Simulation Results: Finnish Challenge

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adri Arnaus 3.02% 33 26 9
Albert Eckhardt 0.04% 2500 1501 66
Albin Bergstrom 1.08% 93 76 9
Alejandro Aguilera 0.12% 833 751 146
Alfie Plant 1.15% 87 111 0.30% 2 3.15 Spreadex: 110/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alvaro Hernandez Cabezuela 0.19% 526 551 5
Andoni Etchenique 0.38% 263 451 0.20% 5 2.6375 Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andrew Garner 0.00% 10000 4001 120
Anton Albers 0.95% 105 101 14
Ashley Chesters 1.25% 80 141 0.50% 91 -0.5 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Asier Aguirre Izcue 0.13% 769 551 120
Benjamin Kedochim 0.14% 714 1001 39
Bradley Bawden 0.83% 120 141 0.10% 120 -0.1 Spreadex: 140/1, 6pl, 1/5
Brandon Kewalramani 0.39% 256 451 0.20% 39 -0.2 Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryce Easton 2.94% 34 41 0.50% 22 -0.5 Spreadex: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Callan Barrow 1.02% 98 91 91
Calum Fyfe 1.20% 83 91 0.10% 17 -0.1 Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
Cedric Gugler 0.50% 200 201 54
Chase Hanna 0.66% 152 226 0.20% 22 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Christofer Rahm 0.39% 256 501 0.20% 129 -0.2 Spreadex: 500/1, 6pl, 1/5
Clement Charmasson 2.22% 45 46 134
Craig Howie 1.27% 79 101 0.30% 46 -0.3 Spreadex: 100/1, 6pl, 1/5
Damien Perrier 0.76% 132 276 0.40% 141 -0.4 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Daniel Rodrigues 0.43% 233 201 63
David Boote 0.52% 192 276 0.20% 70 -0.2 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
David Borda 0.54% 185 161 120
David Langley 0.98% 102 101 27
David Law 4.39% 23 23 1
David Lundgren 0.28% 357 251 80
Eduard Rousaud 0.28% 357 501 0.10% 107 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Egert Poldma 0.00% 10000 1501 153
Enrico Di Nitto 0.26% 385 751 0.10% 70 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Fabius Will Bradhering 0.05% 2000 1001 63
Felix Mory 2.64% 38 34 91
Fiorino Clerici 0.00% 10000 3001 107
Flavio Michetti 0.08% 1250 751 69
Gary King 0.17% 588 751 80
George Mason 0.39% 256 451 0.20% 46 -0.2 Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Giovanni Manzoni 0.01% 10000 2001 146
Gudmundur Kristjansson 0.23% 435 601 0.10% 91 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gustav Frimodt 0.49% 204 141 46
Haraldur Magnus 0.87% 115 151 0.20% 39 -0.2 Ladbrokes: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hayden Hopewell 0.62% 161 226 0.20% 146 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Hugh Foley 0.06% 1667 1001 120
Hugo Camelo Ferreira 0.00% 10000 1001 150
Hurly Long 1.65% 61 67 0.20% 70 -0.2 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jack Floydd 0.25% 400 501 0.10% 151 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Mcdonald 2.12% 47 41 9
James Allan 0.82% 122 226 0.40% 80 -0.4 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
James Meyer De Beco 0.70% 143 151 14
Javier Barcos Garbayo 0.32% 313 226 91
Javier Calles Roman 0.13% 769 551 120
Jeremy Freiburghaus 1.20% 83 151 0.50% 80 -0.5 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joachim B. Hansen 0.04% 2500 1001 129
Jonas Blixt 0.38% 263 301 2
Jorge Maicas 0.13% 769 501 141
Joshua Berry 3.11% 32 26 17
