared Hack	2.69%	37	46	0.50%	73	-2	888sport: 50/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Collin Adams	0.32%	313	501	0.10%	151	-3	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.