Simulation Results: Challenge de Espana

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Albert Boneta	1.00%	100	71		21
Alejandro Aguilera	0.04%	2500	1001		106
Alejandro Canizares	0.01%	10000	501		127
Alejandro Rodriguez Andreu	0.03%	3333	501		114
Alex Goff	1.14%	88	81		16
Alfie Plant	0.86%	116	151	0.20%	59	-0.2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alvaro Quiros	0.06%	1667	401		114
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.31%	323	401	0.10%	68	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Andoni Etchenique	0.34%	294	301		68
Andrew Wilson	2.28%	44	29		55
Antonio Hortal	0.00%	10000	501		127
Arjun Prasad	0.15%	667	501		137
Aron Zemmer	0.80%	125	101		26
Asier Aguirre Izcue	0.07%	1429	501		58
Aymeric Laussot	0.09%	1111	501		10
Bailey Gill	0.21%	476	401		55
Barclay Brown	0.38%	263	151		10
Bastien Amat	0.90%	111	111		80
Benjamin Hebert	0.78%	128	81		26
Bryce Easton	1.85%	54	41		31
Callan Barrow	0.60%	167	301	0.30%	59	-0.3	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Callum Farr	0.72%	139	101		94
Canon Claycomb	1.55%	65	91	0.50%	121	-0.5	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charles Huntzinger	0.84%	119	251	0.40%	5	5.95	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Charlie Forster	1.86%	54	46		41
Chase Hanna	0.75%	133	151	0.10%	44	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Chris Wood	2.01%	50	29		84
Christian Braunig	0.03%	3333	501		50
Christian Jacobsen	0.48%	208	201		44
Christoffer Bring	0.06%	1667	501		141
Clay Seeber	0.05%	2000	1001		106
Clement Guichard	0.40%	250	201		121
Clement Sordet	3.04%	33	17		65
Collin Adams	0.25%	400	501	0.10%			Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Cooper Musselman	1.84%	54	46		80
Corey Shaun	0.35%	286	301		63
Cormac Sharvin	0.05%	2000	251		80
Dan Erickson	0.71%	141	181	0.20%	2	4.4	Unibet: 180/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Berna Manzanares	0.01%	10000	751		114
Daniel Gale	0.82%	122	101		94
David Horsey	2.36%	42	46	0.20%	68	-0.2	Spreadex: 45/1, 6pl, 1/5
Deon Germishuys	1.17%	85	71		44
Dermot Mcelroy	0.29%	345			127
Dominic Clemons	0.00%	10000	751		137
Eduard Rousaud	0.16%	625	351		68
Emilio Cuartero Blanco	0.08%	1250	251		31
Emilio Hernandez Lirola	0.01%	10000	751		127
Fabius Will Bradhering	0.02%	5000			127
Filip Mruzek	0.50%	200	181		10
Fiorino Clerici	0.00%	10000	1251		41
Frank Kennedy	0.97%	103	111	0.10%	16	-0.1	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
George Bloor	0.40%	250	201		26
Gerard Piris Mateu	0.01%	10000	501		106
Gordan Brixi	0.02%	5000	1251		68
Haydn Barron	2.22%	45	29		21
Henric Sturehed	0.29%	345	501	0.10%	84	-0.1	Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hurly Long	0.43%	233	201		127
Jack Floydd	0.24%	417	351		143
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.42%	238	201		106
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa	0.57%	175	151		31
James Allan	0.12%	833	301		68
James Meyer De Beco	0.93%	108	111		68
James Sugrue	0.08%	1250	401		44
Jamie Rutherford	1.43%	70	67		5
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.50%	200	201		41
Javier Calles Roman	0.31%	323	201		59
Jean Bekirian	0.57%	175	126		31
Jerry Ji	0.13%	769	501		121
Jhared Hack	2.68%	37	61	1.10%	16	-1.1	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jiri Zuska	0.32%	313	251		26
Joel Moscatel	1.03%	97	71		141
John Axelsen	0.31%	323	276		114
John Gough	0.45%	222	251	0.10%	80	-0.1	Ladbrokes: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