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.34% 294 251 120
Julian Perico 1.90% 53 61 0.30% 33 -0.3 Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Jussi Kumpulainen 0.00% 10000 2001 141
Keanu Akina 0.02% 5000 1001 46
Kevin Christopher Jegers 0.00% 10000 601 120
Kim Koivu 0.42% 238 226 91
Lauri Rosendahl 0.01% 10000 1001 80
Lloyd Jefferson Go 0.19% 526 751 0.10% 151 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luca Memeo 0.15% 667 751 46
Marc Hammer 1.72% 58 76 0.40% 80 -0.4 Spreadex: 75/1, 6pl, 1/5
Markus Luoma 0.03% 3333 1501 70
Mateusz Gradecki 0.06% 1667 2001 70
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon 1.14% 88 91 33
Matias Honkala 0.19% 526 251 120
Matt Oshrine 0.61% 164 226 0.20% 27 -0.2 Spreadex: 225/1, 6pl, 1/5
Matthew Cheung 0.93% 108 131 0.20% 134 -0.2 Spreadex: 130/1, 6pl, 1/5
Max Kennedy 1.59% 63 46 58
Maxence Giboudot 1.78% 56 67 0.30% 68 -0.3 Unibet: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Michael Feuerstein 0.30% 333 601 0.10% 107 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michal Bargenda 0.00% 10000 4001 91
Nathan Legendre 0.40% 250 326 0.10% 134 -0.1 Spreadex: 325/1, 6pl, 1/5
Nick Carlson 4.11% 24 34 1.20% 5 0.1875 Skybet: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Niklas Regner 0.28% 357 751 0.10% 155 -0.1 Bet365: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 4.60% 22 23 0.30% 4 0.675 Skybet: 22/1, 5pl, 1/4
Oliver Farr 0.96% 104 126 0.20% 80 -0.2 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Oliver Gillberg 0.60% 167 151 33
Oliver Jacobsson 0.18% 556 751 39
Olly Huggins 0.15% 667 751 107
Oskari Nikku 0.01% 10000 601 134
Palmer Jackson 1.32% 76 71 107
Paul Mcbride 0.52% 192 201 46
Pedro Figueiredo 1.49% 67 67 5
Pedro Lencart 0.10% 1000 1001 91
Per Langfors 1.12% 89 56 70
Peter Launer Baek 0.43% 233 201 91
Philipp Katich 0.98% 102 91 107
Rhys Enoch 0.55% 182 151 39
Rikard Karlberg 0.54% 185 161 146
Robert Moran 0.25% 400 251 80
Rocco Repetto 2.46% 41 34 39
Ronan Kleu 1.49% 67 51 54
Roope Kakko 0.43% 233 276 0.10% 58 -0.1 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Ryan Evans 0.33% 303 601 0.20% 70 -0.2 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Lumsden 3.21% 31 19 91
Sam Jones 1.29% 78 67 66
Sam Locke 0.27% 370 551 0.10% 33 -0.1 Spreadex: 550/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sebastien Gros 0.38% 263 326 0.10% 129 -0.1 Spreadex: 325/1, 6pl, 1/5
Stefano Mazzoli 3.19% 31 21 22
Stuart Manley 1.45% 69 161 0.80% 141 -0.8 Spreadex: 160/1, 6pl, 1/5
Thomas Power Horan 0.13% 769 1001 63
Tiger Christensen 1.24% 81 56 22
Timon Baltl 0.51% 196 276 0.10% 70 -0.1 Spreadex: 275/1, 6pl, 1/5
Tobias Jonsson 1.79% 56 46 58
Tom Gueant 0.11% 909 1001 107
Tomas Gouveia 0.73% 137 201 0.20% 54 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Topi Lindstrom 0.01% 10000 1501 107
Velten Meyer 0.17% 588 551 27
Victor Garcia Broto 0.05% 2000 1501 70
Victor Pastor 0.44% 227 301 0.10% 107 -0.1 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wilco Nienaber 2.61% 38 41 0.20% 39 -0.2 Spreadex: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Will Enefer 2.11% 47 34 33
Will Hopkins 0.93% 108 126 0.10% 17 -0.1 Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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