Simulation Results: Dormy Open

Player Win % TT Odds Best Odds Kelly Result P/L E/W Play
Adam Andersson 0.10% 1000 351 114
Adam Blomme 0.40% 250 351 0.10% 89 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Adam Wallin 1.09% 92 41 114
Adri Arnaus 2.39% 42 29 14
Albin Bergstrom 1.41% 71 56 65
Alexander Settemsdal 0.86% 116 126 0.10% 60 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Alfie Plant 1.20% 83 61 20
Algot Kleen 0.81% 123 67 125
Alvaro Quiros 0.22% 455 401 65
Anders Emil Ejlersen 0.06% 1667 2001 1
Andoni Etchenique 0.96% 104 111 0.10% 142 -0.1 PaddyPower: 110/1, 5pl, 1/4
Anton Albers 1.48% 68 41 12
Anton Karlsson 0.16% 625 101 65
Anton Mostrom 0.01% 10000 2501 63
Ashley Chesters 0.66% 152 126 89
Aydan Verdonk 0.03% 3333 3001 133
Bailey Gill 0.04% 2500 301 39
Barclay Brown 0.24% 417 501 54
Bard Bjornevik Skogen 0.85% 118 81 23
Ben Sigel 0.12% 833 2001 0.10% 114 -0.1 Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Ben Stow 0.58% 172 111 105
Benjamin Hjort 0.13% 769 501 65
Benjamin Kedochim 0.14% 714 1001 142
Bjorn Hellgren 1.46% 68 41 23
Borja Virto 1.22% 82 67 105
Bradley Bawden 0.48% 208 251 0.10% 27 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Brandon Kewalramani 0.35% 286 501 0.20% 65 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Bryce Easton 1.61% 62 41 27
Callan Barrow 0.86% 116 111 14
Calum Fyfe 0.84% 119 67 27
Chase Hanna 1.17% 85 67 27
Chris Paisley 0.32% 313 151 114
Christofer Rahm 0.14% 714 401 114
Christoffer Bring 0.53% 189 111 125
Christoffer Palsson 0.02% 5000 1001 89
Clement Charmasson 1.13% 88 91 27
Craig Howie 0.82% 122 126 114
Damien Perrier 0.38% 263 501 0.20% 89 -0.2 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Daniel Mulligan 0.04% 2500 3001 142
Daniel Van Tonder 2.41% 41 29 50
David Boote 0.30% 333 251 142
David Borda 0.22% 455 401 89
David Langley 0.66% 152 126 45
David Lundgren 0.10% 1000 351 105
David Nyfjall 0.62% 161 51 20
Dermot Mcelroy 0.29% 345 451 0.10% 125 -0.1 Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Enrico Di Nitto 0.19% 526 2001 0.10% 27 -0.1 Bet365: 2000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Erik Elgh 0.00% 10000 1501 125
Erik Ulvang 0.00% 10000 401 133
Euan Walker 3.47% 29 23 125
Fabius Will Bradhering 0.04% 2500 1501 89
Felix Mory 1.86% 54 51 20
Filip Fahlberg Johnsson 0.07% 1429 201 60
Filippo Celli 3.31% 30 23 45
Gabriel Morgan 0.46% 217 251 0.10% 137 -0.1 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gavin Hall 0.21% 476 601 125
George Bloor 0.72% 139 101 59
George Mason 0.26% 385 501 0.10% 54 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Gregor Graham 0.33% 303 226 79
Gudmundur Kristjansson 0.10% 1000 1001 54
Haraldur Magnus 0.58% 172 151 2
Harvey Byers 0.02% 5000 4001 137
Hayden Hopewell 0.30% 333 501 0.10% 23 -0.1 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Hugo Townsend 1.93% 52 34 27
J.C. Ritchie 3.46% 29 21 89
Jack Davidson 0.45% 222 226 27
Jack Floydd 0.11% 909 1501 27
Jack Madden 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 133 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jack Mcdonald 1.28% 78 34 27
Jacopo Vecchi Fossa 0.41% 244 176 65
James Allan 0.38% 263 251 89
James Ashfield 0.15% 667 501 105
James Morrison 1.64% 61 67 0.10% 89 -0.1 Skybet: 66/1, 5pl, 1/4
James Ross 0.09% 1111 751 89
Jamie Rutherford 1.48% 68 61 8
Javier Barcos Garbayo 0.20% 500 351 65
Javier Calles Roman 0.07% 1429 751 54
Javier Sainz 0.44% 227 151 54
Jens Fahrbring 0.63% 159 111
Jens Kristian Thysted 0.16% 625 501 142
Jeppe Kristian Andersen 1.58% 63 51 89
Jesper Hagborg Asp 0.69% 145 126 14
Jesper Sandborg 0.37% 270 251 65
Jiri Zuska 0.71% 141 126 89
Joachim B. Hansen 0.05% 2000 1001 60
John Gough 0.82% 122 71 4
John Murphy 0.05% 2000 2501
Jonas Blixt 0.81% 123 91 89
Jonathan Caldwell 0.54% 185 301 0.20% 105 -0.2 QuinnBet: 300/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jonathan Goth-Rasmussen 1.42% 70 61 4
Jose Antonio Sintes Navarro 0.00% 10000 4001 137
Joseba Torres 0.47% 213 501 0.30% 125 -0.3 Bet365: 500/1, 5pl, 1/4
Jovan Rebula 0.52% 192 111 45
Julian Perico 2.01% 50 41 27