John-Ross Galbraith	0.21%	476	301		63
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	1.03%	97	81		94
Joseba Torres	0.90%	111	276	0.50%	80	-0.5	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Josep Maria Serra Busquet	0.02%	5000	1001		94
Joseph Pagdin	0.39%	256	301	0.10%	80	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Juan Salama	0.46%	217	151		94
Julien Brun	1.56%	64	56		16
Julien Quesne	0.41%	244	351	0.10%	31	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julien Sale	1.35%	74	51		31
Justin Harding	0.66%	152	91		16
Kieran Vincent	2.48%	40	21		10
Kris Kim	0.07%	1429	501		94
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.02%	5000	751		80
Lars Van Der Vight	1.20%	83	81		106
Lars Van Meijel	0.87%	115	51		50
Lenny Koch	0.00%	10000	2001		106
Liam Johnston	0.15%	667	251		26
Liam Nolan	1.25%	80	61		7
Linus Lang	0.07%	1429	501		106
Lorenzo Scalise	1.21%	83	67		68
Lucas Vacarisas	0.33%	303	251		68
Ludovico Addabbo	0.11%	909	501		80
M.J. Viljoen	0.61%	164	151		127
Manuel Morugan	0.03%	3333	751		121
Marc Hammer	0.15%	667	301		31
Mark Power	0.85%	118	101		44
Martin Eriksson	0.21%	476	251		137
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon	0.77%	130	126		67
Matias Honkala	0.18%	556	351		137
Matt Gilchrest	0.02%	5000	501		14
Matteo Cristoni	1.10%	91	111	0.20%	7	-0.2	Bet365: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Matthis Besard	1.15%	87	51		50
Max Kennedy	0.78%	128	67		59
Maxence Giboudot	2.18%	46	41		50
Maximilian Franck	0.00%	10000			143
Michael Hirmer	0.62%	161	151		80
Nikhil Rama	0.75%	133	201	0.30%	68	-0.3	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nikolas Tyminski	0.00%	10000	1501		146
Ollie Jacobsson	0.08%	1250	601		152
Oskari Nikku	0.10%	1000	501		80
Pablo Ereno Perez	3.90%	26	17		7
Pedro Figueiredo	2.35%	43	36		4
Pedro Marin Santander	0.00%	10000	1501		127
Pedro Oriol	0.07%	1429	501		149
Pep Angles	0.02%	5000	501		80
Philipp Katich	0.20%	500	201		68
Pierre Pineau	0.47%	213	251	0.10%	106	-0.1	Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Quinnton Croker	0.23%	435	251		65
Robert Dinwiddie	0.19%	526			94
Robert Foley	0.08%	1250	301		150
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.62%	161	151		80
Ronan Kleu	1.15%	87	81		94
Ronan Mullarney	0.29%	345	226		146
Rory Franssen	0.09%	1111	501		121
Ruben Lafuente Montesa	0.01%	10000	1001		127
Ruben Pardo	0.00%	10000			121
Ryan Lumsden	0.47%	213	141		80
Ryan Van Velzen	2.05%	49	46		1
Sam Hutsby	1.20%	83	101	0.20%	44	-0.2	Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Jones	0.72%	139	91		150
Santiago Tarrio	0.50%	200	71		21
Saptak Talwar	0.86%	116	151	0.20%	94	-0.2	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Scott Fernandez	0.03%	3333	601		148
Sebastian Petersen	0.21%	476	301		143
Sebastien Gros	0.04%	2500	401		94
Soren Broholt Lind	0.15%	667	751		114
Steven Brown	0.31%	323	301		31
Tadeas Tetak	0.51%	196	151		31
Tiger Christensen	0.33%	303	151		114
Toby Hunt	0.35%	286	201		94
Tom Lewis	2.56%	39	29		127
Tom Sloman	0.09%	1111			80
Tomas Bessa	0.41%	244	351	0.10%	155	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tomas Gouveia	0.65%	154	126		68
Tyko Tuohimaa	0.01%	10000	1501		114
Veer Ahlawat	0.95%	105	101		50
Victor Bjorlow	0.11%	909	501		14
Wil Besseling	1.08%	93	151	0.40%	2	7.3	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wilco Nienaber	2.07%	48	26		55
Will Enefer	2.73%	37	23		31
Will Porter	0.49%	204	151		94
William Vold	0.01%	10000	1501		153
