Simulation Results: The Dutch Futures

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Wallin 1.12% 89 34 105
Albert Eckhardt 0.05% 2000 2501 152
Albin Bergstrom 1.11% 90 67 36
Alejandro Aguilera 0.03% 3333 2001 72
Alex Maguire 0.41% 244 151 105
Alexander Settemsdal 0.48% 208 151 16
Alfie Plant 1.14% 88 56 94
Algot Kleen 0.80% 125 71 72
Alvaro Hernandez Cabezuela 0.24% 417 301 140
Alvaro Quiros 0.27% 370 351 147
Andoni Etchenique 0.46% 217 201 9
Andrew Garner 0.01% 10000 4001 141
Anton Albers 0.77% 130 71 9
Aron Zemmer 0.67% 149 151 29
Asier Aguirre Izcue 0.05% 2000 751 119
Aydan Verdonk 0.01% 10000 2501 132
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 0.65% 154 91 55
Bastien Amat 0.45% 222 201 41
Ben Brown 0.01% 10000 2001 83
Ben Sigel 0.10% 1000 1501 105
Benjamin Follett-Smith 0.51% 196 251 0.10% 105 -0.1 Spreadex: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Benjamin Kedochim 0.08% 1250 1001 59
Bob Van Der Voort 0.02% 5000 1501 83
Borja Virto 0.69% 145 81 23
Bradley Bawden 0.39% 256 251 61
Brandon Kewalramani 0.29% 345 501 0.10% 105 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryce Easton 1.60% 63 34 94
Callan Barrow 0.44% 227 151 23
Callum Farr 1.38% 72 41 23
Calum Fyfe 0.84% 119 71 126
Cedric Gugler 0.29% 345 351 71
Chase Hanna 0.59% 169 151 5
Christian Jacobsen 0.28% 357 201 59
Christofer Blomstrand 0.49% 204 176 9
Christofer Rahm 0.13% 769 751 141
Christoffer Bring 0.46% 217 101 126
Clement Charmasson 0.97% 103 81 83
Craig Howie 1.09% 92 101 0.10% 63 -0.1 Bet365: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daan Huizing 1.31% 76 51 61
Damien Perrier 0.35% 286 501 0.20% 83 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Mulligan 0.02% 5000 3001 72
Daniel Van Tonder 0.97% 103 41 9
Daniel Young 2.42% 41 21 3
Dario Antonisse 0.03% 3333 501 126
David Borda 0.24% 417 501 132
David Horsey 2.06% 49 46 105
David Langley 0.64% 156 105
David Law 3.81% 26 17 47
David Lundgren 0.14% 714 501 150
Dermot Mcelroy 0.20% 500 501 55
Enrico Di Nitto 0.10% 1000 1501 105
Euan Walker 2.09% 48 26 5
Felix Mory 1.54% 65 46 41
Filip Mruzek 0.55% 182 71 119
Filippo Celli 1.96% 51 29 1
Flavio Michetti 0.04% 2500 1501 141
Frank Kennedy 0.27% 370 601 0.10% 119 -0.1 Spreadex: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gabriel Morgan 0.47% 213 226 141
Gary King 0.08% 1250 1501
George Bloor 0.61% 164 126 105
Harvey Byers 0.01% 10000 3001 94
Hayden Hopewell 0.16% 625 601 94
Hurly Long 1.16% 86 81 2
Jack Davidson 0.42% 238 176 94
Jack Floydd 0.08% 1250 1001 94
Jack Madden 0.05% 2000 2001 47
Jack Mcdonald 1.37% 73 41 50
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa 0.37% 270 126 119
James Meyer De Beco 0.66% 152 126 5
James Morrison 0.92% 109 101 16
Jamie Rutherford 0.82% 122 91 23
Jens Fahrbring 0.58% 172 176 72
Jerry Ji 0.10% 1000 501 83
Jesper Sandborg 0.30% 333 251 67
Jiri Zuska 0.74% 135 126 126
Joachim B. Hansen 0.02% 5000 2001 47
John Axelsen 1.09% 92 67 63
John Gough 0.63% 159 81 36
John Murphy 0.03% 3333 2001 83
John-Ross Galbraith 0.07% 1429 132
Jonas Blixt 0.79% 127 126 94
