Simulation Results: English Open

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Blomme	1.46%	68	81	0.20%	84	-0.2	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
Albert Boneta	0.78%	128	101		147
Alejandro Aguilera	0.02%	5000	1251		139
Alex Goff	2.28%	44	41		41
Alexander Knappe	0.31%	323	276		5
Alfie Plant	0.53%	189	126		112
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	1.61%	62	56		151
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.15%	667	501		32
Andres German Gallegos	0.16%	625	501		112
Andrew Wilson	1.24%	81	51		84
Anton Albers	0.85%	118	91		23
Asier Aguirre	0.08%	1250	751		99
Baard Skogen	0.90%	111	67		37
Bailey Gill	0.13%	769	401		112
Barclay Brown	0.72%	139	67		3
Ben Robinson	0.00%	10000			143
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.67%	149	141		57
Benjamin Hebert	0.60%	167	81		63
Benjamin Rusch	0.27%	370	301		143
Bjorn Akesson	0.60%	167	151		12
Borja Virto	0.84%	119	81		128
Bradley Bawden	0.51%	196	126		37
Bryce Easton	1.12%	89	51		32
Callum Farr	1.06%	94	67		75
Callum Tarren	1.10%	91	51		75
Calum Fyfe	1.84%	54	46		63
Canon Claycomb	0.37%	270	251		32
Charles Huntzinger	1.09%	92	81		37
Charlie Forster	1.29%	78	56		99
Chase Hanna	0.68%	147	126		112
Christofer Blomstrand	1.04%	96	81		12
Christofer Rahm	0.13%	769	501		18
Christoffer Bring	0.03%	3333	1251		32
Clement Guichard	0.21%	476	351		61
Clement Sordet	1.20%	83	51		18
Conor Gough	0.04%	2500	601		84
Conor Purcell	0.23%	435	201		112
Corey Shaun	0.18%	556	501		112
Cormac Sharvin	0.02%	5000	1001		99
Dan Erickson	0.99%	101	81		128
Daniel Gale	0.44%	227	161		41
David Langley	0.09%	1111	351		134
Deon Germishuys	0.94%	106	56		84
Dominic Clemons	0.00%	10000	1501		150
Dominic Foos	0.71%	141	151		7
Eduard Rousaud	0.12%	833	501		56
Filip Mruzek	1.10%	91	51		58
Fiorino Clerici	0.01%	10000	1501		121
Frank Kennedy	0.90%	111	111		30
Gary Hurley	0.62%	161	151		107
George Bloor	0.51%	196	101		47
Graeme Robertson	0.06%	1667	501		23
Gregor Graham	0.52%	192	161		84
Haider Hussain	0.04%	2500	1001		134
Haraldur Magnus	0.47%	213	351	0.20%	121	-0.2	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Harvey Byers	0.01%	10000	1001		139
Haydn Barron	2.18%	46	34		23
Hunter Logan	0.19%	526	351		7
Jack Yule	0.09%	1111	351		50
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.23%	435	401		151
Jake Mcgoldrick	0.36%	278	251		84
James Meyer De Beco	0.70%	143	161	0.10%	47	-0.1	Bet365: 160/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Sugrue	0.08%	1250	501		107
Jamie Rutherford	1.36%	74	51		99
Jannik De Bruyn	1.16%	86	67		12
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.28%	357	351		58
Javier Calles Roman	0.22%	455	351		50
Jeppe Kristian Andersen	1.00%	100	81		151
Jhared Hack	3.17%	32	46	1.00%	5	2.0625	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
Joel Moscatel	0.49%	204	161		62
John Catlin	1.58%	63	41		1
John Gough	0.29%	345	251		32
John-Ross Galbraith	0.10%	1000	501		139
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.38%	263	161		41
Jordan Wrisdale	0.23%	435	251		132
Josep Maria Serra	0.01%	10000	1501		99
Joseph Pagdin	0.19%	526	351		84
Josh Hilleard	0.42%	238	201		107
Julian Perico	2.27%	44	29		149
Justin Harding	1.04%	96	67		23
Justin Walters	1.56%	64	56		7
Kevin Christopher Jegers	0.07%	1429	1251
Kim Koivu	0.13%	769	501		151