Wouter De Vries	0.41%	244	151		21

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Albert Boneta	0.83%	120	71		59
Alejandro Aguilera	0.10%	1000	301		102
Alejandro Canizares	0.09%	1111	251		150
Alejandro Rodriguez Andreu	0.10%	1000	201		59
Alex Goff	0.82%	122	61		7
Alfie Plant	0.70%	143	91		7
Alvaro Quiros	0.17%	588	176		117
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.63%	159	151		59
Andoni Etchenique	0.39%	256	141		102
Andrew Wilson	2.00%	50	36		40
Antonio Hortal	0.04%	2500	201		139
Arjun Prasad	0.42%	238	181		139
Aron Zemmer	0.68%	147	91		40
Asier Aguirre Izcue	0.15%	667	181		24
Aymeric Laussot	0.33%	303	161		59
Bailey Gill	0.52%	192	151		16
Barclay Brown	0.45%	222	81		59
Bastien Amat	1.14%	88	91		84
Benjamin Hebert	1.03%	97	86		40
Bryce Easton	1.66%	60	56		4
Callan Barrow	0.87%	115	141	0.20%	84	-0.2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
Callum Farr	1.04%	96	71		84
Canon Claycomb	1.07%	93	71		102
Charles Huntzinger	0.67%	149	141		40
Charlie Forster	1.68%	60	46		117
Chase Hanna	0.63%	159	111		84
Chris Wood	1.84%	54	46		84
Christian Braunig	0.17%	588	181		40
Christian Jacobsen	0.74%	135	101		117
Christoffer Bring	0.26%	385	181		134
Clay Seeber	0.18%	556	301		126
Clement Guichard	0.39%	256	111		16
Clement Sordet	2.26%	44	36		84
Cooper Musselman	1.16%	86	56		24
Corey Shaun	0.65%	154	126		16
Cormac Sharvin	0.23%	435	141		139
Dan Erickson	0.66%	152	101		7
Daniel Berna Manzanares	0.10%	1000	301		84
Daniel Gale	0.68%	147	81		7
David Horsey	2.03%	49	51	0.10%	7	-0.1	Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
Deon Germishuys	0.81%	123	81		40
Dermot Mcelroy	0.58%	172			134
Dominic Clemons	0.03%	3333	161		102
Eduard Rousaud	0.25%	400	141		84
Emilio Cuartero Blanco	0.19%	526	141		59
Emilio Hernandez Lirola	0.10%	1000	226		84
Fabius Will Bradhering	0.11%	909			59
Filip Mruzek	0.50%	200	101		7
Fiorino Clerici	0.05%	2000	301		40
Frank Kennedy	1.20%	83	91	0.10%	24	-0.1	Spreadex: 90/1, 6pl, 1/5
George Bloor	0.42%	238	126		117
Gerard Piris Mateu	0.04%	2500	176		102
Gordan Brixi	0.05%	2000	301		117
Haydn Barron	1.22%	82	46		40
Henric Sturehed	0.37%	270	181		84
Hurly Long	0.46%	217	126		84
Jack Floydd	0.32%	313	151		152
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.66%	152	126		40
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa	0.86%	116	111		59
James Allan	0.17%	588	141		40
James Meyer De Beco	0.75%	133	81		134
James Sugrue	0.17%	588	176		4
Jamie Rutherford	1.44%	69	71		4
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.80%	125	91		16
Javier Calles Roman	0.59%	169	101		59
Jean Bekirian	0.86%	116	86		40
Jerry Ji	0.40%	250	161		84
Jhared Hack	1.45%	69	61		40
Jiri Zuska	0.62%	161	126		24
Joel Moscatel	0.77%	130	71		126
John Axelsen	0.60%	167	141		152
John Gough	0.46%	217	126		84
John-Ross Galbraith	0.48%	208	151		7
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	1.26%	79	61		126
Joseba Torres	1.14%	88	151	0.50%	24	-0.5	Star Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Josep Maria Serra Busquet	0.06%	1667	301		24
Joseph Pagdin	0.43%	233	141		24
Juan Salama	0.77%	130	91		126
Julien Brun	1.53%	65	71	0.10%	16	-0.1	Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Julien Quesne	0.75%	133	151	0.10%	59	-0.1	Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Julien Sale	0.87%	115	61		102
Justin Harding	0.56%	179	71		7
Kieran Vincent	1.27%	79	36		59
Kris Kim	0.25%	400	181		40
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.06%	1667	161		59
Lars Van Der Vight	0.86%	116	56		40