Jonathan Caldwell 0.18% 556 501 29
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 1.24% 81 61 94
Jose Antonio Sintes Navarro 0.00% 10000 3001 145
Joshua Grenville-Wood 0.19% 526 751 0.10% 55 -0.1 Spreadex: 750/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jovan Rebula 0.61% 164 101 145
Julian Perico 1.22% 82 67 9
Julien Quesne 1.73% 58 46 16
Julien Sale 1.84% 54 41 16
Keanu Akina 0.08% 1250 1501 147
Kiet Van Der Weele 0.03% 3333 2001 126
Koen Kouwenaar 0.01% 10000 2001 126
Kris Kim 0.02% 5000 751 70
Lars Van Meijel 1.32% 76 34 83
Lauri Ruuska 0.27% 370 251 94
Liam Nolan 0.31% 323 176 36
Lorenzo Scalise 0.85% 118 91 29
Lucas Martin 0.00% 10000 3001 150
Lucas Vacarisas 0.59% 169 101 69
Lukas Nemecz 1.99% 50 36 29
Mads Viemose Larsen 0.00% 10000 1501 119
Marc Hammer 0.76% 132 101 41
Marco Florioli 0.00% 10000 2001 105
Mathieu Decottignies-Lafon 0.71% 141 101 66
Matt Oshrine 0.41% 244 201 50
Matt Sharpstene 0.14% 714 501 83
Matthis Besard 1.32% 76 46 72
Matty Lamb 0.00% 10000 3001 153
Max Kennedy 0.69% 145 71 23
Maxence Giboudot 0.75% 133 91 41
Maxwell Martin 0.08% 1250 2001 105
Nathan Legendre 0.11% 909 601 16
Nevill Ruiter 0.01% 10000 1001 137
Nicholas Infanti 0.33% 303 501 0.10% 36 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nick Carlson 3.06% 33 29 41
Oihan Guillamoundeguy 3.43% 29 21 3
Oliver Wilson 0.78% 128 201 0.30% 50 -0.3 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Olly Huggins 0.06% 1667 1501 55
Oskari Nikku 0.00% 10000 1001 132
Palmer Jackson 0.56% 179 101 9
Paul Mcbride 0.18% 556 119
Pedro Figueiredo 1.41% 71 61 16
Piers Berrington 0.08% 1250 2001 67
Quim Vidal 0.81% 123 81 72
Renato Paratore 2.16% 46 34 8
Rhys Enoch 0.32% 313 201 72
Robert Moran 0.13% 769 1001 105
Robin Petersson 0.51% 196 151 41
Robin Sciot-Siegrist 1.86% 54 34 105
Ryan Evans 0.18% 556 1001 0.10% 132 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ryan Lumsden 1.19% 84 61 154
Sam Hutsby 0.52% 192 201 154
Sam Jones 0.59% 169 101 50
Sam Locke 0.18% 556 501 94
Sam Mullane 0.00% 10000 4001 105
Santiago Tarrio 0.43% 233 176 29
Saptak Talwar 0.61% 164 151 16
Sebastian Garcia 0.89% 112 276 0.50% 83 -0.5 QuinnBet: 275/1, 5pl, 1/4
Stefano Mazzoli 2.08% 48 29 9
Stuart Manley 0.68% 147 301 0.30% 63 -0.3 Bet365: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Thomas Georg Schmidt 0.01% 10000 251 119
Tiger Christensen 0.92% 109 67 50
Tobias Jonsson 1.07% 93 56 23
Tom Lewis 1.53% 65 51 29
Tomas Gouveia 0.38% 263 351 0.10% 83 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tyko Tuohimaa 0.00% 10000 4001 147
Victor Garcia Broto 0.04% 2500 2501 137
Victor H. Sidal Svendsen 0.62% 161 101 72
Victor Pastor 0.21% 476 601 94
Vince Van Veen 0.50% 200 126 72
Wil Besseling 1.05% 95 101 0.10% 72 -0.1 Spreadex: 100/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wilco Nienaber 1.30% 77 41 29
Will Enefer 1.31% 76 46 36
Will Hopkins 0.67% 149 126 72
Wouter De Vries 0.30% 333 201 83
Yente Van Doren 0.00% 10000 1501 137

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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