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.00%	10000	1251		63
Kristian Krogh Johannessen	1.02%	98	51		2
Lars Van Meijel	0.83%	120	67		75
Lenny Koch	0.00%	10000	4001		143
Leon Acikalin	0.00%	10000	2501		121
Liam Johnston	0.12%	833	501		84
Liam Nolan	1.03%	97	91		136
Louis Albertse	1.68%	60	34		41
Lucas Augustsson	1.18%	85	276	0.80%	75	-0.8	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
M.J. Daffue	2.25%	44	23		7
M.J. Viljoen	0.28%	357	251		75
Marc Hammer	0.63%	159	151		52
Marc Warren	1.69%	59	41		23
Mark Power	0.64%	156	101		47
Markus Varjun	0.14%	714	1251	0.10%	136	-0.1	Bet365: 1250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Eriksson	0.09%	1111	501		99
Martin Vorster	1.25%	80	67
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon	0.47%	213	151		60
Matthew Southgate	2.14%	47	34		107
Matthis Besard	0.74%	135	91		18
Max Bengtsson	0.24%	417			139
Max Kennedy	0.52%	192	126		75
Maxence Giboudot	1.40%	71	67		75
Maximilian Kieffer	1.10%	91	71		84
Maxwell Martin	0.04%	2500	1001		23
Michael Hirmer	0.33%	303	401	0.10%	63	-0.1	Bet365: 400/1, 5pl, 1/4
Michal Bargenda	0.00%	10000	4001		143
Mike Toorop	0.11%	909	351		52
Morgan Jackson	0.00%	10000	1501		136
Nathan Legendre	0.14%	714	501		107
Nick Bachem	0.13%	769	601		84
Nick Carlson	0.73%	137	141		151
Niklas Regner	0.26%	385	401		63
Nikolas Tyminski	0.00%	10000	3001		132
Oskari Nikku	0.06%	1667	1251		63
Pablo Ereno	3.29%	30	19		41
Palmer Jackson	0.25%	400	301		128
Pedro Figueiredo	1.89%	53	34		18
Per Langfors	0.71%	141	101		3
Pierre Pineau	0.37%	270	301		30
Quinnton Croker	0.15%	667	351		84
Robert Foley	0.01%	10000	1001		63
Robert Moran	0.13%	769	501		121
Robin Petersson	0.36%	278	201		52
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.58%	172	141		84
Robin Williams	1.54%	65	51		63
Ronan Kleu	0.52%	192	226	0.10%	41	-0.1	Bet365: 225/1, 5pl, 1/4
Rory Franssen	0.06%	1667	751		52
Ryan Brooks	1.05%	95	67		84
Ryan Lumsden	0.87%	115	126	0.10%	63	-0.1	Bet365: 125/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Van Velzen	1.51%	66	51		99
Sam Hutsby	0.62%	161	176	0.10%	112	-0.1	Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sam Jones	0.31%	323	151		23
Sam Murphy	0.05%	2000	351		121
Santiago Tarrio	0.75%	133	91		84
Saptak Talwar	0.59%	169	201	0.10%	12	-0.1	Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Simon Forsstrom	0.77%	130	101		12
Soren Broholt Lind	0.08%	1250	751		121
Steven Brown	0.36%	278	201		99
Tadeas Tetak	1.25%	80	67		7
Tobias Eden	0.57%	175	176		112
Toby Hunt	0.15%	667	251		63
Tom Lewis	0.96%	104	71		12
Tom Sloman	0.32%	313	251		121
Tyko Tuohimaa	0.00%	10000	2501		63
Veer Ahlawat	1.50%	67	67		112
Victor Bjorlow	0.15%	667	501		84
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.17%	588	501		63
Wilco Nienaber	1.04%	96	41		37
Will Enefer	1.67%	60	34		18
Will Hopkins	0.22%	455	351		128
William Vold	0.00%	10000	3001		147
Wouter De Vries	0.34%	294	226		75

Player	TT Win	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
Adam Blomme	1.39%	72	71		30
Albert Boneta	0.95%	105	101		96
Alejandro Aguilera	0.10%	1000	351		134
Alex Goff	1.54%	65	46		9
Alexander Knappe	0.54%	185	151		9
Alfie Plant	0.62%	161	101		73
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	1.15%	87	56		51
Anders Emil Ejlersen	0.30%	333	201		3
Andres German Gallegos	0.30%	333	201		96
