Simulation Results: Challenge de Espana

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Albin Bergstrom 0.86% 116 151 0.20% 47 -0.2 QuinnBet: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Alejandro Aguilera 0.26% 385 251 85
Alejandro Canizares 0.07% 1429 301 78
Alex Maguire 0.26% 385 251 55
Alexander Herrmann 0.03% 3333 501 133
Alfie Plant 0.34% 294 176 69
Alfonso Buendia 0.00% 10000 1001 99
Alvaro Quiros 0.52% 192 201 85
Anders Emil Ejlersen 0.02% 5000 501 133
Andoni Etchenique 0.03% 3333 351 39
Anton Albers 0.41% 244 101 5
Anton Vazquez Muinos 0.00% 10000 1501 133
Aron Zemmer 0.45% 222 351 0.20% 30 -0.2 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ashley Chesters 0.66% 152 126 39
Aydan Verdonk 0.00% 10000 601 99
Aymeric Laussot 0.05% 2000 251 62
Barclay Brown 0.17% 588 201 142
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 1.51% 66 67 30
Ben Stow 0.29% 345 251 78
Benjamin Kedochim 0.05% 2000 501 154
Benjamin Rusch 0.34% 294 251 5
Borja Virto 2.55% 39 29 78
Bradley Bawden 0.09% 1111 401 145
Brandon Kewalramani 0.03% 3333 501 85
Callan Barrow 0.64% 156 71 121
Calum Fyfe 0.51% 196 101 39
Carlos Pigem 0.09% 1111 201 51
Casper Simberg 0.03% 3333 401 142
Cedric Gugler 0.11% 909 751 30
Chase Hanna 1.79% 56 81 0.60% 30 -0.6 William Hill: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christian Jacobsen 0.26% 385 201 11
Christofer Rahm 0.21% 476 1001 0.10% 139 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Christoffer Bring 2.40% 42 41 85
Clement Charmasson 0.29% 345 351 1
Craig Howie 0.88% 114 126 0.10% 99 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Curtis Knipes 0.01% 10000 401 78
Damien Perrier 0.10% 1000 301 99
Daniel Rodrigues 0.86% 116 81 65
David Boote 0.02% 5000 401 51
David Borda 0.22% 455 251 55
David Nyfjall 0.35% 286 251 78
Dermot Mcelroy 0.21% 476 301 145
Eduard Rousaud 0.14% 714 251 113
Emilio Cuartero Blanco 0.07% 1429 401 62
Enrico Di Nitto 0.03% 3333 601 51
Euan Walker 2.62% 38 41 0.20% 3 0.7 Spreadex: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Felix Mory 3.09% 32 29 99
Filippo Celli 5.91% 17 21 1.20% 85 -1.2 Bet365: 20/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gabriel Morgan 0.03% 3333 751 85
Gary King 0.02% 5000 1501 130
George Bloor 1.48% 68 56 25
George Mason 0.12% 833 251 99
Graeme Robertson 0.19% 526 251 20
Gudmundur Kristjansson 0.04% 2500 301 47
Haraldur Magnus 0.38% 263 201 69
Herman Wibe Sekne 1.13% 88 81 99
Hugo Townsend 0.28% 357 176 51
Hurly Long 0.57% 175 126 5
Jack Davidson 1.01% 99 301 0.70% 20 -0.7 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Floydd 0.04% 2500 351 99
Jack Madden 0.17% 588 501 113
Jack Mcdonald 0.36% 278 101 55
James Allan 0.24% 417 176 85
James Ashfield 1.23% 81 51 121
James Meyer De Beco 0.31% 323 201 20
Javier Sainz 0.25% 400 151 69
Jens Kristian Thysted 0.17% 588 501 25
Jeppe Kristian Andersen 1.85% 54 34 15
Jeremy Freiburghaus 0.74% 135 201 0.20% 30 -0.2 QuinnBet: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jesper Sandborg 0.69% 145 151 20
Jiri Zuska 0.06% 1667 501 8
Joachim B. Hansen 0.00% 10000 1251 55
John Axelsen 1.04% 96 101 0.10% 130 -0.1 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
John Gough 0.12% 833 351 55
Jonas Blixt 0.57% 175 101 121
Jonathan Caldwell 0.18% 556 301 11
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 0.50% 200 301 0.20% 113 -0.2 Skybet: 300/1, 6pl, 1/5
Joseba Torres 1.91% 52 101 0.90% 25 -0.9 William Hill: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joshua Berry 2.46% 41 26 65
Jovan Rebula 0.96% 104 126 0.20% 39 -0.2 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Juan Salama 0.00% 10000 751 121