Julien Quesne 2.38% 42 34 89
Julien Sale 2.29% 44 31 42
Kasper Nyland 0.41% 244 201 142
Keanu Akina 0.05% 2000 2001 65
Kiet Van Der Weele 0.03% 3333 3001 114
Kim Koivu 0.20% 500 201 79
Lauri Ruuska 0.33% 303 251 23
Liam Nolan 0.57% 175 101 89
Luca Cianchetti 0.16% 625 1001 0.10% 79 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Lucas Vacarisas 0.67% 149 111 14
Marc Hammer 1.01% 99 71 79
Marc Warren 0.95% 105 111 10
Mark Power 0.16% 625 201 65
Martin Eriksson 0.24% 417 401 65
Martin Simonsen 0.77% 130 111 65
Matt Sharpstene 0.21% 476 601 42
Matthis Besard 1.50% 67 41 50
Maximilian Schmitt 0.31% 323 451 0.10% 137 -0.1 Bet365: 450/1, 5pl, 1/4
Maximilien Sturdza 0.02% 5000 2501 105
Michal Bargenda 0.00% 10000 4001 149
Nathan Legendre 0.38% 263 251 79
Nick Carlson 3.22% 31 34 0.30% 152 -0.3 Bet365: 33/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nicolai Kristensen 0.34% 294 151 105
Nikhil Rama 0.46% 217 601 0.30% 79 -0.3 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Nikolas Tyminski 0.00% 10000 4001 154
Nisse Strom 0.00% 10000 1001 65
Oliver Gillberg 0.47% 213 141 125
Oliver Hundeboll Jorgensen 0.15% 667 226 114
Oliver Jacobsson 0.23% 435 251 45
Olly Huggins 0.15% 667 1001 0.10% 79 -0.1 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Per Langfors 0.58% 172 91 8
Peter Launer Baek 0.26% 385 251 105
Philipp Katich 0.35% 286 176 27
Piers Berrington 0.10% 1000 1501 39
Quentin Debove 0.39% 256 151 148
Rasmus Holmberg 0.10% 1000 501 149
Rasmus Rosin 0.13% 769 601 45
Renato Paratore 3.10% 32 21 65
Rikard Karlberg 0.17% 588 176 14
Robin Petersson 0.91% 110 126 0.10% 114 -0.1 Spreadex: 125/1, 6pl, 1/5
Rocco Repetto 1.39% 72 51 7
Romain Wattel 0.66% 152 126 65
Sam Jones 0.78% 128 111 6
Sam Locke 0.24% 417 601 0.10% 14 -0.1 Bet365: 600/1, 5pl, 1/4
Saptak Talwar 0.97% 103 91 79
Sebastian Garcia 1.07% 93 151 0.40% 79 -0.4 Bet365: 150/1, 5pl, 1/4
Sigurdur Arnar Gardarsson 0.03% 3333 1001 153
Stuart Manley 0.67% 149 251 0.30% 79 -0.3 Bet365: 250/1, 5pl, 1/4
Tim Tillmanns 0.35% 286 201 89
Tobias Eden 0.29% 345 226 42
Tobias Jonsson 1.53% 65 31 10
Toby Hunt 0.70% 143 201 0.20% 12 -0.2 Bet365: 200/1, 5pl, 1/4
Toby Tree 0.02% 5000 2501 39
Tom Shadbolt 0.35% 286 351 0.10% 50 -0.1 Bet365: 350/1, 5pl, 1/4
Velten Meyer 0.19% 526 351 50
Victor Garcia Broto 0.05% 2000 3001 137
Victor Pastor 0.31% 323 1001 0.20% 65 -0.2 Bet365: 1000/1, 5pl, 1/4
Viktor Nordwall 0.04% 2500 2001 133
Vince Van Veen 0.57% 175 176 3
Will Hopkins 0.78% 128 176 0.20% 64 -0.2 Bet365: 175/1, 5pl, 1/4
Wouter De Vries 0.44% 227 401 0.20% 149 -0.2 Spreadex: 400/1, 6pl, 1/5
Zan Luka Stirn 0.00% 10000 501 105

The data in the above table is as follows:

The Top3 Plays table highlights the three advised each-way plays in the win and FRL markets. Each play is of equal stake with a total of 6pts in both the win and FRL markets.

The TT Win Probabilities displayed above are the result of a Monte Carlo simulation of each round of a tournament, using individual player inputs and a probability distribution. This method is particularly useful in golf given the number of players in a tournament and the complex process within modelling player scores.

To determine the number of replications R, this is typically set at 10 / e2, where e is the relative error in the bias assessment (precision measure). With 100,000 replications, e falls to less than 1%, which is the target relative error.

This table will be populated with the simulation results as soon as there are sufficient win odds available to advise plays. The FRL probabilities and advised plays will not appear publication of tee-times for events with split rd1 tee-times.

While TT Win Probabilities will be provided for all markets available via the buttons above the table, each-way plays will only be advised for win and FRL markets.

TT Win Probabilities (including results) are available for all past events via the 'Archives' here.

Full P/L breakdown per market and per event since 2024 is available here.

Odds
This week's odds

Betfair: PGA Tour

Betfair: DP World Tour


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