Andrew Wilson	0.99%	101	67		96
Anton Albers	0.74%	135	101		116
Asier Aguirre	0.24%	417	251		139
Baard Skogen	0.95%	105	81		51
Bailey Gill	0.36%	278	201		116
Barclay Brown	0.82%	122	81		73
Ben Robinson	0.02%	5000			146
Benjamin Follett-Smith	0.70%	143	101		22
Benjamin Hebert	0.64%	156	81		22
Benjamin Rusch	0.48%	208	151		134
Bjorn Akesson	0.64%	156	101		116
Borja Virto	0.91%	110	81		30
Bradley Bawden	0.72%	139	101		30
Bryce Easton	0.95%	105	67		51
Callum Farr	1.07%	93	81		73
Callum Tarren	0.90%	111	56		51
Calum Fyfe	1.24%	81	67		116
Canon Claycomb	0.46%	217	151		51
Charles Huntzinger	1.02%	98	81		116
Charlie Forster	1.15%	87	61		131
Chase Hanna	0.66%	152	101		73
Christofer Blomstrand	0.89%	112	81		30
Christofer Rahm	0.34%	294	201		51
Christoffer Bring	0.12%	833	351		30
Clement Guichard	0.41%	244	201		30
Clement Sordet	1.01%	99	67		30
Conor Gough	0.18%	556	251		51
Conor Purcell	0.43%	233	151		73
Corey Shaun	0.28%	357	201		116
Cormac Sharvin	0.10%	1000	251		73
Dan Erickson	1.03%	97	81		96
Daniel Gale	0.52%	192	101		30
David Langley	0.30%	333	201		139
Deon Germishuys	0.88%	114	67		22
Dominic Clemons	0.02%	5000	401		155
Dominic Foos	0.77%	130	71		9
Eduard Rousaud	0.30%	333	201		51
Filip Mruzek	1.11%	90	67		9
Fiorino Clerici	0.08%	1250	401		134
Frank Kennedy	0.81%	123	91		9
Gary Hurley	0.61%	164	101		73
George Bloor	0.71%	141	101		1
Graeme Robertson	0.24%	417	201		2
Gregor Graham	0.56%	179	101		116
Haider Hussain	0.11%	909	351		73
Haraldur Magnus	0.67%	149	151		116
Harvey Byers	0.08%	1250	351		139
Haydn Barron	1.69%	59	51		51
Hunter Logan	0.33%	303	201		9
Jack Yule	0.22%	455	201		116
Jacob Worm Agerschou	0.38%	263	201		144
Jake Mcgoldrick	0.57%	175	151		116
James Meyer De Beco	0.68%	147	101		30
James Sugrue	0.21%	476	251		96
Jamie Rutherford	1.01%	99	67		73
Jannik De Bruyn	0.96%	104	81		30
Javier Barcos Garbayo	0.48%	208	201		73
Javier Calles Roman	0.43%	233	201		3
Jeppe Kristian Andersen	0.85%	118	81		73
Jhared Hack	2.06%	49	46		3
Joel Moscatel	0.67%	149	101		9
John Catlin	1.13%	88	51		9
John Gough	0.44%	227	151		96
John-Ross Galbraith	0.22%	455	201		153
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen	0.63%	159	101		9
Jordan Wrisdale	0.32%	313	151		146
Josep Maria Serra	0.09%	1111	401		96
Joseph Pagdin	0.39%	256	201		73
Josh Hilleard	0.56%	179	151		134
Julian Perico	1.48%	68	41		146
Justin Harding	1.08%	93	81		30
Justin Walters	1.35%	74	67		51
Kim Koivu	0.24%	417	201		154
Kristian Hjort Bressum	0.05%	2000	351		30
Kristian Krogh Johannessen	0.88%	114	67		30
Lars Van Meijel	0.96%	104	81		139
Lenny Koch	0.01%	10000	451		152
Leon Acikalin	0.04%	2500	451		131
Liam Johnston	0.33%	303	201		116
Liam Nolan	0.87%	115	101		146
Louis Albertse	1.52%	66	51		73
Lucas Augustsson	0.93%	108	141	0.20%	73	-0.2	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
M.J. Daffue	1.75%	57	41		30
M.J. Viljoen	0.40%	250	151		51
Marc Hammer	0.66%	152	101		22
Marc Warren	1.15%	87	51		96
Mark Power	0.68%	147	101		30
Markus Varjun	0.34%	294	351	0.10%	134	-0.1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Martin Eriksson	0.24%	417	251		51
Martin Vorster	1.14%	88	81
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon	0.51%	196	101		51
Matthew Southgate	1.66%	60	46		30
Matthis Besard	0.81%	123	101		3
Mattias Varjun	0.10%	1000			96
Max Bengtsson	0.40%	250			146