Lars Van Meijel	0.64%	156	46		16
Lauri Ruuska	0.53%	189			16
Lenny Koch	0.01%	10000	301		102
Liam Johnston	0.22%	455	126		59
Liam Nolan	0.87%	115	71		40
Linus Lang	0.21%	476	181		59
Lorenzo Scalise	0.84%	119	81		40
Lucas Vacarisas	0.37%	270	151		102
Ludovico Addabbo	0.33%	303	151		59
M.J. Viljoen	0.53%	189	101		126
Manuel Morugan	0.15%	667	176		59
Marc Hammer	0.26%	385	151		84
Mark Power	1.08%	93	71		3
Martin Eriksson	0.44%	227	126		147
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon	1.02%	98	91		59
Matias Honkala	0.48%	208	151		139
Matt Gilchrest	0.07%	1429	181		24
Matteo Cristoni	0.76%	132	81		7
Matthis Besard	0.80%	125	56		24
Max Kennedy	0.72%	139	71		24
Maxence Giboudot	1.25%	80	56		59
Maximilian Franck	0.01%	10000			139
Michael Hirmer	0.89%	112	81		117
Nikhil Rama	0.98%	102	126	0.20%	139	-0.2	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nikolas Tyminski	0.03%	3333	301		134
Ollie Jacobsson	0.17%	588	181		139
Oskari Nikku	0.33%	303	181		40
Pablo Ereno Perez	2.64%	38	31		24
Pedro Figueiredo	2.00%	50	46		1
Pedro Marin Santander	0.02%	5000	301		84
Pedro Oriol	0.27%	370	151		155
Pep Angles	0.15%	667	176		84
Philipp Katich	0.46%	217	101		126
Pierre Pineau	0.50%	200	141		59
Quinnton Croker	0.50%	200	141		24
Robert Dinwiddie	0.26%	385			117
Robert Foley	0.27%	370	126		134
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.55%	182	91		40
Ronan Kleu	1.29%	78	61		59
Ronan Mullarney	0.36%	278	141		126
Rory Franssen	0.35%	286	161		59
Ruben Lafuente Montesa	0.10%	1000	301		102
Ruben Pardo	0.01%	10000			152
Ryan Lumsden	0.82%	122	86		117
Ryan Van Velzen	1.86%	54	61	0.20%	1	4.2	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
Sam Hutsby	0.80%	125	81		102
Sam Jones	0.64%	156	61		150
Santiago Tarrio	0.77%	130	61		24
Saptak Talwar	1.08%	93	91		24
Scott Fernandez	0.15%	667	181		139
Sebastian Petersen	0.29%	345	126		147
Sebastien Gros	0.23%	435	176		102
Soren Broholt Lind	0.43%	233	301	0.10%	117	-0.1	Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Steven Brown	0.34%	294	151		59
Tadeas Tetak	0.82%	122	101		102
Tiger Christensen	0.43%	233	91		102
Toby Hunt	0.35%	286	126		59
Tom Lewis	2.05%	49	41		59
Tom Sloman	0.22%	455			40
Tomas Bessa	0.44%	227	151		155
Tomas Gouveia	0.96%	104	81		102
Tyko Tuohimaa	0.05%	2000	301		126
Veer Ahlawat	1.12%	89	86		16
Victor Bjorlow	0.18%	556	161		84
Wil Besseling	0.75%	133	111		24
Wilco Nienaber	1.18%	85	36		59
Will Enefer	2.19%	46	36		24
Will Porter	0.48%	208	91		102
William Vold	0.09%	1111	301		147
Wouter De Vries	0.47%	213	81		84

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jhared Hack	2.68%	37	61	1.10%	16	-2	Bet365: 60/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Canon Claycomb	1.55%	65	91	0.50%	121	-2	Bet365: 90/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Joseba Torres	0.90%	111	276	0.50%	80	-2	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Joseba Torres	1.14%	88	151	0.50%	24	-1	Star Sports: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Ryan Van Velzen	1.86%	54	61	0.20%	1	21	Spreadex: 60/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Nikhil Rama	0.98%	102	126	0.20%	139	-1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Callan Barrow	0.87%	115	141	0.20%	84		Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: David Horsey	2.03%	49	51	0.10%	7		Spreadex: 50/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Julien Brun	1.53%	65	71	0.10%	16		Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.