Julian Perico 1.27% 79 151 0.60% 99 -0.6 Skybet: 150/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kalle Samooja 1.81% 55 67 0.30% 85 -0.3 Spreadex: 66/1, 6pl, 1/5
Kim Koivu 0.16% 625 301 8
Kris Kim 0.00% 10000 301 152
Lars Van Meijel 0.83% 120 56 78
Lauri Ruuska 1.45% 69 101 0.50% 30 -0.5 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lee Slattery 0.32% 313 101 133
Liam Johnston 0.01% 10000 601 130
Liam Nolan 0.38% 263 161 113
Lorenzo Scalise 1.51% 66 101 0.50% 30 -0.5 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Luca Cianchetti 0.01% 10000 501 151
Lucas Vacarisas 0.30% 333 176 47
Luis Masaveu 6.14% 16 17 0.30% 3 0.45 Bet365: 16/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marc Hammer 0.42% 238 276 0.10% 65 -0.1 Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Marc Warren 0.01% 10000 401 77
Mark Power 0.37% 270 126 25
Markus Luoma 0.00% 10000 601 85
Martin Simonsen 1.42% 70 101 0.40% 113 -0.4 Ladbrokes: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Mateusz Gradecki 0.01% 10000 1001 139
Matt Oshrine 0.07% 1429 301 69
Matt Sharpstene 0.04% 2500 501 150
Max Kennedy 1.11% 90 101 0.10% 85 -0.1 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maxence Giboudot 0.57% 175 126 85
Maximilian Herrmann 0.00% 10000 501 99
Maximilian Schmitt 0.24% 417 176 69
Michael Hirmer 0.32% 313 81 99
Michele Ortolani 0.22% 455 276 30
Nathan Legendre 0.03% 3333 601 133
Nick Bachem 1.07% 93 126 0.30% 145 -0.3 Ladbrokes: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nick Mccarthy 0.02% 5000 301 121
Nikhil Rama 0.29% 345 151 20
Niklas Regner 0.02% 5000 301 145
Nikolas Tyminski 0.00% 10000 142
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 1.77% 56 41 15
Oliver Farr 0.04% 2500 201 76
Oliver Gillberg 0.31% 323 101 8
Oliver Jacobsson 0.02% 5000 301 85
Olly Huggins 0.37% 270 161 121
Pablo Alperi Lopez 0.00% 10000 176 154
Pedro Figueiredo 3.73% 27 41 1.30% 30 -1.3 Spreadex: 40/1, 6pl, 1/5
Pep Angles 0.11% 909 101 145
Per Langfors 1.68% 60 51 11
Peter Launer Baek 0.55% 182 81 74
Philipp Katich 0.10% 1000 151 39
Pol Bech 0.01% 10000 501 99
Quim Vidal 1.22% 82 41 25
Renato Paratore 4.38% 23 17 15
Ricardo Santos 0.34% 294 201 145
Rikard Karlberg 1.58% 63 71 0.20% 113 -0.2 Spreadex: 70/1, 6pl, 1/5
Robin Petersson 0.15% 667 501 11
Robin Roussel 0.02% 5000 501 154
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 3.00% 33 41 0.60% 62 -0.6 Bet365: 40/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rocco Repetto 1.47% 68 56 78
Romain Wattel 0.13% 769 301 121
Ronan Kleu 0.39% 256 126 85
Ryan Evans 0.02% 5000 401 99
Sam Locke 0.06% 1667 501 47
Saptak Talwar 0.28% 357 251 39
Sebastian Friedrichsen 2.14% 47 56 0.40% 113 -0.4 Bet365: 55/1, 5pl, 1/4
Soren Broholt Lind 0.01% 10000 501 99
Stuart Manley 0.38% 263 301 65
Tim Tillmanns 0.27% 370 201 121
Tobias Jonsson 0.59% 169 126 39
Toby Tree 0.01% 10000 501 121
Tom Lewis 1.27% 79 101 0.30% 133 -0.3 William Hill: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tom Shadbolt 0.10% 1000 251 15
Tomas Gouveia 0.76% 132 81 39
Velten Meyer 0.10% 1000 251 113
Victor Garcia Broto 0.07% 1429 501 153
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.61% 164 101 2
Victor Pastor 0.39% 256 201 15
Vince Van Veen 0.16% 625 201 55
Will Enefer 1.20% 83 101 0.20% 75 -0.2 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Will Hopkins 0.94% 106 126 0.10% 85 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Yente Van Doren 0.00% 10000 351 139

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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