Max Kennedy	0.62%	161	101		96
Maxence Giboudot	1.07%	93	81		73
Maximilian Kieffer	1.08%	93	81		73
Maxwell Martin	0.15%	667	251		73
Michael Hirmer	0.51%	196	161		96
Michal Bargenda	0.01%	10000	451		144
Mike Toorop	0.22%	455	151		30
Morgan Jackson	0.03%	3333	401		51
Nathan Legendre	0.28%	357	201		96
Nick Bachem	0.31%	323	226		51
Nick Carlson	0.89%	112	101		9
Niklas Regner	0.49%	204	201		96
Nikolas Tyminski	0.04%	2500	451		51
Oskari Nikku	0.13%	769	351		116
Pablo Ereno	2.14%	47	34		51
Palmer Jackson	0.51%	196	151		116
Pedro Figueiredo	1.28%	78	46		51
Per Langfors	0.79%	127	101		3
Pierre Pineau	0.47%	213	151		30
Quinnton Croker	0.29%	345	151		30
Robert Foley	0.11%	909	351		51
Robert Moran	0.28%	357	201		30
Robin Petersson	0.55%	182	151		9
Robin Sciot-Siegrist	0.77%	130	101		22
Robin Williams	1.06%	94	51		96
Ronan Kleu	0.64%	156	111		51
Rory Franssen	0.21%	476	251		73
Ryan Brooks	1.09%	92	81		116
Ryan Lumsden	0.84%	119	81		73
Ryan Van Velzen	1.12%	89	51		51
Sam Hutsby	0.63%	159	101		73
Sam Jones	0.57%	175	101		30
Sam Murphy	0.12%	833	201		116
Santiago Tarrio	0.94%	106	101		96
Saptak Talwar	0.65%	154	111		22
Simon Forsstrom	0.87%	115	101		73
Soren Broholt Lind	0.18%	556	251		139
Steven Brown	0.45%	222	151		96
Tadeas Tetak	1.03%	97	81		3
Tobias Eden	0.72%	139	101		96
Toby Hunt	0.40%	250	151		96
Tom Lewis	0.98%	102	81		22
Tom Sloman	0.56%	179	151		51
Tyko Tuohimaa	0.04%	2500	451		9
Veer Ahlawat	1.36%	74	81	0.10%	96	-0.1	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
Victor Bjorlow	0.33%	303	201		73
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen	0.34%	294	201		22
Wilco Nienaber	0.86%	116	36		73
Will Enefer	1.19%	84	51		9
Will Hopkins	0.44%	227	201		96
William Vold	0.01%	10000	451		146
Wouter De Vries	0.44%	227	151		131

Player	Win %	TT Odds	Best Odds	Kelly	Result	P/L	E/W Play
WIN: Jhared Hack	3.17%	32	46	1.00%	5	4.125	Bet365: 45/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Lucas Augustsson	1.18%	85	276	0.80%	75	-2	Bet365: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
WIN: Adam Blomme	1.46%	68	81	0.20%	84	-2	Bet365: 80/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Lucas Augustsson	0.93%	108	141	0.20%	73	-1	Bet365: 140/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL: Veer Ahlawat	1.36%	74	81	0.10%	96	-1	BetMGM: 80/1, 6pl, 1/5
FRL: Markus Varjun	0.34%	294	351	0.10%	134	-1	Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
FRL:
FRL:
FRL:

The data in the above table is as follows:

• Player - the players in the field at the time of the latest update
• TT Win - our estimated probability of the player winning this market
• TT Odds - The TT Win value expressed in decimal odds format
• Best Odds - the best odds available on the player to win this market as indicated on Oddschecker
• Kelly - The Kelly criterion as a measure of the 'edge' in each player's odds - the Kelly criterion calculates the optimal percentage of bankroll to bet on a player
• Result - The player's finishing position - this is added when this simulation is archived
• P/L - The profit on the advised play (see 'E/W Play' column) - this is added when this simulation is archived
• E/W Play - The advised each-way play at the Kelly stakes

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e², where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.